MLB Bets 2026-08-14

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	780W–410L–0P	66%	-78.97 u	Last 14 days • 1190 settled
Grade A	19W–27L–0P	41%	-13.59 u
Grade B	759W–376L–0P	67%	-60.93 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3522W–2220L–8P	61%	-243.72 u	All-time • 5750 settled
Grade A	257W–205L–0P	56%	-12.80 u
Grade B	3263W–2008L–8P	62%	-226.49 u

108 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-13	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter H+R+RBI	Ben Rice	1.5	-126	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter H+R+RBI	Bobby Witt Jr.	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-137	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Garcia Jr.	1.5	-127	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter H+R+RBI	Pete Crow-Armstrong	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Adley Rutschman	0.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Brandon Lowe	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Franklin	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Daulton Varsho	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	-210	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Henry Davis	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Jared Triolo	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Nick Sogard	0.5	-185	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Richie Palacios	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Spencer Horwitz	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Taylor Walls	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Tyler O'Neill	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Batter Walks	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	K Prop	Michael King	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	K Prop	Peter Lambert	4.5	-149	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	K Prop	Shane Bieber	5.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Andrew Alvarez	2.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Clay Holmes	1.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Gerrit Cole	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Jackson Jobe	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Jake Bennett	2.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Pitcher Earned Run	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	Run Line	Pittsburgh Pirates	+1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-14	YRFI	YRFI	-	128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-13	K Prop	Walbert Urena	4.5	-130	-	WIN	+0.769	Walbert Ureña: 5.0 (line 4.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	556	55%	-26.90u	65	45%	-15.51u	262	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	488	58%	+12.46u	55	65%	+7.51u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	167	58%	+6.39u	13	85%	+6.46u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1929	74%	-48.11u	642	72%	-40.95u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	574	56%	-25.14u	109	55%	-8.49u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	414	60%	-11.86u	69	58%	-4.42u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	54	70%	-0.54u	8	50%	-2.38u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	3
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	6
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	123	47%	-14.65u	10	40%	-2.96u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	5	40%	-1.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	34	47%	-6.07u	15	33%	-6.22u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	593	52%	-58.09u	49	49%	-7.61u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 556, 14d N 65	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 488, 14d N 55	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 167, 14d N 13	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 25 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 25/25 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 54, 14d N 8	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 202 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 14 total candidate(s); season N 123, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 15	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 5 actionable / 139 total candidate(s); season N 593, 14d N 49	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 139 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 798 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 225 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 775 pitcher(s), 3426 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 583 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 25 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 28 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 28 roster team(s), 365 hitter(s) \| 25 SP matchup(s), 1289 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 365 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 28 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 28 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 22 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 342 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 14/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 21 line(s)/11 game(s); Outs 25 line(s)/13 game(s); Hits Allowed 20 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 24 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 74, fanatics 16
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2326 market side(s) checked \| 2326 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 11 game(s) fetched \| 11 with ML odds \| 11 with total odds \| 4 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 139 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 631 \| batter bats 387 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 55 \| batter pitch-type 583 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 194 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	+169	-182	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	-105	-114	-1.5 (+166)	1.5 (-203)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-144	+119	-1.5 (+118)	1.5 (-142)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	+128	-152	1.5 (-182)	-1.5 (+150)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: FanDuel \| RL: FanDuel \| Total: FanDuel	Bet on DK
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-199)	-1.5 (+163)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-101	-120	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+172	-205	1.5 (-134)	-1.5 (+112)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: FanDuel \| RL: FanDuel \| Total: FanDuel	Bet on DK
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	-156	+129	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-110	-110	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-108	-108	-1.5 (+146)	1.5 (-178)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: FanDuel \| RL: FanDuel \| Total: FanDuel	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+158	-193	1.5 (-137)	-1.5 (+114)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 49 Grade B | 795 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Michael King Over	PAD@GUA	7:11 PM	3.5	5.3	-150	DK Over 3.5 -150 \| exact	50.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Peter Lambert Over	MAR@AST	8:11 PM	4.5	6.3	-149	DK Over 4.5 -149 \| exact	39.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (60 play(s))

K Prop - Shane Bieber Under

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 4.75

K Prop - George Kirby Over

Selected line 4.5 is split from majority 4.5 / avg 5

Batter Total Bases - Yainer Diaz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nathaniel Lowe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jackson Merrill Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Miguel Rojas Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrew Vaughn Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ronny Simon Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andruw Monasterio Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Keibert Ruiz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jorge Polanco Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Koss Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Mickey Moniak Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Carson Kelly Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Javier Baez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrew Benintendi Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tristan Peters Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Eugenio Suarez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tyler Stephenson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Heriberto Hernandez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Griffin Conine Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Cal Raleigh Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Alejandro Kirk Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Jones Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Michael King Over 3.5 (-150) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
DK	3.5	-150	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	-
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 51.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.78K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael King: K/9 8.3, proj 5.3K over 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 18.4% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Sweeper (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 65 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .795
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 65 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.0%, split 15.8%, L7 15.4%, season 21.8%, active roster 18.1%/7 hitters, BVP 23.1%/65 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 17.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 15.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.1% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 21/24 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -150, expected IP 5.7 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Peter Lambert Over 4.5 (-149) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-167	+127	-
DK	4.5	-149	+117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-172	+134	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 39.1% vs 17% min; cushion +1.76K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Peter Lambert: K/9 9.2, proj 6.3K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 28.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .614
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 44 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 18.1%, L7 24.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -149, expected IP 5.6 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (49 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-147) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -147

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+115	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 25.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 8.8, proj 4.1K over 4.7 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.389 | top pitch: Changeup (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .438 | OPS 1.339
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 19 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 23.2%, L7 19.0%, season 21.1%, active roster 21.4%/6 hitters, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Kansas City Royals 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +4.4 ppts (recent 24.1% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Shane Bieber Under 5.5 (-160) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.75 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +124; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+119	-
FanDuel	4.5	-158	+124	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+120	-
DK	5.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 20.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.00
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.5, proj 4.4K over 5.1 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.399 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Curveball: 35.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .219 | OPS .546
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 34 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.1%, L7 28.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/9 (78%) | L20 7/9 (78%) | Season 7/9 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.56 | Season Avg 3.56
Prop trend: K L10: 7/9 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 7 play(s) (B 7)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Clay Holmes Over 1.5 (-119) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.86, ERA 3.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .195 | OPS .502
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.6%, L7 19.5%, season 20.4%, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 (-159) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.99 over 6.4 IP (xFIP 3.46, ERA 2.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.4 IP (HIGH; season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.7 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 62 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .649
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 26.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 14.5%/62 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-159); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jackson Jobe Over 1.5 (-154) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.6% / under 43.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .311
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.9%, L7 24.8%, season 24.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/1 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Alvarez Under 2.5 (-154) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+116	-154	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 3.83, ERA 3.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .300 | OPS .862
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 23.4%, L7 21.1%, season 22.6% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/17 (76%) | Season 13/17 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-154); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-115) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.02 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 6.45)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Grayson Rodriguez: 19 PA | K% 10.5% | BB% 15.8% | AVG .438 | OPS 1.339
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 23.2%, L7 19.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 10.5%/19 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 3.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 (-155) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.18 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 3.57, ERA 2.98)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 171 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.8%, L7 20.4%, season 19.6%, BVP 18.1%/171 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Bennett Under 2.5 (-161) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.49 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.3%, L7 22.1%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-161); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 33 play(s) (B 33)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/112 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 93/112 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-375) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-310) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 101/120 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 101/120 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-450) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/120 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 86/120 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/118 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 97/118 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.20
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/118 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 97/118 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-500) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-450) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/118 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/118 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-350) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/106 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 88/106 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-450) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 13 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 38.5% | BB% 7.7% | OPS .321
BVP walk adjustment: 0.97x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/62 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 89/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-270) diff 51.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/121 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 97/121 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-270); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/104 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 77/104 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-330) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-330); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-500) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-525) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-525); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-210) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-210); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-155) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-155); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-320) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-320); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-185) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-185); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-375) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-255); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-215) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-215); break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-280) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-400); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Franklin Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (-137) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.48
Base projection 2.48 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.517 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/119 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 35/57 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.60 | Day Batter HRR: 71/119 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.48

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-126) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.404 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 30%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-127) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.521 (45 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/61 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.12

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, L10 HRR over-rate 40%, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-151) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.408, xSLG 0.560 (47 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/103 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 28/49 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 59/103 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -151 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-140) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.416 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/122 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 36/63 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 71/122 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.37

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-125) edge 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 2 books | 4 at 1 book | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-128	+108	-
FanDuel	3.5	-125	-104	SelectedRecommended
MyBookie	4	+103	-126	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Chase Burns xFIP 3.58
Sandy Alcantara xFIP 4.07
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Chase Burns (RHP)
Away SP: Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 1.5 (-142) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -142

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetRivers Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5 -137 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✓✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Raymond Burgos (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: -0.4 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+9.79/$100
✓ Cover prob 64.4% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 8.3% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 3 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 3/5
✓ Odds -142 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Bubba Chandler (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Jake Bennett (LHP) | opp wRC+ 94 vs LHP (neutral)
PNC Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Boston Red Sox pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 60%, bullpen 40%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Stats within normal range

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (795 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 17 play(s) (B 1 | C 16)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Clay Holmes Over 3.5 (-141) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-145	+112	-
DK	3.5	-141	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.57K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.2% / under 44.8%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Clay Holmes: K/9 8.3, proj 4.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.1% | put-away% 16.0% | xwOBA 0.317 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Clay Holmes: 46 PA | K% 15.2% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .195 | OPS .502
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.6%, L7 19.5%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 15.2%/46 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/10 (70%) | Season 7/10 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.60
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.2 ppts (recent 23.9% vs season 19.7%, proj adj +2.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Bennett Over 4.5 (+115) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+115	-146	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.96K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.9% / under 56.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jake Bennett: K/9 6.5, proj 5.5K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.0% | put-away% 19.1% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.3%, L7 22.1%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/13 (31%) | Season 4/13 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.23
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Stock Over 3.5 (-154) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -154

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-143	+110	-
DK	3.5	-154	+121	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-155	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.2K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Stock: K/9 8.7, proj 4.2K over 4.3 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/2 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 11.0% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Changeup (67% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.5%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.65 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Seth Lugo Under 4.5 (+115) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+112	-
DK	4.5	-146	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Seth Lugo: K/9 6.4, proj 3.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.3% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.349 | top pitch: Cutter (22% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 18.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .725
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.8%, L7 24.8%, season 25.2%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 (-121) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-111	-116	-
DK	5.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-106	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.93K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sandy Alcantara: K/9 7.2, proj 6.4K over 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Changeup: 35.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .597
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 87 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/25 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gavin Williams Over 7.5 (+117) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	+120	-156	-
DK	7.5	+117	-150	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+122	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.2K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 9.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.4% / under 56.6%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gavin Williams: K/9 12.8, proj 8.2K over 6.1 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 30.7% | put-away% 24.0% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Sweeper (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 28% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .375 | OPS .881
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 15.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.60 | Season Avg 7.71
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
K% trend: support +12.8 ppts (recent 45.1% vs season 32.3%, proj adj +6.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Freeland Under 5.5 (-142) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
DK	5.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 8.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.44K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Freeland: K/9 7.7, proj 5.1K over 5.7 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .155 | OPS .542
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/14 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.36
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 (+106) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+102	-132	-
DK	4.5	+106	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.7% / under 54.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Matthew Liberatore: K/9 9.1, proj 4.8K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.6% | xwOBA 0.342 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 138 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .799
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 138 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters, BVP 19.6%/138 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Chicago Cubs 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.8%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 88%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.78
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +3.5 ppts (recent 25.5% vs season 22.0%, proj adj +1.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Kirby Over 4.5 (-155) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -155

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 5.5 +132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-155	+121	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	-164	+128	-
BetOnline	5.5	+132	-172	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.3% / under 42.7%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK LOWER delta -0.67
George Kirby: K/9 7.3, proj 4.8K over 5.9 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.1% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.304 | top pitch: Sweeper (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 37.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 192 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .611
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 192 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 20.0%, L7 18.0%, season 21.3%, active roster 18.8%/7 hitters, BVP 18.8%/192 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.09
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Chase Burns Over 6.5 (-111) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-103	-125	-
DK	6.5	-111	-114	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+102	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.33K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.7% / under 50.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Chase Burns: K/9 10.0, proj 6.8K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 20.7% | xwOBA 0.278 | top pitch: Slider (52% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.7%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Landen Roupp Under 5.5 (+106) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-130	+101	-
DK	5.5	-136	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	5.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.28K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.3% / under 45.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Landen Roupp: K/9 8.2, proj 5.2K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 19.4% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.1%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 5.35
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.5 ppts (recent 17.1% vs season 23.6%, proj adj -3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 (+112) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+112	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bubba Chandler: K/9 8.1, proj 4.6K over 5.1 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Slider: 29.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.4%, L7 17.9%, season 21.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 (+114) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
DK	5.5	+114	-145	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gerrit Cole: K/9 10.3, proj 5.6K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.7% | put-away% 22.7% | xwOBA 0.288 | top pitch: Slider (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Slider: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 171 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .729
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 171 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.8%, L7 20.4%, season 19.6%, active roster 19.3%/6 hitters, BVP 18.1%/171 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.21
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
K% trend: support +6.4 ppts (recent 32.8% vs season 26.4%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 (+107) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 6.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 6.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-141	+109	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-145	+110	-
DK	6.5	-136	+107	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	6.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 2.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.4% / under 45.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: K/9 7.8, proj 6.4K over 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS; recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.276 | top pitch: Split-Finger (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 37.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 62 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .649
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 26.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 14.5%/62 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jackson Jobe Over 4.5 (-114) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-108	-120	-
DK	4.5	-114	-112	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.2% / under 49.8%); own-line consensus 1/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jackson Jobe: K/9 8.4, proj 4.5K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.274 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jackson Jobe: 10 PA | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .311
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 22.9%, L7 24.8%, season 24.0% (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 0/1 (0%) | L10 0/1 (0%) | L20 0/1 (0%) | Season 0/1 (0%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 0/1 over 4.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Robert Gasser Over 4.5 (+107) diff 0.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.6% vs 17% min; cushion +0.03K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robert Gasser: K/9 8.2, proj 4.5K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Sweeper (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 23 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 13.0% | AVG .368 | OPS 1.426
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.0%, L7 20.5%, season 20.5%, BVP 26.1%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 4.69
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Alvarez Over 4.5 (+112) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	+112	-142	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.6% / under 55.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Alvarez: K/9 7.6, proj 4.5K over 4.6 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.321 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andrew Alvarez: 13 PA | K% 7.7% | BB% 15.4% | AVG .300 | OPS .862
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 23.4%, L7 21.1%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.9%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 21.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 3.82
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
K% trend: headwind -7.3 ppts (recent 14.7% vs season 22.0%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 14 play(s) (B 1 | C 13)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Jake Bennett Over 17.5 (-111) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
DK	17.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.692 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.95 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.3%, L7 22.1%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 7.6%, L7 9.5%, season 9.2% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 17.69
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 (+118) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	18.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 21.258 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.6 IP (season 6.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.46 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 114, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.6 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.7 | pitch-count proxy 114
BVP (active roster) vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 62 PA | K% 14.5% | BB% 6.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .649
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 23.8%, L7 26.0%, season 21.5%, BVP 14.5%/62 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.9%, split 11.1%, L7 13.4%, season 10.8%, BVP 6.5%/62 PA (adj 1.15x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.6 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.8 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 21.00 | Season Avg 19.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gavin Williams Over 18.5 (+147) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.874999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 12.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.80 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 37.9% / under 62.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .375 | OPS .881
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 15.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 10.1%, L7 8.7%, season 9.1%, BVP 3.9%/26 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/24 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 18.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.37 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.37 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 (-117) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.674999999999997 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.5 IP (season 6.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.6 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 10.5%, L7 8.4%, season 9.6%, BVP 6.9%/87 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.5 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/25 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.90 | Season Avg 19.64
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Landen Roupp Under 17.5 (+104) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +104

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-139	+104	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 15.700999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 10.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.88 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.1%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.1%, split 8.3%, L7 7.9%, season 8.1% (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.80 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.80 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael King Under 17.5 (-114) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-117	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.962 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.37 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.3% / under 49.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 65 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .795
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 15.8%, L7 15.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.1%/65 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 9.9%, L7 10.7%, season 9.8%, BVP 13.9%/65 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 9/24 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chris Sale Over 17.5 (-195) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -195

Selected market: Over 60.8% / Under 39.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 60.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.733 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.86 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.8% / under 39.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, L7 18.5%, season 19.2% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, L7 11.1%, season 8.9% (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.80 | Season Avg 17.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Peter Lambert Under 17.5 (-115) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-116	-115	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.762 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.40 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 18.1%, L7 24.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 9.9%, L7 8.2%, season 8.8%, BVP 6.8%/44 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 (-115) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.043 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 104 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .292 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.0%, L7 22.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.2%/104 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.9%, split 8.2%, L7 7.8%, season 7.9%, BVP 7.7%/104 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.10 | Season Avg 12.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +2.86 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Gerrit Cole Over 18.5 (+122) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	+120	-160	-
DK	18.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 19.073999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 3.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.57 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 171 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.8%, L7 20.4%, season 19.6%, BVP 18.1%/171 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.7%, L7 9.1%, season 7.4%, BVP 4.1%/171 PA (adj 0.90x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.2%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/14 (29%) | Season 4/14 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 17.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — George Kirby Under 18.5 (-169) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 18.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 18.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 18.5 -169 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 18.057999999999996 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 2.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.79 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 192 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .611
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.0%, L7 18.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.8%/192 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 10.2%, L7 7.8%, season 8.9%, BVP 3.1%/192 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 18.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 under 18.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Chase Burns Under 17.5 (+100) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-132	+100	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.158 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.58 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.2% / under 46.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 87
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 18.7%, L7 22.4%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 9.7%, L7 11.0%, season 9.0% (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Seth Lugo Over 17.5 (-118) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	17.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.632 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.52 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .725
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.8%, L7 24.8%, season 25.2%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 12.0%, L7 8.9%, season 8.5%, BVP 1.9%/53 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.60 | Season Avg 16.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 (+128) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +128

Selected market: Over 59.0% / Under 41.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.433 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.0% / under 41.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .155 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.3%, split 6.1%, L7 7.7%, season 7.0%, BVP 3.3%/61 PA (adj 0.85x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.90 | Season Avg 15.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +2.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 17 play(s) (B 1 | C 16)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Steven Matz Over 0.5 (+140) diff 200.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.30 over 3.1 IP (xFIP 4.41, ERA 3.38)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.1 IP (MEDIUM; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 1.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 3.9 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.5% / under 61.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Steven Matz: 43 PA | K% 18.6% | BB% 7.0% | AVG .308 | OPS .859
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.0%, L7 23.5%, season 24.3%, BVP 18.6%/43 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.5% (1 books) — posture note at C

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Newcomb Over 0.5 (-115) diff 160.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.3 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.86 over 3.0 IP (xFIP 3.91, ERA 3.94)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.0 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.0 IP/GS; recent 1.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Newcomb: 37 PA | K% 24.3% | BB% 2.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .741
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 25.3%, L7 19.7%, season 22.6%, BVP 24.3%/37 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 11/44 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Gavin Williams Over 1.5 (-127) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.86 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.80, ERA 3.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.3% / under 47.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gavin Williams: 26 PA | K% 19.2% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .375 | OPS .881
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 15.9%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.2%/26 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Peter Lambert Under 2.5 (-135) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.71 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Peter Lambert: 44 PA | K% 31.8% | BB% 6.8% | AVG .220 | OPS .614
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 18.1%, L7 24.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 31.8%/44 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/20 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 (-103) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.11 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 5.87)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .155 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Stock Over 2.5 (+118) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.61 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.30, ERA 6.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 4.0 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 21.5%, L7 23.5%, season 21.5% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/2 (50%) | L10 1/2 (50%) | L20 1/2 (50%) | Season 1/2 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/2 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Over 2.5 (-116) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.26 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.65, ERA 4.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.2% / under 49.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .219 | OPS .546
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.1%, L7 28.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.89 | Season Avg 2.89
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/9 over 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Seth Lugo Over 2.5 (-105) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.72 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.52, ERA 4.23)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Seth Lugo: 53 PA | K% 17.0% | BB% 1.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .725
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.8%, L7 24.8%, season 25.2%, BVP 17.0%/53 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Landen Roupp Under 2.5 (-171) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.88, ERA 4.23)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.0% / under 59.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Landen Roupp: 11 PA | K% 54.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.1%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sandy Alcantara Under 2.5 (-125) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.51 over 6.3 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 2.86)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.3 IP (HIGH; season 6.5 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.6 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Sandy Alcantara: 87 PA | K% 25.3% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .222 | OPS .597
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.3%, BVP 25.3%/87 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/25 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Kirby Under 2.5 (-138) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.61 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.79, ERA 3.52)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 192 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .611
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.0%, L7 18.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.8%/192 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Liberatore Over 2.5 (-104) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.73 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 4.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
BVP (active roster) vs Matthew Liberatore: 138 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .269 | OPS .799
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.5%, L7 23.0%, season 21.8%, BVP 19.6%/138 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bubba Chandler Under 2.5 (-156) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.39 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.83, ERA 3.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bubba Chandler: 3 PA | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 22.4%, L7 17.9%, season 21.6% (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael King Under 2.5 (-155) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.06 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.37, ERA 3.31)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael King: 65 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 13.9% | AVG .241 | OPS .795
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 15.8%, L7 15.4%, season 21.8%, BVP 23.1%/65 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (+105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +105

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.62 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 5.12)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .378 | OPS 1.060
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.0%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robert Gasser Over 2.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.52 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.84)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Robert Gasser: 23 PA | K% 26.1% | BB% 13.0% | AVG .368 | OPS 1.426
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.0%, L7 20.5%, season 20.5%, BVP 26.1%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/13 (38%) | Season 5/13 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Chris Sale Under 1.5 (-110) Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.5 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.38 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.86, ERA 2.10)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, L7 18.5%, season 19.2% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 11 play(s) (B 1 | C 10)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-274) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+201	-274	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.309)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.270 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/37 (27%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/117 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 32/60 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 69/117 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-259) diff 43.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+191	-259	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-239) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+176	-239	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-258) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+190	-258	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+190	-260	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.300)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.275 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/43 (37%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/106 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 74/106 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-255) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+188	-255	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.262 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/36 (25%) | L5 4/15 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/120 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/61 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 87/120 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dillon Dingler Under 1.5 (-254) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -254 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -254 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+187	-254	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.01 (AVG 0.264)
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.418 (130 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/44 (23%) | L5 1/21 (5%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 78/112 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-248) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -248

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -248 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+183	-248	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.262)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345 (77 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 7/17 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/121 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 42/63 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 87/121 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jac Caglianone Under 1.5 (-273) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+201	-273	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.96 (AVG 0.268)
Base projection 0.96 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343 (60 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 17/39 (44%) | L5 10/20 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 0.96
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter Hits: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 84/113 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-239) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+176	-239	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.293)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .786 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 2/21 (10%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 76/111 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-229) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.322)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473 (32 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/120 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 44/61 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 79/120 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-242) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -242

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -213 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+179	-242	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.408 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/36 (33%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/103 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.06 | Day Batter Hits: 72/103 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 202 play(s) (B 1 | C 176 | D 25)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-120) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 369.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 369.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 84/120 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 35/61 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 84/120 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.25

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 369% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 0.5 (-150) diff 277.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 277.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.387 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 2.02

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 277% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 267.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 267.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 81/115 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-150) diff 251.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.89

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 251.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.89

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-140) diff 251.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.89

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 234.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.629 (48 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/57 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 78/111 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.66

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 234% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 (-180) diff 228.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.509 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/119 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/61 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 71/119 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-150) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 (-165) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-165) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-120) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (+125) diff 226.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-150) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-160) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronny Simon Over 0.5 (-190) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-150) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 220% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 (-140) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 (-180) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-150) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Tena Over 0.5 (-165) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Arias Over 0.5 (-120) diff 219.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 219.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 219% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zac Veen Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-180) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Buddy Kennedy Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Norby Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Knizner Over 0.5 (-110) diff 217.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-130) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market split 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market split 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyrone Taylor Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-130) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-160) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 50.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Malgeri Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Julks Over 0.5 (-130) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-120) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-190) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ke'Bryan Hayes Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-110) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (+100) diff 212.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-130) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-140) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Rivas Over 0.5 (+105) diff 207.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 35/54 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 67/109 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.68

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-180) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.335 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/115 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/61 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 79/115 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.77

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-180) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-123) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-180) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-180) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 (-190) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-115) diff 205.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — John Rave Over 0.5 (-130) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-180) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-150) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-180) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-165) diff 203.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 0.5 (-165) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-180) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-150) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-130) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-150) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-115) diff 201.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-115	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 202% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-150) diff 201.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 65/114 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-180) diff 201.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 65/114 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-120) diff 169.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.360 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/122 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 41/60 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 81/122 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 0.5 (-180) diff 164.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 30 PA | 5/28 | HR 0 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .379
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/96 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 29/49 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 57/96 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-165) diff 158.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 158.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.266 (68 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 63/114 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 158.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 158.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-160) diff 151.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 151.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/119 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter TB: 72/119 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 151.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-150) diff 117.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 117.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/57 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 63/115 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 117.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 117.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-140) diff 114.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.452 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 58/111 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 114.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-140) diff 113.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 113.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.180 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 58/111 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 113.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 113.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-140) diff 111.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/57 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.88 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 55/113 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 58/113 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 78.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-140) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.237 (51 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/117 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/61 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 60/117 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+115) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.404 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 51/116 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 61.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+114) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.521 (45 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+171) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/120 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 56/120 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-116	-111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/120 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 20/61 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 56/120 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 56.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+110) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.517 (60 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/119 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/62 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter TB: 52/119 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 54.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (+111) diff 47.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.416 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/122 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 30/63 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 59/122 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-102) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.560 (47 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/103 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 48/103 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-110) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.479 (60 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-107) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.619 (130 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter TB: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+100) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.470 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 53/112 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+139) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/121 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 50/121 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+118) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.467 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 47/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-209) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+156	-209	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (15 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 74/112 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/66 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 58/120 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+130) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.606 (37 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/118 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 45/118 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+141) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.503 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/111 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 48/111 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+140) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.479 (68 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/117 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/65 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 54/117 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+130) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.623 (42 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/103 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 39/103 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+137) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.572 (63 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 46/118 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+114) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+123) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 58/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+100) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.476 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/121 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 50/121 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+108) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.375 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .786 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/111 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 46/111 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+128) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/88 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 35/88 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+120) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.386 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/121 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/121 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-190) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.354 (63 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/122 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/63 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 81/122 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-165) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 74/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-179) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 45 PA | 13/38 | HR 2 | K% 6.7% | BB% 8.9% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 45 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 72/114 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+130) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/119 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 45/119 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+116) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/120 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 47/120 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+117) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.443 (91 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 57/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-166) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 19/59 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (+126) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.290 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 32/101 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 12/54 over 1.5 (22%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 32/101 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-210) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
DK	1.5	+156	-210	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (60 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+135) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.629 (48 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.503 (168 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/117 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 47/117 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+117) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.335 (28 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/106 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 49/106 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Under 1.5 (-194) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.360 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/122 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/62 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 80/122 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+141) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.319 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 38/113 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 38/113 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gary Sanchez Over 1.5 (+204) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +204

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +204 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+136) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 46/118 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+141) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 43/116 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+147) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+167) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+186) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+123) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (+120) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+137) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.4% / Under 60.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+137	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+146) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (+140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+114) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Bericoto Over 1.5 (+145) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.342 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/121 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 43/121 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+136) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-186) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 58/90 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 31/47 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 58/90 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 (-200) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/123 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/60 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 41/63 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 76/123 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/121 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 41/121 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Under 1.5 (-186) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.284 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/118 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 73/118 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+137) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.328 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 16 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/119 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 43/119 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (58 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/56 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/102 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 41/102 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.548 (132 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/120 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 45/120 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+142) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 16 PA | 7/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+141) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/120 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 49/120 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-165) diff 196.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/92 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/45 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 55/92 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (-180) diff 194.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 194.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.396 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/61 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 70/115 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 194.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 194% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 0.5 (-165) diff 193.5% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.280 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/120 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/60 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 69/120 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 194% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (-180) diff 193.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.377 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/120 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/65 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 78/120 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 192.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.298 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/118 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 72/118 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 192% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-140) diff 190.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.361 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/118 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 70/118 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-180) diff 188.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.353 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 85/120 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/62 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 85/120 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 185.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 27/47 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 54/90 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 185.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 27/47 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 54/90 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-150) diff 181.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.371 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 67/103 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.30 | Day Batter TB: 67/103 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 (-160) diff 177.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 177.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.174 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/57 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 30/60 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 59/117 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 177.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 177% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-160) diff 176.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/88 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter TB: 52/88 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (-180) diff 172.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 172.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 82/115 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 172.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (-160) diff 167.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.191 (56 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/119 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/61 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 65/119 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 168% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-165) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.369 (58 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 77/113 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-180) diff 160.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.321 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .524
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/92 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/52 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 26/40 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 59/92 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 0.5 (-180) diff 153.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/52 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 62/100 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 152.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 152.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.287 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 3.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 68/115 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 152.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-180) diff 151.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 151.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.240 (52 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 28/56 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter TB: 63/109 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Over 0.5 (-180) diff 150.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/61 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 69/113 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 150.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 150.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (42 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/119 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 35/60 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 61/119 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 150.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 151% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 135.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.189 (78 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 29/54 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 53/103 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-150) diff 126.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-165) diff 122.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 122.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.266 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/119 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/65 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 36/54 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 75/119 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 122.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 95.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.98 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 95.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.220 (55 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 25 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 32.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .584
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 95.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market split 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Under 5.5 (-162) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -162 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 10.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Bieber: 34 PA | K% 14.7% | BB% 5.9% | AVG .219 | OPS .546
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 20.1%, L7 28.3%, season 24.6%, BVP 14.7%/34 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.33 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/9 under 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 (-128) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-104	-128	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.79 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.02, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Gerrit Cole: 171 PA | K% 18.1% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .729
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 18.8%, L7 20.4%, season 19.6%, BVP 18.1%/171 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/14 (64%) | Season 9/14 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Bennett Under 5.5 (-132) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.90 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.13, BB% 5.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Jake Bennett: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 25.3%, L7 22.1%, season 24.1% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 (+115) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +115

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.7%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.2% / under 42.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 104 PA | K% 20.2% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .292 | OPS .815
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.0%, L7 22.9%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.2%/104 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 3.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — George Kirby Over 5.5 (-115) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs George Kirby: 192 PA | K% 18.8% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .263 | OPS .611
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.0%, L7 18.0%, season 21.3%, BVP 18.8%/192 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.70 | Season Avg 6.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Freeland Under 6.5 (-158) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.19 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Freeland: 61 PA | K% 26.2% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .155 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.8%, L7 25.1%, season 21.1%, BVP 26.2%/61 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.90 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kumar Rocker Under 5.5 (+100) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.07 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 8.7%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 43 PA | K% 14.0% | BB% 11.6% | AVG .378 | OPS 1.060
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 23.0%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 14.0%/43 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 190 play(s) (C 190)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+105) diff 60.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.80 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.73
Base projection 0.73 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.73
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/65 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.72 | Day Batter Walks: 63/119 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.73

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-320) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/88 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/43 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 60/88 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+105) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/103 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/52 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 55/103 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-475) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/119 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 88/119 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-280) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 16 PA | 7/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 73/115 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-450) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/118 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 81/118 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-255) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/112 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 84/112 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-350) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .524
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/92 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 59/92 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-225) diff 45.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 75/121 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 75/121 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-240) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/113 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 87/113 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-265) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 73/100 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 73/100 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-350) diff 44.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/121 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 83/121 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-375) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/122 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 95/122 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-300) diff 44.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/122 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 95/122 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-375) diff 43.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/113 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 89/113 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-375) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-525) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-310) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Buddy Kennedy Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-330) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-450) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-155) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-320) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Bericoto Under 0.5 (-525) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-350) diff 43.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-270) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-230) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-255) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-400) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 47/61 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-270) diff 38.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/52 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-330) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 8 PA | 5/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/98 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/53 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 62/98 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-425) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 45 PA | 13/38 | HR 2 | K% 6.7% | BB% 8.9% | OPS 1.028
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 45 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-575) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-240) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-215) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-525) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-280) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-450) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Rojas Under 0.5 (-310) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-270) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-240) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-525) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-255) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-180) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-240) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-330) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-135) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-450) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-245) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-225) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-400) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-225) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-215) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-270) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-210) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-230) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-185) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/102 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/102 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-425) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/120 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/120 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-310) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-350) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-280) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-550) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-185) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-265) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+110) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 55/117 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-195) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 67/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.46

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-340) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 80/116 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-210) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 82/116 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-115) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-130) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-550) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Julks Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-375) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-300) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-240) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/121 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 46/63 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 89/121 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-240) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-255) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-265) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-375) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-170) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-340) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-475) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-300) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-240) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/120 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/61 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/120 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-300) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/119 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 76/119 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-340) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-340) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-320) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 82/115 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-225) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-310) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-270) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-240) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-550) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-280) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+115) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/116 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/54 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 20/62 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 42/116 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.53

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-375) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/65 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 84/117 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-245) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP BB% 10.5% (walk adj 1.23x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Steven Matz: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 79/120 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 79/120 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-330) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/115 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/115 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-350) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/115 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/115 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+145) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .673
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/112 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 18/59 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 45/112 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+145) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/117 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 53/117 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-350) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 88/114 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 78/120 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/66 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/120 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+170) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .873
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/122 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 25/63 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 47/122 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-340) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 75/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 75/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-210) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/62 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 85/119 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-330) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-245) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-320) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-475) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-310) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-185) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-310) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/119 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/61 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 75/119 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-280) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/115 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 72/115 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-195) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-185) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.79x)
BVP vs Brandon Pfaadt: 13 PA | 2/11 | HR 0 | K% 15.4% | BB% 15.4% | OPS .671
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/121 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 78/121 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-230) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 36/59 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+160) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/59 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 46/118 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+150) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/88 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/44 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 15/44 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 32/88 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-255) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 76/115 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-350) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .833
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 77/113 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-215) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS 1.071
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 60/101 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-155) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/109 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 62/109 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pedro Ramirez Over 0.5 (+275) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +275 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +275

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/90 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 39/90 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 24.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+130) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/90 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.59
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 20/47 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 39/90 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-240) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/103 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/103 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+190) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/56 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 21/55 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 44/111 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+110) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 37/101 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/47 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 37/101 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+115) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kumar Rocker: 10 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS 1.700
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/50 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 40/108 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-210) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/119 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 69/119 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-155) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/120 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 77/120 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Under 0.5 (-170) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 58/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 28/61 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 58/120 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-165) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 58/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 28/61 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 58/120 under 0.5 (48%), avg 0.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-180) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/45 under 0.5 (44%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 26/47 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 46/92 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+130) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/118 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 51/118 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-300) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/123 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter Walks: 39/63 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 67/123 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-340) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/111 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 78/111 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-240) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 9.3% (walk adj 1.10x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 75/114 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-300) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 79/120 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/65 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 79/120 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-155) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+105) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/117 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/61 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 50/117 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+190) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 47/120 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 22/61 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 47/120 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-150) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .364
BVP walk adjustment: 0.88x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/51 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 63/104 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-270) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/93 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/47 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 58/93 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-320) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .620
BVP walk adjustment: 1.12x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-225) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.7% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/53 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 61/112 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Over 0.5 (+145) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Steven Matz: 12 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 8.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.200
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/121 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/62 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 23/59 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 48/121 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (+105) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/61 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 47/115 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 (+120) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/104 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 20/50 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 39/104 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+130) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 47/122 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/63 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 47/122 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-170) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 70/109 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-240) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .970
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 67/121 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 35/62 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/121 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-215) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.2% (walk adj 1.20x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-310) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/118 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/61 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 69/118 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-225) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 35/61 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 72/117 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-300) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/103 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 27/49 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 64/103 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Over 0.5 (+140) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/118 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 20/60 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 41/118 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 134 play(s) (C 134)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.56
Base projection 2.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/120 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 65/120 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-153) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.418, xSLG 0.619 (130 PA, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 58/112 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-118) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.331, xSLG 0.404 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/120 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/66 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 67/120 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+107) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.479 (68 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 72/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/65 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 72/117 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+103) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 67/115 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-130) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.274, xSLG 0.362 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/104 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 61/104 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-150) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/120 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 66/120 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-150) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.343, xSLG 0.479 (60 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (-127) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.467 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/101 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/50 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.48 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 60/101 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-115) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.158, xSLG 0.179 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/119 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.52 | Day Batter HRR: 62/119 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-131) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.397, xSLG 0.503 (168 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 62/117 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (-129) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.413 (35 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/120 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter HRR: 61/120 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (-125) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.386 (80 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/121 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 60/121 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-140) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.375 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .786 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-110) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.503 (56 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-105) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 56/93 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 56/93 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-109) diff 45.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.448 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/121 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 62/121 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-131) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.389 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 67/117 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-120) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.290 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/101 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/47 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 45/101 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-104) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.572 (63 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 61/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-125) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.443 (91 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 74/118 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/62 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 74/118 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-140) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.467 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/121 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 33/63 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 62/121 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+126) diff 39.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-119) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.328 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 16 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-128) diff 37.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.25
Base projection 2.25 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.335 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-113) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.342 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/121 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 58/121 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-119) diff 36.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.399 (41 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-122) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+108) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.396 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.387 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter HRR: 55/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+100) diff 33.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.381 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+113) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.314, xSLG 0.377 (61 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/120 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/65 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 59/120 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+115) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.202, xSLG 0.288 (50 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/112 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 47/112 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (-103) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/118 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 60/118 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+108) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.509 (28 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/119 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 60/119 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (+116) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.126, xSLG 0.174 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hector Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.436, xSLG 0.629 (48 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+100) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.436, xSLG 0.629 (48 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-129) diff 30.4% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.309 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/120 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 68/120 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pedro Ramirez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.379, xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/90 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 42/90 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+101) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/123 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.92 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/60 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 31/63 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 68/123 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-125) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.270, xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 38/60 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.45 | Day Batter HRR: 67/117 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-106) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.319 (59 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 47/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-102) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.310, xSLG 0.401 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 16 PA | 7/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 53/115 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+127) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 63/115 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+133) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.371 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 57/103 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 57/103 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-129) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.398, xSLG 0.548 (132 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/120 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 61/120 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-108) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.308 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 45 PA | 13/38 | HR 2 | K% 6.7% | BB% 8.9% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 45 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 53/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-106) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.244, xSLG 0.274 (60 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 52/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-167) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.206, xSLG 0.237 (51 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 73/117 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-110) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.284 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 59/118 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 59/118 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+111) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/100 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/52 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 50/100 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+122) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.353 (70 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 62/120 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+115) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+117) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-101) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.232, xSLG 0.298 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/118 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 54/118 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+111) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.369 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+126) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.211, xSLG 0.191 (56 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/119 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 56/119 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+106) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.266 (68 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-104) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.360 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/122 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 58/122 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+106) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.366 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/92 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/45 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 41/92 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+136) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.311 (49 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/61 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+100) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.354 (63 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 63/122 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/63 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 63/122 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+116) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.260 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 30 PA | 5/28 | HR 0 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .379
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/96 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 46/96 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.67 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.56
Base projection 2.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/120 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/59 over 2.5 (59%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 21/61 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter HRR: 56/120 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Collins Over 1.5 (+107) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.240 (52 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 16/56 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter HRR: 44/109 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 5 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-136) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 (-126) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-114) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-111) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (+101) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-130) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-122) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (-120) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (-114) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 (-102) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 (+109) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Tena Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorbit Vivas Over 1.5 (+127) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (-124) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+100) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Bericoto Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Koss Over 1.5 (+112) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Buddy Kennedy Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Grant McCray Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyrone Taylor Over 1.5 (+125) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+132) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+135) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-135) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (-107) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (-106) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+109) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tristan Peters Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Malgeri Over 1.5 (+136) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.259, xSLG 0.321 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .524
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/92 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/52 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 15/40 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 46/92 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-131) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.163, xSLG 0.189 (78 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/103 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 66/103 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-130) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 70/108 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nasim Nunez Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.284 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eugenio Suarez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-159) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.166, xSLG 0.257 (42 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/119 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 69/119 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-134) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-103) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brendan Donovan Over 1.5 (+117) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Under 1.5 (-154) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Under 1.5 (-182) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/115 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 under 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 66/115 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Under 1.5 (-182) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Under 1.5 (-165) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+111) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.223, xSLG 0.266 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/119 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 52/119 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-122) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Jones Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+105) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+112) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+131) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (+135) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Under 1.5 (-115) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Under 1.5 (-155) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Under 1.5 (-165) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Under 1.5 (-105) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-101) edge 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 7.5 -115 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -101

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 7.5 at 7 books | 8 at 3 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 7.5 -115 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 8 -101; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-120	-	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-117	-	-
BetUS	7.5	-120	-	-
LowVig	7.5	-118	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-115	-	Recommended
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-115	-	-
DK	8	-101	-	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	8	-104	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Chase Burns (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 67%, bullpen 33%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-109) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -130 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -109

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 8 books | 7.5 at 1 book | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 7.5 -130 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 8 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	-130	-	Recommended
BetOnline	8	-108	-	-
BetRivers	8	+100	-	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	8	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	8	-110	-	-
DK	8	-109	-	Selected
FanDuel	8	-108	-	-
LowVig	8	-105	-	-
MyBookie	8	-106	-	-
BetMGM	8.5	-102	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Clay Holmes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Liberatore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-101) edge 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 7.5 -116 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 8 -101

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books | 8 at 5 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 7.5 -116 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 8 +103; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7.5	-118	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-125	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	-124	-	-
MyBookie	7.5	-116	-	Recommended
theScore Bet	7.5	-120	-	-
BetOnline	8	+100	-	-
BetRivers	8	-103	-	-
BetUS	8	+100	-	-
DK	8	-101	-	Selected
LowVig	8	+103	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 35% (team 106)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Yoshinobu Yamamoto elite xFIP (3.46)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees

▸ F5 ML — 3 play(s) (C 3)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Milwaukee Brewers (+170) edge 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +172 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +170

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +172 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto xFIP 3.46
Robert Gasser xFIP 4.34
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 106)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)
Away SP: Robert Gasser (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Chicago White Sox (+124) edge 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie +133 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +124

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: MyBookie +133 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Jackson Jobe xFIP 4.14
Sean Newcomb xFIP 3.91
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 101)
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jackson Jobe (RHP)
Away SP: Sean Newcomb (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — St. Louis Cardinals (+138) edge 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5) | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +138 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +138

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Clay Holmes xFIP 3.86
Matthew Liberatore xFIP 4.23
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Clay Holmes (RHP)
Away SP: Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+128) edge 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +128

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0395 after 0.0100 buffer
Sandy Alcantara / Chase Burns announced and matched

▸ Run Line — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-134) edge 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: 1.5 -134

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: FanDuel Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –!✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Rolddy Muñoz (Atlanta Braves) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Robert Suarez (Atlanta Braves) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: +0.5 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+10.61/$100
✓ Cover prob 63.3% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 8.5% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 1 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -134 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Away SP: Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Truist Park (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.01)
Atlanta Braves pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.4
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (2 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 1.5 (-137) edge 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Milwaukee Brewers 1.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -137

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Milwaukee Brewers 1.5 -134 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –!✗!–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+6.71/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.7% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 6.4% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 0 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
- L5 RL: 2 bets (below 5 gate — skipped)
✓ Odds -137 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 35% (team 106)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Yoshinobu Yamamoto elite xFIP (3.46)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 33% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▸ Batter HR — 194 play(s) (C 194)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 98.1% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0088
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.284 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/113 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 112/113 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 96.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0179
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.161 (15 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .673
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/112 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 110/112 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — John Rave Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leo Rivas Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Julks Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-375) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Knizner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Buddy Kennedy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Bericoto Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Norby Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Tena Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorbit Vivas Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Abimelec Ortiz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adley Rutschman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0354
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (49 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/113 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 60/61 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 109/113 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0513
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.237 (51 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/117 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/61 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 111/117 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.2% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0492
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.354 (63 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 116/122 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/63 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 116/122 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0513
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 111/117 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 111/117 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.266 (37 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 42.9% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/119 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 112/119 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0614
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.308 (67 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 45 PA | 13/38 | HR 2 | K% 6.7% | BB% 8.9% | OPS 1.028
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 45 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/114 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/58 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/114 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0684
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.220 (55 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 25 PA | 5/23 | HR 0 | K% 32.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .584
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/117 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 110/117 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0721
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.180 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.240 (52 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0588
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.328 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 16 PA | 5/14 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 112/119 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 112/119 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0750
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.353 (70 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/120 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 111/120 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0763
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.278 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.443 (91 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Chase Burns contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/62 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 109/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 85.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0800
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/100 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/100 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0756
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.283 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/119 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 57/61 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 110/119 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0686
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/102 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/102 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.452 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 83.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0885
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.369 (58 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .833
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/113 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/113 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.429 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/115 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/115 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (11 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.375 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 7 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .786 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0957
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.287 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 3/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 3.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/58 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.309 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 109/120 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 109/120 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1043
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1102
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.284 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/118 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 105/118 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 80.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.274 (60 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 103/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.9% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1023
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.286 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/88 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 39/44 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 80/88 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0992
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (77 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 111/121 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 59/63 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 111/121 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1026
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.503 (168 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1148
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.360 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/122 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 109/122 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1148
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.360 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/122 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 109/122 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1083
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.377 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 108/120 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/65 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 108/120 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1220
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/123 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 109/123 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1226
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.335 (28 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/106 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 95/106 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pedro Ramirez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 81/90 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 81/90 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 81/90 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 81/90 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (21 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 10 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .844
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 81/90 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 81/90 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.321 (65 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Gerrit Cole: 33 PA | 7/32 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 3.0% | OPS .524
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/92 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 80/92 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.371 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Landen Roupp: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1354
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.260 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 30 PA | 5/28 | HR 0 | K% 6.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .379
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 30 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/96 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 84/96 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.335 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .522
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1157
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.342 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .970
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/121 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 57/62 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 107/121 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.336 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/104 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 92/104 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1359
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.321 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.189 (78 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Alvarez contact suppression 47, HR vulnerability 53 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Andrew Alvarez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 89/103 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 89/103 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1345
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (42 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 9 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/119 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 105/119 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.381 (58 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.401 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 16 PA | 7/16 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.266 (68 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 102/117 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 102/117 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1240
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.386 (80 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/121 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 109/121 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.396 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1345
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.179 (40 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.400
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1500
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.280 (51 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael King contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Michael King: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 104/120 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 104/120 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.174 (30 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 23.5% | BB% 11.8% | OPS .620
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.560 (47 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/103 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 91/103 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1597
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.509 (28 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 101/119 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 101/119 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1570
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.476 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/121 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 104/121 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.319 (59 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Grayson Rodriguez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1583
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 11 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .955
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/120 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/66 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 103/120 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1864
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.298 (36 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 12 PA | 2/12 | HR 0 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/118 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 97/118 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1933
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.191 (56 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gavin Williams contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Gavin Williams: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/119 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/61 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 98/119 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.629 (48 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1712
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.629 (48 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Peter Lambert contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Peter Lambert: 5 PA | 3/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.548 (132 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/120 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 101/120 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1485
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.290 (19 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/101 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/47 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 88/101 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1927
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/109 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 88/109 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1518
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.288 (50 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1932
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.276 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Yoshinobu Yamamoto contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .875
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/88 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 73/88 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1780
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.572 (63 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 100/118 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 100/118 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2034
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.288 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.361 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gerrit Cole contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1966
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.317 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.479 (68 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Clay Holmes contact suppression 49, HR vulnerability 51 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Clay Holmes: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .347
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/65 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 17 PA | 2/16 | HR 0 | K% 29.4% | BB% 5.9% | OPS .364
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 17 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1695
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.606 (37 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 10 PA | 3/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/118 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 99/118 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2119
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jackson Jobe: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1980
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.467 (63 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 10 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 30.0% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2193
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2193
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2193
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.500 (60 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jake Bennett contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jake Bennett: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2174
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.366 (68 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/92 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 41/47 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 73/92 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds | Start: 6:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2167
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (35 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sandy Alcantara contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sandy Alcantara: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/120 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 96/120 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2281
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/114 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 89/114 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-700) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2281
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.274 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (46 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Jobe contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/114 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 89/114 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1983
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Freeland contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Freeland: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 2 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/121 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 99/121 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2162
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.503 (56 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bubba Chandler contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bubba Chandler: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/111 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 88/111 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1942
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.349 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.623 (42 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Seth Lugo contact suppression 33, HR vulnerability 67 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Seth Lugo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/103 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 84/103 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-400) diff 54.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1858
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.389 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.11x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.479 (60 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 13, HR vulnerability 87 (adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/113 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/113 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-450) diff 52.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2328
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.470 (47 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Gasser contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Robert Gasser: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/112 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 86/112 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-700) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs | Start: 2:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2213
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.342 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.416 (46 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Liberatore contact suppression 36, HR vulnerability 64 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Liberatore: 18 PA | 4/14 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .873
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/122 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 98/122 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-800) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2321
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.619 (130 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Newcomb contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Sean Newcomb: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 89/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2143
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.521 (45 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/112 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/112 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-650) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2437
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.517 (60 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robert Stock contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/62 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 42.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 10:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3063
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.387 (39 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Landen Roupp contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets | Start: 7:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2917
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/120 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 90/120 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros | Start: 8:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2917
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.304 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Kirby contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs George Kirby: 24 PA | 4/22 | HR 0 | K% 29.2% | BB% 4.2% | OPS .477
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/120 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 90/120 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-600) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2759
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.404 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.330/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-101	48.0%	67.2%	+19.1%	$+33.64	9	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-109	49.9%	66.8%	+16.9%	$+28.06	9	Bet on DK
C	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-101	47.9%	63.9%	+16.0%	$+27.21	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 8.0 — Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (Total) +19.1%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Chase Burns (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Sandy Alcantara (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER, run factor 1.10)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 67%, bullpen 33%, offense factor 0.99
Full game environment: park 1.06, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (Total) +16.9%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Clay Holmes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 108 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Liberatore (LHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs LHP (neutral)
Wrigley Field (HITTER, run factor 1.05)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 35% (team 96)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.03, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Stats within normal range

C Over 8.0 — Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Total) +16.0%

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.0 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Robert Gasser (LHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 35% (team 106)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.0
Full game weights: starter 65%, bullpen 35%, offense factor 1.07
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Yoshinobu Yamamoto elite xFIP (3.46)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (F5)	6:11 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-125	52.1%	66.0%	+13.9%	$+18.79	3	Bet on DK
C	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 ML	Milwaukee Brewers	DK	+170	35.0%	43.7%	+8.7%	$+17.91	5	Bet on DK
C	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 ML	Chicago White Sox	DK	+124	42.0%	50.3%	+8.3%	$+12.77	4	Bet on DK
C	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5)	2:20 PM	F5 ML	St. Louis Cardinals	FanDuel	+138	39.8%	48.0%	+8.2%	$+14.37	3	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

B Over 3.5 — Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (F5) (F5 Total) +13.9%

[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Chase Solesky (Cincinnati Reds) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.5 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Great American Ball Park (EXTREME HITTER)
Chase Burns xFIP 3.58
Sandy Alcantara xFIP 4.07
Cincinnati Reds pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 98)
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.03
F5 environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Chase Burns (RHP)
Away SP: Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

C Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +8.7%

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto xFIP 3.46
Robert Gasser xFIP 4.34
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 106)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.10
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)
Away SP: Robert Gasser (LHP)

C Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers (F5) (F5 ML) +8.3%

[OUT] Will Vest (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Jeremy Cano (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Burch Smith (Detroit Tigers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Comerica Park (PITCHER)
Jackson Jobe xFIP 4.14
Sean Newcomb xFIP 3.91
Detroit Tigers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 50% (team 101)
Chicago White Sox pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 50% (team 101)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Jackson Jobe (RHP)
Away SP: Sean Newcomb (LHP)

C St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (F5) (F5 ML) +8.2%

[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Wrigley Field (HITTER)
Clay Holmes xFIP 3.86
Matthew Liberatore xFIP 4.23
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 96)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Clay Holmes (RHP)
Away SP: Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

2:20 PM · decision fi-894fac301da9937f

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-3.2%

Effective Edge

-4.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -105

Raw Edge

-1.5%

Effective Edge

-3.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Matthew Liberatore · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Clay Holmes · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Matthew Liberatore / Clay Holmes announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMatthew Liberatore / Clay Holmes announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds

6:11 PM · decision fi-0f5b162e3dc942dd

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +128

Raw / Effective Edge

+4.9% / +3.9%

Away starter: Sandy Alcantara · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Chase Burns · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0395 after 0.0100 buffer
Sandy Alcantara / Chase Burns announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 4 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0395 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSSandy Alcantara / Chase Burns announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-154	+115	56.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-157	+116	56.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates

6:41 PM · decision fi-caf6a669fc9ae916

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.7%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -122

Raw Edge

-3.3%

Effective Edge

-4.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.3%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +105

Raw Edge

-0.5%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Jake Bennett · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bubba Chandler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Jake Bennett / Bubba Chandler announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJake Bennett / Bubba Chandler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers

6:41 PM · decision fi-eb3954f68028f227

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -112

Raw Edge

-2.1%

Effective Edge

-4.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-5.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sean Newcomb · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jackson Jobe · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Newcomb / Jackson Jobe announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Newcomb / Jackson Jobe announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-112	-118	49.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

7:11 PM · decision fi-a494a26d5510b17c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Home starter: Steven Matz · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:21:00.656219Z

both starters must be officially announced

0 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (0 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
No paired first-inning quotes were available.

San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians

7:11 PM · decision fi-dbc4a854c7f7f553

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.1%

Fair Odds

-109

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -125

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-4.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

47.9%

Fair Odds

+109

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +124

Raw Edge

+3.3%

Effective Edge

+2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael King · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Gavin Williams · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.521
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael King / Gavin Williams announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.521

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael King / Gavin Williams announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-147	+110	55.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-158	+124	57.8%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

7:11 PM · decision fi-f9264442f00eff61

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -105

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-2.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-4.3%

Effective Edge

-6.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Andrew Alvarez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robert Stock · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andrew Alvarez / Robert Stock announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndrew Alvarez / Robert Stock announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-112	-118	49.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-105	-125	48.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-16c20522e3a5156d

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Brandon Pfaadt · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:21:00.656219Z

both starters must be officially announced

1 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays

7:16 PM · decision fi-79b174f8a1a25909

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-2.8%

Effective Edge

-4.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.7%

Effective Edge

-2.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Gerrit Cole · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Shane Bieber · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Gerrit Cole / Shane Bieber announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGerrit Cole / Shane Bieber announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-127	-106	52.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

8:11 PM · decision fi-bfaa95ddd831f464

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-2.8%

Effective Edge

-4.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-0.2%

Effective Edge

-1.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: George Kirby · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Peter Lambert · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
George Kirby / Peter Lambert announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGeorge Kirby / Peter Lambert announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-108	51.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels

9:39 PM · decision fi-bfad4a9072b0f63d

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+1.0%

Effective Edge

-0.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-4.1%

Effective Edge

-5.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Seth Lugo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Grayson Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Seth Lugo / Grayson Rodriguez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSeth Lugo / Grayson Rodriguez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-105	-127	47.8%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-109	-122	48.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+106	-136	45.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

Texas Rangers @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-36ace2eefc8637c3

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Kumar Rocker · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:21:00.656219Z

both starters must be officially announced

0 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (0 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
No paired first-inning quotes were available.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM · decision fi-48e194b128e13957

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.1%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-1.9%

Effective Edge

-3.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.9%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Robert Gasser · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Yoshinobu Yamamoto · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Robert Gasser / Yoshinobu Yamamoto announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.511

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRobert Gasser / Yoshinobu Yamamoto announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

10:16 PM · decision fi-8bf6c4e2a54b0688

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.0%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-2.6%

Effective Edge

-3.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.0%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +110

Raw Edge

+0.4%

Effective Edge

-0.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Kyle Freeland · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Landen Roupp · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-13 · updated 2026-08-14T08:19:10.477542Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.520
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kyle Freeland / Landen Roupp announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.520

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKyle Freeland / Landen Roupp announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-127	-104	52.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 194 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=194
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	37.6%	20.8%	+16.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	-	Matthew Liberatore (L)	theScore Bet	+360	-	37.5%	19.9%	+17.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	37.3%	26.3%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Seth Lugo (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	35.1%	18.4%	+16.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	-	Robert Stock (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.7%	20.8%	+13.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+280	-	34.0%	24.3%	+9.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.8%	21.7%	+12.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	-	Kyle Freeland (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.0%	16.7%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	-	Matthew Liberatore (L)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.3%	19.1%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	-	Sandy Alcantara (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	30.7%	19.1%	+11.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Trent Grisham	New York Yankees	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	-	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	30.5%	19.9%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	-	Sandy Alcantara (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	30.5%	19.9%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.8%	18.4%	+11.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	-	Bubba Chandler (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	29.5%	18.4%	+11.1%	98	-
Strong HR Chance	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	George Kirby (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	29.5%	26.3%	+3.1%	98	-
Strong HR Chance	Jackson Merrill	San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	-	Gavin Williams (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	29.1%	16.7%	+12.4%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Julio Rodriguez	Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	-	Peter Lambert (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	28.4%	19.1%	+9.3%	95	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Robert Gasser (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	28.4%	20.8%	+7.6%	95	-
Strong HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	28.3%	18.4%	+9.9%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	27.9%	20.8%	+7.2%	93	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	100	87.8%	-722	Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Kazuma Okamoto, Spencer Jones	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	87.8%	-718	Mike Trout, Jac Caglianone, Zach Neto, Carter Jensen	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	100	87.1%	-674	-	Tropicana Field HR factor 0.94 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	99	86.1%	-619	-	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	100	86.1%	-619	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson	Wrigley Field HR factor 1.05 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	100	85.0%	-566	Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Hector Rodriguez, JJ Bleday	Great American Ball Park HR factor 1.15	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	84.8%	-560	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	100	84.8%	-559	Jackson Merrill, Nathaniel Lowe, Chase DeLauter, Manny Machado	Progressive Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	100	84.6%	-550	Rafael Devers, Hunter Goodman, Zac Veen, Bryce Eldridge	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	100	84.4%	-542	Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Yainer Diaz	Unknown Venue HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	91	83.8%	-516	-	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	100	83.0%	-487	CJ Abrams, Eddy Alvarez, Daylen Lile, Abimelec Ortiz	Citi Field HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	100	81.0%	-426	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Brandon Lowe, Henry Davis	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	80.5%	-413	Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Dillon Dingler	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Mike Trout — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels (+340) HR chance 37.6% | edge +16.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.194, OPS 0.837, ISO 0.204, TB/G 1.62
Statcast: barrel 16.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.4/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.510
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/103 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0277, xFIP 4.52, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.26, whiff 18.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.812, ISO 0.210 (335 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_rhb: HR/BF 0.0394

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (+360) HR chance 37.5% | edge +17.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.221, OPS 0.920, ISO 0.258, TB/G 2.04
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.473
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/122 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0411, xFIP 4.23, K% 22.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.342, xERA 5.02, whiff 23.6%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.873, K% 16.7% (18 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.040, OPS 0.934, ISO 0.211 (175 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels (+250) HR chance 37.3% | edge +11.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.186, OPS 0.806, ISO 0.217, TB/G 1.74
Statcast: barrel 14.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.2/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 17/113 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0381, xFIP 4.77, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.389, xERA 6.80, whiff 23.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.853, ISO 0.229 (308 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.479, xwOBA 0.343 (60 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Zach Neto — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels (+400) HR chance 35.1% | edge +16.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.170, OPS 0.723, ISO 0.190, TB/G 1.64
Statcast: barrel 11.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.3/109.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.387
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 19/118 (16%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0277, xFIP 4.52, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.349, xERA 5.26, whiff 18.3%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.800, K% 30.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.039, OPS 0.703, ISO 0.192 (387 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance CJ Abrams — Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (+340) HR chance 34.7% | edge +13.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.244, OPS 0.898, ISO 0.257, TB/G 2.05
Statcast: barrel 10.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.7/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.456
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 27/119 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0291, xFIP 5.23, K% 19.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.360, xERA 5.65, whiff 27.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.065, OPS 0.965, ISO 0.284 (352 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.517, xwOBA 0.339 (60 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+280) HR chance 34.0% | edge +9.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.233, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.252, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 16.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.4/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.573
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 26/112 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0382, xFIP 4.37, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.315, xERA 4.18, whiff 21.6%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 0.960, ISO 0.296 (170 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Sweeper: xSLG 0.470, xwOBA 0.333 (47 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (4 PA)

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (+320) HR chance 33.8% | edge +12.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.276, OPS 0.891, ISO 0.284, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 15.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.1/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.509
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 31/116 (27%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0496, xFIP 5.05, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.399, xERA 7.24, whiff 22.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.941, ISO 0.311 (324 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.404, xwOBA 0.336 (53 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Rafael Devers — Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (+450) HR chance 32.0% | edge +15.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.788, ISO 0.223, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 10.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.6/112.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.440
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/121 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0435, xFIP 4.21, K% 18.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.348, xERA 5.22, whiff 22.4%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.000, K% 30.0% (10 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.024, OPS 0.544, ISO 0.106 (166 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Weak batter split vs_lhp

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	+900	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate
Nasim Nunez	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	+900	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	+750	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Nick Gonzales	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	+700	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Cold recent HR form
Jakob Marsee	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	+600	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	+900	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	+475	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| BvP strikeout risk \| Cold recent HR form
Ezequiel Tovar	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	+700	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Sam Antonacci	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+750	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Andres Gimenez	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	+900	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Jackson Jobe	Sean Newcomb	0.91	19.5%	51.4%	-	+0.0%
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	6:41 PM	Bubba Chandler	Jake Bennett	0.96	19.0%	50.5%	-	+0.0%
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	7:11 PM	Robert Stock	Andrew Alvarez	0.93	17.0%	47.2%	-	+0.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	None	Brandon Pfaadt	1.03	16.2%	45.8%	-	+0.0%
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	8:11 PM	Peter Lambert	George Kirby	1.00	15.6%	44.5%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	10:16 PM	Landen Roupp	Kyle Freeland	0.82	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	7:11 PM	Gavin Williams	Michael King	0.95	15.2%	43.8%	-	+0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Robert Gasser	0.97	15.2%	43.8%	-	+0.0%
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	6:11 PM	Chase Burns	Sandy Alcantara	1.15	15.0%	43.5%	-	+0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	2:20 PM	Clay Holmes	Matthew Liberatore	1.05	13.9%	41.4%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Athletics	9:41 PM	None	Kumar Rocker	1.00	13.9%	41.3%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	7:11 PM	Steven Matz	None	0.94	12.9%	39.4%	-	+0.0%
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:16 PM	Shane Bieber	Gerrit Cole	0.96	12.2%	37.8%	-	+0.0%
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Grayson Rodriguez	Seth Lugo	0.98	12.2%	37.9%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

25 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins	65.3	66.9	68.5	3	Slider (52% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 20.7%, xwOBA 0.278, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres	61.6	69.1	58.0	5	Sweeper (43% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 30.7%, put-away 24.0%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	59.4	55.2	69.5	6	Split-Finger (32% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.276, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	58.7	48.8	71.5	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.0%, put-away 19.1%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners	56.8	51.5	63.5	7	Changeup (35% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	55.8	51.4	62.0	5	Curveball (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 19.4%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	55.3	49.9	63.5	5	Slider (26% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.7%, put-away 22.7%, xwOBA 0.288, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	54.8	45.0	70.5	5	Changeup (33% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.274, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	52.4	53.0	54.0	6	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 24.6%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds	51.9	45.6	59.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	50.7	45.5	55.5	7	Sweeper (27% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.304, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves	50.2	40.8	59.5	6	Curveball (33% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	49.2	53.4	47.0	5	Slider (37% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.321, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox	48.7	46.6	51.0	6	Slider (28% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians	48.2	52.7	46.0	5	Sweeper (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 18.4%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	47.9	54.8	42.0	6	Slider (40% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.7	41.7	50.0	5	Sweeper (26% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	45.1	42.0	49.0	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 21.1%, put-away 16.0%, xwOBA 0.317, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	43.7	47.6	36.5	8	Curveball (38% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.6%, xwOBA 0.342, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	42.4	50.3	27.5	5	Changeup (67% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 11.0%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	40.6	45.7	33.5	6	Curveball (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Steven Matz	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	38.9	42.5	34.5	4	Changeup (26% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 15.6%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels	36.3	37.5	33.0	8	Cutter (22% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 18.3%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.349, arsenal coverage 8 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals	31.8	46.4	13.0	4	Changeup (40% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.389, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	27.5	46.3	8.0	6	Curveball (36% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

25 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Brandon Pfaadt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves	R	13.5%	6.3	5.8	5.9	106	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jake Bennett	Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	17.6%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Clay Holmes	Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	21.7%	5.1	5.7	5.5	86	short	full	49.00	51.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Sean Newcomb	Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	L	19.6%	1.3	3.0	4.6	22	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.3 IP/start
Chase Burns	Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins	R	27.0%	5.2	5.6	5.5	87	normal	full	68.50	31.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Gavin Williams	Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres	R	36.8%	6.1	6.0	6.0	102	deep	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Freeland	Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	L	19.2%	6.0	5.4	5.5	101	deep	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jackson Jobe	Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox	R	22.7%	-	5.0	5.7	95	short	full	70.50	29.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 5.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Peter Lambert	Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners	R	24.2%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Seth Lugo	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels	R	17.0%	6.0	5.6	5.7	101	deep	full	33.00	67.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals	R	21.8%	4.8	4.6	4.6	80	short	full	13.00	87.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	22.5%	6.8	6.6	6.7	114	deep	full	69.50	30.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Sandy Alcantara	Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds	R	19.8%	6.6	6.5	6.6	111	deep	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Robert Gasser	Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	21.1%	4.6	5.2	5.0	77	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Robert Stock	New York Mets vs Washington Nationals	R	21.3%	4.0	4.0	5.2	67	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.0 IP/start
Gerrit Cole	New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	28.7%	6.2	5.8	6.0	104	deep	full	63.50	36.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Bubba Chandler	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox	R	20.9%	5.1	5.0	5.1	86	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Michael King	San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians	R	22.4%	5.6	5.7	5.7	94	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Landen Roupp	San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies	R	21.3%	5.1	5.4	5.3	86	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
George Kirby	Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	R	20.0%	5.6	6.0	5.9	94	normal	full	55.50	44.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Matthew Liberatore	St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs	L	23.2%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	36.50	63.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Steven Matz	Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles	L	18.5%	1.2	4.6	3.9	20	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Athletics	R	22.5%	5.1	4.9	5.0	86	short	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	R	19.1%	5.5	4.7	5.0	92	normal	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Andrew Alvarez	Washington Nationals vs New York Mets	L	19.5%	4.3	4.7	4.7	72	short	full	47.00	53.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

14/14 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over	Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.3	2.8	14.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.7	114	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.76 <= 3 min
Gavin Williams	Gavin Williams Over	San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	18.5	20.9	2.4	12.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.37 <= 3 min
Sandy Alcantara	Sandy Alcantara Over	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	18.5	20.7	2.2	11.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.6	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.17 <= 3 min
Landen Roupp	Landen Roupp Under	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	15.7	-1.8	10.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -1.80 <= 3 min
Michael King	Michael King Under	San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Chris Sale	Chris Sale Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	18.7	1.2	7.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Peter Lambert	Peter Lambert Under	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	17.5	16.8	-0.7	4.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Pfaadt	Brandon Pfaadt Over	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	18.0	0.5	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.9	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Gerrit Cole	Gerrit Cole Over	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	19.1	0.6	3.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
George Kirby	George Kirby Under	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	18.5	18.1	-0.4	2.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Chase Burns	Chase Burns Under	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	17.5	17.2	-0.3	1.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Seth Lugo	Seth Lugo Over	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	17.6	0.1	0.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Kyle Freeland	Kyle Freeland Under	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.5	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Jake Bennett	Jake Bennett Over	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.1%	B	MONITOR	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

139 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Francisco Alvarez	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.67	1.50	0.59	0.59	2.67 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Luis Garcia Jr.	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.57	1.48	0.55	0.55	2.64 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals @ New York Mets	Over 1.5	2.52	1.10	0.64	0.78	2.79 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.35	1.10	0.58	0.67	2.38 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Junior Caminero	Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays	Over 1.5	2.34	1.06	0.63	0.65	2.33 / Over	0.40	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Pete Crow-Armstrong	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.33	1.08	0.66	0.58	2.58 / Over	0.35	season_games=122,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Yainer Diaz	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.32	1.33	0.49	0.49	2.38 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Dillon Dingler	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.31	1.00	0.58	0.72	2.44 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Seiya Suzuki	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.29	1.04	0.60	0.65	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=104,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.26	1.00	0.61	0.66	2.74 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.25	1.09	0.51	0.65	2.43 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.24	1.17	0.62	0.45	2.62 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.23	1.23	0.57	0.43	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elly De La Cruz	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.20	1.05	0.63	0.52	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Sal Stewart	Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds	Over 1.5	2.20	0.97	0.53	0.69	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Gabriel Moreno	Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.19	1.09	0.53	0.57	2.18 / Over	0.40	season_games=93,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Kevin McGonigle	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.17	1.09	0.68	0.41	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.15	0.97	0.59	0.59	2.10 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ceddanne Rafaela	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.13	1.13	0.51	0.50	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.09	1.06	0.47	0.55	2.07 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.08	0.84	0.67	0.57	1.97 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nick Gonzales	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.08	1.14	0.52	0.41	1.89 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.07	0.96	0.51	0.60	2.19 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alex Bregman	St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs	Over 1.5	2.07	1.02	0.55	0.50	2.27 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros	Over 1.5	2.07	1.00	0.63	0.44	2.01 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes