MLB Bets 2026-08-12

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	860W–451L–0P	66%	-86.63 u	Last 14 days • 1311 settled
Grade A	22W–27L–0P	45%	-11.24 u
Grade B	836W–417L–0P	67%	-70.95 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3489W–2206L–8P	61%	-243.63 u	All-time • 5703 settled
Grade A	256W–203L–0P	56%	-11.56 u
Grade B	3231W–1996L–8P	62%	-227.63 u

83 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Alec Bohm	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	K Prop	Eric Lauer	4.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	K Prop	Luis Castillo	5.5	118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	K Prop	Robbie Ray	4.5	-161	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	K Prop	Zach Thornton	3.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	K Prop	Zack Wheeler	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Drew Rasmussen	2.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Jose Soriano	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Kyle Leahy	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Earned Run	Merrill Kelly	2.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Drew Rasmussen	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Kyle Leahy	5.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Hits Allow	Rhett Lowder	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Outs	Eric Lauer	17.5	112	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Walks	Shane Baz	1.5	-191	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-12	Pitcher Walks	Zebby Matthews	2.5	-178	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-11	K Prop	Cody Bradford	4.5	-143	-	LOSS	-1.000	Cody Bradford: 1.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	5.5	-156	-	WIN	+0.641	Cristopher Sánchez: 7.0 (line 5.5)
2026-08-11	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-148	-	LOSS	-1.000	Dylan Cease: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-11	K Prop	Nolan McLean	5.5	-157	-	LOSS	-1.000	Nolan McLean: 3.0 (line 5.5)
2026-08-11	K Prop	Paul Skenes	6.5	-140	-	LOSS	-1.000	Paul Skenes: 4.0 (line 6.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	547	55%	-22.99u	70	47%	-13.24u	259	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	484	58%	+14.70u	57	65%	+7.15u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	167	58%	+6.39u	16	81%	+6.75u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1905	73%	-52.54u	763	72%	-49.42u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	567	56%	-28.20u	118	55%	-8.99u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	412	60%	-11.42u	75	63%	+0.65u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	54	70%	-0.54u	10	50%	-3.01u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	30	44%	+2.54u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	3
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	6
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	122	48%	-13.65u	10	50%	-1.41u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	5	40%	-1.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	34	47%	-6.07u	20	45%	-4.30u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	593	52%	-58.09u	60	52%	-6.83u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 5 actionable / 27 total candidate(s); season N 547, 14d N 70	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 484, 14d N 57	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 167, 14d N 16	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 22 total candidate(s); season N 54, 14d N 10	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 243 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 30, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 122, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 20	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 114 total candidate(s); season N 593, 14d N 60	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 114 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 794 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 225 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 771 pitcher(s), 3408 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 582 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 1135 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 390 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 28 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 339 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 14/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 27 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 26 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 20 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 6 line(s)/3 game(s); Earned Runs 20 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 82, fanatics 13, bovada_direct 2, fanduel 2 \| missing: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2604 market side(s) checked \| 2604 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 14 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 114 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 627 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 57 \| batter pitch-type 582 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 239 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	1:40 PM	-102	-105	-1.5 (+152)	1.5 (-185)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	-155	+144	-1.5 (+109)	1.5 (-131)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	3:06 PM	-194	+180	-1.5 (-131)	1.5 (+109)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:40 PM	+158	-170	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	3:46 PM	-137	+127	-1.5 (+119)	1.5 (-144)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	4:10 PM	-114	+106	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:40 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+162)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+100	-120	-1.5 (+166)	1.5 (-203)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (-101)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	7:05 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	-126	+104	-1.5 (+139)	1.5 (-168)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+130	-157	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	+122	-147	1.5 (-168)	-1.5 (+139)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	+186	-229	1.5 (-115)	-1.5 (-105)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	-136	+113	-1.5 (+128)	1.5 (-155)	O/U 9.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 27 Grade B | 910 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135	K Prop	Zack Wheeler Over	PHI@CAR	2:15 PM	5.5	7.0	-135	DK Over 5.5 -135 \| exact	28.2%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -161, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade…	K Prop	Robbie Ray Over	BRE@PAD	4:10 PM	4.5	5.9	-161	FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 \| best price	31.3%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

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Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (19 play(s))

Batter Hits - Dylan Crews Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Xavier Edwards Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Brandon Nimmo Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Willson Contreras Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jordan Walker Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Coby Mayo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Hao-Yu Lee Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Rhys Hoskins Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Alejandro Kirk Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Myles Straw Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brett Bateman Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jakob Marsee Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Chase Meidroth Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ernie Clement Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brooks Lee Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jarren Duran Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ivan Herrera Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - JJ Wetherholt Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brayan Rocchio Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 (-135) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-156	+120	-
BetRivers	5.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-135	+106	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-136	+106	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 28.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zack Wheeler: K/9 11.6, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.2% | put-away% 22.5% | xwOBA 0.257 | top pitch: Split-Finger (48% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 20.4%, active roster 19.0%/6 hitters, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.90 | Season Avg 6.95
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
K% trend: support +4.1 ppts (recent 34.7% vs season 30.6%, proj adj +2.0%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135 -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Robbie Ray Over 4.5 (-161) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -161

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-161	+126	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 31.3% vs 17% min; cushion +1.41K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.2% / under 41.8%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Robbie Ray: K/9 7.8, proj 5.9K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.8% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 76 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .522
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 76 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.3%, L7 27.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.6%/76 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.74
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -161, pitch-type boost on 11% usage pitch, expected IP 5.3 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (27 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Zach Thornton Over 3.5 (-142) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-142	+111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.1K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 46.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.3% / under 44.7%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, L7 23.1%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters)

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -142, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop missing SP stats -- downgraded for monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Eric Lauer Under 4.5 (-152) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
DK	4.5	+119	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-
Fanatics	4.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 30.1% vs 17% min; cushion -1.35K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eric Lauer: K/9 5.4, proj 3.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.9% | put-away% 12.3% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 30 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .443
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 30 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.1%, active roster 21.5%/6 hitters, BVP 40.0%/30 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.5% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/18 (83%) | Season 15/18 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.17
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 98 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ Heavy juice (-152); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Luis Castillo Under 5.5 (+118) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +118

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-151	+118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 26.3% vs 17% min; cushion -1.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Luis Castillo: K/9 7.2, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.337 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 24.2% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Luis Castillo: 77 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 11.7% | AVG .194 | OPS .629
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 77 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 23.7%, L7 27.6%, season 25.3%, BVP 14.3%/77 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 16/21 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Eric Lauer Under 17.5 (+112) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +112

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-150	+110	-
DK	17.5	-149	+112	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 13.451 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 23.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.6 IP (xFIP 5.43 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.1 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 30 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .443
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 40.0%/30 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.6%, split 5.5%, L7 8.2%, season 8.3%, BVP 3.3%/30 PA (adj 0.87x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 5.0 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/18 (67%) | Season 12/18 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 15.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 (-130) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 27.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 0.93, BB% 4.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .348 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Rhett Lowder Under 5.5 (-150) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.99 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.9%, L7 27.2%, season 24.0% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/20 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 4.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Kyle Leahy Under 5.5 (-158) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+119	-158	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 4.9 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 7.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .214 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 15.2%, season 22.9% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Walks — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Baz Over 1.5 (-191) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -191 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9126986326596382 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.6 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .273 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.1%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.0%, L7 9.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.9%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-191); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Zebby Matthews Under 2.5 (-178) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -178 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.899280975330633 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.2 IP (BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 40.1% / under 59.9%)
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.8%, L7 10.0%, season 10.2% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/15 (73%) | Season 11/15 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-178); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jose Soriano Over 1.5 (-152) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.53 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.72, ERA 3.04)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .940
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 21.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Drew Rasmussen Under 2.5 (-170) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.71 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.10, ERA 2.72)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .348 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 (-125) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -125 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.44 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.93, ERA 4.29)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 79 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .244 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.5%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 3.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 (-150) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.84, ERA 2.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .214 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 15.2%, season 22.9% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 14 play(s) (B 14)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-350) diff 71.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 23 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 30.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .895
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 99/118 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 99/118 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-310) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/110 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 93/110 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/112 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 93/112 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/116 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 95/116 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-310) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/116 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 95/116 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-310) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-300) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-400) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 82/110 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 82/110 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-400) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-475) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 88/112 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 88/112 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-475) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-300) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-300); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-330) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-330) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-280) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/120 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/120 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-280); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-316) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/105 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/48 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 81/105 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-316); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-500) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-500); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-425) diff 52.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (910 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 22 play(s) (B 5 | C 17)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 (-163) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 3.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+124	-
BetRivers	3.5	-165	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	-163	+127	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-160	+124	Recommended
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.5% / under 41.5%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Leahy: K/9 8.3, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 18.7% | xwOBA 0.348 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Changeup: 27.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Leahy: 14 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .214 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.1%, L7 15.2%, season 22.9%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 15.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
K% trend: support +5.3 ppts (recent 26.0% vs season 20.7%, proj adj +2.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Cal Quantrill Under 3.5 (-118) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-113	-113	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 18.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cal Quantrill: K/9 6.6, proj 2.9K over 4.3 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.7% | put-away% 13.9% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 64 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .298 | OPS .761
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.9%, L7 26.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 14.1%/64 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/24 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap -0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Shane Baz Over 4.5 (-125) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-125	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.61K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.4% / under 47.6%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shane Baz: K/9 8.5, proj 5.1K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.9% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.314 | top pitch: Curveball (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .273 | OPS .732
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.1%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.22
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5
K% trend: support +4.5 ppts (recent 25.2% vs season 20.7%, proj adj +2.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Will Warren Over 4.5 (-147) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -147

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-147	+115	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.1% / under 43.9%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Will Warren: K/9 8.8, proj 5.0K over 5.1 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 19.7% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: Changeup (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 28.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Will Warren: 37 PA | K% 29.7% | BB% 5.4% | AVG .176 | OPS .567
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 37 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 18.3%, L7 22.2%, season 22.9%, BVP 29.7%/37 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.96
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Dustin May Over 4.5 (-121) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-121	-105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-120	-106	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.7% / under 48.3%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dustin May: K/9 8.8, proj 4.6K over 5.4 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 22.9% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 174 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .670
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 174 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.0%, L7 17.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.2%/174 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Janson Junk Under 4.5 (-159) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+124	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 19.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.86K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.1% / under 57.9%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Janson Junk: K/9 7.3, proj 3.6K over 4.8 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 16.3% | put-away% 15.1% | xwOBA 0.316 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Changeup: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.88
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 19.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Over 4.5 (-130) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 18.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
SP stats not found -- used league avg K/9 8.5
Savant: pitcher not in dataset — projection uses FanGraphs K/9 only
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6%, active roster 23.0%/6 hitters (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.0% (6 hitters)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 18.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 18.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jose Soriano Over 5.5 (+101) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-102	-125	-
Fanatics	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 16.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.91K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jose Soriano: K/9 8.2, proj 6.4K over 5.5 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 31.6% | put-away% 20.1% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Curveball (47% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs José Soriano: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .940
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.6%, L7 19.9%, season 21.7% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.65
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.9 ppts (recent 17.6% vs season 24.5%, proj adj -3.4%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Carmen Mlodzinski Under 3.5 (+101) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	-115	-115	-
DK	3.5	-129	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	3.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 2.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 16.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 53.1% / under 46.9%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Carmen Mlodzinski: K/9 7.3, proj 2.9K over 4.0 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.6% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.340 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 20.4%, split 18.8%, L7 21.8%, season 21.6% (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 19/26 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.96
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -1.16 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — George Klassen Under 4.5 (-110) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.3% vs 17% min; cushion -0.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
George Klassen: K/9 9.0, proj 3.9K over 3.4 IP (season 2.9 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/3 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 31.7% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.411 | top pitch: Slider (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Slider: 34.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.0%, L7 22.7%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/3 (100%) | L10 3/3 (100%) | L20 3/3 (100%) | Season 3/3 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 3.00
Prop trend: K L10: 3/3 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 (-110) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -110

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-111	-116	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-105	-125	-
DK	4.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Framber Valdez: K/9 7.3, proj 3.9K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Curveball (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 117 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .248 | OPS .764
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 117 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 17.5%, L7 20.2%, season 22.0%, active roster 18.2%/7 hitters, BVP 17.1%/117 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.40 | Season Avg 4.48
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 (+110) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	+110	-141	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	Recommended
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.65K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tyler Mahle: K/9 8.8, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 22.1% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Split-Finger (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Split-Finger: 40.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .244 | OPS .701
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 45 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.6%, L7 23.1%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.3%/6 hitters, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 23.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.16
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 (+102) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.6% / under 53.4%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ranger Suarez: K/9 10.0, proj 5.0K over 4.8 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 22.4% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Curveball (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Curveball: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 60 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .175 | OPS .400
BVP K adjustment: 1.07x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.6%, split 17.6%, L7 22.8%, season 19.6%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 30.0%/60 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 (+130) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	5.5	+130	-166	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 10.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 41.1% / under 58.9%); own-line consensus 0/1 OVER (1 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Rasmussen: K/9 10.1, proj 6.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.4% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.272 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .348 | OPS 1.027
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 24 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.91
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
K% trend: support +5.0 ppts (recent 31.8% vs season 26.8%, proj adj +2.5%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — David Peterson Under 4.5 (-130) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 9.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
David Peterson: K/9 7.1, proj 4.1K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.341 | top pitch: Curveball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Washington Nationals whiff% vs Curveball: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 109 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.1% | AVG .234 | OPS .607
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 109 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 26.3%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 13.8%/109 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.83
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Zebby Matthews Under 5.5 (-139) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+118	-154	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	-
DK	5.5	+109	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Zebby Matthews: K/9 7.7, proj 5.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 17.1% | xwOBA 0.335 | top pitch: Curveball (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Curveball: 35.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.87
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Rhett Lowder Under 4.5 (-160) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 4.25 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 3.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	3.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+140	-185	-
DK	4.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 7.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.9% / under 58.1%); own-line consensus 1/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Rhett Lowder: K/9 7.0, proj 4.2K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.4% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.351 | top pitch: Slider (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Slider: 36.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 28% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.9%, L7 27.2%, season 24.0% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/20 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.65
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jack Perkins Under 4.5 (-162) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -162

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 4.17 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 3.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	3.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+125	-165	-
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-162	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.5% / under 58.5%); own-line consensus 1/2 OVER (2 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Jack Perkins: K/9 10.2, proj 4.3K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.1% | put-away% 23.1% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Changeup: 24.1% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.167
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.4%, L7 16.4%, season 18.9%, active roster 15.7%/6 hitters (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.5%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 16.4% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.7% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 21/28 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 3.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +2.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 (+109) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +109

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-139	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Merrill Kelly: K/9 6.5, proj 4.3K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.9% | put-away% 14.6% | xwOBA 0.393 | top pitch: Slider (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 79 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .244 | OPS .728
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 79 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 22.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6%, active roster 23.0%/6 hitters, BVP 21.5%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.0% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.81
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
K% trend: support +4.0 ppts (recent 19.4% vs season 15.4%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 (-165) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	+129	-165	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+126	-162	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.08K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 41.2% / under 58.8%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Feltner: K/9 6.3, proj 3.4K over 4.7 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 15.7% | xwOBA 0.355 | top pitch: Changeup (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Changeup: 22.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Feltner: 39 PA | K% 23.1% | BB% 17.9% | AVG .129 | OPS .501
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.9%, split 17.5%, L7 20.2%, season 19.3%, active roster 17.1%/6 hitters, BVP 23.1%/39 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.4%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 20.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.1% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.47
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (-125) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -125

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+113	-147	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	-102	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.6% / under 52.4%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Foster Griffin: K/9 7.7, proj 5.5K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.4% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.312 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 10% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.0%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.30
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Miller Over 5.5 (-116) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-120	-
DK	5.5	-116	-110	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 0.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.02K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Miller: K/9 8.0, proj 5.5K over 5.5 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 18.8% | xwOBA 0.258 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Split-Finger: 25.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .120 | OPS .314
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 19.9%, L7 27.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/14 (57%) | Season 8/14 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.64
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
K% trend: headwind -11.5 ppts (recent 14.3% vs season 25.8%, proj adj -5.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under 17.5 (+110) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 14.901 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.0 IP (default starter baseline); leash adj +0.0 IP (no recent-form adjustment); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.20 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.0 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.8% / under 44.2%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.0 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, L7 7.0%, season 8.1% (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Merrill Kelly Under 17.5 (+110) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-141	+105	-
DK	17.5	-146	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 15.001 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.4 IP (xFIP 4.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.5% / under 44.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103) | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 86
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 79 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .244 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.5%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.8%, split 8.2%, L7 7.0%, season 8.1%, BVP 1.3%/79 PA (adj 0.89x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.70 | Season Avg 17.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.50 <= 3 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.50 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dustin May Under 17.5 (-101) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-104	-
DK	17.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 15.872 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.92 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.0% / under 47.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.2 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 174 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.0%, L7 17.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.2%/174 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.0%, L7 8.9%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.9%/174 PA (adj 1.04x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 14.50 | Season Avg 15.68
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.18 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Drew Rasmussen Over 17.5 (-185) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -185

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 18.421 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.10 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 91
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Rasmussen: 24 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 4.2% | AVG .348 | OPS 1.027
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 23.0%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 20.8%/24 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.9%, split 14.2%, L7 4.5%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.2%/24 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 16.95
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Foster Griffin Over 17.5 (-158) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	-
DK	17.5	-158	+119	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.067 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.74 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.0%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.3%, L7 9.9%, season 9.4% (adj 1.11x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 17.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.01 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Framber Valdez Under 17.5 (+115) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 17.259 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.15 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 117 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .248 | OPS .764
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.5%, L7 20.2%, season 22.0%, BVP 17.1%/117 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 9.3%, L7 12.0%, season 9.7%, BVP 8.6%/117 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 16.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shane Baz Under 17.5 (+119) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +119

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-165	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-158	+119	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-160	+122	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.381999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.13 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.3% / under 42.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.9 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .273 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.1%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 8.0%, L7 9.8%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.9%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 17.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Zack Wheeler Over 17.5 (-177) diff 0.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -177

Selected market: Over 59.7% / Under 40.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-175	+135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-177	+132	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-178	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.505 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.2 IP (recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.85 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.7% / under 40.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 77)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.2 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 77
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 20.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 8.9%, L7 9.3%, season 8.6%, BVP 4.5%/22 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/19 (68%) | Season 13/19 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 17.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 10 play(s) (C 10)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zach Thornton Under 5.5 (-110) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.93 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (LOW; default 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
SP stats not found -- used league averages
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, L7 23.1%, season 22.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Miller Under 5.5 (-165) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 4.9%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .120 | OPS .314
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 19.9%, L7 27.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — David Peterson Under 5.5 (-138) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.97 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.36, BB% 9.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.8% / under 54.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 109 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.1% | AVG .234 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 26.3%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 13.8%/109 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.90 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Dustin May Under 5.5 (-133) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.30, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 174 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.0%, L7 17.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.2%/174 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Zebby Matthews Over 5.5 (+119) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+119	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.49, BB% 7.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Baz Under 5.5 (-112) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-119	-112	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.26, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.7% / under 49.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .273 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.1%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 3/10 under 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Framber Valdez Over 5.5 (-120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	-
DK	5.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.98 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.33, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 117 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .248 | OPS .764
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.5%, L7 20.2%, season 22.0%, BVP 17.1%/117 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Foster Griffin Under 5.5 (+116) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +116

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	-
DK	5.5	-154	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.96 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.21, BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.7% / under 43.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.0%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Janson Junk Under 5.5 (-165) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.15 over 4.6 IP (WHIP 1.43, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.8% / under 57.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 (+100) Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.6%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Merrill Kelly: 79 PA | K% 21.5% | BB% 1.3% | AVG .244 | OPS .728
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6%, BVP 21.5%/79 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Framber Valdez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.07229458082617 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 117 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .248 | OPS .764
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.5%, L7 20.2%, season 22.0%, BVP 17.1%/117 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 9.3%, L7 12.0%, season 9.7%, BVP 8.6%/117 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Dustin May Over 1.5 (-111) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.7610827561605675 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 174 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.0%, L7 17.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.2%/174 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.0%, L7 8.9%, season 9.1%, BVP 6.9%/174 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Robbie Ray Over 2.5 (+107) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.831026358823202 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.50 over 5.1 IP (BB% 11.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 76 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .522
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.3%, L7 27.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.6%/76 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 11.5%, L7 11.1%, season 10.7%, BVP 7.9%/76 PA (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Foster Griffin Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5596693624421913 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.25 over 5.6 IP (BB% 5.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.0%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 11.3%, L7 9.9%, season 9.4% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 16 play(s) (C 16)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Miller Under 2.5 (+100) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.35 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.61, ERA 4.12)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Miller: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 3.9% | AVG .120 | OPS .314
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 19.9%, L7 27.2%, season 24.6%, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eric Lauer Over 2.5 (+101) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+101	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.53 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 5.43, ERA 4.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.4% / under 53.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Eric Lauer: 30 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 3.3% | AVG .138 | OPS .443
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.5%, L7 18.0%, season 21.1%, BVP 40.0%/30 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cal Quantrill Under 2.5 (-160) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.67 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 4.87, ERA 4.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Cal Quantrill: 64 PA | K% 14.1% | BB% 6.2% | AVG .298 | OPS .761
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 24.9%, L7 26.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 14.1%/64 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 21/24 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zebby Matthews Over 2.5 (-128) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.02 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.24, ERA 5.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Zebby Matthews: 12 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 16.7% | AVG .100 | OPS .350
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dustin May Under 2.5 (-155) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.92, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Dustin May: 174 PA | K% 17.2% | BB% 6.9% | AVG .239 | OPS .670
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 21.0%, L7 17.5%, season 21.8%, BVP 17.2%/174 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Janson Junk Under 2.5 (-170) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.41 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.35, ERA 4.50)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 103)
BVP (active roster) vs Janson Junk: 9 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 11.1% | AVG .375 | OPS .944
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.2%, L7 28.0%, season 24.3% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — George Klassen Under 2.5 (-106) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-125	-106	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.82 over 3.4 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 5.68)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.4 IP (HIGH; season 2.9 IP/GS; recent 2.7 IP/3 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 23.0%, L7 22.7%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/3 (67%) | L10 2/3 (67%) | L20 2/3 (67%) | Season 2/3 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/3 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Foster Griffin Under 2.5 (-109) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.76 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.74, ERA 3.87)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.2% / under 48.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 25.0%, L7 19.8%, season 22.6% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 (-140) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.37 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.74, ERA 5.51)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 22.9%, L7 27.2%, season 24.0% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Zack Wheeler Over 1.5 (-170) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.64 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 2.85, ERA 3.25)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Zack Wheeler: 22 PA | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | AVG .238 | OPS .558
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 19.6%, L7 20.2%, season 20.4%, BVP 18.2%/22 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ranger Suarez Over 1.5 (-138) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.40 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 3.27, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 3.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.2% / under 45.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Ranger Suarez: 60 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 1.7% | AVG .175 | OPS .400
Opponent K profile: composite 20.8%, split 17.6%, L7 22.8%, season 19.6%, BVP 30.0%/60 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Robbie Ray Under 2.5 (-118) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.28 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.81, ERA 2.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Robbie Ray: 76 PA | K% 31.6% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .171 | OPS .522
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.3%, L7 27.7%, season 21.4%, BVP 31.6%/76 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — David Peterson Under 2.5 (-116) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.35 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.18, ERA 4.05)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 15.8 outs/5.3 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs David Peterson: 109 PA | K% 13.8% | BB% 10.1% | AVG .234 | OPS .607
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 26.3%, L7 24.3%, season 21.5%, BVP 13.8%/109 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.74
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tyler Mahle Under 2.5 (-170) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.00 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Tyler Mahle: 45 PA | K% 24.4% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .244 | OPS .701
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 21.6%, L7 23.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 24.4%/45 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/19 (42%) | Season 8/19 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.84
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Baz Under 2.5 (-104) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 3.22)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.9 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Shane Baz: 38 PA | K% 21.1% | BB% 7.9% | AVG .273 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.1%, L7 21.1%, season 21.4%, BVP 21.1%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Framber Valdez Under 2.5 (-158) Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.03 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.15, ERA 3.73)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Framber Valdez: 117 PA | K% 17.1% | BB% 8.6% | AVG .248 | OPS .764
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.5%, L7 20.2%, season 22.0%, BVP 17.1%/117 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 22 play(s) (C 22)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake Mangum Under 1.5 (-218) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+162	-218	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-257) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 -250; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.87 (AVG 0.216)
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 5/30 (17%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/62 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 46/57 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.89 | Day Batter Hits: 95/119 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Dylan Crews Under 1.5 (-272) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -272 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+199	-272	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-272) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -272

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Recommended
DK	1.5	+199	-272	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.235)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389 (27 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.171
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/31 (23%) | L5 4/15 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 70/88 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/43 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 36/45 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Hits: 70/88 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-268) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.270)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 6/18 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/119 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 50/62 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 90/119 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-252) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+186	-252	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.241)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.359 (62 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/38 (16%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/117 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/60 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 91/117 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-233) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -233 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+173	-233	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.262)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.301 (16 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/120 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 41/62 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 86/120 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-258) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -258

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -258 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+190	-258	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.284)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.213 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/36 (19%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/120 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/61 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 88/120 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-267) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+197	-267	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.262)
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 88/118 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-200) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.277)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315 (53 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/39 (23%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/119 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 44/60 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 86/119 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-260) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.293 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 82/116 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-250) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+184	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.281)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 38 PA | 8/34 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .669
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/40 (22%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/119 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.18 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 86/119 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-261) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+180	-245	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.00 (AVG 0.249)
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.281 (87 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/36 (19%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/115 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/59 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 83/115 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-249) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+184	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.285)
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/38 (32%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/120 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 46/61 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 87/120 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-231) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -231

Selected market: Over 34.6% / Under 65.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+171	-231	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+170	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.249)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 5/22 (23%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 44/56 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 86/117 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-200) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.307)
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.249 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 19/41 (46%) | L5 10/22 (46%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 32/55 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 72/112 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-246) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+182	-246	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.339 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/92 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 33/46 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 61/92 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-180) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.301)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.332 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/45 (29%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 77/114 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-268) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.396 (111 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/35 (29%) | L5 4/18 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/102 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter Hits: 35/48 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 72/102 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-235) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -235 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+174	-235	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.303)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.237 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 18/44 (41%) | L5 10/21 (48%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/105 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 73/105 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-207) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.314)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.226 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/44 (18%) | L5 2/23 (9%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter Hits: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter Hits: 69/113 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 (-241) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -241 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+178	-241	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.06 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.06 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.423 (63 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/37 (43%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.06
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.14 | Day Batter Hits: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 229 play(s) (C 229)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-550) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 95/119 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-425) diff 49.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/64 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 84/116 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-500) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-354) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .325
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/118 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/118 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-369) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+253	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/115 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 84/115 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-340) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-230) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/100 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/100 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (+127) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +127

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+127	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/55 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 25/52 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 45/107 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.55

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-200) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 83/115 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 83/115 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-425) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-255) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-215) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-225) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-200) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-310) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/118 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 87/118 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-195) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.71x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+100) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/50 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.76 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 55/101 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-500) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-320) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 85/119 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-340) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-155) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-225) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Bericoto Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-425) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Knizner Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-300) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/110 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 61/119 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.77 | Day Batter Walks: 61/119 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/120 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 45/62 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 88/120 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-225) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+160	-225	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 81/116 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 81/116 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-170) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-255) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-255) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-375) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-375) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-240) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 77/119 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/65 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 77/119 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-245) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-425) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 74/112 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/109 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 82/109 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-280) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/102 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 74/102 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-130) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-200) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-245) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zac Veen Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (-125) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.68 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/116 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 53/116 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-255) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-270) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/118 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 77/118 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-375) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-500) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-310) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-550) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-180) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-265) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-135) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-255) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-500) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-150) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-550) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarred Kelenic Under 0.5 (-230) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-300) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/114 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 82/114 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-285) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-195) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/103 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 40/53 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 76/103 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-500) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-270) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-210) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-400) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-280) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-140) diff 34.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-265) diff 34.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/115 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 84/115 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-245) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/98 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 71/98 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 76/115 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-215) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/119 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 81/119 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-195) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-200) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-280) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-265) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-320) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 79/119 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/64 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 79/119 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-255) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/111 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 85/111 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/118 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 86/118 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-200) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-245) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-320) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-255) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-575) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-320) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-425) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-230) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esteury Ruiz Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-425) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 9.0% (walk adj 1.06x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 31 PA | 5/27 | HR 0 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .475
BVP walk adjustment: 0.91x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 84/117 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-110) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-280) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-300) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-475) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-330) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-525) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-340) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-350) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-475) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-425) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-185) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-265) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/112 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 73/112 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-240) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+170) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 51/117 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-181) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+130	-181	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-185) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+133	-185	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-196) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -196 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -196 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+141	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-213) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.8% / Under 63.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+152	-213	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-234) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+166	-234	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-247) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+175	-247	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-282) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -282

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+198	-282	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+209	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-358) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+247	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-361) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+248	-361	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-395) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -395

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+269	-395	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-437) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+295	-437	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-202) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+144	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 79/119 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 79/119 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-195) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 80/115 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .695
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 78/110 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 78/110 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 81/112 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-550) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-225) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-180) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-475) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-475) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-215) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP BB% 7.1% (walk adj 0.83x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/90 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 57/90 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-320) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/115 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 85/115 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-225) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 62/99 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.48

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-215) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.5% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/107 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.49

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-320) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 75/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-340) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -340 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 44 PA | 12/42 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .794
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 44 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/118 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/60 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 74/118 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-340) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 75/118 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-153) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -153

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+110	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-154) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+111	-154	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-212) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+151	-212	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-215) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+154	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lockridge Under 0.5 (-306) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -306 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.7% / Under 70.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -306 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-318) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -318

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -318 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+221	-318	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-325) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+225	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-337) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-376) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -376

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -376 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-376	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-450) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-230) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-300) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-200) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-280) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-230) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Pinckney Under 0.5 (-475) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-425) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-215) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-375) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .686
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-242) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -242 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-242	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-350) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 26/48 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 63/102 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-210) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-140) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.5% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 68/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 68/114 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 (-110) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .700
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/117 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/60 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 23/57 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 48/117 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-215) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-340) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-155) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-245) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-280) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-283) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 38 PA | 8/34 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .669
BVP walk adjustment: 1.08x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/119 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/60 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/119 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-245) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/114 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 72/114 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-346) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -346

Selected market: Over 27.6% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+239	-346	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP walk adjustment: 0.92x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+145) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +145

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 77/115 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-140) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryan King: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 75/120 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 75/120 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-185) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/117 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 76/117 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-120) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Base projection 0.69 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 over 0.5 (62%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 63/115 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-165) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/99 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 31/49 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 59/99 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+140) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 54/119 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 27/60 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63 | Day Batter Walks: 54/119 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+105) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 7.3% (walk adj 0.86x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/121 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/62 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Walks: 61/121 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+155) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/59 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 45/116 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-170) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP BB% 10.4% (walk adj 1.22x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 81/114 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+105) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 19 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS .691
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/90 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 20/45 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 45/90 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-150) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/108 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/58 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 71/108 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-210) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/120 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/61 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 77/120 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+165) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.3% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/56 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (+105) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/116 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 56/116 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+160) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/119 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 47/119 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Over 0.5 (+104) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+104	-144	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.49x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 34/111 (31%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/61 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 15/50 over 0.5 (30%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 34/111 over 0.5 (31%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-225) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/120 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 31/59 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 74/120 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-300) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-245) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/102 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 28/48 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 63/102 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+130) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/120 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 25/61 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 47/120 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-340) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/97 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/52 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 61/97 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+105) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 51/110 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+105) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 7.5% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/65 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.74 | Day Batter Walks: 63/118 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-193) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+138	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/120 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 73/120 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-240) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.59
Base projection 0.59 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.77x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/121 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 under 0.5 (47%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter Walks: 39/61 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/121 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-210) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP BB% 7.7% (walk adj 0.90x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/59 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/115 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (-115) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/102 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 14/51 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 40/102 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-340) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-170) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP BB% 7.8% (walk adj 0.91x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 66/113 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/56 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 66/113 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-270) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP BB% 9.6% (walk adj 1.13x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-240) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/56 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.70 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 61/115 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-207) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+148	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.5% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/86 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 34/41 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 60/86 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-245) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.171
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/88 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 27/45 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 51/88 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+120) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/117 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/58 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 49/117 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+105) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/116 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/56 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 25/60 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 44/116 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-265) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/87 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 28/43 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 55/87 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-255) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/53 under 0.5 (49%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 66/110 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Over 0.5 (+150) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 35/92 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/46 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 16/46 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 35/92 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 114 play(s) (C 114)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-153) diff 65.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.423, xSLG 0.608 (63 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/114 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 57/114 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-145) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.358 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 27/41 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 51/86 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-106) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.304 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/111 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 57/111 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elias Diaz Over 1.5 (+130) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.448 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 66/114 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-129) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.7% / Under 47.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.376, xSLG 0.559 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 52/115 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Lowe Over 1.5 (+125) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.345, xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-141) diff 55.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.484 (111 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/102 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 27/48 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 58/102 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-134) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/110 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 58/110 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+127) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.176, xSLG 0.212 (22 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 74/116 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/60 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 74/116 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-155) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.226, xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/113 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 62/113 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+134) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.281, xSLG 0.353 (87 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.49 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-128) diff 51.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.390, xSLG 0.510 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/121 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 62/121 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-135) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.241, xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/120 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 64/120 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-147) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.375 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-103) diff 50.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.293 (81 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 53/115 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 50.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.75 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.318 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+106) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.43
Base projection 2.43 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.447, xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/116 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/64 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 71/116 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+104) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.455 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (-140) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/120 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 64/120 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-108) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.477 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 59/116 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-113) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+100) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.355 (64 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+103) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.379, xSLG 0.548 (108 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-104) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.307 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 60/116 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-106) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.212, xSLG 0.248 (37 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 66/115 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 66/115 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-118) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.706 (30 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 23 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 30.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .895
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/118 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.03 | Day Batter HRR: 52/118 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-122) diff 38.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.353 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-129) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.413, xSLG 0.536 (180 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/101 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 48/101 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-151) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.389 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.18 | Away Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 63/119 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-122) diff 36.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.341 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/102 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 23/48 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 52/102 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-147) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.314 (47 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 38 PA | 8/34 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .669
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/119 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 68/119 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-122) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.482 (130 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 59/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-120) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/116 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 63/116 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-146) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.355, xSLG 0.475 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 62/117 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-135) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.171
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/88 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 42/88 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-107) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.440 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 59/115 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-109) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 66/119 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/65 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 66/119 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-147) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-106) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.492 (29 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .325
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/118 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.97 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 59/118 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-119) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/105 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 46/105 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (-125) diff 25.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 57/120 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-111) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/116 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 50/116 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-150) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.213, xSLG 0.254 (17 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 62/120 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+100) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.404, xSLG 0.588 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-126) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.369, xSLG 0.429 (128 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/100 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 53/100 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.524 (116 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+100) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.212, xSLG 0.191 (55 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 44 PA | 12/42 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .794
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 44 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (+125) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.315 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (+121) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.345 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-144) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.293 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+101) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/119 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/64 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 58/119 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-105) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.378, xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+100) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.136, xSLG 0.166 (43 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (-114) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/118 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 59/118 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+108) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 61/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+135) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/87 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 20/43 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter HRR: 41/87 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-102) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 55/114 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (+104) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.394 (15 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/90 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/40 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 46/90 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-140) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Under 2.5 (-154) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.27 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.465 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 29/59 under 2.5 (49%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 under 2.5 (54%), avg 2.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-175) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.110, xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 53/112 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/60 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 53/112 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-130) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-119) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+103) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-114) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 47/110 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter HRR: 47/110 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (-115) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-140) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 3:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-119) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-114) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+103) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+104) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+125) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-107) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.185, xSLG 0.219 (25 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-112) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+112) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gary Sanchez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lockridge Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddy Fermin Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-115) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (-107) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eduardo Valencia Over 1.5 (-105) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hao-Yu Lee Over 1.5 (+100) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+122) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-123) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+134) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-138) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-136) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (-131) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-119) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-117) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+103) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (+110) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Heineman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 18 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-102) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+128) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Charles McAdoo Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+139) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Batter Total Bases — 243 play(s) (C 237 | D 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 352.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 2.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 352.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.26
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 83/119 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 34/60 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 83/119 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.26

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 352% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-150) diff 290.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 290.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 38/54 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 75/112 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.90

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 290% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 0.5 (-165) diff 289.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 289.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (87 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/115 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/59 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 77/115 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.80

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 290% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (-165) diff 272.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 272.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 272% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-140) diff 270.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.85 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 270.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.448 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 80/114 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.83

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 271% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 267.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 267.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (22 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 47/60 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 88/116 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.88

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-180) diff 256.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 256.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 66/102 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 66/102 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.50

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 256% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 251.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 251.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.633 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/57 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 76/109 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.64

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 251% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 0.5 (-180) diff 245.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 245.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/64 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 42/52 over 0.5 (81%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 86/116 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.90

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 246% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrés Chaparro Over 0.5 (-180) diff 232.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Harry Ford Over 0.5 (-165) diff 232.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Pinckney Over 0.5 (-140) diff 232.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 233% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-180) diff 221.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-115) diff 221.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-140) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (-140) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-160) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-190) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-180) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-110) diff 221.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 0.5 (-140) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-150) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-165) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 216.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market split 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market split 50.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-160) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lockridge Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-110) diff 212.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lane Thomas Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Romo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tristan Peters Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Hedges Over 0.5 (-130) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hao-Yu Lee Over 0.5 (-180) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eduardo Valencia Over 0.5 (-180) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-156) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 (-140) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Malgeri Over 0.5 (-110) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-125	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-190) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-110) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-180) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Heineman Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 (-190) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (-140) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-180) diff 203.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/120 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 80/120 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.48

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-150) diff 203.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/120 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 80/120 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.48

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (-180) diff 203.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/112 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 65/112 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.29

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 0.5 (-125) diff 198.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 198.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.347 (129 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 64/112 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 198.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 198.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-150) diff 191.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 191.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 69/116 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 191.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 191% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 182.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 182.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 19 PA | 8/19 | HR 2 | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.316
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 57/110 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 182.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 182.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Over 0.5 (-165) diff 181.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/90 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/50 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 26/40 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 59/90 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-140) diff 169.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/87 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 26/43 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 52/87 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-165) diff 165.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/60 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 63/119 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-160) diff 160.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 62/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-165) diff 147.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/118 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/65 over 0.5 (60%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 74/118 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 136.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 136.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 29/53 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 53/102 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 136.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 136.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-170) diff 121.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.173 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/110 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/53 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 66/110 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 121.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 111.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.365 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 61/115 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-130) diff 110.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 110.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 55/112 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 110.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 110.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.55 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-150) diff 106.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/56 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 62/114 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-160) diff 91.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.96 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/60 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 71/112 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 91.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.182 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 57/112 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 68.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.531 (65 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .695
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter TB: 45/110 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 64.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+112) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.601 (151 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 21/49 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+100) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.608 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.15
Base projection 2.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (52 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/120 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/61 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 64/120 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+119) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.559 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 50/115 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+103) diff 43.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/105 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 49/105 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+144) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.356 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 31 PA | 5/27 | HR 0 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .475
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/60 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter TB: 52/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-140) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 26/60 over 1.5 (43%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter TB: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-109) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/120 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 58/120 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+107) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.358 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/86 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 20/41 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 35/86 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+125) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-117) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.510 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/117 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 50/117 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+134) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.548 (108 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/112 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 46/112 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+104) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter TB: 48/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+122) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.495 (133 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/118 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 45/118 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+113) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+102) diff 29.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (87 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Under 1.5 (-194) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.357 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 83/115 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 83/115 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+155) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/117 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 46/117 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+106) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/117 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 46/117 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-115) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.484 (111 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+124) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+124) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.510 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/121 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 50/121 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-150) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/99 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/45 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/99 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-197) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.219 (25 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (+100) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-202) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+150	-202	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 72/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+120) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.531 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/97 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 40/97 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-120) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.448 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 53/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+150) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/114 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 49/114 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+106) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/120 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 49/120 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+140) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 42/111 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+133) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (22 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/60 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+138) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.477 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.94 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 45/116 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+107) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/113 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 54/113 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+100) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 45/102 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 45/102 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+123) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+134) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+134	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/112 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/112 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-180) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.17
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/103 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 77/103 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-189) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 71/112 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 1.5 (+125) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.564 (107 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 19 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS .691
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 33/90 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 33/90 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-163) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.293 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/113 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 79/113 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+130) diff 19.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.293 (81 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 42/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+108) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/92 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/46 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 42/92 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+104) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/117 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 18/56 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 43/117 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+120) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.633 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/109 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 17/52 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 40/109 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+147) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+147	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.248 (37 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+123) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 41/105 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/48 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 41/105 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+150) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/119 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/119 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+115) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.536 (180 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/101 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/50 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.24 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 37/101 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+115) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.482 (130 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+116) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.475 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/117 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 53/117 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-140) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.272 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/112 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/55 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 68/112 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+155) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.307 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 44/116 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 44/116 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+140) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.388 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/56 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+120) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/120 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 50/120 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.706 (30 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 23 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 30.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .895
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/118 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/60 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 40/118 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+110) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+142) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brady House Over 1.5 (+140) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-102) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -101 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/119 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 42/119 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-180) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 80/115 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+100) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.237 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 50/114 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/52 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 50/114 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+125) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/102 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 47/102 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+136) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/121 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 22/61 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 47/121 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/119 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 50/119 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+117) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+135) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+114) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.524 (116 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 38/112 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 38/112 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+100) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.362 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/116 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 49/116 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.296 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/120 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 39/62 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter TB: 80/120 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-157) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.254 (17 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/120 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/61 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 79/120 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.492 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .325
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 50/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 50/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+139) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+130) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+152) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.355 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+106) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.314 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 38 PA | 8/34 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .669
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 49/119 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 49/119 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-174) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -174 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (128 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/100 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 59/100 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+124) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+142) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Under 1.5 (-171) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -171 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 75/118 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+128) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 42/114 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+144) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+148) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-170) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (77 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 77/116 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.240 (25 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/110 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 43/110 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+128) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/65 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-151) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.171
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/88 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 29/45 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 56/88 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+130) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 (+150) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Under 1.5 (-196) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.191 (55 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 44 PA | 12/42 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .794
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 44 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 76/118 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-193) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/116 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 42/57 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 79/116 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+117) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 44/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-196) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -196

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+147	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/115 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 28/58 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 62/115 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-158) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 75/118 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+150) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.368 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Martinez Over 1.5 (+141) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+190) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 45/116 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+134) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/116 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 22/59 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 42/116 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+127) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+120) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Under 1.5 (-190) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/111 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 30/54 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 71/111 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Under 1.5 (-180) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 73/115 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+130) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/120 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/62 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 42/120 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-139) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/119 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 76/119 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/108 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 67/108 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Under 1.5 (-150) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.210 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 58/107 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Under 1.5 (-171) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/98 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/50 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 29/48 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 61/98 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-175) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/111 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 65/111 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 0.5 (-190) diff 188.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/60 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 42/58 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 84/118 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-180) diff 181.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.166 (43 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/115 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 70/115 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 181% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-165) diff 170.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.345 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter TB: 62/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 171% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 0.5 (-190) diff 155.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/119 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/64 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 77/119 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 0.5 (-180) diff 142.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 37/54 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 69/114 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-165) diff 135.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 135.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/117 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.89 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter TB: 70/117 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 135.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.68 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 ML — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Kansas City Royals (+154) edge 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie +172 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +154

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: MyBookie +172 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Eric Lauer xFIP 5.43
Daniel Lynch IV xFIP 4.22
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)
Away SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High F5 edge 18% (≥18%) — verify model inputs / check line movement

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+135) edge 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +146 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +135

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +146 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Merrill Kelly xFIP 4.93
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.89
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 99)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Merrill Kelly (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Kansas City Royals (+186) edge 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +198 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +186

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +198 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Kansas City Royals at +186 with 16.9% edge (EV $+44.06/$100)
Home SP: Eric Lauer (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 50%, bullpen 50%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Eric Lauer poor xFIP (5.43)
EV decision: ML $+44.06 ≥ +1.5 $+30.83 — keeping ML

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Batter HR — 239 play(s) (C 239)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 98.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0089
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.182 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 4 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 111/112 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/56 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 111/112 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 96.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0182
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/110 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 108/110 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0357
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 108/112 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 59/60 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 108/112 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 93.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.272 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/112 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 112/112 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-425) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Heineman Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eduardo Valencia Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Martinez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Malgeri Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hao-Yu Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Hedges Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lane Thomas Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tristan Peters Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Romo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lockridge Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 13.0% / Under 87.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brady House Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Pinckney Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 90.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0442
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/113 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/113 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0536
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.219 (25 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/112 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/112 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0500
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.254 (17 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 114/120 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/61 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 114/120 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0522
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.287 (37 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/115 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 109/115 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0522
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.357 (18 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/115 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/59 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 109/115 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 88.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0625
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (32 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 10 PA | 0/10 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/56 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 88.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0593
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .555
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 111/118 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 111/118 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0593
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 111/118 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 111/118 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0696
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.365 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 7 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .733 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/115 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 108/115 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.90x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/117 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/117 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0763
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 109/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0700
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.429 (128 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/100 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/100 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.363 (48 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 15 PA | 2/14 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .414
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0696
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.440 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/115 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/115 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0776
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (22 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 84.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0776
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.340 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.212 (22 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Carmen Mlodzinski contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Carmen Mlodzinski: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0776
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.333 (77 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 7 PA | 0/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0917
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.296 (16 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 111/120 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 59/62 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 111/120 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.293 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0816
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.382 (40 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/98 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 90/98 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0877
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.368 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/114 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/114 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 81.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0901
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.373 (55 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1092
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/119 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/64 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/119 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0982
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.315 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1008
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.314 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 38 PA | 8/34 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 10.5% | OPS .669
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 108/119 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 108/119 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0870
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.452 (38 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/92 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/46 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 84/92 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 80.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 79/87 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 38/43 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 79/87 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-800) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/111 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/111 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1043
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 103/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 103/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.355 (64 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/113 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/113 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 19 PA | 8/19 | HR 2 | K% 26.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.316
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/110 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 102/110 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-600) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.175 (18 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0893
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.317 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1130
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.336 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 103/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1136
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 16 PA | 6/15 | HR 1 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.171
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 79/88 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 79/88 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-750) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/119 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 105/119 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1167
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/120 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 107/120 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1167
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/120 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 107/120 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1167
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/120 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 107/120 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/119 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 107/119 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.312 (22 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 99/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1282
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.475 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 7 PA | 2/6 | HR 1 | K% 28.6% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.262 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1545
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.173 (13 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.499 (26 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1240
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.423 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Janson Junk: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/121 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 107/121 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/102 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 90/102 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1333
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (15 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/90 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 78/90 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.437 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/103 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 90/103 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1373
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.257 (12 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tyler Mahle contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Tyler Mahle: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/102 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 88/102 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-800) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.362 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/117 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 104/117 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.248 (37 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 100/115 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 100/115 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.166 (43 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 3.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1597
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/119 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/65 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 102/119 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.528 (42 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 107/119 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 107/119 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1389
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.365 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Jack Perkins: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/108 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 94/108 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.388 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1171
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/111 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 99/111 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-450) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.484 (111 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/102 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 90/102 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.345 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 4 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 2.417 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1238
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/105 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 94/105 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.307 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1597
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.389 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/119 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 102/119 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.347 (129 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.31x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.608 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1491
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.448 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 69.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1491
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.448 (45 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 90/102 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 90/102 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1776
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.272 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.210 (41 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Drew Rasmussen contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Drew Rasmussen: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1453
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (43 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1610
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.492 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 10 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .325
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 100/118 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 100/118 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.524 (116 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.706 (30 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Framber Valdez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Framber Valdez: 23 PA | 6/22 | HR 1 | K% 30.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .895
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 103/118 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 103/118 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 67.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1453
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.510 (62 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .700
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1579
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (42 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1695
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/118 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 99/118 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1597
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.394 (42 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/119 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/119 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 101/120 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 101/120 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/116 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 96/116 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 64.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1709
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.482 (130 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 10 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 10.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/117 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 98/117 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.633 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 64.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1651
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.633 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Will Warren contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Will Warren: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2182
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.240 (25 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Bryce Miller: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/110 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 90/110 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1983
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.257 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zack Wheeler contact suppression 79, HR vulnerability 21 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Zack Wheeler: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/64 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-800) diff 63.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1949
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.191 (55 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dustin May contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Dustin May: 44 PA | 12/42 | HR 2 | K% 18.2% | BB% 4.5% | OPS .794
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 44 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/118 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 97/118 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/114 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 96/114 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1810
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.477 (35 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs José Soriano: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 98/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 98/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.306 (36 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ranger Suarez contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ranger Suarez: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1905
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.314 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Baz contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Shane Baz: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/105 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/48 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 87/105 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-650) diff 60.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1961
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/102 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 82/102 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-700) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1652
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.411 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.14x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.293 (81 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: George Klassen contact suppression 2, HR vulnerability 98 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1826
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (87 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/115 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/115 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1826
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.355 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.06x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.353 (87 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Feltner contact suppression 30, HR vulnerability 70 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Feltner: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/115 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/115 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1977
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.358 (22 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Robbie Ray contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Robbie Ray: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/86 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 36/41 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 71/86 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-600) diff 57.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1875
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.548 (108 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Eric Lauer contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eric Lauer: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/112 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/112 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-500) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1980
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.536 (180 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cal Quantrill contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cal Quantrill: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-400) diff 56.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2281
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.465 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Daniel Lynch IV contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Daniel Lynch IV: 4 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 1.250 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/51 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 85/110 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2110
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: José Soriano contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/109 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 87/109 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2062
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.531 (34 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/97 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 78/97 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 55.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2167
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.335 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.313 (48 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zebby Matthews contact suppression 40, HR vulnerability 60 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/120 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/120 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-500) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2250
Pitcher assessment: Jackson Kent contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/120 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 96/120 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2066
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.510 (57 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/121 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/121 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-450) diff 54.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2807
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.258 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.237 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Miller contact suppression 78, HR vulnerability 22 (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-600) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2232
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2232
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.316 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.494 (58 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Janson Junk contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 53.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2020
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.601 (151 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.133 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/99 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 80/99 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-800) diff 53.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2119
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.495 (133 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2364
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.312 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Foster Griffin contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/110 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/110 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2137
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.435 (74 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-650) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.337 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.564 (107 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Luis Castillo contact suppression 39, HR vulnerability 61 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Luis Castillo: 19 PA | 3/16 | HR 1 | K% 21.1% | BB% 15.8% | OPS .691
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 19 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/90 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 39/45 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 71/90 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2321
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-450) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2321
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.351 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.424 (58 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Rhett Lowder contact suppression 32, HR vulnerability 68 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:45 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2479
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.341 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.04x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.356 (57 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: David Peterson contact suppression 37, HR vulnerability 63 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs David Peterson: 31 PA | 5/27 | HR 0 | K% 16.1% | BB% 6.5% | OPS .475
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 31 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-285) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 3:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -285 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2941
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.384 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jack Perkins contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/119 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/60 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 88/119 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2941
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/119 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 89/119 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2917
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.397 (52 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Zac Thornton contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Zac Thornton: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 88/120 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 88/120 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-425) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3043
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.348 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.559 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Leahy contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Kyle Leahy: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/115 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 86/115 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-600) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 3:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3091
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.393 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.531 (65 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Merrill Kelly contact suppression 11, HR vulnerability 89 (adj 1.07x)
BVP vs Merrill Kelly: 15 PA | 3/14 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 6.7% | OPS .695
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/110 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 84/110 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.380/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	Moneyline	Kansas City Royals	DK	+186	33.4%	50.4%	+16.9%	$+44.06	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (1 play(s))

C Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Moneyline) +16.9%

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Underdog ML value — Kansas City Royals at +186 with 16.9% edge (EV $+44.06/$100)
Home SP: Eric Lauer (LHP) | opp wRC+ 98 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 98)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 50%, bullpen 50%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Eric Lauer poor xFIP (5.43)
EV decision: ML $+44.06 ≥ +1.5 $+30.83 — keeping ML

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:10 PM	F5 ML	Kansas City Royals	DK	+154	37.1%	55.3%	+18.2%	$+40.44	5	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	3:40 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+135	40.1%	49.9%	+9.9%	$+17.35	5	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +18.2%

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Eric Lauer xFIP 5.43
Daniel Lynch IV xFIP 4.22
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 118 blended 50% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Eric Lauer (LHP)
Away SP: Daniel Lynch IV (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 ML) +9.9%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Merrill Kelly xFIP 4.93
Ryan Feltner xFIP 4.89
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 99)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Merrill Kelly (RHP)
Away SP: Ryan Feltner (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

1:40 PM · decision fi-2c4af7cbe6a00464

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -110

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-3.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Shane Baz · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Zebby Matthews · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Baz / Zebby Matthews announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Baz / Zebby Matthews announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-111	-119	49.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

2:15 PM · decision fi-2710d069349abf9e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.7%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-1.8%

Effective Edge

-2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.3%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +108

Raw Edge

+0.2%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Zack Wheeler · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kyle Leahy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zack Wheeler / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZack Wheeler / Kyle Leahy announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-120	-112	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics

3:06 PM · decision fi-ed02e9488cee9337

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

+0.2%

Effective Edge

-1.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -102

Raw Edge

-0.6%

Effective Edge

-2.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Drew Rasmussen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jack Perkins · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Drew Rasmussen / Jack Perkins announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDrew Rasmussen / Jack Perkins announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

3:40 PM · decision fi-3a62e75371dfa6e6

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+0.5%

Effective Edge

-1.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -130

Raw Edge

-5.5%

Effective Edge

-7.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Ryan Feltner · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Merrill Kelly · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.490
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ryan Feltner / Merrill Kelly announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.490

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRyan Feltner / Merrill Kelly announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+106	-136	45.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

3:46 PM · decision fi-c0c8a21b320ce010

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Bryan King · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:23:59.212170Z

both starters must be officially announced

1 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (1 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

4:10 PM · decision fi-6dd55ed9e6bdb8a4

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -114

Raw Edge

-2.3%

Effective Edge

-3.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-0.5%

Effective Edge

-1.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Dustin May · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Robbie Ray · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Dustin May / Robbie Ray announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDustin May / Robbie Ray announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-118	-112	50.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

6:40 PM · decision fi-f611ab6110d0409c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.5%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -127

Raw Edge

-4.4%

Effective Edge

-5.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.5%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +110

Raw Edge

+0.9%

Effective Edge

-0.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Foster Griffin · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Framber Valdez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Foster Griffin / Framber Valdez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFoster Griffin / Framber Valdez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

6:41 PM · decision fi-ceffd597df9a03df

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.0%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+1.5%

Effective Edge

-0.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Carmen Mlodzinski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Janson Junk · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.500
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Carmen Mlodzinski / Janson Junk announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.500

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCarmen Mlodzinski / Janson Junk announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-135	+102	53.7%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-110	51.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals

6:45 PM · decision fi-7adde102e1513b4a

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +105

Raw Edge

+0.9%

Effective Edge

-1.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -130

Raw Edge

-6.2%

Effective Edge

-8.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: David Peterson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jackson Kent · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
David Peterson / Jackson Kent announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.497

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDavid Peterson / Jackson Kent announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

7:05 PM · decision fi-3500a6a5de1f3083

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-3.8%

Effective Edge

-5.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

-0.3%

Effective Edge

-1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Bryce Miller · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Will Warren · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bryce Miller / Will Warren announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBryce Miller / Will Warren announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-130	+102	53.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM · decision fi-e15d994180c4123d

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.6%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -140

Raw Edge

-6.8%

Effective Edge

-8.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -8.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.4%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +125

Raw Edge

+4.0%

Effective Edge

+2.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Ranger Suarez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: José Soriano · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.516
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ranger Suarez / José Soriano announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.516

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRanger Suarez / José Soriano announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-167	+125	58.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-152	+115	56.5%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-154	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

7:15 PM · decision fi-0183d9975ae84230

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +100

Raw Edge

+0.4%

Effective Edge

-1.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -112

Raw Edge

-3.2%

Effective Edge

-4.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Zac Thornton · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tyler Mahle · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.504
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Zac Thornton / Tyler Mahle announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.504

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSZac Thornton / Tyler Mahle announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-118	-112	50.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-104	-127	47.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+100	-128	47.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox

7:40 PM · decision fi-0f6e31246f9e36f4

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

+0.8%

Effective Edge

-0.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-3.8%

Effective Edge

-5.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Rhett Lowder · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Luis Castillo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Rhett Lowder / Luis Castillo announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSRhett Lowder / Luis Castillo announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:10 PM · decision fi-a5f245ac710d5220

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +116

Raw Edge

+4.0%

Effective Edge

+1.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -130

Raw Edge

-6.8%

Effective Edge

-9.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -9.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Daniel Lynch IV · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eric Lauer · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Daniel Lynch IV / Eric Lauer announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSDaniel Lynch IV / Eric Lauer announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+108	-143	45.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+116	-148	43.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

10:11 PM · decision fi-3269d745a74bb53b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +104

Raw Edge

+0.0%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-5.6%

Effective Edge

-7.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.6% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cal Quantrill · official_announced · matched

Home starter: George Klassen · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-11 · updated 2026-08-12T08:20:59.460834Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.491
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cal Quantrill / George Klassen announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.491

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCal Quantrill / George Klassen announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+102	-136	46.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+104	-132	46.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 239 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=239
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:40 PM	-	Merrill Kelly (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	39.8%	21.7%	+18.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	38.7%	20.8%	+17.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	-	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.2%	23.1%	+15.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	38.0%	21.7%	+16.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Eric Lauer (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	37.9%	21.7%	+16.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	JJ Bleday	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	37.9%	20.8%	+17.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	3:06 PM	-	Jack Perkins (R)	theScore Bet	+200	-	37.7%	31.1%	+6.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	-	Jackson Kent (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	37.2%	23.1%	+14.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	36.6%	24.3%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Braden Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	-	Rhett Lowder (R)	theScore Bet	+600	-	36.5%	13.2%	+23.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-	Janson Junk (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	36.5%	21.7%	+14.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Sal Stewart	Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	-	Luis Castillo (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	36.4%	18.4%	+18.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	-	Jackson Kent (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	36.2%	20.8%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	35.0%	25.6%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	-	Kyle Leahy (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	34.6%	19.1%	+15.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:40 PM	-	Ryan Feltner (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	34.2%	20.8%	+13.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Zac Thornton (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.7%	23.1%	+10.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	1:40 PM	-	Zebby Matthews (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	33.4%	23.1%	+10.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:40 PM	-	Foster Griffin (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.9%	16.7%	+16.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	-	Cal Quantrill (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	32.1%	19.9%	+12.2%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:40 PM	100	90.3%	-934	Hunter Goodman, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	7:05 PM	100	87.0%	-666	Ben Rice, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	100	86.9%	-661	Jac Caglianone, Starling Marte, Shohei Ohtani, Salvador Perez	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	100	86.5%	-642	Elly De La Cruz, Miguel Vargas, JJ Bleday, Colson Montgomery	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	100	86.0%	-616	Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, CJ Abrams	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 14.0%	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	100	85.9%	-611	Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Josh Lowe, Brandon Nimmo	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	100	85.9%	-610	Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Eddy Alvarez, Michael Harris II	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	1:40 PM	100	85.6%	-596	Pete Alonso, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Gunnar Henderson	Target Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:40 PM	100	84.6%	-549	Dillon Dingler, Jo Adell, Spencer Torkelson, Eduardo Valencia	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	3:46 PM	92	84.6%	-549	-	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	100	84.5%	-544	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Jordan Walker, Trea Turner	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	3:06 PM	100	83.8%	-517	Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Tyler Soderstrom	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	100	83.8%	-517	Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	100	81.7%	-445	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, Charles McAdoo	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	4:10 PM	99	81.6%	-444	Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Brice Turang, Manny Machado	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Hunter Goodman — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+320) HR chance 39.8% | edge +18.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.309, OPS 0.865, ISO 0.292, TB/G 2.04
Statcast: barrel 16.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.464
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 26/110 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0446, xFIP 4.93, K% 15.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.393, xERA 6.98, whiff 20.9%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.695, K% 20.0% (15 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.084, OPS 0.865, ISO 0.318 (310 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Elly De La Cruz — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (+340) HR chance 38.7% | edge +17.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.847, ISO 0.225, TB/G 1.96
Statcast: barrel 14.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.7/116.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.485
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/99 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0383, xFIP 4.44, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.86, whiff 23.4%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 1.133, K% 0.0% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.037, OPS 0.766, ISO 0.188 (320 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Mike Trout — Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (+300) HR chance 38.2% | edge +15.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.829, ISO 0.210, TB/G 1.59
Statcast: barrel 17.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 19/101 (19%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0321, xFIP 5.03, K% 15.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.324, xERA 4.45, whiff 18.7%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.788, K% 9.1% (11 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.798, ISO 0.216 (328 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Miguel Vargas — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (+320) HR chance 38.0% | edge +16.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.214, OPS 0.814, ISO 0.237, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 14.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.6/112.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.507
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 23/117 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0287, xFIP 4.74, K% 18.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.351, xERA 5.33, whiff 20.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.769, ISO 0.217 (353 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.435, xwOBA 0.329 (74 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+320) HR chance 37.9% | edge +16.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.188, OPS 0.810, ISO 0.219, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 14.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/112 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0556, xFIP 5.43, K% 14.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.341, xERA 4.99, whiff 17.9%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.047, OPS 0.717, ISO 0.194 (128 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch 4-Seam Fastball: xSLG 0.548, xwOBA 0.379 (108 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance JJ Bleday — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (+340) HR chance 37.9% | edge +17.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.222, OPS 0.794, ISO 0.233, TB/G 1.61
Statcast: barrel 10.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.7/112.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.453
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 19/90 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0383, xFIP 4.44, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.337, xERA 4.86, whiff 23.4%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.691, K% 21.1% (19 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.829, ISO 0.244 (279 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (+200) HR chance 37.7% | edge +6.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.294, OPS 0.923, ISO 0.277, TB/G 2.10
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.512
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 31/119 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0458, xFIP 4.24, K% 26.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.315, xERA 4.18, whiff 28.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.074, OPS 0.917, ISO 0.297 (376 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.384, xwOBA 0.315 (53 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Crow-Armstrong — Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals (+300) HR chance 37.2% | edge +14.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.225, OPS 0.932, ISO 0.261, TB/G 2.06
Statcast: barrel 12.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.472
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/120 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0495, xFIP 5.46, K% 15.9%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.041, OPS 0.938, ISO 0.209 (171 PA)
Park HR factor 1.02
Night game start 6:45 PM ET

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:40 PM	+1400	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Masyn Winn	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	+700	0.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_rhp
Nasim Nunez	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	+750	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Ernie Clement	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	+700	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs
Andres Gimenez	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	+900	1.1%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Xander Bogaerts	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	4:10 PM	+650	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Xavier Edwards	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+750	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (1 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	1:40 PM	+700	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA)
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	+750	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Jakob Marsee	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+650	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	4:10 PM	Robbie Ray	Dustin May	0.85	18.4%	49.5%	-	+0.0%
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	José Soriano	Ranger Suarez	0.96	18.3%	49.4%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	3:06 PM	Jack Perkins	Drew Rasmussen	1.00	16.2%	45.7%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Janson Junk	Carmen Mlodzinski	0.88	16.2%	45.7%	-	+0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	Kyle Leahy	Zack Wheeler	0.93	15.5%	44.5%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	3:46 PM	None	Bryan King	0.82	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:40 PM	Framber Valdez	Foster Griffin	0.91	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	1:40 PM	Zebby Matthews	Shane Baz	0.95	14.4%	42.2%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Tyler Mahle	Zac Thornton	1.03	14.1%	41.7%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	10:11 PM	George Klassen	Cal Quantrill	0.98	14.1%	41.7%	-	+0.0%
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:45 PM	Jackson Kent	David Peterson	1.02	14.0%	41.4%	-	+0.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:40 PM	Luis Castillo	Rhett Lowder	1.00	13.5%	40.5%	-	+0.0%
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	Eric Lauer	Daniel Lynch IV	0.97	13.1%	39.8%	-	+0.0%
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	7:05 PM	Will Warren	Bryce Miller	1.18	13.0%	39.6%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	3:40 PM	Merrill Kelly	Ryan Feltner	1.02	9.7%	32.3%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	71.3	68.6	79.0	6	Split-Finger (48% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 31.2%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.257, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees	65.3	54.5	78.5	7	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 18.8%, xwOBA 0.258, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	61.2	55.3	71.5	6	Changeup (38% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 25.4%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.272, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	58.1	58.9	65.0	5	Slider (44% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 27.6%, put-away 19.9%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	56.6	62.9	50.0	6	Changeup (44% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 28.1%, put-away 23.1%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	55.5	52.8	61.0	6	Curveball (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	55.3	67.0	46.5	5	Curveball (47% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 31.6%, put-away 20.1%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	50.6	49.0	53.0	5	Split-Finger (28% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 22.1%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	50.5	50.4	51.5	7	Changeup (34% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 24.4%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.312, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	50.0	49.7	52.0	6	Sweeper (31% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 22.9%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	47.5	44.7	50.5	5	Curveball (29% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.314, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	46.3	51.0	43.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 24.8%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners	46.1	48.0	44.0	5	Changeup (31% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 19.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	45.3	42.5	48.0	5	Curveball (32% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryan King	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	43.4	34.6	51.0	4	Sweeper (20% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Luis Castillo	Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds	43.4	45.1	39.0	4	4-Seam Fastball (27% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.337, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	43.3	45.2	40.0	6	Curveball (37% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 17.1%, xwOBA 0.335, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	42.0	31.4	49.5	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 16.3%, put-away 15.1%, xwOBA 0.316, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals	41.1	42.8	37.0	5	Curveball (33% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	40.4	35.1	45.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (29% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 13.9%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	39.8	46.5	30.0	6	Changeup (46% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 15.7%, xwOBA 0.355, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	39.8	39.6	42.5	7	Sweeper (29% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 19.1%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins	39.0	39.7	37.5	7	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 20.6%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.340, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	39.0	46.2	33.5	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 21.9%, put-away 18.7%, xwOBA 0.348, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox	37.7	41.7	32.0	6	Slider (35% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 20.4%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.351, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	36.1	31.8	37.0	5	4-Seam Fastball (20% whiff, 43% usage)	Savant whiff 17.9%, put-away 12.3%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	32.3	59.4	2.0	5	Slider (46% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 31.7%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.411, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	27.0	40.2	11.0	6	Slider (33% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 20.9%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.393, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	0	-	Savant pitcher summary missing, Savant arsenal missing

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Merrill Kelly	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	R	16.8%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	11.00	89.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start
Jack Perkins	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	24.9%	4.3	4.6	4.5	72	short	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 18.9%
Tyler Mahle	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	R	23.5%	5.8	5.3	6.0	97	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Shane Baz	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	R	22.3%	5.7	5.9	5.9	96	normal	full	50.50	49.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ranger Suarez	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	26.2%	3.9	5.2	4.9	65	short	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.9 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.6%
David Peterson	Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals	L	18.1%	5.5	5.0	5.1	92	normal	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Luis Castillo	Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds	R	18.0%	5.4	5.1	5.2	91	normal	full	39.00	61.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Rhett Lowder	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox	R	17.6%	4.2	4.8	4.7	70	short	full	32.00	68.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Foster Griffin	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	L	20.7%	5.9	5.8	5.8	99	normal	full	51.50	48.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Feltner	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	15.3%	4.5	4.8	4.8	76	short	full	30.00	70.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Framber Valdez	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	L	18.7%	6.2	5.5	5.7	104	deep	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Bryan King	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	L	21.0%	1.0	-	4.8	17	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start
Daniel Lynch IV	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	17.5%	1.0	1.7	4.5	17	short	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
George Klassen	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	R	20.3%	2.7	2.9	4.5	45	short	full	2.00	98.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.7 IP/start
Eric Lauer	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	L	14.0%	5.4	5.0	5.1	91	normal	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Janson Junk	Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	18.5%	4.2	5.1	4.9	70	short	full	49.50	50.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Dustin May	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	R	23.0%	5.2	5.2	5.2	87	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Zebby Matthews	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	R	19.7%	5.0	5.7	5.6	84	short	full	40.00	60.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Zac Thornton	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	L	18.4%	5.7	5.6	5.7	96	normal	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Will Warren	New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners	R	22.4%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Zack Wheeler	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	32.0%	4.6	5.8	6.0	77	short	full	79.00	21.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Carmen Mlodzinski	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins	R	18.5%	2.6	4.7	4.3	44	short	full	37.50	62.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.6 IP/start
Robbie Ray	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	20.1%	5.2	5.5	5.5	87	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Bryce Miller	Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees	R	21.8%	5.1	5.7	5.6	86	short	full	78.50	21.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Kyle Leahy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	22.6%	5.2	5.1	5.1	87	normal	full	33.50	66.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Drew Rasmussen	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	28.5%	5.4	5.7	5.6	91	normal	full	71.50	28.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cal Quantrill	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	R	17.3%	3.8	4.6	4.7	64	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start
José Soriano	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.1%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jackson Kent	Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs	L	21.3%	-	-	5.8	96	unknown	missing	50.00	50.00	season+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%, recent_form_unavailable, savant_summary_missing

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

9/9 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Eric Lauer	Eric Lauer Under	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	13.5	-4.0	23.1%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	5.1	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ) Under	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.60 <= 3 min
Merrill Kelly	Merrill Kelly Under	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	15.0	-2.5	14.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.6	86	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.50 <= 3 min
Dustin May	Dustin May Under	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	17.5	15.9	-1.6	9.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.2	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Drew Rasmussen	Drew Rasmussen Over	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	17.5	18.4	0.9	5.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.6	91	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Foster Griffin	Foster Griffin Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Framber Valdez	Framber Valdez Under	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shane Baz	Shane Baz Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	17.4	-0.1	0.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.9	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Zack Wheeler	Zack Wheeler Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	17.5	0.0	0.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	6.0	77	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

114 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Elias Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.51	1.34	0.59	0.59	2.39 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Josh Lowe	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.46	1.31	0.57	0.57	2.34 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Nicky Lopez	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.43	1.29	0.57	0.57	2.31 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Starling Marte	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.36	1.29	0.54	0.54	2.30 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.31	1.15	0.64	0.53	2.43 / Over	0.35	season_games=86,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.31	0.97	0.64	0.69	2.27 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jordan Walker	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.30	1.06	0.58	0.66	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.28	1.02	0.59	0.67	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Dillon Dingler	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.27	1.02	0.55	0.70	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ezequiel Duran	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.24	0.99	0.54	0.70	2.40 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bobby Witt Jr.	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.20	1.12	0.62	0.46	2.33 / Over	0.35	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.18	1.05	0.51	0.63	1.98 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	1.29	0.47	0.41	2.30 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Freddie Freeman	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.17	1.13	0.53	0.51	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kevin McGonigle	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.13	1.10	0.63	0.40	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ozzie Albies	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.13	1.00	0.60	0.53	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=120,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Josh Bell	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.12	0.92	0.54	0.66	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Zach Neto	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.12	0.90	0.72	0.50	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Nimmo	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.12	1.12	0.49	0.50	2.48 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.11	0.91	0.61	0.59	2.22 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake Burger	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.11	0.91	0.48	0.72	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Chase Meidroth	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.10	1.03	0.63	0.45	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.09	0.94	0.56	0.58	2.35 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.08	1.05	0.64	0.39	2.26 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Mike Trout	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.06	0.85	0.75	0.47	2.08 / Over	0.35	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes