MLB Bets 2026-08-10

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	958W–474L–0P	67%	-64.97 u	Last 14 days • 1432 settled
Grade A	24W–25L–0P	49%	-7.49 u
Grade B	932W–444L–0P	68%	-55.04 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3406W–2148L–8P	61%	-218.32 u	All-time • 5562 settled
Grade A	254W–198L–0P	56%	-7.84 u
Grade B	3150W–1945L–8P	62%	-208.04 u

145 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter H+R+RBI	Shohei Ohtani	1.5	-151	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Hits	Jacob Wilson	1.5	-229	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-312	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Austin Martin	0.5	-295	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-457	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.5	-441	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Brandon Valenzuela	0.5	-392	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Brett Bateman	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Bryson Stott	0.5	-209	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Carlos Cortes	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-236	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Derek Hill	0.5	-359	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-243	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Gunnar Henderson	0.5	-216	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-385	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-710	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-228	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jackson Merrill	0.5	-377	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jake Cronenworth	0.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jared Young	0.5	-315	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jeff McNeil	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jesus Sanchez	0.5	-417	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jonah Heim	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jordan Beck	0.5	-700	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-331	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kyle Karros	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Lawrence Butler	0.5	-224	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-305	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-443	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Luis Rengifo	0.5	-361	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Luke Keaschall	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Manny Machado	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Marcus Semien	0.5	-325	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Masataka Yoshida	0.5	-375	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-250	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-463	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Mike Trout	0.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Nathan Church	0.5	-508	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Nathan Lukes	0.5	-494	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Nick Sogard	0.5	-211	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Ronald Acuna Jr.	0.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-367	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Ryan Jeffers	0.5	-237	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-620	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-315	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Troy Johnston	0.5	-543	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Ty France	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Tyler O'Neill	0.5	-235	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	William Contreras	0.5	-268	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Willson Contreras	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	F5 Total	Over	3.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Blade Tidwell	2.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	1.5	-169	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Gabriel Hughes	2.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Hayden Wesneski	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Jameson Taillon	2.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Soroka	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	2.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Bryce Elder	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Gabriel Hughes	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Outs	Tarik Skubal	18.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Walks	Dean Kremer	1.5	-164	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Walks	Gabriel Hughes	1.5	-200	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Walks	Jacob Lopez	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Walks	MacKenzie Gore	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Walks	Noah Cameron	1.5	-179	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Run Line	San Francisco Giants	+1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-09	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-121	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Chicago Cubs 10, Kansas City Roya
2026-08-09	K Prop	Troy Melton	4.5	-162	-	WIN	+0.617	Troy Melton: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-09	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	8.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Jacob Misiorowski: 9.0 (line 8.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	537	55%	-19.68u	67	46%	-13.62u	253	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	478	58%	+13.94u	63	60%	+2.91u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	165	58%	+6.39u	19	79%	+6.91u	45	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1818	74%	-41.65u	847	73%	-38.10u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	548	56%	-25.64u	116	53%	-11.44u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	407	60%	-11.02u	85	62%	+0.91u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	10	40%	-4.45u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	29	46%	+3.54u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	5
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	120	48%	-11.65u	10	70%	+2.02u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	6	33%	-2.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	31	52%	-3.07u	22	50%	-2.70u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	590	52%	-56.75u	66	53%	-5.65u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 20 total candidate(s); season N 537, 14d N 67	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 9 total candidate(s); season N 478, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 165, 14d N 19	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 20 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 20/20 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 1 actionable / 18 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 10	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 189 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 29, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 120, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 22	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 1 actionable / 146 total candidate(s); season N 590, 14d N 66	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 146 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 794 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 225 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 771 pitcher(s), 3401 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 582 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 20 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 20 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 11 team(s), 99 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 260 hitter(s) \| 20 SP matchup(s), 790 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 99 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 7 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 20 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, Minnesota Twins, Boston Red Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 20 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 1 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 20 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 339 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 10/10 game(s) with pitching props \| K 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Outs 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Hits Allowed 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Walks 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Earned Runs 20 line(s)/10 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 100
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2174 market side(s) checked \| 2174 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 10 game(s) fetched \| 10 with ML odds \| 10 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 146 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 7 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 627 \| batter bats 313 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 582 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 179 batter(s) scored \| 10 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	-154	+143	-1.5 (+103)	1.5 (-124)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+130	-140	1.5 (-178)	-1.5 (+146)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	-103	-104	-1.5 (+150)	1.5 (-182)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-116	+108	-1.5 (+135)	1.5 (-163)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-106	-101	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	+189	-204	1.5 (-117)	-1.5 (-103)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-154	+143	-1.5 (-102)	1.5 (-119)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-116	+108	-1.5 (+141)	1.5 (-171)	O/U 7.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-140	+131	-1.5 (+113)	1.5 (-136)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	+250	-272	1.5 (+108)	-1.5 (-131)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 86 Grade B | 706 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -171, active roster BVP K% 6.7% over 15 PA, expected IP 5.5 below A-grad…	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	AST@GIA	9:46 PM	3.5	4.7	-171	BetRivers Over 3.5 -162 \| best price	33.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	Run Line	San Francisco Giants +1.5	AST@GIA	9:46 PM	1.5	-	-136	BetRivers San Francisco Giants 1.5 -129 \| best price	+15.7%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (14 play(s))

Pitcher Earned Runs - Hayden Wesneski Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Casey Mize Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Sonny Gray Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter Hits - Ivan Herrera Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.75

Batter H+R+RBI - Ceddanne Rafaela Over

Projection: 2.6Displayed: Over 2.5 +120Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.7Recommended: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.7

Pitcher Walks - Michael Soroka Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Luis Arraez Over

Projection: 2.2Displayed: Over 1.5 -165Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 2Recommended: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Corbin Carroll Under

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Under 2.5 -162Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.9Recommended: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.9

Batter H+R+RBI - Tyler Soderstrom Under

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.7

Batter Total Bases - Edmundo Sosa Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Walker Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Tim Tawa Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 1.5 +146Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Batter Total Bases - Henry Bolte Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 1.5 +143Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Mike Trout Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 0.5 -165Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (-171) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -171

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 3.64 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-169	+130	-
BetRivers	3.5	-162	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-171	+133	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-172	+134	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+280	-525	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 33.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.5% / under 40.5%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta -0.17
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.6, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Cutter (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Cutter: 19.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 15 PA | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: 67% consensus, but diff_pct 33.8% >= 21.3% and raw gap 1.18 >= 1.00

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -171, active roster BVP K% 6.7% over 15 PA, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-136) edge 15.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers San Francisco Giants 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -136

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: BetRivers San Francisco Giants 1.5 -129 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.80/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hayden Wesneski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Blade Tidwell small sample (17 IP) — stats 21% actual / 79% league avg (regression applied)
Hayden Wesneski small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (86 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-146) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -146

Selected market: Over 56.0% / Under 44.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-147	+113	-
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-146	+114	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 27.0% vs 17% min; cushion +1.22K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.5, proj 5.7K over 6.1 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.0 ppts (recent 26.0% vs season 22.0%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -146, active roster BVP K% 15.0% over 20 PA -- retained at B

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (-121) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 18.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 18.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	-115	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	18.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	18.5	-120	-112	-
DK	18.5	-121	-110	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	-122	-110	-
theScore Bet	18.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.542 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.1% / under 48.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.3%, split 5.3%, L7 7.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.2%/125 PA (adj 0.85x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Pitcher outs assessment research gate: expected innings 6.1 below Over need 6.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Bryce Elder Under 5.5 (-136) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.83 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.17, BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.085
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Gabriel Hughes Under 5.5 (-145) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 4.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 4.6 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.89 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.24, BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.3 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.8%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.33 | Season Avg 4.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

▸ Pitcher Walks — 5 play(s) (B 5)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 (-187) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -187

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -187 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-187	+140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.092526537249699 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 5.2 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .630
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.7%, L7 29.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 13.0%, L7 7.7%, season 8.5%, BVP 10.4%/67 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-187); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jacob Lopez Over 1.5 (-155) diff 36.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.8% / Under 43.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-155	+116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-215	+145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.050608670933542 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.53 over 4.2 IP (BB% 12.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.8% / under 43.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 16.6%, L7 15.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.5%, split 9.6%, L7 7.7%, season 8.7%, BVP 0.0%/17 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/18 (72%) | Season 13/18 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Noah Cameron Over 1.5 (-179) diff 35.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -179

Selected market: Over 60.0% / Under 40.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-179	+134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-175	+125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0359820046561157 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.8 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 60.0% / under 40.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 60.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.07x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.6%, L7 6.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.48 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-179) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Dean Kremer Over 1.5 (-164) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-164	+123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.9122561678965708 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.1% / under 41.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .311
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.1%, L7 26.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.8%, L7 10.6%, season 10.3%, BVP 10.0%/20 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.62 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-164) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Gabriel Hughes Over 1.5 (-200) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.4% / Under 37.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-200	+149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8672532156805306 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.4% / under 37.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.8%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3% (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 10.9%, L7 10.2%, season 8.8% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-200); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-175) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.5% / Under 40.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-175	+131	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.5% / under 40.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 15 PA | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-175); break-even ~64%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Over 1.5 (-169) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-169	+127	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 4.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.8% / under 41.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 48 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.6%, L7 28.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.8%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/17 (47%) | Season 8/17 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-169); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (-170) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.26 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.59, ERA 2.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 103 PA | K% 16.5% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .779
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 16.5%/103 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-170) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-135) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.41 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.77, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Christian Scott: 49 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .722
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 28.6%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Blade Tidwell Under 2.5 (-129) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-135	-
DK	2.5	-103	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 3.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.4% / under 52.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.2%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/9 (100%) | L20 9/9 (100%) | Season 9/9 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.67 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/9 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-128) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-128	-104	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.03 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 6.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 50 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .163 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 26.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-166) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+125	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.6% / under 58.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 89 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 36.0%/89 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-166); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 2.5 (-109) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-120	-110	-
DK	2.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.03, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.8%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 under 2.5

▸ Batter Hits — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-229) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+169	-229	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-229) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 66 play(s) (B 66)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.66x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 25 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 28.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .698
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/113 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 102/113 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-800) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-620) diff 79.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -620 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -620

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -620 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+401	-620	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 42 PA | 12/42 | HR 4 | K% 30.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 42 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-620) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-600) diff 77.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-600); break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-493) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -493 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -493

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -493 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+328	-493	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-493); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-600) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-460) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -460

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -460 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -460; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+309	-460	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-460); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-710) diff 63.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -710 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -710

Selected market: Over 17.2% / Under 82.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -710 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+451	-710	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-900	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 87/110 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 87/110 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-710) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-269) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -269

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+190	-269	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-269) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-377) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -377

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -377 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+258	-377	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+350	-575	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/116 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 89/116 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.27

⚠ Heavy juice (-377); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-368) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+253	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-368) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-300) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -300 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-300) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-392) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+267	-392	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-392) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-417) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -417

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+283	-417	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-417) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-494) diff 57.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -494

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -494 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+329	-494	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.3% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-494) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-283) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+198	-283	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-283) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-312) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 80/114 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-312) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-562) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -562

Selected market: Over 20.1% / Under 79.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+368	-562	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-562) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-236) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+164	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+168	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-236); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-543) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -530 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -543

Selected market: Over 20.6% / Under 79.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -530 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+357	-543	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-543) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-700) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-700) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~88%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-800) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-800); break-even ~89%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-443) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -443

Selected market: Over 23.5% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -443 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+298	-443	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 89/111 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 89/111 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-443) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-370) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -370

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+254	-370	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/110 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 86/110 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-370) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-407) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+277	-407	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 79/110 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-407) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-367) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/110 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/110 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-367) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-457) diff 50.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -457 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+307	-457	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 45/60 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 88/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-457); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-237) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-237) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-295) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -295

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+206	-295	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-295) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-367) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-400	-
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-367) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-315) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-315); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-263) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+186	-263	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-263); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-361) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -361 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+248	-361	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-361); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-425) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-268) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+189	-268	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-268); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-385) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+263	-385	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-385); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-325) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	-
DK	0.5	+226	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/100 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-325); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-441) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -441

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+297	-441	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 62/100 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-441) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-350) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+225	-325	-
DK	0.5	+241	-350	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-463) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -463

Selected market: Over 22.9% / Under 77.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+310	-463	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-463); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-315) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-315); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-290) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -290

Selected market: Over 30.7% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+203	-290	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-290); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-316) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+220	-316	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-316); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-335) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+232	-335	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-335) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-211) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -211

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+151	-211	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-211) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-375) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-319) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -319

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+222	-319	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/117 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/117 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-319); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-359) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-359) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-508) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -508

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+337	-508	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-508) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-331) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -331

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+229	-331	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-331) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-296) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Heavy juice (-296); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-262) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -262 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+185	-262	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/115 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-262); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-173) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -173

Selected market: Over 41.3% / Under 58.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -173; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+124	-173	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-405) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-405	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-405) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-224) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+159	-224	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-224) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-335) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -335

Selected market: Over 28.1% / Under 71.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+232	-335	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-335) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-292) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-292) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-312) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+217	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/117 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/63 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/117 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-312) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -375; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/116 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 72/116 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Heavy juice (-375); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-250) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+173	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-250	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-250) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-228) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+162	-228	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-228) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-235) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+167	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+167	-235	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-235) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-243) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-243) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-305) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -305

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+213	-305	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-305) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-209) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -209

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -209 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -209; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+149	-209	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-209) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-255) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/56 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-255) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-216) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/117 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-216) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-151) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.2% / Under 43.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-151	+113	Selected
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.396, xSLG 0.582 (63 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 61/108 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 61/108 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, consensus lean 50%, raw gap 1.0, weak consensus 50% without extra raw cushion, heavy juice -151 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-151) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Over 3.5 3.5 (-115) edge 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (F5) | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 3.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 3.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	3.5	-115	-105	-
BetUS	3.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	3.5	-125	-105	-
FanDuel	3.5	-115	-113	Selected
MyBookie	3.5	-110	-111	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Casey Mize xFIP 3.95
Logan Henderson xFIP 3.41
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 97)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP)
Away SP: Logan Henderson (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (706 signal(s))

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 145 play(s) (A 2 | B 26 | C 117)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-143) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.447, xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 70/114 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-145) diff 70.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 65/117 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 65/117 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-148) diff 66.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 66.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.472 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 66.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 66.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-138) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.550 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/95 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 56/95 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-131) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.22
Base projection 2.22 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 62.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 62.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-136) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-136	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.281 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-138) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-125) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-120) diff 51.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-120	-111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.409 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/118 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 37/59 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 69/118 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-142) diff 47.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-144) diff 46.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-123) diff 42.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-114) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.472 (76 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/118 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 60/118 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-148) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.317 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-137) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.547 (30 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-134) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.226 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/119 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 62/119 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-116) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.189, xSLG 0.227 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-137) diff 27.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -137; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-137	+104	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.227, xSLG 0.298 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-133) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-127) diff 21.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.307, xSLG 0.388 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 58/113 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-107) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (-124) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-142) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-128) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-131) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-115) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 2.5 (+120) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-
DK	2.5	+120	-160	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.56 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.394 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/60 over 2.5 (38%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 19/53 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 42/113 over 2.5 (37%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (-116) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-111	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+118	-150	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/117 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 64/117 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+125) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/117 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 64/117 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.58

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-119) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 64/112 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-131) diff 53.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.312, xSLG 0.413 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/117 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 63/117 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-105) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.392, xSLG 0.537 (47 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-116) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/84 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 50/84 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-126) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-165) diff 45.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Recommended
DK	1.5	-165	+124	Selected
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.404 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-104) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.348 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 67/112 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+107) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+113) diff 41.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-145	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.321, xSLG 0.431 (40 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 (+105) diff 40.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.74 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 63/118 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-165) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-162	+121	-
DK	1.5	-165	+124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 65/114 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+121) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (-111) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-101) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 59/115 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Under 2.5 (-162) diff 32.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-162	+121	-
DK	2.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.69 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.402, xSLG 0.569 (70 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/58 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 43/57 under 2.5 (75%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 82/115 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-109) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.159, xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 62/114 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (6 books) | books against us 40% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-160) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.238 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+100) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-128	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.412, xSLG 0.570 (44 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/100 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 57/100 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-114) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.280 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Under 2.5 (-172) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	-
DK	2.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.79 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 53/90 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/44 under 2.5 (66%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 24/46 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 53/90 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (+100) diff 27.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-106) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.385 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mauricio Dubon Over 1.5 (+106) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.375 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/112 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter HRR: 59/112 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+138) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 56/100 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 56/100 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-105) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-104) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.313, xSLG 0.439 (47 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 67/117 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Young Over 1.5 (+113) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/119 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 57/119 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+130) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.360 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Under 2.5 (-158) diff 23.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-155	+110	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-
DK	2.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.92 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 23.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/106 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/48 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 39/58 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 70/106 under 2.5 (66%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.2% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-119) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-119	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-102) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+120) diff 21.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.242, xSLG 0.303 (46 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/116 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 58/116 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-101) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.454 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brooks Lee Over 1.5 (+105) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.293 (25 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter HRR: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+110) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.297 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-141) diff 18.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.170, xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 68/116 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-105) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.300 (35 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/115 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 54/115 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-114) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.208 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-149) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -149

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-149	+112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.352, xSLG 0.481 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (+102) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.110, xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-101) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.289 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-113) diff 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-122	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.284, xSLG 0.303 (35 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-116) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.388 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+123) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-102) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/88 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/40 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 44/88 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Under 1.5 (-168) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+111) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (+100) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-115	-115	-
DK	2.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.21 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/117 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 35/58 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 71/117 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Under 1.5 (-182) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+137	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andres Gimenez Under 1.5 (-188) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -188

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.256, xSLG 0.335 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 25 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 28.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter HRR: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter HRR: 71/113 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (-101) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+100) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (-104) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+134) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+118) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.245, xSLG 0.337 (52 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-121) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.339, xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/105 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 67/105 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (-104) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-129) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/94 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 46/94 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+101) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+117) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+116) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jorge Polanco Under 1.5 (-164) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-138) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-138	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edmundo Sosa Under 1.5 (-138) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-124) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-114) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+102) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-165) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+112) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (+100) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (+110) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 63/115 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Under 1.5 (-164) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-152) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.165, xSLG 0.191 (77 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/100 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 63/100 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jesus Sanchez Under 1.5 (-155) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Under 2.5 (-128) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	2.5	-110	-121	-
DK	2.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.39 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 38/56 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 67/112 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zack Gelof Under 1.5 (-150) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-123) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (-111) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+101) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+118) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-122) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.44 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-107) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.4% / Under 51.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-107	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-152) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-151	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-105) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (-126) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (-117) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Williams Over 1.5 (+105) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Coby Mayo Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Riley Over 1.5 (+120) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.250, xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/117 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter HRR: 48/117 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-110) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — James Jarvis Under 1.5 (-155) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+130) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-143) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Under 1.5 (-159) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-112) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-116) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.280 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 60/112 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Derek Hill Under 1.5 (-133) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Under 1.5 (-146) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-134) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.203, xSLG 0.198 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (-111) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-116) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-115) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+119) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+134) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+108) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Under 2.5 (-151) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+114	-152	-
DK	2.5	+113	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.49 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/59 under 2.5 (41%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 38/58 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 62/117 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+129) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ K Prop — 18 play(s) (B 3 | C 15)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 (-141) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+105	-
BetRivers	3.5	-127	-105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-141	+110	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 8.8, proj 4.0K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.242 | top pitch: Slider (21% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 25.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.8%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3%, active roster 17.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (-132) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-132	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-132	+104	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.7% / under 46.3%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.3, proj 4.7K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 38 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .294 | OPS .721
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 38 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.8%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 9/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 26.4% vs season 20.2%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 4.5 (-137) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-139	+107	-
BetRivers	4.5	-141	+106	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-135	+105	-
DK	4.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-132	+104	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.12K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.7, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 103 PA | K% 16.5% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .779
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 103 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 16.5%/103 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 (-108) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -108

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +215; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+215	-350	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	3.5	-105	-123	-
BetRivers	3.5	+100	-134	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+105	-135	Recommended
DK	3.5	-108	-118	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 4.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 24.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.87K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.0% / under 51.0%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Hunter Dobbins: K/9 8.0, proj 4.4K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Louie Krupa — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0%, top-6 20.5% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 8/8 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 24.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 4.5 (-157) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 5.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+140	-200	-
BetOnline	4.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	4.5	-134	+102	Recommended
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-157	+123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-156	+122	-
Fanatics	4.5	-150	+115	-
BetMGM	5.5	+155	-210	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.94K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 8.0, proj 5.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alfonso Márquez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 48 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .602
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.6%, L7 28.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.8%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.06
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.3 ppts (recent 16.4% vs season 23.7%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 (-106) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 4.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 4.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+230	-400	-
BetMGM	4.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	4.5	+109	-141	-
BetRivers	4.5	+104	-139	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	-
DK	4.5	-120	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+108	-138	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.8, proj 3.7K over 4.4 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.6%, L7 15.1%, season 19.0%, active roster 15.8%/6 hitters, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 15.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.89
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
K% trend: support +11.5 ppts (recent 31.8% vs season 20.3%, proj adj +5.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Soroka Over 4.5 (+114) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +114

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	4.5	+110	-143	-
BetRivers	4.5	+108	-143	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+114	-145	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.77K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.1% / under 55.9%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Michael Soroka: K/9 8.2, proj 5.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slurve (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Mike Muchlinski — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slurve: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Soroka: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .600
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.0%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (-131) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 6.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 6.36 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 6.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	6.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	6.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-130	+100	-
DK	6.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-128	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.3K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 12.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.82K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Reid Detmers: K/9 11.1, proj 7.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 89 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .743
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 89 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 36.0%/89 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.52
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 33.7% vs season 28.3%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 (+108) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 4.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.3% / Under 54.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 4.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+114	-152	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+115	-150	-
DK	4.5	+108	-138	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+116	-148	-
Fanatics	4.5	+115	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 12.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.56K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.3% / under 54.7%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Jameson Taillon: K/9 8.7, proj 5.1K over 4.7 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.371 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Charlie Ramos — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 50 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .163 | OPS .466
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 50 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 26.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Henderson Over 5.5 (-105) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 5.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 5.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	5.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	5.5	+105	-139	Recommended
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 12.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.67K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Logan Henderson: K/9 10.4, proj 6.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.252 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alfonso Márquez — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Henderson: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.0%, L7 16.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Over 5.5 (-112) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	5.5	-120	-108	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-115	-
DK	5.5	-112	-113	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	5.5	-113	-113	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 49.9% / under 50.1%); own-line consensus 4/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Christian Scott: K/9 11.2, proj 6.1K over 4.9 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Cory Blaser — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Christian Scott: 49 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .722
BVP K adjustment: 1.06x from 49 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 28.6%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.5%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.7% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 3.5 (+102) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 3.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 3.25 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 3.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-220	+160	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+270	-525	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	3.5	+106	-137	-
BetRivers	3.5	+102	-136	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+110	-145	-
DK	3.5	+102	-130	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+108	-138	-
Fanatics	3.5	+110	-145	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.27K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.7% / under 53.3%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Andrew Painter: K/9 7.9, proj 3.8K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Louie Krupa — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.3%, L7 18.3%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (-128) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 7.36 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 6 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 6.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	6.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	7.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	7.5	-120	-108	-
BetRivers	7.5	-113	-117	Recommended
Bovada Direct	7.5	-115	-115	-
DK	7.5	-128	+100	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	-115	-111	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 7.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.58K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.9% / under 47.1%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Tarik Skubal: K/9 10.8, proj 8.1K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Changeup (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 25.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 125 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, active roster 21.6%/6 hitters, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 14.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.70 | Season Avg 7.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (7 books) | consensus 67% (7 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-143) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -143

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+215	-350	-
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	5.5	+117	-152	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	-
DK	5.5	+112	-143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.17K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 44.5% / under 55.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.2, proj 5.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Adam Hamari — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .311
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.1%, L7 26.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (-105) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.2% / Under 51.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-102	-127	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	-105	-122	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 3.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.2% / under 51.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.2, proj 4.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Cory Blaser — 8.6 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.7% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.085
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 52 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 20.3%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 68%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-131) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-148	+110	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-130	+100	-
DK	4.5	-131	+103	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	-
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.11K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 53.5% / under 46.5%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 4.6K over 4.8 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Quinn Wolcott — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .265 | OPS .580
BVP K adjustment: 0.93x from 35 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Blade Tidwell Under 3.5 (+109) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 3.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 +109

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 3.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+165	-240	-
BetMGM	3.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	3.5	-143	+110	-
BetRivers	3.5	-134	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-140	+109	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-142	+112	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.9% / under 45.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Blade Tidwell: K/9 7.6, proj 3.4K over 3.6 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 36.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/9 (100%) | L20 9/9 (100%) | Season 9/9 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.44 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: K L10: 9/9 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 (-106) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 6.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 6.38 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 7 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 6.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	6.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	6.5	+104	-137	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	-110	-120	-
DK	6.5	-106	-120	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	-108	-118	-
Fanatics	6.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.5% / under 51.5%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 9.7, proj 6.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .630
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.7%, L7 29.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 10/24 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 17 play(s) (B 1 | C 16)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-280) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -280

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	0.5	-270	+200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
DK	1.5	+205	-280	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 10/23 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/62 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 93/117 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-286) diff 45.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -286

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -286 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.84 (AVG 0.227)
Base projection 0.84 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.309 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 4/17 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/114 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.84
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/59 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.82 | Day Batter Hits: 88/114 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.84

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — J.T. Realmuto Under 1.5 (-286) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -286 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -286

Selected market: Over 30.4% / Under 69.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -286 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-234) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+173	-234	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-223) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+165	-223	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.302)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/90 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/44 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 60/90 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-222) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 4/24 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 85/116 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-269) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 -260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+188	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+197	-269	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.10 (AVG 0.306)
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.237 (45 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 17/45 (38%) | L5 13/23 (56%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/103 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/52 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 71/103 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-264) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Recommended
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306 (58 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 81/114 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-199) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -199 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -199 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359 (81 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 8/36 (22%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 84/117 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-244) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -244

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	-
DK	1.5	+180	-244	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278 (40 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 16/39 (41%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 72/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-255) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -255

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -255 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+200	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+188	-255	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.351 (22 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/35 (29%) | L5 2/15 (13%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 47/63 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 81/117 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-257) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.322)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473 (32 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 77/117 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-278) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -278

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetMGM	1.5	+190	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+204	-278	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.285)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.447 (10 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 13/45 (29%) | L5 8/23 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/62 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 80/114 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-189) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	Recommended
DK	1.5	+142	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 12/43 (28%) | L5 6/24 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 76/112 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-191) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -191 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.278 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 15/46 (33%) | L5 5/25 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/113 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 79/113 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-256) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.319 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 74/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-198) diff 16.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -198

Selected market: Over 37.8% / Under 62.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -189 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	Recommended
DK	1.5	+148	-198	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.320)
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.328 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 12/44 (27%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 67/111 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 189 play(s) (B 3 | C 171 | D 15)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-185) diff 218.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+138	-
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/118 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 42/59 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 80/118 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.67

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-200) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.0% / Under 38.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-182) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 70/114 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+170) diff 361.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 361.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/117 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 82/117 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.27

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 35.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 361% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 0.5 (-155) diff 300.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.00 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 300.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 over 0.5 (66%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter TB: 66/108 over 0.5 (61%), avg 2.05

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 300% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-165) diff 275.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 275.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.431 (40 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.7 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.59

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 276% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 266.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 266.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 78/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-155) diff 258.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	-
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 258.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 259% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 0.5 (-160) diff 258.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.79 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 258.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 259% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-190) diff 226.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-210) diff 226.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 63.3% / Under 36.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-200	+148	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-135) diff 226.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-139	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — César Prieto Over 0.5 (-135) diff 226.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 227% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (-120) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-135) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	-
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-125	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-105) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
Caesars	0.5	-102	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (+105) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +360; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+108	-150	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-600	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 38.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (+100) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.5% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rortvedt Over 0.5 (+300) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +300

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 23.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 23.4% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 221.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-175) diff 221.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-120) diff 221.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (-135) diff 221.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-115) diff 221.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	-
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 0.5 (-105) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	0.5	-109	-122	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 0.5 (+170) diff 220.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-175) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-167	+128	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 64/105 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-155) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-145) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -145

Selected market: Over 54.8% / Under 45.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-145	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-110) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-112	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.72

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Williams Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-160) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-185) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-175	+134	-
Caesars	0.5	-173	+128	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-155) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-123) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (+105) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+107	-139	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-155) diff 210.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sean Murphy Over 0.5 (+105) diff 208.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	-
Caesars	0.5	+100	-137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-139	+107	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-135) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-125) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-120	-108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+117	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oswald Peraza Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-115) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (-110) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-118	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Bride Over 0.5 (-110) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +300; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-103	-125	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-103	-130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-450	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (+200) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	-
Caesars	0.5	-137	+104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-155) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 65/100 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.52

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-155) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-165) diff 205.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 (-175) diff 203.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-125) diff 203.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-122	-106	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-140) diff 203.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 203.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 204% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-185) diff 199.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 80/119 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edmundo Sosa Over 0.5 (-190) diff 196.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Derek Hill Over 0.5 (-185) diff 196.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (+190) diff 195.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +190

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-137	+106	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 0.5 (-190) diff 195.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 195.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.300 (35 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/115 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 72/115 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 195.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 195.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 196% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-190) diff 190.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-185) diff 189.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 189.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 184.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-165) diff 184.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-165	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 (-165) diff 170.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 68/116 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 170.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-150) diff 160.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-149	+115	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	-
Fanatics	0.5	-145	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 0.5 (-185) diff 160.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-155) diff 160.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (-165) diff 156.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 156.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.337 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/116 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 64/116 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 156.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 156.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 156% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 153.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.309 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 42 PA | 12/42 | HR 4 | K% 30.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 42 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 67/110 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 153.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (-185) diff 139.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+133	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 64/110 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-200) diff 137.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-185) diff 131.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (77 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 52/100 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 131.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-160) diff 125.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 125.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.198 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 56/107 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 125.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 125.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-127) diff 117.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 117.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 56/109 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 117.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 117.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-160) diff 112.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 112.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.335 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 25 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 28.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 59/113 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 112.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 112.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-128) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.231 (37 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+171) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +171

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +171 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/117 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.27

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.7% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-112) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/117 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.27

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-106) diff 44.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.582 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+108) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 53/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+131) diff 37.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.537 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 50/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-112) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.394 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+115) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (+100) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-101	-128	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.472 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+115) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.409 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 63/118 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+113) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-164) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Under 1.5 (-197) diff 24.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+101) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.317 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+118) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/48 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-133) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+139) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+119) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 52/115 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+127) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+127	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/84 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 34/84 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-190) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	Recommended
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+100) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/118 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 48/118 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+114) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/117 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 50/117 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-186) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.280 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 72/112 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 72/112 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (6 books) | consensus 60% (6 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-176) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 68/110 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+122) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+149) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +149

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +149 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+149	-199	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+111) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.550 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/95 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 39/95 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-192) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.382 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-192) diff 14.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-132) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/90 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/44 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 22/46 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 49/90 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.404 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+105) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.547 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/117 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 41/117 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Under 1.5 (-175) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 59/94 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+126) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-210	+155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/112 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 49/112 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+117) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +117; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-172) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Recommended
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-199) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -199

Selected market: Over 37.7% / Under 62.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+148	-199	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 63/109 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-104) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+118) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.226 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/119 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 50/119 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Under 1.5 (-173) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -173 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 67/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-207) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 57/98 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+128) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 44/115 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+147) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +147

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.348 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/61 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-184) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-176) diff 7.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.388 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 69/113 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+140) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+134	-179	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (+220) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+141) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+130) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-165) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/88 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/48 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 53/88 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+145) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-170	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.570 (44 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+146) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+111) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+124) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/117 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 42/117 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Under 1.5 (-205) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-184) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -184

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.439 (47 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/117 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 34/59 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 69/117 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (+120) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+142) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+134) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 42/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+118) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+109) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/114 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 48/114 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+106) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.238 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 43/116 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+126	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+150) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +150

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-190	+145	-
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+146) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+137) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+143) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+121) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+114) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-194) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.227 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-158) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-145	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-178) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+101) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+140) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Under 1.5 (-181) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+124) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.298 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-148) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+112	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.481 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 60/113 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Under 1.5 (-206) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -175 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+154	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+129) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.472 (76 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/118 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/118 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.51

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-122) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.569 (70 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/58 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-165) diff 199.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+134	-182	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/99 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/48 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 63/99 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Stubbs Over 0.5 (-135) diff 196.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-130	+101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 0.5 (-115) diff 196.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-115	-112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 196.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.481 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 75/113 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 196.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brandon Valenzuela Over 0.5 (-110) diff 184.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Charles McAdoo Over 0.5 (-150) diff 184.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 184.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 184.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 184% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (-165) diff 169.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/111 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 68/111 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 0.5 (-130) diff 162.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	0.5	-121	-110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 162.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 64/110 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 162.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (-115) diff 160.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Sung-Mun Song Over 0.5 (+100) diff 160.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+100	-135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+103	-133	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	+101	-134	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 160% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-140) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Smith Over 0.5 (-150) diff 119.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+108	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-175) diff 119.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+136	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (+280) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +280

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-110	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.244 (51 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/106 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 63/106 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-120) diff 90.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -114 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-114	-114	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (63 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-155) diff 84.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (44 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 26/54 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 56/108 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 84.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ Pitcher Outs — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-195) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -195

Selected market: Over 61.9% / Under 38.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.67 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 18.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+135	Recommended
DK	17.5	-195	+146	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-210	+152	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-190	+135	-
BetMGM	18.5	+155	-210	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.770999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.9% / under 38.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 17.67 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 61.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 103 PA | K% 16.5% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .779
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 16.5%/103 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.5%, L7 7.7%, season 7.3%, BVP 7.8%/103 PA (adj 0.91x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-128) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	17.5	-128	-107	-
DK	17.5	-128	-103	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 17.708 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.3 IP (recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.97 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 117, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.3 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 117
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.6%, L7 6.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 16.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Elder Under 17.5 (+107) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +107

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-145	+105	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-128	-105	-
DK	17.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-138	+104	-
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.314 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.085
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.6%, L7 9.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.7%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 17.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Under 17.5 (+126) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 18 -125 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +126

Selected market: Over 58.6% / Under 41.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 18 -125 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-170	+121	-
DK	17.5	-167	+126	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-172	+128	-
Fanatics	17.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-
BetOnline	18	-115	-125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 17.490999999999996 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 0.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 58.6% / under 41.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/7 OVER | avg line 17.56 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 38 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .294 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.8%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.7%, L7 9.2%, season 8.7%, BVP 5.3%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 16.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 2/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +1.88 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 7 play(s) (C 7)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Dobbins Under 5.5 (-153) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-155	-
DK	5.5	+115	-153	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0%, top-6 20.5% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.75 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/8 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jameson Taillon Under 5.5 (-119) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-115	-125	-
DK	5.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 50 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .163 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 26.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-124) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -124

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-110	-130	-
DK	5.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 38 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .294 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.8%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (+117) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+117	-156	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.32 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.72, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .265 | OPS .580
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-131) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 103 PA | K% 16.5% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .779
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 16.5%/103 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-101) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Andrew Painter Over 5.5 (+113) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 5.5 +113; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	-165	+115	Recommended
BetMGM	5.5	+110	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-150	-
DK	5.5	+113	-150	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.27 over 4.3 IP (WHIP 1.62, BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.9% / under 56.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.3%, L7 18.3%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Walks — 15 play(s) (C 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Soroka Over 0.5 (-206) diff 96.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 63.0% / Under 37.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-206	+153	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.9836140386924067 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.1 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.0% / under 37.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.89x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Soroka: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.0%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.9%, split 8.2%, L7 5.9%, season 8.0%, BVP 4.0%/50 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Tarik Skubal Over 0.5 (-238) diff 69.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -238 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -238

Selected market: Over 66.0% / Under 34.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -238 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-238	+176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-240	+165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.8462116823546731 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.17 over 5.9 IP (BB% 4.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 66.0% / under 34.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 66.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.85x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.3%, split 5.3%, L7 7.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.2%/125 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/17 (59%) | Season 10/17 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hunter Dobbins Over 1.5 (-115) diff 32.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9855595602045357 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.9% / under 50.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0%, top-6 20.5% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 9.2%, L7 13.4%, season 8.3% (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.75 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/8 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Bryce Elder Over 1.5 (-101) diff 22.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8332230796566222 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.5 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.0% / under 53.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.085
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 6.6%, L7 9.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 7.7%/52 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 (-142) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -142 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-142	+107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8108040641122076 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.40 over 4.5 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .265 | OPS .580
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.6%, split 14.3%, L7 5.6%, season 8.8%, BVP 0.0%/35 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Christian Scott Over 1.5 (-116) diff 20.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.1% / Under 49.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-116	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.803049125097088 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.6 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.1% / under 49.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.95x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Christian Scott: 49 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 12.2% | AVG .233 | OPS .722
Opponent K profile: composite 22.6%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 28.6%/49 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.7%, split 8.1%, L7 4.4%, season 7.8%, BVP 12.2%/49 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); lineup K% 20.7% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (+165) diff 20.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +165

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+165	-222	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8019358816394047 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 35.4% / under 64.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.29x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Henderson: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.0%, L7 16.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 13.4%, split 10.1%, L7 8.0%, season 9.2%, BVP 37.5%/8 PA (adj 1.29x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/10 (20%) | Season 2/10 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-106) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.7091801908336612 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 5.3 IP (BB% 8.5%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.90x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 15 PA | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.0%, split 6.2%, L7 8.4%, season 7.0%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 2/2 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Reid Detmers Over 1.5 (-131) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 52.9% / Under 47.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-131	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6582261476644602 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 5.1 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.9% / under 47.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 89 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 36.0%/89 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 10.6%, L7 8.9%, season 8.6%, BVP 6.7%/89 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Blade Tidwell Under 1.5 (+140) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 61.0% / Under 39.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-187	+140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-215	+145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.40472137771719 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 3.8 IP (BB% 7.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 61.0% / under 39.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.0%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.2%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.2%, L7 10.1%, season 8.9% (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/9 (100%) | L20 9/9 (100%) | Season 9/9 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.44 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 9/9 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Andrew Painter Over 1.5 (-105) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.5757594320007478 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.3 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.9% / under 52.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.05x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.3%, L7 18.3%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.3%, split 8.9%, L7 10.6%, season 8.6% (adj 1.05x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Trevor Rogers Over 1.5 (+108) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.5435596108938676 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.5 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 38 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .294 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.8%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 7.7%, L7 9.2%, season 8.7%, BVP 5.3%/38 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Sonny Gray Under 1.5 (-151) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.8% / Under 56.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+113	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4614772244784027 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.28 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.8% / under 56.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.91x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sonny Gray: 103 PA | K% 16.5% | BB% 7.8% | AVG .255 | OPS .779
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 16.5%/103 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.2%, split 6.5%, L7 7.7%, season 7.3%, BVP 7.8%/103 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Casey Mize Over 1.5 (-127) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-127	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-125	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5147570059036481 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 4.9 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.2% / under 47.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: 1.17x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 48 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.6%, L7 28.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.8%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 11.2%, split 11.0%, L7 11.3%, season 10.7%, BVP 12.5%/48 PA (adj 1.17x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jameson Taillon Under 1.5 (-128) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4878622067319711 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.8% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jameson Taillon: 50 PA | K% 26.0% | BB% 2.0% | AVG .163 | OPS .466
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 20.0%, BVP 26.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 7.2%, L7 10.4%, season 8.2%, BVP 2.0%/50 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.0% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 12 play(s) (C 12)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Soroka Over 1.5 (-126) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.32 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.60, ERA 2.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.1% / under 47.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Soroka: 50 PA | K% 24.0% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .234 | OPS .600
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.0%, season 22.7%, top-6 21.5%, BVP 24.0%/50 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.5% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Dobbins Under 2.5 (-126) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -126

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-106	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 48.0% / under 52.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0%, top-6 20.5% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (-108) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 2.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.84 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.64, ERA 7.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.2 outs/5.1 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.5% / under 51.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.3%, L7 18.3%, season 20.3%, top-6 18.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.5% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 (-161) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	+121	-161	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.6 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .630
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.7%, L7 29.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Bryce Elder Under 2.5 (-134) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 3.30)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Bryce Elder: 52 PA | K% 13.5% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .362 | OPS 1.085
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, top-6 19.7%, BVP 13.5%/52 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.7% (4/6); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (+103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 +103

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-137	+103	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.76 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 5.34, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 54.0% / under 46.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 16.6%, L7 15.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Over 2.5 (-145) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 -145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-145	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	-145	+109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.05 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.97, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-122) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.41, ERA 3.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.3% / under 48.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Logan Henderson: 8 PA | K% 12.5% | BB% 37.5% | AVG .200 | OPS .900
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 21.0%, L7 16.4%, season 21.9%, BVP 12.5%/8 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (-110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.39 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.63, ERA 2.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.9% / under 51.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (-128) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	-104	-128	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.6 outs/5.9 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.6% / under 52.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Trevor Rogers: 38 PA | K% 15.8% | BB% 5.3% | AVG .294 | OPS .721
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 15.8%/38 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-116) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.09, ERA 6.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.8% / under 50.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.96x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Dean Kremer: 20 PA | K% 30.0% | BB% 10.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .311
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 24.1%, L7 26.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 30.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.38 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-106) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-135	-
DK	2.5	-126	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.92 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 6.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.0% / under 48.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Freddy Peralta: 35 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .265 | OPS .580
Opponent K profile: composite 22.5%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 14.3%/35 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 114 play(s) (C 114)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-111) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -111

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
DK	0.5	-111	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 54/99 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-480) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -480

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -480 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+321	-480	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-350) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-550) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-300) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 82/113 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-375) diff 47.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.2% fallback
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-560) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -560 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -560

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -560 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+367	-560	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-312) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -312

Selected market: Over 29.3% / Under 70.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+218	-312	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-375) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-330) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-300) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+210	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/84 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/84 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+117) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +117

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+106	-141	-
DK	0.5	+117	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/117 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 46/117 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.55

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-251) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+177	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 75/105 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-453) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -453

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+304	-453	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-257) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+182	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-310) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.5% / Under 70.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+216	-310	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-650) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.2% / Under 81.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+417	-650	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-232) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -232

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+165	-232	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-451) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -451

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+303	-451	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-242) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-341) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-380) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-359) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -359

Selected market: Over 26.9% / Under 73.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -359 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+247	-359	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-337) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-300) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-502) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -502

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -460 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+333	-502	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-374) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -374 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+256	-374	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 (-333) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -333 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+231	-333	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-429) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -429 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -429

Selected market: Over 24.0% / Under 76.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -429 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+290	-429	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-528) diff 38.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -528 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -528

Selected market: Over 20.9% / Under 79.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -528 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+349	-528	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.3% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-328) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -328

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+228	-328	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/110 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-272) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 81/117 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-317) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+220	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-480) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -480

Selected market: Over 22.3% / Under 77.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+321	-480	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — César Prieto Under 0.5 (-610) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -610 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -610

Selected market: Over 19.0% / Under 81.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -610 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+396	-610	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-150) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+110	-145	-
DK	0.5	+108	-150	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-286) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Fanatics Under 0.5 -280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-368) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+252	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-396) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+270	-396	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-467) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -467

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+313	-467	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 68/106 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-169) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-200) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+144	-200	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Bride Under 0.5 (-225) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.7% / Under 64.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+160	-225	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-287) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -287 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -287 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+201	-287	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-321) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -321

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+223	-321	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-336) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -336 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+233	-336	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-337) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-363) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+249	-363	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-379) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -379

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -360 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+260	-379	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-392) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -392

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -392 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+267	-392	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-457) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -457

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+307	-457	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-217) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+157	-213	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-519) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -519 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -519

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -519 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+343	-519	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-291) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -291

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -290; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+204	-291	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 67/94 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 67/94 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-187) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -187

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+135	-187	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-250) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -250 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+177	-250	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Williams Under 0.5 (-274) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -274 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+193	-274	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-287) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -287

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -275; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+201	-287	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-407) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -407

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -407 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+277	-407	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-116) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -116

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-114	-117	-
DK	0.5	-116	-119	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-230) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+164	-230	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 66/107 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-256) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -256

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -256 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+181	-256	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-261) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+184	-261	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-339) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+235	-339	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-401) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -401 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -401

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -401 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+273	-401	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-488) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -488

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+325	-488	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Enrique Hernandez Under 0.5 (-497) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -497

Selected market: Over 21.8% / Under 78.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -497 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-800) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -800 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+498	-800	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+390	-1000	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 12.8% / Under 87.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+640	-1100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+475	-1400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-600) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-260) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+183	-260	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-294) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -294

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+206	-294	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+264) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +264 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +264

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +264 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-386	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/117 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 60/117 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 28.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+250) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +250 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +250

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/117 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 60/117 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 26.1% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 26.1% (1 books) — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-156) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	-156	+113	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/117 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 60/117 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+110) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+110	-152	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/119 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/62 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 59/119 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.66

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-420) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -420

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+285	-420	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-382) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -382

Selected market: Over 25.9% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+262	-382	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-350) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-296) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 84/117 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-279) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -215 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+196	-279	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-361) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -361

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+248	-361	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-509) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -509

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+337	-509	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.3% fallback
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+101) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+101	-139	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/56 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 23/58 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 42/114 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-261) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -261 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-315) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-348) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-348	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-534) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -534

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+352	-534	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-175) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+126	-175	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/112 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-386) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -386

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+264	-386	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-378) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.34x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 88/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-263) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+186	-263	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/88 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 56/88 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-220) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 36.1% / Under 63.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+157	-220	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-226) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -226

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -226 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+161	-226	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-240) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 66/108 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+112) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +112

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 0.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+112	-155	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 52/115 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-206) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -206 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+147	-206	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 75/118 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (+122) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +122

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.34x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/118 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/59 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 42/118 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-184) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -184

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+132	-184	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/105 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 61/105 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-250) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -250

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+177	-250	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-181) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -181

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+130	-181	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/61 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 61/112 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-242) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -242

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+172	-242	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-212) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -212 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -212

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -212 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+151	-212	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/90 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/44 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 56/90 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+109) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+109	-151	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 51/108 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-216) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -216

Selected market: Over 36.5% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+154	-216	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 66/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (+184) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +184 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +184

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +184 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+178	-245	-
DK	0.5	+184	-261	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/95 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/50 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 16/45 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 35/95 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+131) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+131	-182	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 40/106 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-207) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -207

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-207	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/118 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 72/118 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-160) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+115	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/58 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 67/115 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-251) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+178	-251	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-169) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+122	-169	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/112 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-441) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -441

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+297	-441	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-163) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+118	-163	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-552) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -552 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -552

Selected market: Over 20.4% / Under 79.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -552 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+362	-552	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ No HR — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.544 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.59)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.551)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blade Tidwell pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.308, HH% 42.9, mix ST/FF, n=282)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.94, expected pen 4.0 IP)
Houston Astros bullpen HR 1.02x (vulnerability 1.12, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 21.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.3%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 66 F Wind-out: 9.1 mph-eq
Home SP (Blade Tidwell): 0.0137 HR/BF Away SP (Hayden Wesneski): 0.0000 HR/BF
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.544 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.59)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.551)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blade Tidwell pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.308, HH% 42.9, mix ST/FF, n=282)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.94, expected pen 4.0 IP)
Houston Astros bullpen HR 1.02x (vulnerability 1.12, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 21.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.3%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 66 F Wind-out: 9.1 mph-eq
Home SP (Blade Tidwell): 0.0137 HR/BF Away SP (Hayden Wesneski): 0.0000 HR/BF
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-110) edge 18.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 7 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -110

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 7 -107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-110	-	-
BetOnline	7	-110	-	-
BetRivers	7	-113	-	-
BetUS	7	-115	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-115	-	-
DK	7	-110	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-115	-	-
LowVig	7	-107	-	Recommended
MyBookie	7	-110	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+125	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Logan Henderson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 97)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Logan Henderson elite xFIP (3.41)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.5 7.5 (+103) edge 16.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Over 7 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 +103

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7.5

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 7 at 2 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Over 7 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 7.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	7	-125	-	-
MyBookie	7	-120	-	Recommended
BetMGM	7.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	7.5	+102	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	+105	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+100	-	-
DK	7.5	+103	-	Selected
FanDuel	7.5	+102	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+105	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Tarik Skubal elite xFIP (2.63)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Colorado Rockies (+140) edge 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie +153 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +140

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: MyBookie +153 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Michael Soroka xFIP 3.60
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.03
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 98)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Michael Soroka (RHP)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Colorado Rockies (+189) edge 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK +189 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +189

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: DK +189 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +189 with 15.3% edge (EV $+42.53/$100)
Home SP: Michael Soroka (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Gabriel Hughes small sample (29 IP) — stats 36% actual / 64% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 68.7% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 17.2% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -117 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 179 play(s) (C 179)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sung-Mun Song Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/110 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 110/110 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Valenzuela Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Charles McAdoo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 94 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Derek Hill Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Stubbs Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zack Gelof Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-550) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Bride Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sean Murphy Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Williams Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Troy Johnston Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — César Prieto Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0364
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/110 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 106/110 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0450
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.404 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/111 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/111 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.244 (51 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0545
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 88.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0648
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (44 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0636
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (47 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 103/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.198 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0708
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.335 (32 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 25 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 28.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/113 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/113 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0708
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.388 (25 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/113 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/113 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (46 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.465 (19 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0889
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/90 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/90 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-800) diff 83.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.439 (47 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 107/117 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/117 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0893
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0932
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.472 (76 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 109/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/111 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/111 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1130
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.357 (61 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.227 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (63 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-900) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.480 (54 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 76.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.570 (44 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.569 (70 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/115 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/115 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1383
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/94 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/94 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1518
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.280 (68 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-900) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.191 (77 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/88 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/88 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.309 (54 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 42 PA | 12/42 | HR 4 | K% 30.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 42 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.400 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.348 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.369 (47 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.298 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.421 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-600) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1504
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.293 (25 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/113 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 97/113 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-750) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.481 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.481 (56 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.394 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1610
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 100/118 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 100/118 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-600) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-750) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1983
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.337 (52 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/116 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 95/116 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.413 (37 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.488 (59 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-900) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1913
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.300 (35 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.547 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-550) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-800) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-700) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1919
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/99 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 81/99 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2024
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/84 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 69/84 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-650) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2101
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.226 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/119 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.431 (40 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-450) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.472 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.550 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/95 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 76/95 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2119
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 94/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-550) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2150
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/107 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 85/107 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-650) diff 53.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2034
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.537 (47 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/118 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/118 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-350) diff 50.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2321
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.582 (63 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 83/108 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-475) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2881
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.409 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 87/118 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 87/118 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-300) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2821
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3097
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.317 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 84/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2991
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2991
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-600) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3148
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

4 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-110	50.0%	68.7%	+18.7%	$+31.17	9	Bet on DK
C	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	Total	Over 7.5	DK	+103	47.0%	63.3%	+16.3%	$+28.47	9	Bet on DK
A	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Run Line	San Francisco Giants +1.5	DK	-136	55.1%	70.8%	+15.7%	$+22.80	9	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	Moneyline	Colorado Rockies	DK	+189	34.0%	49.3%	+15.3%	$+42.53	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (4 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (Total) +18.7%

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.4 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Logan Henderson (RHP) | opp wRC+ 99 vs RHP (neutral)
Petco Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.93)
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 97)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 112 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.4
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.96, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Logan Henderson elite xFIP (3.41)

C Over 7.5 — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Total) +16.3%

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[DTD] Carter Holton (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.5 runs vs line 7.5
Home SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP) | opp wRC+ 100 vs LHP (neutral)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.99)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 115 blended 35% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 102 blended 35% (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.5
Full game weights: starter 66%, bullpen 34%, offense factor 1.05
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Tarik Skubal elite xFIP (2.63)

A San Francisco Giants +1.5 — Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants (Run Line) +15.7%

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+22.80/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 15.7% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -136 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hayden Wesneski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect
Blade Tidwell small sample (17 IP) — stats 21% actual / 79% league avg (regression applied)
Hayden Wesneski small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Moneyline) +15.3%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Underdog ML value — Colorado Rockies at +189 with 15.3% edge (EV $+42.53/$100)
Home SP: Michael Soroka (RHP) | opp wRC+ 109 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.2
Full game weights: starter 59%, bullpen 41%, offense factor 1.08
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Gabriel Hughes small sample (29 IP) — stats 36% actual / 64% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 68.7% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 17.2% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 2 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -117 within price guard (-160 floor)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (F5)	9:41 PM	F5 Total	Over 3.5	FanDuel	-115	50.2%	61.2%	+11.0%	$+14.39	6	Bet on DK
C	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5)	9:40 PM	F5 ML	Colorado Rockies	DK	+140	39.3%	48.1%	+8.8%	$+15.54	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

B Over 3.5 — Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 Total) +11.0%

[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.2 runs vs line 3.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Casey Mize xFIP 3.95
Logan Henderson xFIP 3.41
San Diego Padres confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 103 (team 97)
Milwaukee Brewers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 114 blended 50% (team 102)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.2
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.06
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Casey Mize (RHP)
Away SP: Logan Henderson (RHP)

C Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (F5) (F5 ML) +8.8%

[INJ] TJ Shook (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Jake Madden (Colorado Rockies) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Eiberson Castellano (Colorado Rockies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Chase Field (NEUTRAL)
Michael Soroka xFIP 3.60
Gabriel Hughes xFIP 4.03
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 50% (team 98)
Colorado Rockies confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 118 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.5
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.11
F5 environment: park 1.01, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Michael Soroka (RHP)
Away SP: Gabriel Hughes (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM · decision fi-aca75eb612a5da70

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.2%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -124

Raw Edge

-4.2%

Effective Edge

-4.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-1.2%

Effective Edge

-1.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.7% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sonny Gray · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jameson Taillon · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sonny Gray / Jameson Taillon announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSonny Gray / Jameson Taillon announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-124	-107	51.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

7:15 PM · decision fi-465582d225ec78ad

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-1.0%

Effective Edge

-1.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -110

Raw Edge

-3.3%

Effective Edge

-3.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Christian Scott · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Elder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.509
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Christian Scott / Bryce Elder announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.509

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChristian Scott / Bryce Elder announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

7:40 PM · decision fi-155804e111f72488

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.3%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-2.8%

Effective Edge

-3.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -105

Raw Edge

-1.5%

Effective Edge

-2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Trevor Rogers · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dean Kremer · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.503
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Trevor Rogers / Dean Kremer announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.503

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTrevor Rogers / Dean Kremer announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:46 PM · decision fi-7e672beaad070f8d

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers +114

Raw Edge

+3.8%

Effective Edge

+2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -120

Raw Edge

-5.0%

Effective Edge

-6.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Andrew Painter · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hunter Dobbins · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andrew Painter / Hunter Dobbins announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndrew Painter / Hunter Dobbins announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+105	-139	45.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+114	-152	43.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+112	-142	44.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

9:38 PM · decision fi-823834fac88b4b18

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -125

Raw Edge

-4.6%

Effective Edge

-5.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +105

Raw Edge

+0.2%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: MacKenzie Gore · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Reid Detmers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
MacKenzie Gore / Reid Detmers announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMacKenzie Gore / Reid Detmers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:40 PM · decision fi-74944df2b5a5cfe3

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.1%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -110

Raw Edge

-3.3%

Effective Edge

-5.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.9%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -106

Raw Edge

-0.6%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Gabriel Hughes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael Soroka · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.491
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Gabriel Hughes / Michael Soroka announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.491

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGabriel Hughes / Michael Soroka announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNconfirmed / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-0666c47831ba9642

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline +110

Raw Edge

+3.2%

Effective Edge

+2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -120

Raw Edge

-5.3%

Effective Edge

-6.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -6.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Freddy Peralta · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Freddy Peralta / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFreddy Peralta / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-105	-120	48.4%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+110	-147	44.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-cd5db7044ceade12

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.8%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -150

Raw Edge

-8.2%

Effective Edge

-9.7%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -9.7% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.2%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +128

Raw Edge

+4.3%

Effective Edge

+2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Logan Henderson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Casey Mize · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.518
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Logan Henderson / Casey Mize announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.518

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSLogan Henderson / Casey Mize announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-155	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-161	+120	57.6%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-150	+107	55.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

9:46 PM · decision fi-d2767245dd572afb

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.5%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -104

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-4.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.5%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -110

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Hayden Wesneski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Blade Tidwell · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.485
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Hayden Wesneski / Blade Tidwell announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.485

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSHayden Wesneski / Blade Tidwell announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-115	-114	50.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-104	-122	48.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:10 PM · decision fi-9e4b1724e3ad1e7b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.1%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -121

Raw Edge

-3.7%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.9%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM +110

Raw Edge

+1.3%

Effective Edge

-0.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Noah Cameron · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tarik Skubal · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T21:36:46.390005Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Noah Cameron / Tarik Skubal announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.511

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNoah Cameron / Tarik Skubal announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-109	51.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-128	+100	52.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 179 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=179
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+210	-	39.0%	30.1%	+8.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	3	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+275	-	35.8%	24.6%	+11.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Noah Cameron (L)	theScore Bet	+230	-	35.5%	28.0%	+7.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	4	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	34.3%	17.1%	+17.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	2	Dean Kremer (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	34.3%	22.0%	+12.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	1	Hunter Dobbins (R)	theScore Bet	+240	-	33.7%	27.1%	+6.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	3	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+475	-	33.2%	16.4%	+16.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	3	Hunter Dobbins (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	32.9%	17.1%	+15.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Nimmo	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	Reid Detmers (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	31.1%	15.6%	+15.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Noah Cameron (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	29.5%	17.9%	+11.6%	98	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	2	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	29.2%	20.8%	+8.4%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	MacKenzie Gore (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	29.2%	17.9%	+11.3%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	4	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	28.7%	20.8%	+8.0%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	4	Michael Soroka (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	28.7%	19.7%	+9.0%	96	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-	Hayden Wesneski (R)	theScore Bet	+400	-	28.1%	18.8%	+9.3%	94	-
Strong HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	3	Christian Scott (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	27.8%	23.2%	+4.6%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	27.5%	19.7%	+7.8%	92	-
Strong HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	Reid Detmers (L)	theScore Bet	+375	-	26.8%	19.7%	+7.1%	90	-
Best HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	MacKenzie Gore (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	26.5%	17.9%	+8.6%	88	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Tarik Skubal (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	25.9%	15.6%	+10.3%	86	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	100	91.5%	-1080	Jordan Walker, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Burleson, Bryce Harper	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	100	90.8%	-982	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.2%	-
Strong HR Environment	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	100	90.6%	-962	Matt Olson, Eddy Alvarez, Michael Harris II, Francisco Lindor	Truist Park HR factor 1.03 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.4%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	100	90.0%	-905	Pete Alonso, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Jackson Holliday	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.0%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	87.6%	-708	Junior Caminero, Tyler Soderstrom, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.4%	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	100	85.7%	-599	Brandon Nimmo, Mike Trout, Jake Burger, Zach Neto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	100	85.6%	-592	Hunter Goodman, Corbin Carroll, Willi Castro, Ketel Marte	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	100	84.6%	-548	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Jac Caglianone, Starling Marte	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	83.5%	-507	Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Jake Bauers, Manny Machado	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	90	78.6%	-368	Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82 \| Wind 13 mph W -- crosswind, minor effect	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 21.4%, P(U1.5) 54.3%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (+210) HR chance 39.0% | edge +8.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.282, OPS 0.916, ISO 0.268, TB/G 2.07
Statcast: barrel 13.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.513
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 29/117 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0403, xFIP 5.41, K% 20.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.291, xERA 3.52, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.967, ISO 0.230 (140 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.501, xwOBA 0.359 (81 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (+275) HR chance 35.8% | edge +11.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.175, OPS 0.790, ISO 0.205, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 12.9%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.486
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/114 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0756, xFIP 4.75, K% 20.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.371, xERA 6.07, whiff 26.0%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.020, OPS 0.466 (50 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.722, ISO 0.205 (342 PA)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+230) HR chance 35.5% | edge +7.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.232, OPS 0.937, ISO 0.250, TB/G 2.01
Statcast: barrel 16.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.569
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 25/108 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0264, xFIP 3.97, K% 22.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.41, whiff 25.6%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.936, ISO 0.277 (162 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0312

⚠ Team lineup not posted

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Jordan Walker — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+450) HR chance 34.3% | edge +17.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.834, ISO 0.207, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 13.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.491
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 23/114 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0465, xFIP 4.67, K% 18.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.346, xERA 5.15, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.195 (361 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (+325) HR chance 34.3% | edge +12.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.818, ISO 0.220, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.1/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.528
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 24/118 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0681, xFIP 3.98, K% 23.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.328, xERA 4.57, whiff 25.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.861, ISO 0.237 (363 PA)
Park HR factor 0.95

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+240) HR chance 33.7% | edge +6.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.310, OPS 0.904, ISO 0.288, TB/G 1.97
Statcast: barrel 17.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.492
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 29/113 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0349, xFIP 4.01, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.298, xERA 3.70, whiff 23.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.292 (316 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

Best HR Chance Alec Burleson — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+475) HR chance 33.2% | edge +16.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.162, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.195, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 11.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.8/111.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.539
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 17/117 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0465, xFIP 4.67, K% 18.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.346, xERA 5.15, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.969, ISO 0.240 (345 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+450) HR chance 32.9% | edge +15.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.210, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.246, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.511
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/119 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0349, xFIP 4.01, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.298, xERA 3.70, whiff 23.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 1.005, ISO 0.322 (314 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	+1000	0.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Mauricio Dubon	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+1000	1.3%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Masyn Winn	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+900	1.3%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	+800	1.4%	Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Geraldo Perdomo	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	+800	1.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Andres Gimenez	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	+1000	1.7%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed
Jung Hoo Lee	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	+900	1.7%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+1200	1.8%	Low season HR rate
Daulton Varsho	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	+525	1.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Nolan Schanuel	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	+900	2.0%	Team lineup not posted \| Weak batter split vs_lhp \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Blade Tidwell	Hayden Wesneski	0.82	21.4% MODEL SIGNAL	54.3% MODEL SIGNAL	-	+0.0%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Casey Mize	Logan Henderson	0.85	16.5%	46.2%	10.2%	+6.3%
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	Tarik Skubal	Noah Cameron	0.97	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	Michael Soroka	Gabriel Hughes	1.02	14.4%	42.4%	11.5%	+3.0%
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	Reid Detmers	MacKenzie Gore	0.98	14.3%	42.1%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Jacob Lopez	Freddy Peralta	1.00	12.4%	38.2%	8.5%	+3.9%
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	Dean Kremer	Trevor Rogers	0.95	10.0%	32.9%	6.8%	+3.2%
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Bryce Elder	Christian Scott	1.03	9.4%	31.7%	5.9%	+3.5%
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	Jameson Taillon	Sonny Gray	0.96	9.2%	31.3%	8.0%	+1.2%
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Hunter Dobbins	Andrew Painter	0.93	8.5%	29.4%	8.6%	-0.1%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (21.3%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (54.3%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.544 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.59)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 1.00x (base lambda 1.551)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blade Tidwell pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.308, HH% 42.9, mix ST/FF, n=282)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.94, expected pen 4.0 IP)
Houston Astros bullpen HR 1.02x (vulnerability 1.12, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 21.4% P(under 1.5 HR) = 54.3%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 66 F Wind-out: 9.1 mph-eq
Home SP (Blade Tidwell): 0.0137 HR/BF Away SP (Hayden Wesneski): 0.0000 HR/BF
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

20 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	71.0	64.8	81.5	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	69.2	71.6	73.0	5	Changeup (51% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	62.4	40.9	86.5	6	Slider (21% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	60.6	62.3	62.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	59.9	56.7	65.5	5	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros	59.1	51.6	66.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	56.3	47.4	62.0	5	Slider (28% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	55.5	56.7	57.0	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	55.3	56.6	56.0	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	54.5	54.3	54.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	53.8	49.8	58.5	6	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	52.4	49.1	58.5	6	Sweeper (40% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	51.5	45.9	57.5	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	49.7	46.9	54.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	48.9	48.6	53.0	6	Slurve (33% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	48.8	52.7	46.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	48.1	51.6	43.5	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	42.7	47.6	34.5	7	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	42.0	56.3	27.5	5	Cutter (44% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	37.7	54.1	22.0	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

20 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	R	23.1%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	24.4%	4.1	4.4	4.4	69	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	R	19.2%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	L	22.4%	6.2	5.5	5.7	104	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	21.0%	6.0	5.7	5.8	101	deep	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.4%	5.2	5.3	5.5	87	normal	full	86.50	13.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	R	19.9%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	23.4%	7.0	5.6	6.0	117	deep	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	L	30.2%	4.8	5.6	5.5	80	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	L	30.8%	6.3	6.0	6.1	106	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	R	29.6%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	81.50	18.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	R	21.4%	4.8	5.1	5.2	80	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	R	29.1%	4.9	4.7	4.7	82	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.0%	4.2	4.6	4.5	70	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	21.1%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros	R	20.1%	2.2	5.0	5.0	37	short	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.2 IP/start
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.9%	5.3	5.2	5.4	89	normal	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	21.9%	4.1	5.1	4.9	69	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	25.5%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	21.5%	3.8	5.0	4.8	64	short	full	22.00	78.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.5	3.0	16.4%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Pitcher outs assessment research gate: expected innings 6.1 below Over need 6.3 -- B risk note
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	117	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Elder	Bryce Elder Under	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Under	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	17.5	-0.0	0.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

146 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Jordan Walker	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.84	1.18	0.70	0.97	2.79 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Alec Burleson	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.70	1.16	0.63	0.91	2.56 / Over	0.30	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Drake Baldwin	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.63	1.15	0.83	0.64	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.60	1.09	0.78	0.73	2.27 / Over	0.30	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.60	1.21	0.70	0.69	2.14 / Over	0.30	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ivan Herrera	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.51	1.34	0.64	0.53	2.21 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.48	1.00	0.81	0.67	2.10 / Over	0.30	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.45	1.03	0.75	0.68	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
JJ Wetherholt	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.45	1.09	0.89	0.47	2.20 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.44	1.32	0.58	0.54	2.18 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.42	0.94	0.71	0.77	2.04 / Over	0.30	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.42	0.98	0.67	0.76	2.17 / Over	0.30	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.40	1.14	0.56	0.70	2.44 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.39	1.05	0.56	0.78	2.41 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.35	1.05	0.56	0.73	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.33	1.07	0.59	0.68	2.49 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.33	1.34	0.49	0.49	2.39 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Bo Bichette	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.26	1.11	0.54	0.62	2.11 / Over	0.30	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ozzie Albies	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.25	1.00	0.64	0.61	2.10 / Over	0.30	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Shohei Ohtani	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.23	1.09	0.57	0.56	2.52 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.22	1.11	0.48	0.63	2.00 / Over	0.30	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Josh Bell	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.19	0.94	0.55	0.69	1.98 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	1.01	0.73	0.43	1.97 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.17	1.11	0.59	0.47	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=84,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.16	1.01	0.59	0.56	1.91 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes