MLB Bets 2026-08-11

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	937W–478L–0P	66%	-84.98 u	Last 14 days • 1415 settled
Grade A	24W–24L–0P	50%	-6.61 u
Grade B	911W–449L–0P	67%	-75.94 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3463W–2182L–8P	61%	-231.21 u	All-time • 5653 settled
Grade A	255W–199L–0P	56%	-8.21 u
Grade B	3206W–1978L–8P	62%	-220.57 u

104 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter H+R+RBI	Yainer Diaz	1.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter H+R+RBI	Yordan Alvarez	1.5	-152	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	CJ Abrams	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Cole Young	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Jacob Young	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Nasim Nunez	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Nolan Arenado	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	-	138	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Blake Snell	6.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Cody Bradford	4.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez	5.5	-156	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Cristopher Sánchez	5.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Dylan Cease	7.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Mitch Bratt	4.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Nolan McLean	5.5	-157	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	K Prop	Paul Skenes	6.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	NRFI	NRFI	-	122	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristopher Sanchez	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Eury Perez	1.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Hunter Brown	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Martin Perez	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Nolan McLean	2.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Paul Skenes	1.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Johnson	2.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Ryan Weathers	2.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Sean Burke	2.5	-170	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Earned Run	Shota Imanaga	2.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jake Irvin	5.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Mason Barnett	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nick Martinez	6.5	-125	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Pitcher Outs	Cody Bradford	17.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	100	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-11	YRFI	YRFI	-	132	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-10	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-158	-	WIN	+0.633	Hayden Wesneski: 4.0 (line 3.5)
2026-08-10	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-136	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Houston Astros 6, San Francisco G

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	539	55%	-20.05u	65	48%	-11.65u	254	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	481	58%	+14.26u	58	64%	+6.19u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	166	58%	+5.39u	17	76%	+5.51u	46	61%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1885	73%	-51.39u	807	72%	-48.59u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	557	56%	-26.43u	115	54%	-10.78u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	412	60%	-11.42u	82	62%	+0.23u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	54	70%	-0.54u	10	50%	-3.01u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	29	46%	+3.54u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	5
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	121	48%	-12.65u	10	60%	+0.46u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	5	40%	-1.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	32	50%	-4.07u	19	53%	-1.48u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	591	52%	-56.09u	60	55%	-3.20u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 8 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 539, 14d N 65	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 3 actionable / 11 total candidate(s); season N 481, 14d N 58	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 166, 14d N 17	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 28 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 28/28 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 21 total candidate(s); season N 54, 14d N 10	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 261 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 29, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 121, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 3 total candidate(s); season N 32, 14d N 19	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 152 total candidate(s); season N 591, 14d N 60	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 152 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 794 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 225 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 771 pitcher(s), 3401 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 582 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 28 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 389 hitter(s) \| 28 SP matchup(s), 1327 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 389 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Cleveland Guardians, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 339 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 15/15 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/15 game(s); Outs 28 line(s)/15 game(s); Hits Allowed 23 line(s)/15 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 24 line(s)/15 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 94, fanatics 10, bovada_direct 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2798 market side(s) checked \| 2798 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 15 game(s) fetched \| 15 with ML odds \| 15 with total odds \| 8 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 152 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 15 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 627 \| batter bats 397 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 582 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 251 batter(s) scored \| 15 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+105	-127	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	-118	-102	-1.5 (+144)	1.5 (-175)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-174	+143	-1.5 (-105)	1.5 (-115)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-188)	-1.5 (+154)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	+123	-149	1.5 (-174)	-1.5 (+143)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	+109	-131	1.5 (-194)	-1.5 (+159)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-102	-118	-1.5 (+153)	1.5 (-186)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	+135	-163	1.5 (-157)	-1.5 (+130)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-172	+142	-1.5 (+100)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	+149	-181	1.5 (-136)	-1.5 (+113)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-168	+139	-1.5 (-101)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-143	+119	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-194	+159	-1.5 (-115)	1.5 (-105)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+219	-273	1.5 (+100)	-1.5 (-120)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

5 Grade A | 43 Grade B | 967 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 5 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash	K Prop	Cody Bradford Over	RAN@ANG	9:39 PM	4.5	6.8	-143	DK Over 4.5 -143 \| exact	52.1%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156	K Prop	Cristopher Sanchez Over	PHI@CAR	7:46 PM	5.5	8.1	-156	FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 \| best price	47.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch	K Prop	Dylan Cease Over	SOX@JAY	7:08 PM	7.5	10.4	-148	Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -130 \| best price	38.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A ⭐ Featured	⭐ Featured K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch	K Prop	Nolan McLean Over	MET@BRA	7:16 PM	5.5	7.4	-157	FanDuel Over 5.5 -156 \| best price	34.0%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade…	K Prop	Paul Skenes Over	PIR@MAR	6:41 PM	6.5	7.9	-140	FanDuel Over 6.5 -132 \| best price	20.9%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (50 play(s))

K Prop - Sean Burke Over

Projection: 7.5Displayed: Over 7.5 +120Market line: majority 6.5 | avg 7Recommended: BetOnline Over 6.5 -156 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 7

Batter Hits - Geraldo Perdomo Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Noelvi Marte Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Braden Montgomery Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nathaniel Lowe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brandon Lowe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Alec Burleson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Spencer Horwitz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Willson Contreras Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - JJ Bleday Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jordan Beck Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Coby Mayo Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Colton Cowser Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Dylan Beavers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kaelen Culpepper Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Luis Torrens Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Luis Robert Jr. Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -180Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Eugenio Suarez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tyler Stephenson Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Edgar Quero Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brenton Doyle Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ceddanne Rafaela Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ozzie Albies Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Angel Genao Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Colt Keith Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

⭐ Featured Signals - strong projection + own-line book consensus; shop line context below

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Cody Bradford Over 4.5 (-143) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	-143	+112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 52.1% vs 17% min; cushion +2.34K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.5% / under 44.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cody Bradford: K/9 8.6, proj 6.8K over 5.5 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.4% | put-away% 36.6% | xwOBA 0.277 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 23.8%, L7 28.3%, season 25.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -143, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-156) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -142 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-149	+115	-
DK	5.5	-156	+122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 47.0% vs 17% min; cushion +2.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Cristopher Sanchez: K/9 10.8, proj 8.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 25.4% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Slider (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .589
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 16.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/24 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 7.25
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -156 -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Dylan Cease Over 7.5 (-148) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -148

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 7.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 7.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-141	+108	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	7.5	-148	+116	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-132	+104	-
theScore Bet	7.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 10.4K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 38.9% vs 17% min; cushion +2.92K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.3% / under 43.7%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dylan Cease: K/9 12.6, proj 10.4K over 6.4 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 34.6% | put-away% 24.9% | xwOBA 0.256 | top pitch: Changeup (53% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 32.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 108 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .198 | OPS .620
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 108 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.7%, L7 17.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.6%/108 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.20 | Season Avg 8.76
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -148, pitch-type boost on 12% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ⭐ Featured K Prop — Nolan McLean Over 5.5 (-157) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-159	+122	-
DK	5.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-156	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.4K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 34.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nolan McLean: K/9 11.1, proj 7.4K over 6.0 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 24.2% | xwOBA 0.296 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Curveball: 29.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 56 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .566
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 56 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 26.1%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 25.0%/56 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 22.0%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 26.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.40 | Season Avg 6.78
Prop trend: K L10: 9/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -157, pitch-type boost on 15% usage pitch -- A-grade risk note

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Paul Skenes Over 6.5 (-140) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 6.5 -132; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-132	+102	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-132	+104	Recommended
Fanatics	6.5	-140	+105	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-135	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 20.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.36K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Paul Skenes: K/9 12.0, proj 7.9K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.6% | put-away% 22.5% | xwOBA 0.270 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 38.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 38 PA | K% 44.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .544
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 18.9%, L7 21.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 44.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.30 | Season Avg 6.75
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
K% trend: support +4.3 ppts (recent 34.8% vs season 30.5%, proj adj +2.2%)
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -140, pitch-type boost on 14% usage pitch, expected IP 5.4 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (43 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Cristopher Sánchez Over 5.5 (-135) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 8.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 47.0% vs 17% min; cushion +2.59K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.1% / under 45.9%)
Cristopher Sánchez: K/9 10.8, proj 8.1K over 6.1 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 25.4% | xwOBA 0.285 | top pitch: Slider (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Slider: 26.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .589
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 16.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.9%/6 hitters, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 20/24 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 7.25
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -1.15 vs season

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -135 -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Blake Snell Under 6.5 (-143) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 6.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	6.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	6.5	+112	-143	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+112	-142	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.9K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 40.7% vs 17% min; cushion -2.64K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Blake Snell: K/9 8.7, proj 3.9K over 3.0 IP (season 3.0 IP/GS; elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 38.6% | put-away% 12.2% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Changeup (56% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 60 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .281 | OPS .668
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 60 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.1%, L7 14.5%, season 21.0%, active roster 21.6%/6 hitters, BVP 33.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 14.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 1/1 under 6.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Mitch Bratt Under 4.5 (-148) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+122	-159	-
DK	4.5	+116	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 3.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 24.2% vs 17% min; cushion -1.09K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mitch Bratt: K/9 7.5, proj 3.4K over 4.8 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 16.4% | put-away% 13.2% | xwOBA 0.310 | top pitch: Slider (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slider: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Mitch Bratt: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 24.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.7%, active roster 23.2%/6 hitters (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Strong -- Opposes Bet; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 24.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 23.2% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 5/6 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Cody Bradford Under 17.5 (-129) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-104	-129	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-102	-129	Selected

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 13.932 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 20.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 4.9 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS, weight 10%); leash adj +0.0 IP (no recent-form adjustment); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.22 vs lg 4.20); projected 4.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.3% / under 52.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.6 outs (short leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 4.9 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.6 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 23.8%, L7 28.3%, season 25.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 12.7%, L7 8.1%, season 8.5% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: season leash 4.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment season leash 4.3 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 13.00 | Season Avg 13.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 1/1 under 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 3 play(s) (B 3)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Nick Martinez Under 6.5 (-125) diff 26.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	6.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	6.5	+105	-150	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 26.2% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.07, BB% 3.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 28 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .424
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.9%, L7 25.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/22 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 6.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jake Irvin Under 5.5 (-148) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+112	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 23.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 4.8 IP (WHIP 1.25, BB% 9.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/13 (69%) | Season 9/13 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.15
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Mason Barnett Under 5.5 (-132) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 21.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.04 over 3.8 IP (WHIP 1.46, BB% 9.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.8% / under 53.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.10x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 16.4%, split 15.6%, L7 15.3%, season 19.0% (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/16 (100%) | Season 16/16 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 10/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 10 play(s) (B 10)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Eury Perez Over 1.5 (-140) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.65 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 3.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.1%, L7 28.3%, season 24.2% (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/20 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Brown Over 1.5 (-136) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-136	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.02, ERA 3.76)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.9%, L7 23.9%, season 21.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 (-167) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.47 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 2.60, ERA 2.69)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.4% / under 58.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .589
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.3%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.97 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 (-167) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -167

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.25 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 3.18, ERA 3.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.5% / under 58.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 32 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .527
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 18.1%, L7 20.0%, season 22.9%, BVP 34.4%/32 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Paul Skenes Over 1.5 (-141) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-141	+106	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.29 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.14, ERA 4.50)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.3 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 38 PA | K% 44.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 18.9%, L7 21.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 44.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Martin Perez Over 1.5 (-167) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.77 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 177 PA | K% 11.9% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .316 | OPS .886
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 23.9%, L7 24.0%, season 22.6%, BVP 11.9%/177 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Burke Under 2.5 (-170) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -170 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.14 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 2.54)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .861
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/23 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Nolan McLean Under 2.5 (-140) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.18 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.33, ERA 3.26)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 56 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .566
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.1%, L7 26.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/56 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Johnson Over 2.5 (-140) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.13 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 5.07, ERA 6.59)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.5% / under 45.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.400
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.9%, L7 22.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Shota Imanaga Under 2.5 (-150) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.35 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.84, ERA 2.77)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.8% / under 55.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 26.4%, L7 24.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -1.00 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-150); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 20 play(s) (B 20)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-550) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-550); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-330) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 99/117 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter Walks: 99/117 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-330) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-525) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 90/112 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 90/112 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-525) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-400) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-375) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-350) diff 63.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.69x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 3/17 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .458
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/109 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 81/109 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-255) diff 61.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-255) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-575) diff 60.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/117 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 90/117 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-575); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-425) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/115 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/63 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 84/115 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-450) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-450); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-450) diff 58.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-350) diff 58.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/111 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 92/111 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-350) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-300) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.8% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/49 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-300) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-375) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 88/116 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-265) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 81/113 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 81/113 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-575) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 43/53 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Heavy juice (-575); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-375) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/104 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 81/104 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-475) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 83/116 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-350) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.4% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-152) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/118 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 65/118 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.58

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -152 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-152) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-123) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 65/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 0 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.1 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-120) edge 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (F5) | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 3.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 3.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-117	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	3.5	-120	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Eury Pérez xFIP 3.95
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.14
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 102)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Eury Pérez (RHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-132) edge 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (F5) | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+103	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-132	Selected

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Bailey Ober xFIP 4.84
Brandon Young xFIP 4.40
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 101)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Bailey Ober (RHP)
Away SP: Brandon Young (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal F5 ML — Washington Nationals (+138) edge 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals (F5) | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +138 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +138

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +138 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Shota Imanaga xFIP 3.84
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP)

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (+100) edge 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Kansas City Royals 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 +100

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: FanDuel Kansas City Royals 1.5 +104 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (26)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model run margin: +0.6 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+23.78/$100
✓ Cover prob 61.9% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 14.1% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals away RL 100% (5 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds +100 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blake Snell small sample (3 IP) — stats 3% actual / 97% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (967 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 21 play(s) (B 3 | C 18)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Hunter Brown Over 5.5 (-134) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-120	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.30K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 2/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Brown: K/9 9.2, proj 5.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.8% | put-away% 21.6% | xwOBA 0.293 | top pitch: Curveball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Curveball: 21.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.9%, L7 23.9%, season 21.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/11 (46%) | Season 5/11 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.73
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Martin Perez Over 3.5 (-168) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -168

Selected market: Over 59.2% / Under 40.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-164	+126	-
DK	3.5	-168	+131	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-162	+126	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.2% / under 40.8%); own-line consensus 3/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Martin Perez: K/9 6.9, proj 3.6K over 4.9 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.5% | put-away% 17.6% | xwOBA 0.320 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Changeup: 27.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x)
BVP (active roster) vs Martín Pérez: 177 PA | K% 11.9% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .316 | OPS .886
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 177 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.9%, split 23.9%, L7 24.0%, season 22.6%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters, BVP 11.9%/177 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 24.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.55
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sean Burke Over 7.5 (+120) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 -156 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 2 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 -156 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 7.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-156	+120	Recommended
FanDuel	6.5	-160	+124	-
DK	7.5	+120	-153	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.5K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 0.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 2/3 OVER (3 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.67
Sean Burke: K/9 10.6, proj 7.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 20.4% | xwOBA 0.294 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cincinnati Reds whiff% vs Slider: 33.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .861
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 4/12 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.70 | Season Avg 6.26
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season
K% trend: support +5.9 ppts (recent 33.3% vs season 27.4%, proj adj +2.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Johnson Under 4.5 (-157) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+123	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+130	-166	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Johnson: K/9 6.9, proj 3.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.8% | put-away% 13.4% | xwOBA 0.362 | top pitch: Split-Finger (35% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.400
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.9%, L7 22.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/13 (77%) | Season 10/13 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.92
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eury Perez Over 6.5 (+100) diff 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 6.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-106	-122	-
DK	6.5	+100	-127	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	Recommended
theScore Bet	6.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 15.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.2% / under 52.8%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Eury Perez: K/9 9.8, proj 7.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 29.1% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Slider (42% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Slider: 35.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eury Pérez: 12 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .250 | OPS .667
Opponent K profile: composite 24.3%, split 22.1%, L7 28.3%, season 24.2% (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.05
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 (+103) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+103	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-130	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 14.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.4% / under 53.6%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Shota Imanaga: K/9 8.2, proj 6.3K over 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Split-Finger (40% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .669
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 26.4%, L7 24.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.10 | Season Avg 5.43
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Walker Buehler Under 4.5 (-130) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 4.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 4.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+102	-130	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.9% vs 17% min; cushion -0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Walker Buehler: K/9 7.4, proj 3.9K over 4.5 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Slider: 33.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 32 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.054
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.7%, L7 28.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/32 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.13
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryan Woo Under 6.5 (-152) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 6.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 6.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+122	-156	-
Fanatics	6.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.7K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryan Woo: K/9 9.2, proj 5.7K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.0% | put-away% 19.5% | xwOBA 0.295 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Sweeper: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .628
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 19.9%, L7 27.5%, season 24.6%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.77
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 6.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Mason Barnett Under 3.5 (-142) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-104	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-105	-125	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Mason Barnett: K/9 9.1, proj 3.0K over 3.7 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 22.5% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 16.3%, split 15.6%, L7 15.3%, season 19.0%, active roster 15.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 15.6%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 15.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.25
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andre Pallante Over 3.5 (+108) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
DK	3.5	+108	-137	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	3.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.45K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.4% / under 54.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andre Pallante: K/9 6.5, proj 4.0K over 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 14.2% | xwOBA 0.299 | top pitch: Slider (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 31.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 62 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .339 | OPS .851
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.3%, split 19.1%, L7 14.8%, season 23.0%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters, BVP 9.7%/62 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 14.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.90 | Season Avg 4.09
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Brandon Young Over 4.5 (+123) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+123	-157	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+122	-156	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.55K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.3% / under 57.7%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Brandon Young: K/9 7.7, proj 5.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.2% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.319 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Slider: 35.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.1%, L7 20.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 4.68
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 (-126) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-115	-112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	-
DK	4.5	-126	-101	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-108	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.6% / under 47.4%); own-line consensus 3/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Tanner Bibee: K/9 7.3, proj 5.0K over 5.9 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.9% | put-away% 17.8% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Changeup (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 178 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .253 | OPS .718
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 178 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.0%/178 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.58
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Lodolo Under 4.5 (-105) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-115	-112	-
DK	4.5	-122	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	-
Fanatics	4.5	-110	-120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.29K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 2/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Lodolo: K/9 7.5, proj 4.2K over 5.0 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.2% | put-away% 15.0% | xwOBA 0.373 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Curveball: 25.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Lodolo: 29 PA | K% 24.1% | BB% 10.3% | AVG .269 | OPS .768
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 29 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.7%, split 21.3%, L7 27.3%, season 24.0%, BVP 24.1%/29 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/12 (67%) | Season 8/12 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 117 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Drew Anderson Under 3.5 (-142) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -142

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	-
DK	3.5	+111	-142	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+104	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.3K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.21K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.7% / under 55.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Drew Anderson: K/9 8.6, proj 3.3K over 3.0 IP (season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 1.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 12.5 outs/4.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.286 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Changeup: 29.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x)
BVP (active roster) vs Drew Anderson: 26 PA | K% 30.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .208 | OPS .519
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 16.1%, L7 21.8%, season 22.1%, active roster 18.3%/7 hitters, BVP 30.8%/26 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 18.0%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.3% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 35/41 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: K L10: 10/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
K% trend: headwind -12.7 ppts (recent 14.3% vs season 27.0%, proj adj -6.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kyle Harrison Under 5.5 (-144) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 5.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion -0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Kyle Harrison: K/9 11.7, proj 5.2K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.3% | put-away% 20.8% | xwOBA 0.270 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 1% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 20.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.94x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kyle Harrison: 55 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 3.6% | AVG .283 | OPS .856
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.1%, split 20.5%, L7 17.8%, season 21.9%, BVP 20.0%/55 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 9/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/18 (44%) | Season 8/18 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.30 | Season Avg 6.17
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5
K% trend: support +3.3 ppts (recent 34.4% vs season 31.1%, proj adj +1.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: Opp lineup wRC+ 97 vs LHP — neutral | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.94) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Wacha Under 4.5 (-130) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -130

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	+102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.2K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.25K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Wacha: K/9 6.9, proj 4.2K over 6.0 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.315 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 96 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .386 | OPS 1.050
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 96 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.3%, L7 18.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 15.6%/96 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/23 (30%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.87
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jake Irvin Over 4.5 (+133) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	4.5	+133	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+126	-162	-
Fanatics	4.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.5% / under 59.5%); own-line consensus 0/3 OVER (3 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jake Irvin: K/9 8.8, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 17.5% | xwOBA 0.353 | top pitch: Curveball (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Curveball: 32.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 26% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8%, active roster 20.6%/8 hitters (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.6% (8 hitters)
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.77
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Weathers Over 6.5 (+121) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+120	-156	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+120	-160	-
DK	6.5	+121	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+118	-150	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+115	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.8K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 5.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.32K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.7% / under 57.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ryan Weathers: K/9 9.6, proj 6.8K over 5.6 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 21.5% | xwOBA 0.322 | top pitch: Sweeper (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Sweeper: 32.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 32 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .527
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 32 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 18.1%, L7 20.0%, season 22.9%, BVP 34.4%/32 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 6.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bailey Ober Under 4.5 (-124) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -124

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+109	-141	-
DK	4.5	-102	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.20K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.7% / under 52.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bailey Ober: K/9 6.0, proj 4.3K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 19.8% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 64 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .596
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 25.0%/64 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.71
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Nick Martinez Under 3.5 (-144) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -144

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	3.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 3.5% vs 17% min; cushion -0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Nick Martinez: K/9 4.6, proj 3.4K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books))
Savant: whiff% 17.5% | put-away% 13.8% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Changeup (33% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 28 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .424
BVP K adjustment: 0.99x from 28 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.9%, L7 25.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 3.32
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Patrick Sandoval Over 4.5 (+106) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+120	-160	-
DK	4.5	+106	-135	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-158	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	+120	-160	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.8% / under 54.2%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Patrick Sandoval: K/9 9.1, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 27.0% | put-away% 22.4% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Changeup: 29.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .246 | OPS .609
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 64 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.5%, L7 23.0%, season 19.7%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.1%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 4/5 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 261 play(s) (B 1 | C 247 | D 13)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-111) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Noelvi Marte Over 0.5 (-150) diff 297.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 297.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 76/114 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 297% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-160) diff 297.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 297.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/113 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 79/113 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.81

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 297% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 0.5 (-150) diff 297.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.99 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 297.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/58 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 76/114 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.77

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 297% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-180) diff 288.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 288.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 64/111 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.68

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 288% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Freeman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 286.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 286.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 22 PA | 8/17 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.297
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Tyler Freeman -- Injured 10-Day
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/57 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 44/59 over 0.5 (75%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 85/116 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.80

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Tyler Freeman -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 287% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 266.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 266.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.361 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-165) diff 266.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 266.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.361 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.92

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 0.5 (-190) diff 256.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 256.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.576 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/118 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/64 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 40/54 over 0.5 (74%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 81/118 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.83

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 257% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 (-150) diff 249.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.75 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 249.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter TB: 70/111 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.75

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 249% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (-150) diff 241.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/119 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter TB: 41/62 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 75/119 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.78

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 242% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 0.5 (-190) diff 232.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 232.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 232% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nicky Lopez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 224.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/59 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 87/115 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.89

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-130) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronny Simon Over 0.5 (-149) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 0.5 (-165) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-118) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 0.5 (-180) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-140) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (-130) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-105) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joe Mack Over 0.5 (+110) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+109	-141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Gonzalez Over 0.5 (-110) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (+100) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	-
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leo Jimenez Over 0.5 (-114) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (+100) diff 222.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (-140) diff 221.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 24 PA | 4/20 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/108 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/56 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 70/108 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hector Rodriguez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.255 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/57 over 0.5 (74%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 76/108 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.66

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.340 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/89 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/45 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 28/44 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 55/89 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 0.5 (-165) diff 217.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-130) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-180) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 0.5 (-140) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-130) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-110) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (+100) diff 215.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-140) diff 215.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zack Gelof Over 0.5 (-180) diff 215.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-160) diff 215.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-180) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (-150) diff 213.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-190) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-190) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-125) diff 212.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Torrens Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-130) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +144; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-150) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dane Myers Over 0.5 (-140) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edgar Quero Over 0.5 (-180) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt McLain Over 0.5 (-110) diff 211.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 0.5 (-180) diff 210.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.369 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.98 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 44/60 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 85/114 over 0.5 (75%), avg 1.82

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-190) diff 208.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.257 (66 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 42/59 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 80/119 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.66

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-140) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-140) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-165) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-135) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Blaze Jordan Over 0.5 (-200) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-190) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Everson Pereira Over 0.5 (-108) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.8% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Evan Carter Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 0.5 -180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (+120) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-130) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-110) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (-110) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (-110) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 0.5 (-160) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (-130) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-190) diff 205.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 205% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 (-165) diff 204.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 204.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.512 (159 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/117 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 69/117 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.62

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (-150) diff 203.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.461 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 73/115 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.74

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (-180) diff 201.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.617 (150 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/117 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/59 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 64/117 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.54

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (-180) diff 201.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 201.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.237 (67 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/120 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/60 over 0.5 (72%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 38/60 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 81/120 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.62

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-160) diff 188.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/55 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 68/114 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Young Over 0.5 (-150) diff 188.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 80/119 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 0.5 (-130) diff 184.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 64/111 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 64/111 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 185% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 173.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.309 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 67/111 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 173.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 174% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-180) diff 165.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 165.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 56/108 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 165.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-150) diff 161.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.39
Base projection 1.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/109 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.39
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 65/109 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 161.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-180) diff 147.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.24
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/106 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.24
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 59/106 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 127.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.316 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 60/114 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-130) diff 114.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 114.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.244 (51 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/107 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 63/107 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 114.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 114.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.57 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-165) diff 106.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 106.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.525 (111 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 106.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 106.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.53 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-120) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.04
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.453 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 58/114 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 87.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+149) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.28
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+140) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.28
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 52.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.28
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter TB: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-126) diff 46.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter TB: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.72 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.215 (14 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter TB: 56/111 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-118) diff 43.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.582 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-131) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.378 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/116 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 49/116 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+113) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.289
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/114 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 50/114 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+118) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/85 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 20/40 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 35/85 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+115) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter TB: 44/109 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-102) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.540 (13 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/113 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 50/113 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-112) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 54/114 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-139) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-139	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+130) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+111) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 3/17 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .458
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/109 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.26 | Day Batter TB: 48/109 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-180) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.340 (47 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter TB: 72/109 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 (+131) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.625 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter TB: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+136) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 44/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 22 PA | 8/17 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.297
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/116 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 53/116 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+114) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.335 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 45/116 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+116) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.379 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 50/113 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/51 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 50/113 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-179) diff 25.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.19
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/50 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 76/102 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+115) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 1.259 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/109 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/109 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-104) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.301 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/91 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/45 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 42/91 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — CJ Abrams Over 1.5 (+140) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.275 (14 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.37 | Day Batter TB: 51/116 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+122) diff 23.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.637 (77 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/120 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 50/120 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+121) diff 22.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/60 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 63/119 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-182) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/56 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 76/111 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-194) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/115 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 78/115 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+135) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 48/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+106) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.568 (53 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/104 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 41/104 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-104) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-103	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.411 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/119 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 48/119 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+111) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (+103) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/101 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 44/101 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+123) diff 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.570 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/101 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 19/47 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 46/101 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-194) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/111 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 39/58 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 73/111 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Under 1.5 (-195) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 78/119 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 78/119 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Under 1.5 (-171) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.26
Base projection 1.26 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 51/65 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 30/52 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 81/117 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+117) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 50/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-172) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.415 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/98 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/98 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+116) diff 16.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (37 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/96 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 40/96 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 43/106 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 43/106 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+113) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/112 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 54/112 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-183) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 78/112 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+130) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.484 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/56 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/111 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-195) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+145	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.440 (125 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/99 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/52 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 58/99 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-180) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/117 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 46/59 under 1.5 (78%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 82/117 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-146) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/111 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 68/111 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sal Stewart Over 1.5 (+121) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.321 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/117 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter TB: 45/117 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+130) diff 11.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/116 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 48/116 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (+115) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+128) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.199 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-160) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.414 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 55/87 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/44 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 55/87 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-111) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/115 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 49/115 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Crews Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Under 1.5 (-191) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.363 (52 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 42/60 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.269 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+112) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 53/115 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+128) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 34 PA | 8/30 | HR 0 | K% 26.5% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/116 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 53/116 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+109) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (39 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-191) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/114 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 79/114 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-199) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 69/114 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+130) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 46/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-209) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+156	-209	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (61 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.31 | Away Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-186) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.439 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 70/111 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (+136) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+139) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+136) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+142) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-183) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (65 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/63 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 75/118 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+137) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.255 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/108 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/108 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+155) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +161 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/116 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 45/116 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+136) diff 6.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.375 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/109 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/49 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 46/109 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.364 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/116 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.17 | Away Batter TB: 18/57 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 39/116 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-192	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+113) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+105) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-198) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.335 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 54/89 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/49 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 54/89 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (+129) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.218 (26 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-110) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+150) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+134) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+108) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+126) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+151) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.173 (10 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (+123) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+129) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+116) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+143) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 20/54 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 44/115 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 16 PA | 7/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 40/119 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 40/119 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+112) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 (+155) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+142) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+142	-189	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+140) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+116) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (127 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/116 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 44/116 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-156) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/117 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37 | Day Batter TB: 75/117 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+150) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (48 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+124) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.536 (179 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 37/100 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/49 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 37/100 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 42/114 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+147) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+143	-193	-
DK	1.5	+147	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (53 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/117 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 49/117 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+127) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 42/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.464 (145 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/118 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 48/118 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+138) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+123) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.369 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/107 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 41/107 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+102) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-101) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+140) diff 2.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+136) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/55 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 26/59 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 35/95 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 17/48 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.33 | Day Batter TB: 35/95 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+147) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Under 1.5 (-169) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (47 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/101 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 26/47 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 55/101 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 43/116 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Under 1.5 (-180) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/101 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 34/52 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 58/101 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+102) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (85 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 43/116 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-212) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+157	-212	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.23 | Away Batter TB: 27/57 under 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 61/114 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy Under 1.5 (-163) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.360 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-112) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.333 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/118 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/56 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 41/118 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daylen Lile Over 1.5 (+140) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.354 (23 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/118 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 44/118 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-181) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.365 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 27/49 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 64/110 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-137) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 75/118 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-180) diff 200.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 200.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 75/111 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 200.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 201% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-165) diff 197.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.156 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 69/116 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 198% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-200) diff 196.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.522 (21 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 78/113 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-150) diff 195.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 24.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 66/117 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 34/60 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 66/117 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-190) diff 188.1% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 80/119 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 188% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-180) diff 174.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 174.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.511 (26 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 38 PA | 11/38 | HR 1 | K% 18.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .763
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/101 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 53/101 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 174.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 175% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-150) diff 151.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 151.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.426 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 63/118 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 151.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.76 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 152% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-180) diff 148.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 148.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (31 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 25/42 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 51/86 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 148.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-180) diff 132.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 132.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (85 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 32/58 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 70/116 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 132.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Over 0.5 (-130) diff 121.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 121.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .258
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 27/56 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter TB: 61/111 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 121.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.61 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-150) diff 118.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 118.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 56/109 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 118.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 (-165) diff 115.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 115.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 62/111 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 115.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-200) diff 107.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 107.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (66 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 70/111 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 107.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.54 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Pitcher Outs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Dylan Cease Over 18.5 (+137) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 18.5 +148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	+134	-179	-
DK	18.5	+137	-183	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+148	-198	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	+135	-195	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 21.897 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 18.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.62 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 121)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 121
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 108 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .198 | OPS .620
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.7%, L7 17.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.6%/108 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.8%, split 7.2%, L7 10.6%, season 8.2%, BVP 10.2%/108 PA (adj 1.02x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/21 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.30 | Season Avg 18.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cristopher Sanchez Over 18.5 (+112) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	18.5	+106	-141	-
DK	18.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	18.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 20.499000000000002 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 10.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.60 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.1% / under 55.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .589
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.3%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.7%, split 10.7%, L7 11.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 13.6%/22 PA (adj 1.13x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.90 | Season Avg 18.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -1.81 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Hunter Brown Under 17.5 (-109) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -109; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-122	-109	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	17.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.524 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 5.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.3 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.02 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.3 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Hunter Brown: 3 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 20.9%, L7 23.9%, season 21.0% (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.1%, split 6.3%, L7 8.4%, season 7.0% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Nolan McLean Over 17.5 (-126) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-127	-105	-
DK	17.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 18.349 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 4.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.4 IP (xFIP 3.33 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.4 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Nolan McLean: 56 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 8.9% | AVG .200 | OPS .566
Opponent K profile: composite 23.2%, split 22.1%, L7 26.1%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/56 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.2%, L7 6.1%, season 7.8%, BVP 8.9%/56 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.46 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Ryan Weathers Over 17.5 (-144) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-139	+105	-
DK	17.5	-144	+108	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+110	-
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 18.153 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.18 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.1% / under 44.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Seattle Mariners): wRC+ 95) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.5 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Weathers: 32 PA | K% 34.4% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .214 | OPS .527
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 18.1%, L7 20.0%, season 22.9%, BVP 34.4%/32 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 9.6%, L7 7.3%, season 8.8%, BVP 12.5%/32 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.30 | Season Avg 16.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Brandon Young Under 17.5 (-121) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-110	-121	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-108	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 16.875999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.40 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.1%, L7 20.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 7.8%, L7 9.9%, season 8.7% (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.5%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/19 (53%) | Season 10/19 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.50 | Season Avg 17.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael Wacha Under 17.5 (+105) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +105

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 17.105 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.1 IP (xFIP 4.37 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 96
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Wacha: 96 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 11.5% | AVG .386 | OPS 1.050
Opponent K profile: composite 19.4%, split 20.3%, L7 18.4%, season 20.4%, BVP 15.6%/96 PA (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 11.9%, L7 6.4%, season 9.8%, BVP 11.5%/96 PA (adj 1.09x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.4%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/23 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Tanner Bibee Over 17.5 (-135) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 17.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-137	+103	-
DK	17.5	-135	+102	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.863999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 2.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.23 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 102)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 102
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 178 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .253 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.0%/178 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 10.8%, L7 11.4%, season 9.4%, BVP 9.6%/178 PA (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.1 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.4%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.30 | Season Avg 17.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryan Woo Over 17.5 (-112) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-115	-115	-
DK	17.5	-112	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-118	-114	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 17.8 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.68 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.3% / under 50.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 19.9%, L7 27.5%, season 24.6%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 11.4%, L7 10.6%, season 9.8%, BVP 2.0%/49 PA (adj 1.06x)
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Burke Under 17.5 (-118) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 17.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 17.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	17.5	-115	-115	-
DK	17.5	-112	-118	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.256999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.4% / under 50.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (Cincinnati Reds): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.2 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 99
BVP (active roster) vs Sean Burke: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 25.0% | AVG .222 | OPS .861
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 23.7%, L7 26.7%, season 25.3% (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.0%, split 10.5%, L7 9.9%, season 9.7% (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.0%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cincinnati Reds) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/23 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.70 | Season Avg 16.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.92 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Shota Imanaga Over 17.5 (-170) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	17.5	-170	+126	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-170	+127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.705 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.0 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.84 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Washington Nationals): wRC+ 106) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash +0.0 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (active roster) vs Shota Imanaga: 49 PA | K% 24.5% | BB% 4.1% | AVG .255 | OPS .669
Opponent K profile: composite 24.6%, split 26.4%, L7 24.6%, season 21.5%, BVP 24.5%/49 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.1%, L7 9.0%, season 9.1%, BVP 4.1%/49 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Washington Nationals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.00 | Season Avg 17.30
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Paul Skenes Over 17.5 (-131) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 16.5 -130 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.3 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books | 16.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 16.5 -130 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 17.5 -129; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	16.5	-130	-110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-129	-104	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-131	-102	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+102	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 17.654999999999998 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.5 IP (xFIP 3.14 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.3 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.4 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.5 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 87
BVP (active roster) vs Paul Skenes: 38 PA | K% 44.7% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .167 | OPS .544
Opponent K profile: composite 23.0%, split 18.9%, L7 21.0%, season 21.6%, BVP 44.7%/38 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.8%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9%, BVP 5.3%/38 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.10 | Season Avg 16.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 8 play(s) (C 8)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bailey Ober Under 5.5 (-137) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.0% / under 54.0%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.96x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 64 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 25.0%/64 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.90 | Season Avg 5.24
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cody Bradford Under 5.5 (-156) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 14.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.3 IP (WHIP 1.32, BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 0.97x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 23.8%, L7 28.3%, season 25.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 1/1 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Tanner Bibee Under 5.5 (-120) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.84 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.0% / under 50.0%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 178 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .253 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.0%/178 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 17/24 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 4.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Cristopher Sanchez Over 5.5 (-133) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.29, BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.4% / under 46.6%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristopher Sánchez: 22 PA | K% 40.9% | BB% 13.6% | AVG .158 | OPS .589
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 16.5%, L7 19.8%, season 20.3%, BVP 40.9%/22 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 6.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Ryan Johnson Under 5.5 (-154) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.14 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.57, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.00x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Ryan Johnson: 5 PA | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .600 | OPS 1.400
Opponent K profile: composite 22.7%, split 22.9%, L7 22.4%, season 22.8% (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Brandon Young Under 5.5 (+100) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-133	+100	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.28, BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.1%, L7 20.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.42
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andre Pallante Under 5.5 (-119) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.3 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.09x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 62 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .339 | OPS .851
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 19.1%, L7 14.8%, season 23.0%, BVP 9.7%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryan Woo Under 5.5 (-150) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.00 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.23, BB% 5.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 19.9%, L7 27.5%, season 24.6%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 5.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 14 play(s) (C 14)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Blake Snell Over 1.5 (+125) diff 46.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.21 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.13, ERA 4.59)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (MEDIUM; season 3.0 IP/GS; assessment 5.5 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 40.9% / under 59.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Blake Snell: 60 PA | K% 33.3% | BB% 5.0% | AVG .281 | OPS .668
Opponent K profile: composite 21.4%, split 22.1%, L7 14.5%, season 21.0%, BVP 33.3%/60 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jake Irvin Over 2.5 (-113) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.11 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.43, ERA 5.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 105)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, L7 21.4%, season 21.8% (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.85
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Patrick Sandoval Under 2.5 (-157) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -157 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.17 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 3.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.8 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.9% / under 57.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Patrick Sandoval: 64 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .246 | OPS .609
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 17.5%, L7 23.0%, season 19.7%, BVP 15.6%/64 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/5 (80%) | L20 4/5 (80%) | Season 4/5 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/5 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cody Bradford Under 2.5 (-134) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.85 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.22, ERA 4.08)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.3 IP/GS; assessment 5.6 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cody Bradford: 14 PA | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .786
Opponent K profile: composite 25.4%, split 23.8%, L7 28.3%, season 25.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 1/1 (100%) | L10 1/1 (100%) | L20 1/1 (100%) | Season 1/1 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 1/1 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mason Barnett Under 2.5 (+109) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.02 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.36, ERA 6.03)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 2.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 13.5 outs/4.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .500
Opponent K profile: composite 16.4%, split 15.6%, L7 15.3%, season 19.0% (adj 0.84x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/16 (75%) | Season 12/16 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Walker Buehler Under 2.5 (-147) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.63 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 5.15)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.6 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.4% / under 55.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Walker Buehler: 32 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .286 | OPS 1.054
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.7%, L7 28.2%, season 21.5%, BVP 25.0%/32 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.65
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryan Woo Under 2.5 (-113) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-117	-113	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 3.68, ERA 4.49)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Bryan Woo: 49 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 19.9%, L7 27.5%, season 24.6%, BVP 18.4%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andre Pallante Under 2.5 (-122) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.75 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 3.70)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.7% / under 51.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Andre Pallante: 62 PA | K% 9.7% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .339 | OPS .851
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 19.1%, L7 14.8%, season 23.0%, BVP 9.7%/62 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Mitch Bratt Under 2.5 (-140) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+105	-140	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.50 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 4.77, ERA 4.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Mitch Bratt: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .333 | OPS .833
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 24.9%, L7 19.8%, season 22.7% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/6 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dylan Cease Under 1.5 (+109) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.4 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.07 over 6.1 IP (xFIP 2.62, ERA 1.83)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.1 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 7.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Dylan Cease: 108 PA | K% 30.6% | BB% 10.2% | AVG .198 | OPS .620
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 22.7%, L7 17.8%, season 21.7%, BVP 30.6%/108 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tanner Bibee Over 2.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.09 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 3.64)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 6.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.1% / under 50.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Tanner Bibee: 178 PA | K% 18.0% | BB% 9.6% | AVG .253 | OPS .718
Opponent K profile: composite 21.1%, split 22.2%, L7 19.2%, season 22.6%, BVP 18.0%/178 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Brandon Young Over 2.5 (-139) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.12 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.40, ERA 3.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.4% / under 45.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Brandon Young: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.000
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.1%, L7 20.1%, season 21.4% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/19 (47%) | Season 9/19 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bailey Ober Over 2.5 (-149) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-149	+112	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.74 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 4.84, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.8 outs/5.6 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.9% / under 44.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Bailey Ober: 64 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 4.7% | AVG .180 | OPS .596
Opponent K profile: composite 24.4%, split 23.9%, L7 25.1%, season 24.3%, BVP 25.0%/64 PA (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Nick Martinez Under 2.5 (+122) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.05 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.60, ERA 2.72)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.0 outs/5.7 IP (2 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Nick Martinez: 28 PA | K% 21.4% | BB% 10.7% | AVG .130 | OPS .424
Opponent K profile: composite 23.3%, split 22.9%, L7 25.5%, season 22.9%, BVP 21.4%/28 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 17/22 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 21 play(s) (C 21)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-257) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+190	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.212)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.292 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 3/29 (10%) | L5 0/15 (0%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/62 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 46/56 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 95/118 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-253) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -253

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+186	-253	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-209) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+156	-209	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-200) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-218) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -218

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+162	-218	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+160	-215	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.246 (85 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 4/24 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 85/116 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-265) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -265 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-233	+173	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+195	-265	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.87 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.87 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.306 (28 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/38 (37%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/116 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.87
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 48/59 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Hits: 43/57 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 91/116 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-243) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -243

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -243 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+180	-243	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+185	-250	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.260)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 88/117 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-228) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+169	-228	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.241)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.307 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 7/39 (18%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/116 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/59 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 44/57 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Hits: 90/116 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-251) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -251

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+185	-251	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.306)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.237 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 18/44 (41%) | L5 11/21 (52%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/104 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 40/53 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 72/104 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-247) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -247

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+182	-247	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.286)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/37 (30%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 86/119 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 45/60 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 86/119 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-220) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Under 1.5 -220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+163	-220	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.277)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359 (81 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 2/18 (11%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/118 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 43/59 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 85/118 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-237) diff 27.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -237 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+175	-237	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/44 (32%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 81/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.07 | Day Batter Hits: 81/115 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-250) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -238 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+185	-250	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.264)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.307 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 16 PA | 7/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/41 (32%) | L5 9/20 (45%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/119 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 40/61 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter Hits: 85/119 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-241) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -241

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+178	-241	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+175	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.99 (AVG 0.247)
Base projection 0.99 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.214 (31 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 6/35 (17%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.99
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/58 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 43/56 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.93 | Day Batter Hits: 83/114 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-268) diff 24.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.396 (63 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 36/59 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 72/109 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-209) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -209

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+156	-209	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.14 (AVG 0.305)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278 (40 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 18/41 (44%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/111 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.22 | Day Batter Hits: 72/111 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-240) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.323)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/39 (33%) | L5 4/21 (19%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/118 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.97 | Day Batter Hits: 77/118 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Brandon Nimmo Under 1.5 (-255) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+188	-255	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.276)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.382 (13 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/37 (38%) | L5 7/18 (39%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.13 | Day Batter Hits: 75/113 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-224) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+166	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.316 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/39 (28%) | L5 9/21 (43%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/91 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/45 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 60/91 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-227) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+168	-227	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.28 (AVG 0.316)
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/44 (18%) | L5 4/23 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/112 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter Hits: 38/57 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter Hits: 68/112 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-154) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -154 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.19 (AVG 0.302)
Base projection 1.19 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/44 (32%) | L5 9/24 (38%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.19
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter Hits: 76/113 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 219 play(s) (C 219)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+105) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.82
Base projection 0.82 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/100 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.82
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/49 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 55/100 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.82

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-350) diff 50.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/111 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 88/111 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-215) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/114 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 79/114 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-230) diff 49.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/118 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/118 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-575) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/113 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/113 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-320) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/115 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/115 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-500) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/109 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 87/109 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-425) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-320) diff 47.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-240) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 78/118 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 78/118 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-215) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/114 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/114 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-425) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-450) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-330) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-425) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-375) diff 42.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 16 PA | 7/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.90x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/119 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 45/61 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 88/119 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-225) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 38 PA | 11/38 | HR 1 | K% 18.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .763
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/101 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 73/101 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-320) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-240) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-255) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-195) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-350) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-185) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-255) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 81/118 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 81/118 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-320) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/52 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-230) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 86/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-125) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-270) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-215) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-215) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-240) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-525) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Meyers Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+130) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/118 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter Walks: 60/118 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.69
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/118 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.69
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/59 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.76 | Day Batter Walks: 60/118 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-350) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-180) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-245) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-245) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-300) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-280) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-270) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/106 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/51 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 76/106 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-210) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 81/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 81/115 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-240) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-185) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-330) diff 36.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/110 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/110 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-280) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Everson Pereira Under 0.5 (-475) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-230) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-425) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-170) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-170) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-450) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-170) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-500) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-525) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-265) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-350) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 84/118 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-525) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-320) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-245) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-340) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-155) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .258
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/111 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 87/111 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+115) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/120 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/60 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 54/120 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.60

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-230) diff 32.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 78/118 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/63 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 78/118 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — John Rave Under 0.5 (-340) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-425) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-300) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-450) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-525) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-225) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-165) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-270) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-185) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-310) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-245) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-450) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-400) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-330) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-230) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leo Jimenez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-245) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 68/95 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 68/95 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-375) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-400) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-500) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-375) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-330) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-245) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-450) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-375) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-135) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-300) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-255) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ke'Bryan Hayes Under 0.5 (-525) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-210) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/91 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 56/91 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-310) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-270) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-340) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-270) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-215) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-245) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-270) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-525) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+115) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/61 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 22/52 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.60 | Day Batter Walks: 51/113 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-340) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/119 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 88/119 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-210) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-425) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 71/113 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-270) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.77x
Opp SP BB% 5.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 73/117 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-230) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/102 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 75/102 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-195) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 3.9% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/107 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 67/107 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-195) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.8% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 68/116 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+155) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.57
Base projection 0.57 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.57
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 51/116 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.57

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-265) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/119 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 73/119 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-320) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-340) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-375) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-210) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-400) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-230) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-400) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-195) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+140) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 21/59 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 46/118 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brady House Under 0.5 (-525) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-340) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrés Chaparro Under 0.5 (-525) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-330) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-500) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Harry Ford Under 0.5 (-320) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+165) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.39x
Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .750
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/59 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 23/56 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 44/115 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-165) diff 23.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/119 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/60 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/59 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 77/119 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+160) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.39x
Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 24 PA | 4/20 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .733
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/56 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 20/52 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 43/108 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-230) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 74/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-375) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 67/113 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/113 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-245) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 24.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .900
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-340) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 77/114 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-350) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/111 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 75/111 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-340) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 70/99 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-105) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/106 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/55 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 24/51 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 44/106 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-340) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/60 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 74/117 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-340) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.39x
Opp SP BB% 10.3% (walk adj 1.21x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-280) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-320) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-350) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/101 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 38/52 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 75/101 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-215) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.8% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/114 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 82/114 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-180) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/111 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/111 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Bleday Over 0.5 (+125) diff 19.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/89 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.60
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/45 over 0.5 (56%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 19/44 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 44/89 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-230) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 80/113 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-210) diff 19.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/114 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-155) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 71/113 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+100) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.74
Base projection 0.74 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 63/117 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.74
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/65 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.74 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/117 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-215) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 22 PA | 8/17 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.297
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-240) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/49 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 77/110 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-180) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .375
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 67/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-195) diff 16.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 16.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/112 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 66/112 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-245) diff 15.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 61/98 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 61/98 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-270) diff 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/85 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 59/85 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+125) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 54/118 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 54/118 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-200) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/107 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 69/107 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-200) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 34 PA | 8/30 | HR 0 | K% 26.5% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .686
BVP walk adjustment: 1.01x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/116 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 33/59 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 66/116 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-200) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP walk adjustment: 1.10x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/119 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/60 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 31/59 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 73/119 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-375) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-195) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 58/98 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/50 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 58/98 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 (+155) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/87 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/43 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 17/44 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 36/87 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-170) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-270) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-270) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-185) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+110) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 43/115 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/56 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 43/115 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+100) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 60/120 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/62 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.67 | Day Batter Walks: 60/120 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-200) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-550) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-245) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 25/47 under 0.5 (53%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 62/101 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-240) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP BB% 9.4% (walk adj 1.11x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 75/113 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+135) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 47/119 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 25/60 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 47/119 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-105) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 55/115 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-170) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP BB% 9.8% (walk adj 1.15x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 71/107 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Over 0.5 (-105) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.8% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/119 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/57 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 25/62 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 44/119 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (+135) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/111 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/53 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 19/58 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 42/111 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-185) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/101 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 27/47 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.53 | Day Batter Walks: 62/101 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-270) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP BB% 8.8% (walk adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 61/96 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 29/45 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 61/96 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 (+120) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 40/101 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/51 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.69 | Away Batter Walks: 14/50 over 0.5 (28%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 40/101 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+180) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/109 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/56 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 43/109 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (+170) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 31/86 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/44 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 14/42 over 0.5 (33%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 31/86 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-350) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 (+140) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.64
Base projection 0.64 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.58 | Day Batter Walks: 54/114 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-105) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.68
Base projection 0.68 | production context adj 0.72x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.84x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.289
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.68
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/59 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 21/55 under 0.5 (38%), avg 0.73 | Day Batter Walks: 52/114 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-240) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 68/116 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (+120) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP BB% 9.5% (walk adj 1.12x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 21/50 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 42/108 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+105) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.61
Base projection 0.61 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 7.0% (walk adj 0.82x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/50 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 51/109 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Over 0.5 (+140) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 8.7% (walk adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 32/89 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 18/49 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 14/40 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 32/89 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 150 play(s) (C 150)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elias Diaz Over 1.5 (+126) diff 71.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 71.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 65/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.35

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (1 books)

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-135) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.6% / Under 46.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.447 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/85 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 27/40 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.35 | Day Batter HRR: 51/85 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-126) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.414 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/113 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/52 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 67/113 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-133) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.36
Base projection 2.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 3/17 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .458
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/109 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 58/109 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-149) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 31/50 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-140) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.575 (37 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/96 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/51 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.61 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 57/96 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (-104) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.426 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/106 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/51 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.39 | Day Batter HRR: 50/106 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.31
Base projection 2.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.391, xSLG 0.576 (56 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 66/118 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.31
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/64 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 66/118 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-138) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.411 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/119 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 63/119 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-158) diff 47.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.2% / Under 42.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.382, xSLG 0.540 (13 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-102) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.361 (82 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+108) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.32
Base projection 2.32 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.361 (82 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 59/111 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.32
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 59/111 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-152) diff 46.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.347 (56 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 62/112 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (-107) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.484 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-136) diff 46.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.426 (82 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.289
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 52/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 52/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-127) diff 45.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-127	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.458, xSLG 0.637 (77 PA, adj 1.09x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/120 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 62/120 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-133) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.426, xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 63/115 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-140) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.214, xSLG 0.218 (26 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-128) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-128	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-110) diff 43.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.15 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.379 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 56/113 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (-149) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -149 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.282, xSLG 0.369 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+102) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.461 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 65/114 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-120) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.720, xSLG 1.259 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/109 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 53/109 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-125) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.325 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/115 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/63 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 71/115 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Under 2.5 (-145) diff 39.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.51 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 39.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-121) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.365 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.10 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+104) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.237 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/120 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/60 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.35 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 68/120 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-115) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.139, xSLG 0.173 (10 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-115) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.161, xSLG 0.217 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 74/115 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nicky Lopez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 35.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.161, xSLG 0.217 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.47 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 74/115 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-115) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.342 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 34 PA | 8/30 | HR 0 | K% 26.5% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-137) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 60/116 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-115) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.439 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/111 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 52/111 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (-140) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.568 (53 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-123) diff 31.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 54/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-111) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.375 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/49 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-154) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -154

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -154 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.246, xSLG 0.304 (85 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-105) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.255 (46 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/108 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-113) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/114 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 50/114 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-118) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.100, xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 53/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-144) diff 28.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-140) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/118 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 58/118 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-111) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.432 (63 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 60/115 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+127) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.347, xSLG 0.448 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/119 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.11 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 62/119 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-127) diff 25.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.225, xSLG 0.222 (39 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/49 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-126) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.354 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/101 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 51/101 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-126) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-125) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/95 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/48 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 46/95 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-108) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.360, xSLG 0.430 (65 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/118 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/63 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 58/118 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-103) diff 24.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.403 (61 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-122) diff 24.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.4% / Under 48.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.536 (179 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/100 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/49 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 48/100 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (+130) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.369 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 65/114 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (-112) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+116) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.346, xSLG 0.494 (29 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+107) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.174, xSLG 0.156 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/116 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 58/116 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-118) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 52/115 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-127) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-127	-104	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.492 (127 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/116 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 58/116 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (-108) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.281 (53 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/117 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 61/117 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+107) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+131) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.461 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.23 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-153) diff 19.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.292, xSLG 0.333 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-164) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+109) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.8% / Under 55.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.397 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 49/108 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 24/50 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 49/108 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-126) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.320, xSLG 0.414 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 42/87 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 20/44 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 42/87 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+104) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 24.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 58/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-114) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.337, xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (-114) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.268 (48 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 52/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.71 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/65 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 52/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-117) diff 12.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.440 (125 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/52 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 52/99 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-117) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.304 (65 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-112) diff 12.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.335 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 45/89 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/49 over 1.5 (61%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/40 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 45/89 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-103) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.251, xSLG 0.363 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/117 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 51/117 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Under 2.5 (-148) diff 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -148 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.25 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/56 under 2.5 (57%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter HRR: 68/115 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (-106) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+104) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+124) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.292 (27 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+102) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.273, xSLG 0.295 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/119 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 62/119 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-107) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.415 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/98 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 43/98 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-116) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+103) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (+127) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (+135) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-105) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.315 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 45/109 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/52 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 45/109 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 (-122) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.215, xSLG 0.194 (49 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/102 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/50 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48 | Away Batter HRR: 31/52 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 62/102 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-105) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -104 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.298, xSLG 0.340 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.14 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/53 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter HRR: 63/109 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 2.5 (-156) diff 4.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 2.38 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 70/119 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 70/119 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (-126) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.39 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/118 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 71/118 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-157) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Meyers Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+125) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+126	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-145) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-143) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 1.5 (-128) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-120) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (-107) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-102) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (-101) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Richie Palacios Over 1.5 (+122) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-173) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-173	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.316 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 71/114 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-128) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.44
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 68/106 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Over 1.5 (-111) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.56
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/117 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 49/117 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-116) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.346 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter HRR: 50/115 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+102) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.276 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/111 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 58/111 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 (-134) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-127) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.3% / Under 47.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-126) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (-113) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (-113) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+106) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+107) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+108) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alan Roden Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.264 (31 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 20/42 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 2.5 (-112) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 over 2.5 (48%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 19/57 over 2.5 (33%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 46/113 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-101) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+119) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-165) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.238, xSLG 0.239 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/111 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 61/111 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+113) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.323 (85 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 54/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.10 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 54/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (-101) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Over 1.5 (+115) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.4% / Under 57.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 (+128) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-133) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Blaze Jordan Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+114) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-159) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -159 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Joc Pederson Over 1.5 (-146) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Evan Carter Over 1.5 (-106) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (-106) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (-103) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+111) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 (+125) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (-104) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+121) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+134) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (-108) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (-104) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Myles Straw Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+130) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+135) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-112) edge 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 7 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 8 books | 7.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 7 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-115	-	-
BetOnline	7	-113	-	-
BetRivers	7	-114	-	-
BetUS	7	-115	-	-
DK	7	-112	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-110	-	Recommended
LowVig	7	-110	-	-
MyBookie	7	-111	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	+105	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Eury Pérez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Paul Skenes elite xFIP (3.14)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-119) edge 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 8 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -119

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 7 books | 8.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 8 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-115	-	Recommended
BetOnline	8	-123	-	-
BetRivers	8	-118	-	-
BetUS	8	-125	-	-
DK	8	-119	-	Selected
LowVig	8	-121	-	-
MyBookie	8	-117	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	8.5	+100	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blake Snell small sample (3 IP) — stats 3% actual / 97% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-106) edge 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.60
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected-line market against 48.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ F5 ML — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Kansas City Royals (+210) edge 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +220 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +210

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +220 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Blake Snell xFIP 4.13
Michael Wacha xFIP 4.37
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 115 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — San Francisco Giants (+164) edge 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants (F5) | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +164 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +164

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER)
Home SP TBD
Hunter Brown xFIP 4.02
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 99)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Hunter Brown (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+128) edge 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +128 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +128

Own-line consensus: N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓–!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.60
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+130) edge 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline +140 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetOnline +140 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Mitch Bratt xFIP 4.77
Tomoyuki Sugano xFIP 4.88
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mitch Bratt (LHP)
Away SP: Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake NRFI — NRFI (+122) edge 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +122

Own-line consensus: 2 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0391 after 0.0200 buffer
Nick Martinez / Mason Barnett announced and matched

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+132) edge 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +132

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0373 after 0.0150 buffer
Paul Skenes / Eury Pérez announced and matched

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — San Francisco Giants (+159) edge 15.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +168 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +159

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +168 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — San Francisco Giants at +159 with 15.0% edge (EV $+34.47/$100)
Away SP: Hunter Brown (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 71.8% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 22.9% ≥ 5% | ✗ San Francisco Giants home RL 40% < 60% gate (5 bets) | ✓ L5 RL 3/5 | ✓ Odds -105 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

▸ Batter HR — 251 play(s) (C 251)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nasim Nunez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 98.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.01 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 98.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0090
Base projection 0.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.215 (14 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/111 (99%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.01
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 110/111 under 0.5 (99%), avg 0.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.010/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 96.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0183
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.340 (47 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/109 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 107/109 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Weston Wilson Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-450) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0360
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.276 (66 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 107/111 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 107/111 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joc Pederson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Evan Carter Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-5000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -5000

Selected market: Over 7.8% / Under 92.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -5000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 111/111 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 111/111 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eugenio Suarez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dane Myers Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt McLain Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Gonzalez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Horwitz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Joe Mack Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Feduccia Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Crews Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Kelly Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 106 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 91.3% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0504
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.295 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 11.1% | OPS .583
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 113/119 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 113/119 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0446
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (56 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.125
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/112 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 107/112 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.453 (41 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/114 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/58 under 0.5 (97%), avg 0.03 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/114 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 89.7% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0526
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.461 (53 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/114 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 108/114 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0561
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.244 (51 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 101/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0541
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (65 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/111 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/111 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-800) diff 88.4% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0598
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.268 (48 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/117 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 64/65 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 110/117 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 88.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0598
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 110/117 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 110/117 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0631
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.439 (48 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/111 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/55 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 104/111 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0707
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.440 (125 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 5 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/99 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 92/99 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0702
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.422 (51 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .444
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/114 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/114 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nicky Lopez Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 86.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.217 (63 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Paul Skenes contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Paul Skenes: 7 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 28.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .571 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0776
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.323 (85 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0702
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.316 (38 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 11 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 36.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .788
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/114 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/56 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/114 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.525 (111 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 85.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0769
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.281 (53 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 7 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .143 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/117 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 108/117 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.397 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/50 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 84.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0755
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 98/106 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/106 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.375 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0811
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/111 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/111 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 11 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 18.2% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .384
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/111 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/111 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 82.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0885
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.522 (21 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/113 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/113 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0932
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.464 (145 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 12 PA | 4/12 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 108/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 108/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1047
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.264 (31 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 78/86 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 37/42 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 78/86 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0776
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.364 (28 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .750 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0982
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/112 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 101/112 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0901
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.494 (29 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 4 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/111 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/111 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 80.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0924
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.352 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 16 PA | 7/15 | HR 0 | K% 6.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 110/119 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 58/61 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 110/119 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.365 (60 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 45/49 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1130
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (68 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 103/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0879
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.301 (13 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/91 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/45 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 83/91 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 79.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1102
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.430 (65 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/63 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1034
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 105/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0973
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.218 (26 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/113 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 103/113 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1053
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 6 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1149
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.414 (66 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 78/87 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 78/87 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1188
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.286 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.354 (47 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Drew Anderson contact suppression 64, HR vulnerability 36 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Drew Anderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/101 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 90/101 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.369 (54 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 15 PA | 4/15 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Young Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.242 (33 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.426 (31 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 5 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .933 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (48 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.8% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.237 (67 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Eury Pérez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/120 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 106/120 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.350 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 1/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .258
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-600) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/118 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 104/118 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daylen Lile Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1271
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.354 (23 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 106/118 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 106/118 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-700) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (49 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/102 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/52 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 89/102 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1182
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.173 (10 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/110 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/110 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1250
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/104 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 93/104 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-600) diff 75.6% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.415 (29 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/98 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/44 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 86/98 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/101 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 89/101 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1348
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.335 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 14 PA | 1/12 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 14.3% | OPS .298
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/89 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/49 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 77/89 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.484 (51 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.403 (61 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1287
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.570 (44 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/101 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 89/101 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-650) diff 73.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1466
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.304 (85 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-750) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.540 (13 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (63 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1368
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 83/95 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 83/95 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.309 (54 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Blake Snell: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-700) diff 72.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.342 (75 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 34 PA | 8/30 | HR 0 | K% 26.5% | BB% 8.8% | OPS .686
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/116 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 101/116 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Freeman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 22 PA | 8/17 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.297
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
INJURY: [IL] Tyler Freeman -- Injured 10-Day
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: [IL] Tyler Freeman -- Injured 10-Day

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 22 PA | 8/17 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 22.7% | OPS 1.297
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 22 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 71.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1402
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.369 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Mason Barnett: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/107 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 93/107 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (68 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 4.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 70.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1560
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.315 (37 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1491
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.303 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/114 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 98/114 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.676 (36 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1386
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.320 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.511 (26 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Martín Pérez contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Martín Pérez: 38 PA | 11/38 | HR 1 | K% 18.4% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .763
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 38 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/101 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/52 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 87/101 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1597
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.257 (66 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .804
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/119 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 101/119 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1491
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1525
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.333 (42 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 16 PA | 2/15 | HR 1 | K% 31.2% | BB% 6.2% | OPS .521
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 16 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/118 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 101/118 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.461 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 12 PA | 2/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 25.0% | OPS .750
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 98/115 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 98/115 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.512 (159 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 99/117 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/117 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 69.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.292 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Hunter Brown: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/114 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 96/114 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 69.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/113 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 98/113 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-800) diff 68.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.269 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 68.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1610
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.576 (56 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/118 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/64 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 101/118 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1610
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/118 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 101/118 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.255 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hector Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.322 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.255 (46 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Weathers contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Weathers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.492 (127 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cody Bradford: 7 PA | 3/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .857 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-500) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.378 (29 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 16.7% | OPS 1.100 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/116 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 101/116 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-600) diff 66.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1776
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.222 (39 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 28% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Martinez contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/49 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-600) diff 66.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.362 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.192 (12 PA, adj 0.91x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Johnson contact suppression 26, HR vulnerability 74 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Johnson: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/114 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/114 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.0% / Under 81.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.285 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.325 (60 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 19% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristopher Sánchez contact suppression 65, HR vulnerability 35 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Cristopher Sánchez: 8 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/63 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1709
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 25 PA | 5/20 | HR 1 | K% 24.0% | BB% 16.0% | OPS .900
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/117 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 98/117 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/115 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 95/115 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 64.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1593
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.199 (12 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 9 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .708
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/113 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/113 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-500) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.360 (72 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 8 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 37.5% | OPS .375
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/109 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 92/109 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Seiya Suzuki Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1881
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/101 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/50 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 82/101 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2130
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.256 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dylan Cease contact suppression 80, HR vulnerability 20 (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Dylan Cease: 24 PA | 4/20 | HR 1 | K% 41.7% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .733
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 24 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/108 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 41/52 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 86/108 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1892
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Blake Snell contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/111 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 94/111 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1897
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/116 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 95/116 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1966
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.270 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.617 (150 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Kyle Harrison contact suppression 72, HR vulnerability 28 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Kyle Harrison: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 1 | K% 18.2% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .773
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/117 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 96/117 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:39 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.277 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.536 (179 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cody Bradford contact suppression 69, HR vulnerability 31 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/100 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 81/100 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 61.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2017
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.293 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.448 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Brown contact suppression 61, HR vulnerability 39 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 97/119 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/119 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:08 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.156 (35 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Patrick Sandoval contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Patrick Sandoval: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Noelvi Marte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-600) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 60.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.397 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.12x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.166 (31 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tomoyuki Sugano contact suppression 9, HR vulnerability 91 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sal Stewart Under 0.5 (-750) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2137
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.321 (69 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-650) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.319 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.568 (53 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Brandon Young contact suppression 48, HR vulnerability 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Brandon Young: 1 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1981
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (62 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 1 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/106 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 41/51 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 85/106 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2041
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.625 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 79/98 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 79/98 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.447 (49 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Walker Buehler contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Walker Buehler: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/85 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 35/40 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 70/85 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-800) diff 58.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2083
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.575 (37 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/96 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 77/96 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-425) diff 57.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2101
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.411 (48 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bailey Ober contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Bailey Ober: 5 PA | 2/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.850 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 95/119 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2252
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.361 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-700) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2252
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.361 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eury Pérez contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2202
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 1.259 (16 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 89/109 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — CJ Abrams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2414
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.275 (14 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Shota Imanaga contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Shota Imanaga: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 90/116 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter HR: 90/116 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-450) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals | Start: 6:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2185
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/119 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/119 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Bleday Under 0.5 (-750) diff 56.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2247
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.294 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.340 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sean Burke contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sean Burke: 8 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 25.0% | OPS 1.167
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/89 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 32/45 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 38/44 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 70/89 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 56.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2083
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.637 (77 PA, adj 1.10x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/120 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 96/120 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.335 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/116 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 94/116 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-650) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers | Start: 6:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2385
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tanner Bibee contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Tanner Bibee: 18 PA | 3/17 | HR 0 | K% 27.8% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .458
BVP production adjustment: 0.97x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/109 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/109 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-300) diff 51.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2301
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.315 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.582 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Wacha contact suppression 50, HR vulnerability 50 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Wacha: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/50 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2857
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.296 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.325 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nolan McLean contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Nolan McLean: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/119 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 88/119 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-450) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees | Start: 7:06 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2832
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.295 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.379 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryan Woo contact suppression 60, HR vulnerability 40 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Bryan Woo: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 82/113 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2342
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/111 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/111 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-750) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 7:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2342
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.373 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.09x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Nick Lodolo contact suppression 21, HR vulnerability 79 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Nick Lodolo: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/111 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/111 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:16 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2966
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 88/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 40.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2966
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 88/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-300) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2881
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 22% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mason Barnett contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 88/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-500) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3119
Opp SP xwOBA 0.310 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Mitch Bratt contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Mitch Bratt: 1 PA | 0/0 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS N/A | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/109 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 83/109 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3070
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.299 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (82 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 30% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andre Pallante contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Andre Pallante: 10 PA | 4/9 | HR 1 | K% 10.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.289
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/114 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 85/114 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.320/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-112	50.4%	70.6%	+20.1%	$+33.58	9	Bet on DK
C	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-119	51.9%	67.4%	+15.4%	$+24.03	9	Bet on DK
C	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Moneyline	San Francisco Giants	DK	+159	36.9%	51.9%	+15.0%	$+34.47	8	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (Total) +20.1%

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Eury Pérez (RHP) | opp wRC+ 118 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs RHP (neutral)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.97)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Paul Skenes elite xFIP (3.14)

C Over 8.0 — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Total) +15.4%

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.3 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP) | opp wRC+ 115 vs RHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.3
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Blake Snell small sample (3 IP) — stats 3% actual / 97% league avg (regression applied)

C San Francisco Giants — Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants (Moneyline) +15.0%

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — San Francisco Giants at +159 with 15.0% edge (EV $+34.47/$100)
Away SP: Hunter Brown (RHP) | opp wRC+ 111 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 58%, bullpen 42%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP (TBD) stats unavailable — used league avg
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.2 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 71.8% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 22.9% ≥ 5% | ✗ San Francisco Giants home RL 40% < 60% gate (5 bets) | ✓ L5 RL 3/5 | ✓ Odds -105 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

8 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:11 PM	F5 ML	Kansas City Royals	DK	+210	30.4%	46.8%	+16.4%	$+45.18	2	Bet on DK
C	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants (F5)	9:46 PM	F5 ML	San Francisco Giants	FanDuel	+164	35.7%	49.1%	+13.5%	$+29.74	—	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-106	48.4%	60.9%	+12.5%	$+18.30	—	Bet on DK
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	FanDuel	+128	41.6%	52.0%	+10.4%	$+18.64	—	Bet on DK
B	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (F5)	6:41 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-120	51.2%	60.9%	+9.6%	$+11.60	2	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (F5)	7:41 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-132	53.5%	62.7%	+9.2%	$+10.23	2	Bet on DK
B	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals (F5)	6:46 PM	F5 ML	Washington Nationals	FanDuel	+138	39.7%	48.5%	+8.8%	$+15.50	—	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+130	41.1%	49.2%	+8.1%	$+13.06	3	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (8 play(s))

C Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +16.4%

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Blake Snell xFIP 4.13
Michael Wacha xFIP 4.37
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Blake Snell (LHP)
Away SP: Michael Wacha (RHP)

C San Francisco Giants — Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants (F5) (F5 ML) +13.5%

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER)
Home SP TBD
Hunter Brown xFIP 4.02
San Francisco Giants pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 106 blended 50% (team 99)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.4
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Hunter Brown (RHP)

C Under 5.5 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (F5) (F5 Total) +12.5%

[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.60
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)

C Athletics — Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (F5) (F5 ML) +10.4%

[IL] Griffin Jax (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Taylor Rashi (Athletics) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Sutter Health Park (NEUTRAL)
Mason Barnett xFIP 4.36
Nick Martinez xFIP 4.60
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.09
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mason Barnett (RHP)
Away SP: Nick Martinez (RHP)

B Over 3.5 — Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (F5) (F5 Total) +9.6%

[INJ] Wilber Dotel (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Khristian Curtis (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Brandon Eisert (Pittsburgh Pirates) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Max Meyer (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[IL] Anthony Bender (Miami Marlins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
loanDepot park (NEUTRAL)
Eury Pérez xFIP 3.95
Paul Skenes xFIP 3.14
Miami Marlins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 102)
Pittsburgh Pirates pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Eury Pérez (RHP)
Away SP: Paul Skenes (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (F5) (F5 Total) +9.2%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[DTD] Kiefer Lord (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
F5 model: 4.7 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Target Field (NEUTRAL)
Bailey Ober xFIP 4.84
Brandon Young xFIP 4.40
Minnesota Twins pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 50% (team 101)
Baltimore Orioles pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 104 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.7
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.01
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Bailey Ober (RHP)
Away SP: Brandon Young (RHP)

B Washington Nationals — Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals (F5) (F5 ML) +8.8%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Nolan Hughes (Washington Nationals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Nationals Park (NEUTRAL)
Home SP TBD
Shota Imanaga xFIP 3.84
Washington Nationals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 106)
Chicago Cubs pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 113 blended 50% (team 105)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.08
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Shota Imanaga (LHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 ML) +8.1%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Mitch Bratt xFIP 4.77
Tomoyuki Sugano xFIP 4.88
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 50% (team 99)
Colorado Rockies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 5.0
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Mitch Bratt (LHP)
Away SP: Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

6:41 PM · decision fi-8bd67bdc7c6f5116

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.0%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -119

Raw Edge

-2.4%

Effective Edge

-4.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.0%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +108

Raw Edge

-0.1%

Effective Edge

-2.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Tanner Bibee · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Drew Anderson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.520
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tanner Bibee / Drew Anderson announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.520

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTanner Bibee / Drew Anderson announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

6:41 PM · decision fi-9dcdadd43497a630

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

48.3%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +132

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.2% / +3.7%

Away starter: Paul Skenes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eury Pérez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.517
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0373 after 0.0150 buffer
Paul Skenes / Eury Pérez announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 3 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.517

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0373 after 0.0150 buffer

Starter status · PASSPaul Skenes / Eury Pérez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-161	+120	57.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-170	+132	59.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals

6:46 PM · decision fi-957426a2d3d86c67

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Shota Imanaga · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:14:49.311130Z

both starters must be officially announced

2 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

7:06 PM · decision fi-15e10faa279886fa

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -125

Raw Edge

-4.7%

Effective Edge

-5.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +100

Raw Edge

-0.9%

Effective Edge

-1.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Bryan Woo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Weathers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Bryan Woo / Ryan Weathers announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBryan Woo / Ryan Weathers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

7:08 PM · decision fi-a57392108e43234e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.5%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -145

Raw Edge

-7.7%

Effective Edge

-10.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -10.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.5%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +122

Raw Edge

+3.5%

Effective Edge

+1.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +1.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Patrick Sandoval · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dylan Cease · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Patrick Sandoval / Dylan Cease announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSPatrick Sandoval / Dylan Cease announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-154	+115	56.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-156	+122	57.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

7:16 PM · decision fi-c35037314e7954c7

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -111

Raw Edge

-2.1%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +100

Raw Edge

-0.5%

Effective Edge

-1.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Nolan McLean · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Martín Pérez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nolan McLean / Martín Pérez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNolan McLean / Martín Pérez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

7:41 PM · decision fi-86578ae380cd4bfc

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -120

Raw Edge

-5.1%

Effective Edge

-6.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Brandon Young · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bailey Ober · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.506
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Brandon Young / Bailey Ober announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.506

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSBrandon Young / Bailey Ober announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-106	-125	48.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox

7:41 PM · decision fi-28d0e6bf2e14ed4a

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -111

Raw Edge

-1.9%

Effective Edge

-3.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-0.7%

Effective Edge

-2.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Nick Lodolo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Sean Burke · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Nick Lodolo / Sean Burke announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNick Lodolo / Sean Burke announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-127	-105	52.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-111	-115	49.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:46 PM · decision fi-6eca16538f5f3a8d

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -119

Raw Edge

-3.6%

Effective Edge

-4.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -106

Raw Edge

-2.2%

Effective Edge

-3.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cristopher Sánchez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Andre Pallante · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cristopher Sánchez / Andre Pallante announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCristopher Sánchez / Andre Pallante announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

9:39 PM · decision fi-166a49d699614c21

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.4%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +108

Raw Edge

+1.3%

Effective Edge

-0.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.6%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-5.9%

Effective Edge

-7.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cody Bradford · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Johnson · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.494
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cody Bradford / Ryan Johnson announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.494

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCody Bradford / Ryan Johnson announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+108	-138	45.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:41 PM · decision fi-9cefd9816cbe237b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.9%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+0.3%

Effective Edge

-2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.1%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-5.4%

Effective Edge

-7.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Tomoyuki Sugano · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Mitch Bratt · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.489
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Tomoyuki Sugano / Mitch Bratt announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.489

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTomoyuki Sugano / Mitch Bratt announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-101	-132	46.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+106	-136	45.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-c6fc3ff0d24e85a8

NRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +122

Raw / Effective Edge

+5.9% / +3.9%

Away starter: Nick Martinez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Mason Barnett · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
Grade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0391 after 0.0200 buffer
Nick Martinez / Mason Barnett announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 2 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · PASSGrade C: NRFI effective edge 0.0391 after 0.0200 buffer

Starter status · PASSNick Martinez / Mason Barnett announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	+122	-156	42.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-3488bba541e9bf49

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.6%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -125

Raw Edge

-4.0%

Effective Edge

-5.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.4%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +110

Raw Edge

+0.8%

Effective Edge

-0.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Kyle Harrison · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Walker Buehler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.516
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Kyle Harrison / Walker Buehler announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.516

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSKyle Harrison / Walker Buehler announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

9:46 PM · decision fi-0b2ce4f1ed09fd02

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Hunter Brown · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:14:49.311130Z

both starters must be officially announced

2 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:11 PM · decision fi-1aa69b69d05413f2

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-0.3%

Effective Edge

-2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -120

Raw Edge

-5.2%

Effective Edge

-7.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael Wacha · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Blake Snell · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-10 · updated 2026-08-11T08:12:32.693648Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael Wacha / Blake Snell announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael Wacha / Blake Snell announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 251 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=251
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Mason Barnett (R)	theScore Bet	+210	-	40.3%	30.1%	+10.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Mitch Bratt (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.1%	23.1%	+15.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Nick Lodolo (L)	theScore Bet	+380	-	37.8%	19.1%	+18.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Braden Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Nick Lodolo (L)	theScore Bet	+600	-	37.8%	13.2%	+24.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Dillon Dingler	Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	36.1%	20.8%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+210	-	35.8%	30.1%	+5.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Walker Buehler (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	35.3%	19.9%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-	Walker Buehler (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	34.8%	19.9%	+14.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-	Bailey Ober (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	34.5%	25.6%	+8.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	-	Nick Lodolo (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	33.6%	21.7%	+11.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.1%	23.1%	+9.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nolan Arenado	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.1%	16.7%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	-	Shota Imanaga (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	32.1%	18.4%	+13.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.9%	19.1%	+12.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kody Clemens	Minnesota Twins	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	31.8%	20.8%	+11.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Josh Bell	Minnesota Twins	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	-	Brandon Young (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	31.2%	18.4%	+12.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	-	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	31.2%	21.7%	+9.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Spencer Torkelson	Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	-	Tanner Bibee (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	29.8%	19.1%	+10.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Max Muncy	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	-	Michael Wacha (R)	theScore Bet	+280	-	29.6%	24.0%	+5.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Nick Martinez (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	29.6%	21.7%	+7.9%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	100	88.9%	-799	Hunter Goodman, Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte	Chase Field HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	100	88.8%	-793	Mike Trout, Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, Zach Neto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	88.2%	-745	Junior Caminero, Tyler Soderstrom, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	100	88.0%	-733	CJ Abrams, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki	Nationals Park HR factor 1.02 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	100	86.2%	-622	Ben Rice, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone, Randy Arozarena	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	100	85.8%	-603	Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Nathaniel Lowe, Riley Greene	Comerica Park HR factor 0.91	-
Watchlist	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	100	85.5%	-592	Colson Montgomery, Braden Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Elly De La Cruz	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	100	85.3%	-578	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	100	85.1%	-573	Pete Alonso, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Ryan Jeffers	Target Field HR factor 0.95	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	100	84.7%	-554	Matt Olson, Eddy Alvarez, Drake Baldwin, Francisco Lindor	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	100	83.6%	-510	Rafael Devers, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Cam Smith	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-
Watchlist	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	100	82.9%	-485	Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93	-
Watchlist	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	100	82.8%	-483	Brandon Lowe, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, Owen Caissie	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	82.5%	-470	Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Manny Machado	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	96	81.3%	-434	Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Kazuma Okamoto, Andruw Monasterio	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (+210) HR chance 40.3% | edge +10.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.288, OPS 0.917, ISO 0.272, TB/G 2.08
Statcast: barrel 13.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.513
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 30/118 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0547, xFIP 4.57, K% 24.5%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.41, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.897, ISO 0.282 (371 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.501, xwOBA 0.359 (81 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Hunter Goodman — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+300) HR chance 38.1% | edge +15.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.312, OPS 0.864, ISO 0.290, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 16.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.5/116.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.461
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 26/109 (24%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0342, xFIP 5.88, K% 17.2%
Savant xwOBA 0.310, xERA 4.03, whiff 16.4%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.056, OPS 0.877, ISO 0.238 (144 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.498, xwOBA 0.325 (66 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Colson Montgomery — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (+380) HR chance 37.8% | edge +18.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.234, OPS 0.741, ISO 0.230, TB/G 1.68
Statcast: barrel 12.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.418
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 25/111 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0336, xFIP 4.84, K% 17.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.373, xERA 6.14, whiff 21.2%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.866, ISO 0.252 (147 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.442, xwOBA 0.338 (25 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Braden Montgomery — Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox (+600) HR chance 37.8% | edge +24.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.234, OPS 0.741, ISO 0.230, TB/G 1.68
Statcast: barrel 12.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 88.9/114.4, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.418
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 25/111 (22%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0336, xFIP 4.84, K% 17.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.373, xERA 6.14, whiff 21.2%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.054, OPS 0.866, ISO 0.252 (147 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Curveball: xSLG 0.442, xwOBA 0.338 (25 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (1 PA)

Best HR Chance Dillon Dingler — Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers (+340) HR chance 36.1% | edge +15.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.238, OPS 0.862, ISO 0.253, TB/G 2.00
Statcast: barrel 11.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 89.0/110.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.513
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 23/109 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0388, xFIP 4.23, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.41, whiff 23.9%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.458, K% 27.8% (18 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.926, ISO 0.293 (322 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+210) HR chance 35.8% | edge +5.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.230, OPS 0.940, ISO 0.250, TB/G 2.02
Statcast: barrel 16.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.569
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 25/109 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0275, xFIP 4.37, K% 19.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.315, xERA 4.18, whiff 21.0%
BvP vs SP: 0 HR, OPS 0.667, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.935, ISO 0.236 (334 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jake Bauers — Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (+360) HR chance 35.3% | edge +15.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.198, OPS 0.881, ISO 0.235, TB/G 1.71
Statcast: barrel 14.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.8/114.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.483
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 21/106 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0301, xFIP 4.25, K% 20.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.41, whiff 19.8%
BvP vs SP: 1 HR, OPS 0.833, K% 16.7% (6 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.053, OPS 0.893, ISO 0.232 (320 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jackson Chourio — Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (+360) HR chance 34.8% | edge +14.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.200, OPS 0.826, ISO 0.203, TB/G 1.99
Statcast: barrel 14.1%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.2/113.3, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.483
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 15/85 (18%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0301, xFIP 4.25, K% 20.1%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.41, whiff 19.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.790, ISO 0.196 (283 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.447, xwOBA 0.326 (49 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+750	0.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Xavier Edwards	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+700	0.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+650	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	+650	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Nasim Nunez	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	+700	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (4 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+900	0.9%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate
Jakob Marsee	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+650	1.0%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Nick Gonzales	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+700	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Otto Lopez	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	+650	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Cold recent HR form
Brayan Rocchio	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	+650	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:08 PM	Dylan Cease	Patrick Sandoval	0.96	18.7%	50.1%	-	+0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Walker Buehler	Kyle Harrison	0.85	17.5%	48.1%	-	+0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	6:41 PM	Eury Pérez	Paul Skenes	0.88	17.2%	47.4%	-	+0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Andre Pallante	Cristopher Sánchez	0.93	17.1%	47.3%	-	+0.0%
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	None	Hunter Brown	0.82	16.4%	46.1%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:16 PM	Martín Pérez	Nolan McLean	1.03	15.3%	44.0%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:41 PM	Bailey Ober	Brandon Young	0.95	14.9%	43.2%	-	+0.0%
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:11 PM	Blake Snell	Michael Wacha	0.97	14.7%	43.0%	-	+0.0%
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	7:41 PM	Sean Burke	Nick Lodolo	1.00	14.5%	42.4%	-	+0.0%
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	6:41 PM	Drew Anderson	Tanner Bibee	0.91	14.2%	42.0%	-	+0.0%
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	7:06 PM	Ryan Weathers	Bryan Woo	1.18	13.9%	41.2%	-	+0.0%
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	6:46 PM	None	Shota Imanaga	1.02	12.0%	37.5%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Mason Barnett	Nick Martinez	1.00	11.8%	37.1%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:39 PM	Ryan Johnson	Cody Bradford	0.98	11.2%	35.7%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:41 PM	Mitch Bratt	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.02	11.1%	35.6%	-	+0.0%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

28 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	74.8	77.7	79.5	6	Changeup (53% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 34.6%, put-away 24.9%, xwOBA 0.256, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	68.1	75.2	69.0	2	4-Seam Fastball (33% whiff, 47% usage)	Savant whiff 27.4%, put-away 36.6%, xwOBA 0.277, arsenal coverage 2 pitch type(s)
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins	66.7	63.3	72.5	7	Changeup (38% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 28.6%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	66.4	72.6	65.0	3	Slider (46% whiff, 19% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 25.4%, xwOBA 0.285, arsenal coverage 3 pitch type(s)
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	66.0	63.1	72.5	4	4-Seam Fastball (31% whiff, 58% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.270, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	63.3	63.2	64.5	5	Changeup (38% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 29.3%, put-away 20.8%, xwOBA 0.286, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	60.1	61.0	61.0	5	Curveball (34% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 27.8%, put-away 21.6%, xwOBA 0.293, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	58.8	73.0	54.5	4	Changeup (56% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 38.6%, put-away 12.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	58.4	61.9	57.0	6	Slider (42% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 29.1%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals	56.7	57.6	58.0	6	Split-Finger (40% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	56.4	59.0	59.5	7	Curveball (41% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 24.2%, xwOBA 0.296, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds	56.3	55.4	60.5	6	Slider (32% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 20.4%, xwOBA 0.294, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees	55.2	53.2	60.0	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.0%, put-away 19.5%, xwOBA 0.295, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	53.1	60.0	45.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 27.0%, put-away 22.4%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners	52.7	60.6	46.5	5	Sweeper (38% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 21.5%, xwOBA 0.322, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	50.6	42.8	58.0	5	Slider (32% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 14.2%, xwOBA 0.299, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	50.4	54.3	46.0	5	Slider (30% whiff, 22% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 22.5%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	47.5	47.9	48.0	5	Slider (41% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 23.2%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.319, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	46.8	49.2	46.0	6	Changeup (35% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 23.9%, put-away 17.8%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	46.2	42.9	50.0	6	Changeup (29% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.315, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	44.1	42.3	47.5	5	Changeup (34% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 20.5%, put-away 17.6%, xwOBA 0.320, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	43.6	40.9	46.0	7	Slider (28% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	43.2	38.4	46.0	6	Sweeper (40% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 19.8%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	42.4	29.8	52.5	6	Slider (29% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 16.4%, put-away 13.2%, xwOBA 0.310, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	39.3	44.6	26.5	4	Split-Finger (35% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 23.8%, put-away 13.4%, xwOBA 0.362, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	37.2	32.5	43.0	6	Changeup (33% whiff, 28% usage)	Savant whiff 17.5%, put-away 13.8%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox	33.6	41.1	21.0	4	Curveball (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 21.2%, put-away 15.0%, xwOBA 0.373, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	23.0	32.1	9.0	7	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 18.1%, put-away 12.1%, xwOBA 0.397, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

28 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Mitch Bratt	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	L	19.2%	4.8	4.6	5.0	80	short	full	52.50	47.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Mason Barnett	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.8%	2.8	4.7	5.0	47	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.8 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Martín Pérez	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	L	18.8%	4.6	5.1	5.0	77	short	full	47.50	52.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.6 IP/start
Brandon Young	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	R	20.3%	5.9	5.7	5.7	99	normal	full	48.00	52.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Patrick Sandoval	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	22.7%	4.7	4.8	5.2	79	short	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Shota Imanaga	Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals	L	22.7%	5.8	5.8	5.8	97	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sean Burke	Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds	R	29.5%	5.9	5.5	6.0	99	normal	full	60.50	39.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Nick Lodolo	Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox	L	18.8%	4.8	5.2	5.1	80	short	full	21.00	79.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Tanner Bibee	Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.9%	6.1	5.8	5.8	102	deep	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Tomoyuki Sugano	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	13.3%	5.5	5.4	5.4	92	normal	full	9.00	91.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Drew Anderson	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians	R	22.1%	1.5	3.7	4.4	25	short	full	64.50	35.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%
Hunter Brown	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.4%	5.7	5.3	5.4	96	normal	full	61.00	39.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Michael Wacha	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	R	18.5%	5.7	6.3	6.2	96	normal	full	50.00	50.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Ryan Johnson	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	R	17.1%	4.3	4.6	4.5	72	short	full	26.50	73.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.3 IP/start
Blake Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	L	22.7%	-	3.0	5.5	92	short	full	54.50	45.50	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 3.0 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Eury Pérez	Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates	R	26.6%	6.0	5.5	6.0	101	deep	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Kyle Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	L	32.2%	4.5	4.9	4.8	76	short	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Bailey Ober	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	R	16.0%	5.2	5.5	5.4	87	normal	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.2%
Nolan McLean	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	R	29.1%	5.8	5.7	6.0	97	normal	full	59.50	40.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Ryan Weathers	New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners	L	25.4%	5.5	5.5	5.5	92	normal	full	46.50	53.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristopher Sánchez	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	L	28.0%	5.8	6.2	6.2	97	normal	full	65.00	35.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Paul Skenes	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins	R	32.0%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	72.50	27.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Walker Buehler	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	18.4%	4.1	4.7	4.6	69	short	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Bryan Woo	Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees	R	24.2%	5.6	5.8	5.8	94	normal	full	60.00	40.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Andre Pallante	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	17.2%	5.7	5.6	5.7	96	normal	full	58.00	42.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Nick Martinez	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	12.9%	5.7	5.9	5.8	96	normal	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cody Bradford	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	22.6%	-	4.3	5.6	94	short	full	69.00	31.00	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	season leash 4.3 IP/GS, recent_form_unavailable
Dylan Cease	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	36.1%	7.2	6.0	6.2	121	deep	full	79.50	20.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

13/13 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Cody Bradford	Cody Bradford Under	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	17.5	13.9	-3.6	20.4%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	short	5.6	94	season+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Dylan Cease	Dylan Cease Over	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	18.5	21.9	3.4	18.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	121	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (4 books) \| books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree
Cristopher Sanchez	Cristopher Sanchez Over	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	18.5	20.5	2.0	10.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 10.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.00 <= 3 min
Hunter Brown	Hunter Brown Under	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	16.5	-1.0	5.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Nolan McLean	Nolan McLean Over	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	18.3	0.8	4.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Ryan Weathers	Ryan Weathers Over	Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	17.5	18.2	0.7	3.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.5	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Brandon Young	Brandon Young Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	16.9	-0.6	3.6%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Michael Wacha	Michael Wacha Under	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	17.1	-0.4	2.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.2	96	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Tanner Bibee	Tanner Bibee Over	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	17.5	17.9	0.4	2.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	102	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryan Woo	Bryan Woo Over	Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Burke	Sean Burke Under	Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.4%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Shota Imanaga	Shota Imanaga Over	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Paul Skenes	Paul Skenes Over	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	17.5	17.7	0.1	0.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.4	87	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

152 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Elias Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.64	1.44	0.60	0.60	2.57 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.52	1.18	0.64	0.70	2.58 / Over	0.40	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.50	1.44	0.53	0.53	2.57 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Dillon Dingler	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.40	1.04	0.59	0.77	2.34 / Over	0.35	season_games=109,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.38	1.02	0.66	0.70	2.30 / Over	0.40	season_games=101,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jordan Walker	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.36	1.09	0.57	0.69	2.11 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.34	0.95	0.68	0.72	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Drake Baldwin	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.32	1.05	0.66	0.61	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=96,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Liam Hicks	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.31	0.99	0.59	0.74	2.14 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.25	1.16	0.60	0.49	2.44 / Over	0.35	season_games=85,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.23	1.06	0.51	0.66	2.23 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.22	1.06	0.58	0.58	2.42 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Josh Bell	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.21	0.93	0.57	0.70	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nathaniel Lowe	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.20	1.23	0.48	0.48	2.20 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Kevin McGonigle	Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers	Over 1.5	2.18	1.10	0.67	0.41	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ben Rice	Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.18	0.94	0.60	0.63	2.15 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Otto Lopez	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.17	1.24	0.53	0.39	2.03 / Over	0.35	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.14	1.26	0.47	0.40	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tyler Soderstrom	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.13	0.90	0.61	0.62	1.89 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ezequiel Duran	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.12	0.96	0.52	0.64	2.05 / Over	0.35	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.12	0.99	0.55	0.57	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Nicky Lopez	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.08	1.14	0.47	0.47	2.03 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Alex Bregman	Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals	Over 1.5	2.06	0.99	0.57	0.49	1.99 / Over	0.40	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Jake Bauers	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.06	0.92	0.57	0.56	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Randy Arozarena	Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.06	1.02	0.62	0.41	2.20 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 5 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes