MLB Bets 2026-08-10

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	958W–474L–0P	67%	-64.97 u	Last 14 days • 1432 settled
Grade A	24W–25L–0P	49%	-7.49 u
Grade B	932W–444L–0P	68%	-55.04 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3406W–2148L–8P	61%	-218.32 u	All-time • 5562 settled
Grade A	254W–198L–0P	56%	-7.84 u
Grade B	3150W–1945L–8P	62%	-208.04 u

77 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Brandon Marsh	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Caleb Durbin	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Chandler Simpson	0.5	-425	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-265	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jarren Duran	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-475	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-575	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Mike Trout	0.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-310	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski	3.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	K Prop	Noah Cameron	4.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Blade Tidwell	2.5	-128	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Gabriel Hughes	2.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Hayden Wesneski	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Jameson Taillon	2.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael Soroka	1.5	-129	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Reid Detmers	2.5	-153	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Earned Run	Sonny Gray	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jacob Lopez	5.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-10	Pitcher Outs	Tarik Skubal	18.5	-120	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-09	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-121	-	LOSS	-1.000	Final: Chicago Cubs 10, Kansas City Roya
2026-08-09	K Prop	Troy Melton	4.5	-162	-	WIN	+0.617	Troy Melton: 5.0 (line 4.5)
2026-08-09	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	8.5	-134	-	WIN	+0.746	Jacob Misiorowski: 9.0 (line 8.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	537	55%	-19.68u	67	46%	-13.62u	253	57%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	478	58%	+13.94u	63	60%	+2.91u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	165	58%	+6.39u	19	79%	+6.91u	45	62%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1818	74%	-41.65u	847	73%	-38.10u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	548	56%	-25.64u	116	53%	-11.44u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	407	60%	-11.02u	85	62%	+0.91u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	10	40%	-4.45u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	29	46%	+3.54u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	5	20%	-2.00u	2	0%	-2.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	5
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	120	48%	-11.65u	10	70%	+2.02u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	60	40%	-11.07u	6	33%	-2.28u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	31	52%	-3.07u	22	50%	-2.70u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	590	52%	-56.75u	66	53%	-5.65u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; 14d P&L non-negative
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 20 total candidate(s); season N 537, 14d N 67	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 1 actionable / 7 total candidate(s); season N 478, 14d N 63	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 165, 14d N 19	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 20 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 20/20 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 17 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 10	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 183 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 29, 14d N 1	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 5 total candidate(s); season N 120, 14d N 10	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 2 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s); season N 60, 14d N 6	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 31, 14d N 22	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 129 total candidate(s); season N 590, 14d N 66	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 129 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 789 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 766 pitcher(s), 3386 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 579 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 20 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 20 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Lineups not yet posted — using team tendencies & season stats (re-run after 4 PM for lineup refresh)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 20 roster team(s), 260 hitter(s) \| 20 SP matchup(s), 900 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Batter handedness: 260 active-roster player(s) available pre-lineup; lineup order refreshes when posted
◴	LATE DATA	Non-blocking	Umpires not yet assigned — umpire K-rate adjustments skipped
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 20 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 20 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 0 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 20 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 338 pitcher(s)
ℹ	PARTIAL	Review coverage	Pitching prop coverage: PARTIAL -- 10/10 game(s) with pitching props \| K 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Outs 20 line(s)/10 game(s); Hits Allowed 19 line(s)/10 game(s); Walks 0 line(s)/0 game(s); Earned Runs 19 line(s)/10 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 76, fanatics 2
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 2000 market side(s) checked \| 2000 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 10 game(s) fetched \| 10 with ML odds \| 10 with total odds \| 2 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 129 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 10 game(s) scored \| 1 above probability threshold \| 0 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 625 \| batter bats 311 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 60 \| batter pitch-type 579 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 177 batter(s) scored \| 10 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	-179	+148	-1.5 (+105)	1.5 (-126)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+129	-156	1.5 (-163)	-1.5 (+135)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	-112	-108	-1.5 (+144)	1.5 (-175)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-107	-113	-1.5 (+149)	1.5 (-181)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-121	+101	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-167)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	+149	-181	1.5 (-142)	-1.5 (+118)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-157	+130	-1.5 (+100)	1.5 (-120)	O/U 10.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	-112	-107	-1.5 (+154)	1.5 (-188)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-162	+134	-1.5 (+104)	1.5 (-126)	O/U 8.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	+258	-328	1.5 (+120)	-1.5 (-144)	O/U 7.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

1 Grade A | 23 Grade B | 693 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	✅ Best Signal K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158, active roster BVP K% 6.7% over 15 PA, expected IP 5.5 below A-grad…	K Prop	Hayden Wesneski Over	AST@GIA	9:46 PM	3.5	4.7	-158	FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 \| best price	33.8%	✓✓✓✓––	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (39 play(s))

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -140Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exactOwn-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

Batter Total Bases - Elias Diaz Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Kody Clemens Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Brice Turang Over

Projection: 1.6Displayed: Over 0.5 -180Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 1.17Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exactOwn-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Ryan Waldschmidt Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Osleivis Basabe Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jake Bauers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jac Caglianone Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Henry Bolte Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Carson Williams Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Taylor Walls Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Victor Caratini Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Dylan Beavers Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Leody Taveras Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andrew Vaughn Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ty France Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Justin Foscue Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Wade Meckler Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jose Siri Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jose Fermin Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Nathan Church Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Jimmy Crooks Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Justin Crawford Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Willi Castro Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Andruw Monasterio Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal K Prop — Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 (-158) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-160	+120	-
DK	3.5	-158	+123	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-156	+122	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	3.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓✓–– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 33.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.18K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hayden Wesneski: K/9 7.6, proj 4.7K over 5.5 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/2 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.7% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Cutter (44% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Francisco Giants whiff% vs Cutter: 19.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 18% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 15 PA | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 2/2 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -158, active roster BVP K% 6.7% over 15 PA, expected IP 5.5 below A-grade leash -- A-grade risk note

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (23 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Noah Cameron Over 4.5 (-165) diff 26.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 4.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.8% / Under 41.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 58.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 4.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-149	+115	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	-
DK	4.5	-165	+129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-146	+114	-
Fanatics	4.5	-145	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓!–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 5.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 26.5% vs 17% min; cushion +1.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 58.8% / under 41.2%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Noah Cameron: K/9 8.5, proj 5.7K over 6.1 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.6% | put-away% 17.9% | xwOBA 0.323 | top pitch: Changeup (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 20 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/22 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +4.0 ppts (recent 26.0% vs season 22.0%, proj adj +2.0%)

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.05) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: opposing lineup not confirmed, juiced K over -165, active roster BVP K% 15.0% over 20 PA -- retained at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-165); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 (-120) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 18.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.9% / Under 49.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 18.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	18.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	18.5	-135	+102	-
DK	18.5	-120	-111	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 21.542 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 16.4% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.8 IP (xFIP 2.63 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.9 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.9% / under 49.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market OVER 50.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 106)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.8 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 106
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.3%, split 5.3%, L7 7.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.2%/125 PA (adj 0.85x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.3 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/17 (35%) | Season 6/17 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.80 | Season Avg 18.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 over 18.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Pitcher outs assessment research gate: expected innings 6.1 below Over need 6.3 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 (-159) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -159 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 4.2 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 12.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.7% / under 57.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 16.6%, L7 15.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Hayden Wesneski Over 1.5 (-173) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -173

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-173	+130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-170	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 86.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.57 over 5.3 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 4.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.3 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/2 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.3% / under 40.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Hayden Wesneski: 15 PA | K% 6.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .286 | OPS .905
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 20.8%, L7 24.3%, season 21.1%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/2 (100%) | L10 2/2 (100%) | L20 2/2 (100%) | Season 2/2 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/2 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-173); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Sonny Gray Over 1.5 (-167) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.26 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 3.59, ERA 2.96)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.5% / under 41.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/21 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-167) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Christian Scott Under 2.5 (-135) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -135

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.41 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.78, ERA 3.00)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 62 PA | K% 33.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .562
Opponent K profile: composite 23.9%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, BVP 33.9%/62 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/16 (69%) | Season 11/16 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Blade Tidwell Under 2.5 (-128) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -128

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -128 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.80 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.23, ERA 3.78)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 47.5% / under 52.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.2%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/9 (100%) | L20 9/9 (100%) | Season 9/9 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.67 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 9/9 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Soroka Over 1.5 (-129) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.9 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.32 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.60, ERA 2.93)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 52.6% / under 47.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Soroka: 75 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .232 | OPS .628
Opponent K profile: composite 21.6%, split 22.2%, L7 19.0%, season 22.7%, BVP 22.7%/75 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/15 (40%) | Season 6/15 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 1.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Reid Detmers Under 2.5 (-153) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -153 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.58 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.58, ERA 4.11)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 89 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .743
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 36.0%/89 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Heavy juice (-153); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Gabriel Hughes Under 2.5 (-119) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -119 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.04, ERA 4.47)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.2% / under 50.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 17.8%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.33 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/6 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 (-107) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 3.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.03 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.75, ERA 6.67)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.3% / under 51.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 62 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 3.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

▸ Batter Walks — 12 play(s) (B 12)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (-120) diff 84.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -120 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.80
Base projection 0.80 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/99 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.80
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 over 0.5 (57%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Walks: 54/99 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.80

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-575) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -575

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -575 | exact

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15

⚠ Heavy juice (-575); break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-475) diff 66.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/108 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/48 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 91/108 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-475); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-450) diff 62.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/104 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 81/104 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-450) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-265) diff 59.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.74x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/109 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/109 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28

⚠ Heavy juice (-265); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-310) diff 59.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-310); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-330) diff 56.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.22
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/114 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 92/114 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.22

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-330) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-280) diff 56.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.67x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP walk adjustment: 0.86x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/114 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 39/60 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 80/114 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-280) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-550) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-550) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-425) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/110 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 79/110 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-310) diff 52.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 86/110 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 86/110 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-310) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-425) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/110 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/110 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-425) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (693 signal(s))

▸ K Prop — 18 play(s) (B 4 | C 14)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Gabriel Hughes Over 3.5 (-145) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-152	+116	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-145	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-148	+116	-
Fanatics	3.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.9K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 12.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.43K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.9% / under 44.1%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Gabriel Hughes: K/9 8.8, proj 3.9K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 20.0% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.242 | top pitch: Slider (21% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs Slider: 26.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Gabriel Hughes: 4 PA | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.5%, split 17.8%, L7 19.7%, season 19.3%, active roster 17.3%/6 hitters (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 17.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.3% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/6 (67%) | L20 4/6 (67%) | Season 4/6 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.67 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/6 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 (-158) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+119	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	4.5	-160	+120	-
DK	4.5	-158	+123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.47K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.7% / under 42.3%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Trevor Rogers: K/9 8.3, proj 5.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.5% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.300 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Sweeper: 30.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 13% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .297 | OPS .732
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 42 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
K% trend: support +6.2 ppts (recent 26.4% vs season 20.2%, proj adj +3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 (-151) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 7.7 | selected line 7.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 7.5 at 4 books | 8.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 7.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 8.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	7.5	-156	+121	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-160	+120	-
DK	7.5	-151	+119	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	7.5	-156	+122	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+110	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 8.0K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 7.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.53K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.8% / under 43.2%); own-line consensus 3/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta -0.25
Tarik Skubal: K/9 10.8, proj 8.0K over 6.2 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 24.4% | xwOBA 0.269 | top pitch: Changeup (51% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Changeup: 25.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 125 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 20.7%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, active roster 21.6%/6 hitters, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Kansas City Royals 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.0%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 82%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 14.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.6% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/17 (41%) | Season 7/17 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 7.70 | Season Avg 7.18
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 7.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Sonny Gray Over 4.5 (-134) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -134

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-128	-101	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-134	+105	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	-
theScore Bet	4.5	-130	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 1.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.06K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.0% / under 46.0%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Sonny Gray: K/9 7.7, proj 4.6K over 5.8 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.8% | put-away% 19.8% | xwOBA 0.298 | top pitch: Sweeper (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .835
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 135 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, active roster 19.4%/6 hitters, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Toronto Blue Jays 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 19.5%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 23.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Hunter Dobbins Over 3.5 (+134) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 3.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+132	-172	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	-
DK	3.5	+134	-171	SelectedRaw BestVerify
FanDuel	3.5	+134	-172	Recommended
theScore Bet	3.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 28.6% vs 17% min; cushion +1.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 40.4% / under 59.6%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Hunter Dobbins: K/9 8.0, proj 4.5K over 5.2 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.4% | put-away% 19.3% | xwOBA 0.297 | top pitch: Split-Finger (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Split-Finger: 34.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.0%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0%, active roster 20.7%/8 hitters (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.4%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 13.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.7% (8 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/8 (100%) | L20 8/8 (100%) | Season 8/8 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 8/8 over 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 28.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 28.6% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Casey Mize Over 4.5 (-150) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.7% / Under 43.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 56.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -138 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-145	+112	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	-
DK	4.5	-150	+118	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	4.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 5.4K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 21.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.94K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.7% / under 43.3%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Casey Mize: K/9 8.0, proj 5.4K over 5.1 IP (season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 20.5% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Split-Finger (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Split-Finger: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 48 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .602
BVP K adjustment: 0.98x from 48 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.6%, L7 28.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.8%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 5.06
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
K% trend: headwind -7.3 ppts (recent 16.4% vs season 23.7%, proj adj -3.6%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 21.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 (-148) diff 17.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -148

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+109	-141	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 3.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 17.8% vs 17% min; cushion -0.80K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Jacob Lopez: K/9 9.8, proj 3.7K over 4.4 IP (season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Slider (28% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Slider: 24.4% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .647
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 17 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.8%, split 16.6%, L7 15.1%, season 19.0%, active roster 15.8%/6 hitters, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 15.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/18 (56%) | Season 10/18 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 3.89
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 4.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
K% trend: support +11.5 ppts (recent 31.8% vs season 20.3%, proj adj +5.8%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 17.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 clears, but raw gap -0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Henderson Over 5.5 (+113) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +113

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+113	-144	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.3% / under 55.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Logan Henderson: K/9 10.4, proj 6.3K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.7% | put-away% 23.8% | xwOBA 0.252 | top pitch: Changeup (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 30.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .929
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.0%, L7 16.4%, season 21.9% (adj 0.94x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.20
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Christian Scott Over 5.5 (-101) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 5.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-135	-
DK	5.5	-101	-127	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+106	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.83K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.3% / under 52.7%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Christian Scott: K/9 11.2, proj 6.3K over 4.9 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.1% | put-away% 20.9% | xwOBA 0.301 | top pitch: Sweeper (32% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 23% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Christian Scott: 62 PA | K% 33.9% | BB% 9.7% | AVG .179 | OPS .562
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 23.5%, split 22.1%, L7 24.5%, season 21.5%, active roster 21.2%/7 hitters, BVP 33.9%/62 PA (adj 1.02x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 5/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 4/6; weighted K% 21.9%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 87%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 21.2% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/16 (62%) | Season 10/16 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 5.75
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Soroka Over 4.5 (-103) diff 14.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 14.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.63K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Michael Soroka: K/9 8.2, proj 5.1K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.4% | put-away% 20.0% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Slurve (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Slurve: 34.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Michael Soroka: 75 PA | K% 22.7% | BB% 4.0% | AVG .232 | OPS .628
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 75 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.2%, L7 19.0%, season 22.7%, active roster 22.0%/7 hitters, BVP 22.7%/75 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 21.6%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 19.0% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 22.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.27
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Reid Detmers Over 6.5 (-156) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 6.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 6.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	-161	+123	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-165	+125	-
DK	6.5	-156	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	-162	+126	-
theScore Bet	6.5	-160	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.4K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 13.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.85K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.5% / under 42.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Reid Detmers: K/9 11.1, proj 7.4K over 5.3 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.7 outs/5.6 IP (5 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.2% | put-away% 20.2% | xwOBA 0.291 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Reid Detmers: 89 PA | K% 36.0% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .200 | OPS .743
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 89 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 24.1%, split 21.3%, L7 24.3%, season 22.8%, BVP 36.0%/89 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.20 | Season Avg 6.52
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
K% trend: support +5.4 ppts (recent 33.7% vs season 28.3%, proj adj +2.7%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 122 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 (+110) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 4.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	-165	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	4.5	+112	-145	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	4.5	+110	-145	-
DK	4.5	+110	-140	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+112	-142	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 10.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.48K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 44.9% / under 55.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jameson Taillon: K/9 8.7, proj 5.0K over 4.7 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.0% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.371 | top pitch: Sweeper (33% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Sweeper: 33.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 62 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .542
BVP K adjustment: 1.02x from 62 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/16 (38%) | Season 6/16 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Andrew Painter Over 3.5 (+120) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 3.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 3.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	+126	-164	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+125	-165	-
DK	3.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+128	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	+125	-165	-
theScore Bet	3.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.23K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Andrew Painter: K/9 7.9, proj 3.7K over 4.5 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 23.6% | put-away% 16.8% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.2%, split 19.3%, L7 18.3%, season 20.3%, active roster 18.8%/6 hitters (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; St. Louis Cardinals 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.2%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 18.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 18.8% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/16 (50%) | Season 8/16 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.94
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 (-137) diff 4.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-127	-102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	Raw BestVerify
DK	4.5	-137	+107	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-115	-111	Recommended
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.7K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 4.1% vs 17% min; cushion +0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.5% / under 45.5%); own-line consensus 4/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Freddy Peralta: K/9 9.5, proj 4.7K over 4.8 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 17.3% | xwOBA 0.307 | top pitch: Curveball (36% whiff, 0% usage)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .644
BVP K adjustment: 0.94x from 46 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.20 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.1% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Dean Kremer Under 5.5 (-134) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	-
DK	5.5	+105	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	5.5	+110	-140	-
theScore Bet	5.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.3K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 3.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.19K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.0% / under 54.0%); own-line consensus 0/4 OVER (4 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Dean Kremer: K/9 8.2, proj 5.3K over 5.0 IP (season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books))
Savant: whiff% 25.3% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.328 | top pitch: Split-Finger (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Split-Finger: 26.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .150 | OPS .377
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 22 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.1%, L7 26.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.00
Prop trend: K L10: 6/8 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (+107) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 4.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 4.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	+103	-133	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	+100	-130	-
DK	4.5	+107	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	4.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.10K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.5% / under 54.5%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Bryce Elder: K/9 7.2, proj 4.6K over 5.7 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 21.2% | xwOBA 0.306 | top pitch: Slider (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 61 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .339 | OPS 1.002
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 61 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, active roster 20.4%/6 hitters, BVP 11.5%/61 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 20.1%; Roster Estimate; medium data quality; split coverage 65%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.5% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 20.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.30 | Season Avg 4.73
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Blade Tidwell Under 3.5 (-105) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -105

Selected market: Over 51.8% / Under 48.2%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 51.8%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-120	-110	-
DK	3.5	-122	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	3.5	-118	-108	-
Fanatics	3.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	3.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.4K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 1.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.05K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 51.8% / under 48.2%); own-line consensus 5/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Blade Tidwell: K/9 7.6, proj 3.4K over 3.6 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 2.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 15.5% | xwOBA 0.282 | top pitch: Sweeper (35% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Houston Astros whiff% vs Sweeper: 36.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 20.2%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5%, active roster 19.0%/7 hitters (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Houston Astros 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.3%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 85%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 17.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 19.0% (7 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 4/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/9 (100%) | L20 9/9 (100%) | Season 9/9 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.44 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: K L10: 9/9 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 (-129) diff 0.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	6.5	+106	-137	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-150	-
DK	6.5	+101	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	6.5	+116	-148	-
Fanatics	6.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	6.5	+105	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 0.1% vs 17% min; cushion -0.00K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
MacKenzie Gore: K/9 9.7, proj 6.5K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 25.9% | put-away% 21.1% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Changeup: 33.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .630
BVP K adjustment: 1.01x from 67 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.7%, L7 29.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.83
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.1% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 129 play(s) (B 1 | C 128)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-143) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -143 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.45
Base projection 2.45 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.447, xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/62 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.16 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 70/114 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.45

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, only 1 confirming book(s), raw gap 1.2 -- B risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-136) diff 64.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.9% / Under 46.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.351, xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 65/117 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/63 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 33/54 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 65/117 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-167) diff 64.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -167

Selected market: Over 58.5% / Under 41.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-167	+125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.394 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 64/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 30/53 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 64/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-136) diff 59.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.323, xSLG 0.472 (25 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 58/114 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 58/114 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elias Diaz Over 1.5 (+131) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 64/112 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-123) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/112 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 64/112 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-139) diff 57.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.4% / Under 45.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-139	+105	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.281 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.21 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 57.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-150) diff 56.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 56.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.33
Base projection 2.33 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.411, xSLG 0.550 (32 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/95 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 56/95 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 56.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-156) diff 54.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-152	+114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-156	+117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.435 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/117 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 36/62 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 63/117 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (-101) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.400, xSLG 0.551 (46 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-128) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.319, xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-138) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-138	+104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.21 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-117) diff 47.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/84 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/45 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 50/84 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 47.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-134) diff 45.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/115 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 61/115 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+103) diff 45.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.294, xSLG 0.348 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/61 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 67/112 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-161) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-161	+121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.328, xSLG 0.404 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/111 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/55 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 62/111 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-145) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/117 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/62 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 57/117 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-104) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.325, xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/108 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 54/108 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-127) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+111) diff 40.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+111	-147	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.416 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (-165) diff 37.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/114 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 65/114 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-122) diff 37.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.237, xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/103 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 54/103 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+116) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.21
Base projection 2.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.296, xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/105 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.21
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 50/105 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-148) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.317 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/113 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 51/113 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 (-124) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.189, xSLG 0.227 (28 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.17 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-144) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-144	+108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.374, xSLG 0.547 (30 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-157) diff 31.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -157 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191, xSLG 0.238 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.51 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-132) diff 30.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.2% / Under 46.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-132	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.224, xSLG 0.226 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/119 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/62 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 62/119 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+118) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.255, xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 56/100 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 9/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 56/100 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (-111) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.280 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Bell Over 1.5 (-105) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.159, xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 62/114 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.03
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 62/114 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-109) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-109	-121	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.362 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/115 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.77 | Day Batter HRR: 59/115 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-102) diff 27.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-102	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+109) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.422, xSLG 0.586 (43 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/100 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter HRR: 26/46 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 57/100 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-102) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/109 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/61 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.03 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 59/109 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-111) diff 24.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.227, xSLG 0.298 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-107) diff 23.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/110 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 52/110 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-121) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.219, xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 57/106 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 57/106 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-124) diff 22.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.424, xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-109) diff 21.7% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+112) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.310 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/116 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 58/116 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-104) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.7% / Under 52.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-104	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.342, xSLG 0.454 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/99 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 47/99 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-112) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.208 (27 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-163) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 58.0% / Under 42.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 54/90 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/44 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 54/90 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kody Clemens Over 1.5 (+107) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Base projection 1.90 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.297 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/104 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.04 | Away Batter HRR: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 46/104 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+103) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-123) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.361 (46 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/117 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 67/117 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-131) diff 17.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.358, xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/57 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-102) diff 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-102	-131	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.110, xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/110 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 57/110 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-101) diff 16.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.267, xSLG 0.289 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 52/98 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter HRR: 52/98 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-113) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.300 (35 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/115 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 54/115 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-107) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.307 (24 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/113 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 58/113 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+113) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 61/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-140) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.170, xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 68/116 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (-120) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.299, xSLG 0.388 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-151) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -151 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.407, xSLG 0.576 (69 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 60/115 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-117) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.279, xSLG 0.324 (18 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/105 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter HRR: 67/105 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Under 2.5 (-127) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -127

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-109	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-105	-127	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.21 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359, xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/117 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 35/58 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 71/117 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.26

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+116) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Over 1.5 (-101) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 44/88 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/48 over 1.5 (60%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 15/40 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter HRR: 44/88 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-113) diff 10.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.309, xSLG 0.382 (14 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 50/114 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 50/114 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/110 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter HRR: 49/110 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-117) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.3% / Under 49.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-117	-114	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.198, xSLG 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/94 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/47 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.60 | Day Batter HRR: 46/94 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (-152) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 (+102) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +102; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.248, xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter HRR: 32/55 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-135) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-125) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+103) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +103 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (+101) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.4% / Under 46.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-133	+101	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.295, xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/115 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/58 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 63/115 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Over 2.5 (+114) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.62 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.58
Base projection 2.58 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473, xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/59 over 2.5 (59%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 20/58 over 2.5 (34%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 55/117 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Under 2.5 (-125) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -121 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -121 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	2.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-106	-125	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.39 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500, xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 under 2.5 (52%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 38/56 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 67/112 under 2.5 (60%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (-119) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (-109) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-108) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+104) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Kepler Over 1.5 (+114) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 1.5 (+120) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 14 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-161) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 57.7% / Under 42.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -161 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (-109) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Over 1.5 (+113) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Trammell Over 1.5 (+130) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Walls Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-105	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (-107) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (-148) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.9% / Under 44.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-148	+112	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carlos Cortes Over 1.5 (+132) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Williams Over 1.5 (+101) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Over 1.5 (-118) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-118	-112	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Donovan Walton Over 1.5 (+133) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +133 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (-124) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-134	+100	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (-112) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (-122) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (-135) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (-115) diff 3.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+115) diff 3.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+115	-153	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (-128) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -128

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-128	-104	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (-119) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.8% / Under 49.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-119	-111	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (-107) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (-106) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-106	-126	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (-105) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+100) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+111) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Victor Caratini Over 1.5 (+114) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+116) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+119) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 15 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+126) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+121) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+122) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Under 1.5 (-125) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.257, xSLG 0.283 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/56 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 33/56 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 60/112 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Garrett Mitchell Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.203, xSLG 0.198 (11 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 49/107 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 24/49 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 49/107 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (+106) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +106 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.53 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.406, xSLG 0.599 (61 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.45
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 2.5 (51%), avg 2.61 | Day Batter HRR: 50/108 over 2.5 (46%), avg 2.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-122) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -122; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-121) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+132) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+134) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 13 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-118) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+102) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+106) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (+112) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-142) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-104) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -104 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+100) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+101) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.4% / Under 53.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+101	-135	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+104) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Over 1.5 (+119) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Connor Wong Over 1.5 (+126) diff 0.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 16 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

▸ F5 Total — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-140) edge 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5) | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 3 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 5.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-140	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

⚡ CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER)
Hunter Dobbins xFIP 4.10
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.65
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 97)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP)
Away SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ ⚠ Contradiction flags present: CONTRADICTION: Batter prop Overs (production expected) vs Total Under — conflicting offense signals — posture note at C

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Run Line — San Francisco Giants +1.5 1.5 (-126) edge 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -126

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig San Francisco Giants 1.5 -122 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.95/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 17.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hayden Wesneski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Blade Tidwell small sample (17 IP) — stats 21% actual / 79% league avg (regression applied)
Hayden Wesneski small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: selected book disagrees | split consensus 50% (8 books) — posture note at C

▸ Pitcher Outs — 4 play(s) (C 4)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sonny Gray Over 17.5 (-206) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -206

Selected market: Over 63.1% / Under 36.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-220	+155	-
Caesars	17.5	-205	+152	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	17.5	-206	+154	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-220	+158	-
Fanatics	17.5	-255	+175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 18.770999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.7 IP (season 5.7 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.59 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.1 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.1% / under 36.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.7 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.6%, split 6.5%, L7 7.7%, season 7.3%, BVP 10.4%/135 PA (adj 0.94x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 15/21 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.00 | Season Avg 17.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 9/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.90 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Trevor Rogers Over 17.5 (-141) diff 1.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -141

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 17.5 -141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	17.5	-150	+107	-
DK	17.5	-141	+106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-146	+108	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 17.790999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.21 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.7% / under 45.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .297 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.2%, split 7.7%, L7 9.2%, season 8.7%, BVP 7.1%/42 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 16.52
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +1.88 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Noah Cameron Over 17.5 (-151) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+111	-
DK	17.5	-151	+114	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 17.708 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.3 IP (recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.98 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 117, patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.3 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 117
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.6%, split 9.6%, L7 6.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 1.07x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 7.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.40 | Season Avg 16.86
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Bryce Elder Under 17.5 (+115) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	17.5	-145	+110	-
DK	17.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	17.5	-148	+110	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 17.314 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 1.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 outs (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.7 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (active roster) vs Bryce Elder: 61 PA | K% 11.5% | BB% 6.6% | AVG .339 | OPS 1.002
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.6%, L7 24.5%, season 22.7%, BVP 11.5%/61 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.8%, split 6.6%, L7 9.4%, season 8.5%, BVP 6.6%/61 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 17.27
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 4/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.87 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 6 play(s) (C 6)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Hunter Dobbins Under 5.5 (-134) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.95 over 5.0 IP (WHIP 1.31, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.75 | Season Avg 4.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/8 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 (-134) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.88 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.16, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.03x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .297 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 10/21 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.80 | Season Avg 5.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 (+108) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	+105	-145	-
DK	5.5	+108	-144	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.32 over 4.5 IP (WHIP 1.72, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.9% / under 55.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.40 | Season Avg 5.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.79 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jameson Taillon Under 5.5 (-159) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	-
DK	5.5	+120	-159	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.16 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.52, BB% 8.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.5% / under 57.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Jameson Taillon: 62 PA | K% 24.2% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .200 | OPS .542
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 22.7%, L7 18.7%, season 21.8%, BVP 24.2%/62 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 5.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sonny Gray Under 5.5 (-135) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+100	-140	-
DK	5.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.6 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 5.7 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 94)
BVP (active roster) vs Sonny Gray: 135 PA | K% 15.6% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .286 | OPS .835
Opponent K profile: composite 19.8%, split 18.8%, L7 23.8%, season 19.7%, BVP 15.6%/135 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Noah Cameron Under 5.5 (-102) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -102

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-130	-102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.2 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.81 over 5.8 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.8% / under 47.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.07x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 11 play(s) (C 11)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 (-155) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.85, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs MacKenzie Gore: 67 PA | K% 23.9% | BB% 10.4% | AVG .233 | OPS .630
Opponent K profile: composite 25.3%, split 23.7%, L7 29.0%, season 25.3%, BVP 23.9%/67 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Casey Mize Under 2.5 (-164) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -164 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.1 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.79 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.95, ERA 4.21)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.9% / under 58.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Casey Mize: 48 PA | K% 20.8% | BB% 12.5% | AVG .244 | OPS .602
Opponent K profile: composite 24.0%, split 23.6%, L7 28.8%, season 21.4%, BVP 20.8%/48 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/17 (71%) | Season 12/17 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Andrew Painter Over 2.5 (+102) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.84 over 4.3 IP (xFIP 4.65, ERA 7.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.3 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 97)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.3%, split 19.3%, L7 18.3%, season 20.3% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/16 (56%) | Season 9/16 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.3% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Hunter Dobbins Under 2.5 (-120) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
Opponent K profile: composite 18.7%, split 19.1%, L7 13.7%, season 23.0% (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Lopez Under 2.5 (-103) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -103

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -103 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.76 over 4.2 IP (xFIP 5.34, ERA 4.39)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.2 IP (HIGH; season 4.4 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.5% / under 47.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Jacob Lopez: 17 PA | K% 17.6% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .235 | OPS .647
Opponent K profile: composite 17.0%, split 16.6%, L7 15.1%, season 19.0%, BVP 17.6%/17 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/18 (61%) | Season 11/18 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.61
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Noah Cameron Over 2.5 (-155) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.05 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 4.01)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 7.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 106)
BVP (active roster) vs Noah Cameron: 20 PA | K% 15.0% | BB% 15.0% | AVG .176 | OPS .947
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, split 20.9%, L7 19.0%, season 20.5%, BVP 15.0%/20 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Henderson Over 1.5 (-144) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.89 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 3.41, ERA 3.10)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.5 outs/5.5 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 97)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Henderson: 10 PA | K% 20.0% | BB% 30.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .929
Opponent K profile: composite 20.0%, split 21.0%, L7 16.4%, season 21.9% (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 6/10 (60%) | Season 6/10 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Tarik Skubal Over 1.5 (+110) diff 6.7% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.7% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.39 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 2.63, ERA 2.63)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 6.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Tarik Skubal: 125 PA | K% 26.4% | BB% 3.2% | AVG .212 | OPS .631
Opponent K profile: composite 20.5%, split 22.2%, L7 14.2%, season 20.9%, BVP 26.4%/125 PA (adj 0.95x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/17 (53%) | Season 9/17 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.7% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Trevor Rogers Under 2.5 (-134) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -134 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.92 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.74)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.7 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (5 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 100)
BVP (active roster) vs Trevor Rogers: 42 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .297 | OPS .732
Opponent K profile: composite 20.2%, split 20.3%, L7 19.2%, season 21.4%, BVP 19.1%/42 PA (adj 0.94x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Dean Kremer Under 2.5 (-134) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+101	-134	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.09, ERA 6.09)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (4 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Dean Kremer: 22 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 9.1% | AVG .150 | OPS .377
Opponent K profile: composite 25.0%, split 24.1%, L7 26.0%, season 24.3%, BVP 27.3%/22 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.38 | Season Avg 3.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/8 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Freddy Peralta Under 2.5 (-140) Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+105	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.92 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 4.25, ERA 6.40)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.1 IP/GS; recent 4.1 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (3 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.5% / under 54.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (active roster) vs Freddy Peralta: 46 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 2.2% | AVG .295 | OPS .644
Opponent K profile: composite 22.8%, split 22.9%, L7 25.4%, season 22.9%, BVP 17.4%/46 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/23 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 3.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 17 play(s) (C 17)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-229) diff 41.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -229

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+170	-229	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jeremy Pena Under 1.5 (-225) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-228) diff 39.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -228

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -228 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+169	-228	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+180	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.302)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.289 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/41 (24%) | L5 7/19 (37%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/90 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/44 under 1.5 (73%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter Hits: 28/46 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 60/90 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 (-265) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -265

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+195	-265	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.213)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.374 (30 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 4/31 (13%) | L5 1/14 (7%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 10/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/62 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 45/55 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Hits: 94/117 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-207) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -207

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -207 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+165	-220	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.96 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.248)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.191 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 4/24 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/61 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 85/116 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-266) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -266

Selected market: Over 31.8% / Under 68.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -266 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+195	-266	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.94 (AVG 0.250)
Base projection 0.94 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.330 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/42 (29%) | L5 10/23 (44%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 93/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.94
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/62 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 93/117 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jonathan Aranda Under 1.5 (-268) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -268

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+197	-268	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.07 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.306 (58 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/44 (30%) | L5 6/22 (27%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/114 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.07
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter Hits: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 81/114 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Junior Caminero Under 1.5 (-227) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-
DK	1.5	+168	-227	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.278)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.359 (81 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 8/36 (22%) | L5 3/19 (16%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 84/117 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-256) diff 30.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.263)
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350 (74 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 14/42 (33%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/118 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/58 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Away Batter Hits: 39/60 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.18 | Day Batter Hits: 84/118 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-240) diff 30.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -217 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+178	-240	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278 (40 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 16/39 (41%) | L5 9/22 (41%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 72/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 32/53 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter Hits: 72/110 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-264) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -264

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+194	-264	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.07 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.272)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.327 (34 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/40 (32%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 50/62 under 1.5 (81%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 88/117 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-269) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 0.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-270	+199	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+198	-269	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.14 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.292)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.406 (61 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 36/59 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter Hits: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-246) diff 20.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -246 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+182	-246	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.322)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.473 (32 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 11/38 (29%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 42/58 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95 | Day Batter Hits: 77/117 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yandy Diaz Under 1.5 (-172) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -172

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.17 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.17 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.500 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/43 (28%) | L5 6/24 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.17
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 40/56 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter Hits: 76/112 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-245) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -245

Selected market: Over 33.4% / Under 66.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+181	-245	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.284)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.278 (36 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 15/46 (33%) | L5 5/25 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 79/113 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/60 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 79/113 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jung Hoo Lee Under 1.5 (-249) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -249 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+184	-249	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.298)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.319 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 10/38 (26%) | L5 3/20 (15%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 0.96 | Away Batter Hits: 40/60 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.27 | Day Batter Hits: 74/108 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Under 1.5 (-197) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -197 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
DK	1.5	+147	-197	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.29 (AVG 0.320)
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.328 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Recent form: L10 12/44 (27%) | L5 5/23 (22%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 30/55 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter Hits: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 67/111 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 143 play(s) (C 143)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-270) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 82/113 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-425) diff 48.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/61 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 88/116 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-300) diff 47.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 47.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 92/119 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/62 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 92/119 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-550) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP walk adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 43/54 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter Walks: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-400) diff 46.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 80/116 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-280) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/109 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/61 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 77/109 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-375) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 84/114 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/114 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-350) diff 45.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 45.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 77/108 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 77/108 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-310) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP walk adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-300) diff 44.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/100 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 34/51 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 72/100 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-400) diff 43.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 62/100 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-330) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 83/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-320) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-330) diff 42.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/84 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/45 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/84 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.38

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Over 0.5 (+115) diff 42.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/117 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/59 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 21/58 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 46/117 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.55

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-450) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/112 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 87/112 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-525) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-310) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-475) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-375) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-180) diff 41.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-230) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/105 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 75/105 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-270) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-280) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-450) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-200) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-310) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-375) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-400) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-320) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-225) diff 40.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-350) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-300) diff 39.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/117 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 76/117 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-400) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-170) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-270) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-330) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-310) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Torrens Under 0.5 (-525) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -525

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-320) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/110 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-245) diff 37.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/117 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 81/117 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-330) diff 36.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/114 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 83/114 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-140) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-210) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-310) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 4.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/106 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/53 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 32/53 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 68/106 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Bride Under 0.5 (-225) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-320) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-375) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-170) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-400) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-350) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-340) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -340 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-225) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-425) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-450) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (5)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-255) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 68/110 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-225) diff 35.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 78/113 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 67/94 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 37/47 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 67/94 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-330) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-350) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-320) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Fortes Under 0.5 (-450) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-155) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-170) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-310) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carson Williams Under 0.5 (-300) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-265) diff 34.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.7% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-265) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 36/57 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/115 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-115) diff 32.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.66 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.67
Base projection 0.67 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-230) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/107 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 29/49 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 66/107 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-375) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 (-330) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.9% / Under 71.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-425) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-245) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-400) diff 32.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.0% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-280) diff 31.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 80/112 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/56 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 80/112 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (-155) diff 30.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.70
Base projection 0.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/117 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.70
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 0.78 | Day Batter Walks: 60/117 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.70

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (+110) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +110

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.65 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.66
Base projection 0.66 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/119 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.66
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/62 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 59/119 over 0.5 (50%), avg 0.66

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-400) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 71/113 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-475) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-450) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-185) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-230) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-210) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-225) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kaelen Culpepper Under 0.5 (-550) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-255) diff 28.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.5% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-300) diff 28.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.8% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/117 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/63 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/117 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-310) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -310

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/117 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 84/117 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-375) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP BB% 6.4% (walk adj 0.76x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/116 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 72/116 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-240) diff 27.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-240) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 76/113 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/58 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/113 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.37

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-225) diff 26.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/56 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 32/51 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-185) diff 25.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 78/117 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 (+125) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 42/114 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/56 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 23/58 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 42/114 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Joey Ortiz Under 0.5 (-450) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.1% / Under 75.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-425) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-425) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-500) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-280) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-375) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-320) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-255) diff 25.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-180) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP BB% 7.9% (walk adj 0.93x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/112 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 34/55 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 71/112 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-320) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-375) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.34x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/118 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.32 | Day Batter Walks: 88/118 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Springer Under 0.5 (-270) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 6.6% (walk adj 0.78x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/88 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/48 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 26/40 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 56/88 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-245) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/98 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 31/47 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 69/98 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-245) diff 20.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-245) diff 20.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/108 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 29/56 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 66/108 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 (+100) diff 19.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 25/57 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 52/115 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-225) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -225

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Opp SP BB% 8.5% (walk adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/118 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 75/118 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Matt Olson Over 0.5 (+115) diff 17.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.34x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 42/118 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/59 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 42/118 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-185) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.55
Base projection 0.55 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/105 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.55
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 26/50 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 61/105 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-230) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 8.4% (walk adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 71/114 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/59 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 71/114 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-210) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/61 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 29/51 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 61/112 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-265) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 77/117 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/62 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 77/117 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-230) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 56/90 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/44 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 56/90 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+130) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/108 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.64 | Day Batter Walks: 51/108 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-195) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 39.2% / Under 60.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 66/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 (+170) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.17x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 35/95 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/50 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 16/45 over 0.5 (36%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 35/95 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+120) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.09x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/106 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 40/106 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-230) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/118 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 72/118 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-170) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/58 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.48 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 67/115 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-265) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -265 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.01x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 75/115 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 36/60 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 75/115 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-165) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/112 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-500) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-170) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -170

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 12.2% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 75/112 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 75/112 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 183 play(s) (C 168 | D 15)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 361.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 361.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/117 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 82/117 over 0.5 (70%), avg 2.27

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 361% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-165) diff 274.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.87 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 274.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.416 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/113 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 68/113 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.59

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 274% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-150) diff 266.9% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +199; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 266.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 78/112 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.77

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 267% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-180) diff 224.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/104 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 62/104 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.72

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 225% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (-180) diff 223.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+144	-193	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 223.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.348 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/61 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 34/51 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.79

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 0.5 (-150) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +204; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+204	-278	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rortvedt Over 0.5 (-120) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-130) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (+100) diff 221.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 221.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-180) diff 218.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 218.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/118 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 42/59 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 80/118 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.67

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-150) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Beck Over 0.5 (-120) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Kepler Over 0.5 (-160) diff 217.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-130) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 (-110) diff 216.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-150) diff 216.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/105 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/55 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 64/105 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.70

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 (-160) diff 215.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.72

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-160) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-130) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-130	+100	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Williams Over 0.5 (-165) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-140) diff 215.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 215.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 215% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (-140) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-130) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-110) diff 213.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 0.5 (-165) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 0.5 (-180) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-140) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (+100) diff 212.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 212% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-140) diff 210.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-130) diff 210.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-130) diff 210.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 (-185) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.9% / Under 39.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-185	+140	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis d'Arnaud Over 0.5 (-120) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-150) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (-110) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (+120) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 43.1% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Bride Over 0.5 (-115) diff 206.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-165) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-200) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-140) diff 206.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 0.5 (-180) diff 206.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 65/100 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/49 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 65/100 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.52

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-155) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-120) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (-150) diff 205.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 205.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 0.5 (-130) diff 197.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.49 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 197.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 75/113 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 197.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 197.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.99 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 197% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-155) diff 193.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 193.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.310 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/116 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 69/116 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 193.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 193.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Over 0.5 (-180) diff 139.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.27
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 64/110 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 139.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-180) diff 137.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.2% / Under 39.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-180	+135	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.283 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/56 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 70/112 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 137.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 111.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 111.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.320 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 25 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 28.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 59/113 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 111.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 111.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.56 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-130) diff 90.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.95 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.18
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (62 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 55/110 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 90.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-140) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.86 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.10
Base projection 1.10 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.231 (37 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/55 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/113 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 72.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+174) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +174

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +174 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/117 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-111) diff 53.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.2% / Under 50.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-111	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/58 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 55/117 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 53.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-115) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.599 (61 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/108 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 50/108 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (+108) diff 43.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 43.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 53/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 43.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+140) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.551 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 50/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Under 1.5 (-250) diff 38.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.00
Base projection 1.00 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.296 (40 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 12 PA | 3/11 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 8.3% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 12 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 81/108 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.00
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter TB: 81/108 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-129) diff 37.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.394 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/113 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.09 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/113 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+108) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-126) diff 35.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-123	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/117 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter TB: 55/117 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-101) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.472 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/59 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+129) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-172	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.05
Base projection 2.05 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 44/108 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 23/55 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter TB: 44/108 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+116) diff 33.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.409 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/118 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.27 | Day Batter TB: 63/118 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+105) diff 32.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/107 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/56 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/107 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.83

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (+111) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.82
Base projection 1.82 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/117 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.82
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/63 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 56/117 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.82

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-176) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -176

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 76/115 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.05 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 76/115 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-181) diff 26.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (18 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 71/105 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 71/105 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (+101) diff 23.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.317 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+116) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/48 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.67

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-136) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-132	+102	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+131) diff 22.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+123) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/84 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 15/45 over 1.5 (33%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 34/84 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (+107) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/115 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter TB: 52/115 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-104) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -104

Selected market: Over 47.6% / Under 52.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-104	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.435 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/117 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 24/62 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 50/117 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+103) diff 21.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/118 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 48/118 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-171) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 68/110 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 68/110 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+103) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.550 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 39/95 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.06 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 17/45 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 39/95 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Under 1.5 (-191) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+142	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.382 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 77/114 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 40/55 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 77/114 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-185) diff 14.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-185	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.34
Base projection 1.34 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.34
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Under 1.5 (-135) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/90 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/44 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.34 | Away Batter TB: 22/46 under 1.5 (48%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 49/90 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-103) diff 13.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-102	-127	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.547 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/117 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 41/117 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+101) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.404 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Under 1.5 (-195) diff 11.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	-
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+145	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/47 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 30/47 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 59/94 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+126) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/112 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 49/112 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+126) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/103 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.15 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 49/103 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-180) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 77/111 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-171) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-190) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+142	-190	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/109 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/61 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 63/109 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+114) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/106 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.52 | Day Batter TB: 48/106 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Under 1.5 (-190) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.307 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 69/113 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+118) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.226 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/119 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 50/119 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-200) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
Caesars	1.5	+150	-205	-
DK	1.5	+149	-200	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 57/98 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 28/47 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 57/98 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 (-158) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.37 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.361 (46 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 69/117 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 34/59 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 69/117 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+128) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/55 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 44/115 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 (-178) diff 7.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 33/55 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+114) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+124) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 (+186) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +186 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.9% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+144) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-140) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Springer Under 1.5 (-190) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 53/88 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/48 under 1.5 (52%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 28/40 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 53/88 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.586 (43 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.46 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+131) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 (+141) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +141 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+141	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+145) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+152	-209	-
DK	1.5	+145	-195	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+125) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+104) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (+114) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/117 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 42/117 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 (+124) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 1.5 (+133) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonny Deluca Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +126 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 (+144) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Vilade Over 1.5 (+123) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 1.5 (+142) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +142

Selected market: Over 38.6% / Under 61.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+142	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Fortes Over 1.5 (+145) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+136) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.362 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/115 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 45/115 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+139) diff 5.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.498 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/113 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 22/56 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 41/113 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 1.5 (+109) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+131) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+136) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+140) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+140	-188	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Martin Over 1.5 (+146) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kaelen Culpepper Over 1.5 (+199) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +199

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 (+112) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+135) diff 3.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+135	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 42/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+111) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.63
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/114 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.63
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/58 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.48 | Day Batter TB: 48/114 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.63

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-190) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 0.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 UNDER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/116 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 67/116 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+100) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +104 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.238 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/116 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/61 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.90 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 43/116 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.66

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+117) diff 2.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+143) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+140	-185	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 (+154) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +154

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+154	-207	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 (+145) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-200	+160	-
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (+125) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.227 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 71/110 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 71/110 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Under 1.5 (-192) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+143	-192	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.300 (35 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/57 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.69

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Under 1.5 (-183) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -183

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/114 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 37/60 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 70/114 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Under 1.5 (-166) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 71/113 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Under 1.5 (-160) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.86 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/57 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 60/113 under 1.5 (53%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (+118) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 40/118 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/58 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 23/60 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter TB: 40/118 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+143) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +143

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.61
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.298 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/114 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.61
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.61 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/61 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/114 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.61

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Under 1.5 (-129) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.576 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/58 under 1.5 (55%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 35/57 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.75

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Under 1.5 (-165) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 63/99 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/48 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.94 | Day Batter TB: 63/99 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-165) diff 199.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/119 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/62 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 80/119 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 199% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-190) diff 189.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 189.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 189.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 0.5 (-190) diff 173.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 173.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 69/109 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 173.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.87 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 173% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 (-160) diff 170.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 58.1% / Under 41.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 170.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 68/116 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 170.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 170% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Carter Jensen Over 0.5 (-110) diff 161.9% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 161.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 64/110 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 64/110 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 161.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 162% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (-165) diff 153.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 64/116 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 31/58 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 64/116 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Over 0.5 (-165) diff 153.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 153.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.309 (53 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 42 PA | 12/42 | HR 4 | K% 30.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 42 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 67/110 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Away Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 67/110 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 153.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 153% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-150) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.08 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.73 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Over 0.5 (-190) diff 137.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 137.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.15
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 69/110 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/58 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 32/52 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 69/110 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 137.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.69 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-165) diff 131.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 131.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (75 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/100 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 28/51 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.41 | Day Batter TB: 52/100 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 131.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.66 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-190) diff 126.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 62.1% / Under 37.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-190	+150	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 126.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.21
Base projection 1.21 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.21
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 43/55 over 0.5 (78%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter TB: 73/110 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 126.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-140) diff 125.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 125.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.198 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/58 over 0.5 (48%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 56/107 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 125.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-180) diff 119.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -180

Selected market: Over 60.7% / Under 39.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -180 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-180	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.7%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-150) diff 117.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 117.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Day Batter TB: 56/109 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 117.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.59 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Isaac Collins Over 0.5 (-110) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.244 (51 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 63/106 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 28/53 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 63/106 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 94.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ No HR — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — No HR (Game) 0.5 (-110) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 0.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.440 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.59)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.99x (base lambda 1.448)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blade Tidwell pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.308, HH% 42.9, mix ST/FF, n=282)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.94, expected pen 4.0 IP)
Houston Astros bullpen HR 1.01x (vulnerability 1.09, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 23.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 57.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Blade Tidwell): 0.0137 HR/BF Away SP (Hayden Wesneski): 0.0000 HR/BF
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

C Lean Signal - Derisked 🔬 MODEL SIGNAL ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked No HR — Under 1.5 HR (Game) 1.5 (-110) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: DraftKings 1.5 -110

Signal Breakdown: ✓––––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.440 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.59)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.99x (base lambda 1.448)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blade Tidwell pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.308, HH% 42.9, mix ST/FF, n=282)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.94, expected pen 4.0 IP)
Houston Astros bullpen HR 1.01x (vulnerability 1.09, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 23.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 57.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Blade Tidwell): 0.0137 HR/BF Away SP (Hayden Wesneski): 0.0000 HR/BF
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Kansas City Royals (+255) edge 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +255 | exact

Displayed bet: N/A +255

Own-line consensus: 4 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +255 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Tarik Skubal xFIP 2.63
Noah Cameron xFIP 3.98
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

▸ Batter HR — 177 play(s) (C 177)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-10000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -10000

Selected market: Over 6.3% / Under 93.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 93.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -10000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.292 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 110/110 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 53/53 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 110/110 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jesus Sanchez Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Lukes Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.8% / Under 84.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vaughn Grissom Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Bride Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis d'Arnaud Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jorge Polanco Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Campusano Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Yelich Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Martin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonny Deluca Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Williams Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Vilade Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Cortes Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 86.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Donovan Walton Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Beck Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Kepler Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 9.3% / Under 90.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0364
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.128 (14 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 106/110 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 106/110 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 91.4% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0450
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.404 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/111 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/111 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Collins Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 90.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 90.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0566
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.244 (51 PA, adj 0.94x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/106 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/53 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Day Batter HR: 100/106 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 89.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0545
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.257 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 104/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0636
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 15 PA | 3/13 | HR 1 | K% 13.3% | BB% 13.3% | OPS .795
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 15 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 103/110 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 103/110 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 87.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0796
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.231 (37 PA, adj 0.92x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 104/113 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/113 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (59 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/58 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Garrett Mitchell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.198 (11 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 99/107 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 99/107 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 86.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0708
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.320 (29 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 25 PA | 6/24 | HR 1 | K% 28.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .698
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/113 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 106/113 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 86.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0708
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.307 (24 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/113 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/113 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0762
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.324 (18 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/105 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/50 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/105 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.4% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.289 (45 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/98 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 91/98 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.8% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0776
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 85.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0889
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.356 (61 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/90 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 82/90 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0818
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.311 (58 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/110 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/110 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-750) diff 84.3% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.361 (46 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 107/117 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/117 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.393 (63 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 4 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/109 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 101/109 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 83.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0741
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.393 (30 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/108 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 101/108 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0893
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.375 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 40.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 102/112 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 102/112 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.347 (10 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/109 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 98/109 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 81.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0932
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/118 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 57/60 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 109/118 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0991
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/111 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/111 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 79.0% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1193
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 23 PA | 2/23 | HR 1 | K% 43.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .304
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 23 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.3% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.382 (14 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/114 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 102/114 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.227 (28 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 9 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .778
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/110 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/110 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 78.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1130
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.362 (60 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 6 PA | 1/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/115 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/115 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.81x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (62 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 97/110 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/110 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.8% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.263 (41 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.325 (51 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 7 PA | 0/5 | HR 0 | K% 57.1% | BB% 28.6% | OPS .286 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1262
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.297 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/103 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 48/52 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 92/103 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 77.3% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 6 PA | 2/5 | HR 1 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.498 (51 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 76.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1176
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 106/119 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/62 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 106/119 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.4% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.586 (43 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 34 PA | 4/33 | HR 0 | K% 20.6% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .268
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-650) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.576 (69 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/115 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 100/115 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1383
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.265 (47 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 82/94 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 43/47 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 82/94 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 76.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1111
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.405 (12 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 105/117 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/117 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.388 (27 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1518
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.283 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 96/112 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 96/112 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.414 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1400
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.306 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (75 PA, adj 0.92x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Bryce Elder contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Bryce Elder: 7 PA | 1/7 | HR 1 | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .714 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 86/100 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 86/100 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.130 (24 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 18 PA | 7/17 | HR 0 | K% 22.2% | BB% 5.6% | OPS .974
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 18 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Springer Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 74.6% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1364
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 34 PA | 9/29 | HR 2 | K% 5.9% | BB% 14.7% | OPS .964
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 34 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/88 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 33/40 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 76/88 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.5% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.309 (53 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 42 PA | 12/42 | HR 4 | K% 30.9% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .929
BVP production adjustment: 1.02x from 42 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carter Jensen Under 0.5 (-3000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3000

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.399 (41 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Tarik Skubal: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 75.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.348 (30 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 7 PA | 2/4 | HR 0 | K% 14.3% | BB% 42.9% | OPS 1.214 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/61 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.360 (44 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.100
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 88/100 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 88/100 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1415
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.378 (46 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/106 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 92/106 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.298 (22 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-800) diff 73.3% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1304
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1466
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.238 (15 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/61 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-650) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.656 (70 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1455
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.208 (27 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 14 PA | 0/14 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.5% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.208 (17 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 12.3% / Under 87.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 87.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.242 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.89x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.490 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Gabriel Hughes contact suppression 86, HR vulnerability 14 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Gabriel Hughes: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/113 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/113 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-800) diff 69.9% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.394 (36 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1610
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.275 (39 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 2/7 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.089
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 100/118 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 100/118 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-700) diff 67.6% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1983
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.252 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.91x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Logan Henderson contact suppression 82, HR vulnerability 18 (adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Logan Henderson: 2 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS .500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/116 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 95/116 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-500) diff 67.2% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Reid Detmers contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Reid Detmers: 10 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .856
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-450) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.435 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 54/62 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.6% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1818
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.269 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.484 (58 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Tarik Skubal contact suppression 73, HR vulnerability 27 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 94/110 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 94/110 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-800) diff 66.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1913
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.300 (35 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-600) diff 66.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1538
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.547 (30 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 29% usage
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-700) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1739
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.280 (66 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 9 PA | 2/7 | HR 0 | K% 44.4% | BB% 22.2% | OPS 1.016
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 96/115 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 96/115 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-650) diff 65.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1792
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.307 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.294 (25 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 15% usage
Pitcher assessment: Freddy Peralta contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Freddy Peralta: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 89/106 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 89/106 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-750) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.399 (22 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/117 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/63 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 100/117 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-600) diff 63.8% Bet on DK

Game: Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels | Start: 9:38 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1919
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.454 (37 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: MacKenzie Gore contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs MacKenzie Gore: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 81/99 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter HR: 81/99 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.300 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.297 (23 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Trevor Rogers contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Trevor Rogers: 2 PA | 1/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 50.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/104 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 86/104 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.413 (13 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/105 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/105 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.5% Bet on DK

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2024
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Casey Mize contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Casey Mize: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/84 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/45 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 69/84 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.5% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2069
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.298 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.310 (45 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Sonny Gray contact suppression 58, HR vulnerability 42 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Sonny Gray: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .833 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 93/116 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1786
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.538 (55 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 4/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.375
BVP production adjustment: 1.08x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.1% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2101
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.226 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/119 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/62 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 95/119 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1681
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.416 (39 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 8 PA | 3/8 | HR 1 | K% 12.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.250
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/113 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 95/113 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-425) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.472 (25 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 97/114 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/114 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-650) diff 57.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2105
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.550 (32 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 76/95 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 37/45 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 76/95 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 56.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins | Start: 7:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2119
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.328 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: Split-Finger sample thin (8 PA)
Pitcher assessment: Dean Kremer contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Dean Kremer: 5 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .200 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 94/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 19.1% / Under 80.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2018
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.641 (10 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 13% usage
Pitcher assessment: Andrew Painter contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 91/114 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 91/114 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays | Start: 7:07 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2150
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.371 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.281 (31 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jameson Taillon contact suppression 22, HR vulnerability 78 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Jameson Taillon: 25 PA | 5/24 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 4.0% | OPS .573
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 25 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 85/107 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 85/107 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 53.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2034
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.551 (46 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 18% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hayden Wesneski contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Hayden Wesneski: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 96/118 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/118 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-300) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Start: 10:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2321
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.323 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.599 (61 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Noah Cameron contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Noah Cameron: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 4.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 83/108 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-500) diff 46.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2881
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.301 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.409 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 23% usage
Pitcher assessment: Christian Scott contact suppression 57, HR vulnerability 43 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Christian Scott: 8 PA | 1/7 | HR 0 | K% 62.5% | BB% 12.5% | OPS .393
BVP production adjustment: 0.96x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 87/118 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter HR: 87/118 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-300) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics | Start: 9:41 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2821
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.291 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.501 (81 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Lopez contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jacob Lopez: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-400) diff 41.7% Bet on DK

Game: Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 7:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3097
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.297 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.97x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.317 (17 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Hunter Dobbins contact suppression 59, HR vulnerability 41 (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 84/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.290/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves | Start: 7:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2991
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-425) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 9:46 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 25.6% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2991
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.282 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.671 (32 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Blade Tidwell contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-600) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 9:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 21.7% / Under 78.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3148
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slurve xSLG 0.498 (66 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Soroka contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Michael Soroka: 10 PA | 1/9 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 10.0% | OPS .311
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: not yet confirmed
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/108 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter HR: 82/108 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.310/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

1 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Run Line	San Francisco Giants +1.5	DK	-126	53.2%	70.8%	+17.6%	$+26.95	8	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (1 play(s))

B San Francisco Giants +1.5 — Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants (Run Line) +17.6%

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Spencer Bivens (San Francisco Giants) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+26.95/$100
✓ Cover prob 70.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 17.6% ≥ 5%
- Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -126 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Blade Tidwell (RHP) | opp wRC+ 110 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Hayden Wesneski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 112 vs RHP (neutral)
Oracle Park (EXTREME PITCHER, run factor 0.92)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 108 blended 35% (team 102)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.8
Full game weights: starter 54%, bullpen 46%, offense factor 1.02
Full game environment: park 0.95, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Blade Tidwell small sample (17 IP) — stats 21% actual / 79% league avg (regression applied)
Hayden Wesneski small sample (11 IP) — stats 13% actual / 87% league avg (regression applied)

F5 BETS — DETAIL

2 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5)	10:10 PM	F5 ML	Kansas City Royals	FanDuel	+255	26.7%	40.6%	+13.8%	$+43.95	4	Bet on DK
B	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5)	7:46 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-140	54.8%	63.9%	+9.1%	$+9.58	3	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (2 play(s))

C Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (F5) (F5 ML) +13.8%

[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Dodger Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Tarik Skubal xFIP 2.63
Noah Cameron xFIP 3.98
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 119 blended 50% (team 106)
Kansas City Royals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 105 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.1
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 1.00, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Tarik Skubal (LHP)
Away SP: Noah Cameron (LHP)

B Under 5.5 — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (F5) (F5 Total) +9.1%

[INJ] Brian Keller (Philadelphia Phillies) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Ryan Fernandez (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Mason Burns (St. Louis Cardinals) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Busch Stadium (PITCHER)
Hunter Dobbins xFIP 4.10
Andrew Painter xFIP 4.65
St. Louis Cardinals pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 110 blended 50% (team 97)
Philadelphia Phillies pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 98)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.05
F5 environment: park 0.98, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Home SP: Hunter Dobbins (RHP)
Away SP: Andrew Painter (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM · decision fi-a453a7386584a1ac

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.4%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -115

Raw Edge

-2.1%

Effective Edge

-3.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sonny Gray · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jameson Taillon · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sonny Gray / Jameson Taillon announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSonny Gray / Jameson Taillon announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-128	-103	52.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-115	-111	50.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

7:15 PM · decision fi-d94310a9f9e74374

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.0%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-2.4%

Effective Edge

-3.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.4% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.0%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -106

Raw Edge

-2.5%

Effective Edge

-3.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Christian Scott · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Bryce Elder · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.510
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Christian Scott / Bryce Elder announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.510

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSChristian Scott / Bryce Elder announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-120	-106	51.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

7:40 PM · decision fi-f0d3194ac4c3fb75

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -119

Raw Edge

-3.5%

Effective Edge

-5.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.0% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

+0.7%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Trevor Rogers · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Dean Kremer · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Trevor Rogers / Dean Kremer announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTrevor Rogers / Dean Kremer announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	-119	-111	50.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:46 PM · decision fi-255c732daf044339

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +110

Raw Edge

+2.9%

Effective Edge

+0.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.9% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -130

Raw Edge

-7.0%

Effective Edge

-9.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -9.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Andrew Painter · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Hunter Dobbins · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.505
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Andrew Painter / Hunter Dobbins announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.505

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSAndrew Painter / Hunter Dobbins announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	+105	-139	45.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

9:38 PM · decision fi-db9d9e99f83fd64b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.3%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -125

Raw Edge

-4.2%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.7%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +108

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: MacKenzie Gore · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Reid Detmers · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.513
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
MacKenzie Gore / Reid Detmers announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.513

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMacKenzie Gore / Reid Detmers announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-138	+108	54.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:40 PM · decision fi-64f69b2ce0aef049

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.5%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -120

Raw Edge

-5.0%

Effective Edge

-7.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.5%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-3.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Gabriel Hughes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael Soroka · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.495
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Gabriel Hughes / Michael Soroka announced and matched

2 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.495

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGabriel Hughes / Michael Soroka announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · WARN2 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (2 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
FanDuel	-120	-108	51.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5

Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics

9:41 PM · decision fi-be2a540e3509b64c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +110

Raw Edge

+3.2%

Effective Edge

+2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -135

Raw Edge

-8.2%

Effective Edge

-9.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -9.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Freddy Peralta · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Lopez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.508
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Freddy Peralta / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.508

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSFreddy Peralta / Jacob Lopez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetOnline	+109	-145	44.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

9:41 PM · decision fi-46abce5bea9d58d0

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

52.2%

Fair Odds

-109

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -137

Raw Edge

-5.6%

Effective Edge

-7.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -7.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

47.8%

Fair Odds

+109

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +128

Raw Edge

+4.0%

Effective Edge

+2.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.5% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Logan Henderson · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Casey Mize · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.522
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Logan Henderson / Casey Mize announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.522

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSLogan Henderson / Casey Mize announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-137	+104	54.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-164	+128	58.6%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-145	+115	56.0%	ACCEPTED

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

9:46 PM · decision fi-d0904ac9c3b52269

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.7%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -108

Raw Edge

-3.2%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.3%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -115

Raw Edge

-2.2%

Effective Edge

-4.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Hayden Wesneski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Blade Tidwell · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.487
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Hayden Wesneski / Blade Tidwell announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.487

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSHayden Wesneski / Blade Tidwell announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 0 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-114	-117	49.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-108	-118	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:10 PM · decision fi-ef6bd97de4bf20db

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.4%

Fair Odds

-106

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-1.6%

Effective Edge

-3.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.6%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +100

Raw Edge

-1.4%

Effective Edge

-2.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Noah Cameron · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Tarik Skubal · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-09 · updated 2026-08-10T08:29:27.578567Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.514
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Noah Cameron / Tarik Skubal announced and matched

3 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.514

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSNoah Cameron / Tarik Skubal announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS3 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (3 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetRivers	-121	-110	51.1%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 177 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=177
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+210	-	39.0%	30.1%	+8.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Noah Cameron (L)	theScore Bet	+210	-	35.5%	30.1%	+5.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	-	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	34.5%	25.6%	+9.0%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	33.5%	19.1%	+14.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	-	Dean Kremer (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.9%	23.1%	+9.8%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-	Andrew Painter (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	32.0%	19.1%	+12.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-	Hunter Dobbins (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	32.0%	26.3%	+5.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	-	Hunter Dobbins (R)	theScore Bet	+380	-	31.6%	19.1%	+12.5%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Brandon Nimmo	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	Reid Detmers (L)	theScore Bet	+450	-	30.9%	16.7%	+14.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Noah Cameron (L)	theScore Bet	+280	-	30.3%	24.3%	+5.9%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	MacKenzie Gore (L)	theScore Bet	+320	-	29.2%	21.7%	+7.5%	97	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	-	Michael Soroka (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	28.1%	21.7%	+6.4%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	-	Jameson Taillon (R)	theScore Bet	+320	-	28.1%	21.7%	+6.3%	94	-
Best HR Chance	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Freddy Peralta (R)	theScore Bet	+340	-	28.0%	20.8%	+7.2%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	-	Hayden Wesneski (R)	theScore Bet	+360	-	27.9%	19.9%	+8.0%	93	-
Best HR Chance	Yandy Diaz	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	-	Jacob Lopez (L)	theScore Bet	+340	-	27.5%	20.8%	+6.7%	92	-
Strong HR Chance	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	-	Christian Scott (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	26.9%	23.1%	+3.8%	90	-
Strong HR Chance	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	Reid Detmers (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	26.7%	23.1%	+3.6%	89	-
Best HR Chance	Zach Neto	Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	-	MacKenzie Gore (L)	theScore Bet	+360	-	26.5%	19.9%	+6.6%	88	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	-	Tarik Skubal (L)	theScore Bet	+400	-	26.0%	18.4%	+7.6%	87	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	100	89.2%	-826	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Jarren Duran, Kazuma Okamoto	Rogers Centre HR factor 0.96 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 10.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	100	88.2%	-751	Pete Alonso, Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis	Target Field HR factor 0.95 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.8%	-
Strong HR Environment	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	100	87.3%	-689	Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.7%	-
Strong HR Environment	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	100	86.8%	-660	Junior Caminero, Tyler Soderstrom, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda	Sutter Health Park HR factor 1.00 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.2%	-
Watchlist	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	100	85.7%	-597	Brandon Nimmo, Mike Trout, Jake Burger, Zach Neto	Angel Stadium HR factor 0.98	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	100	85.0%	-565	Matt Olson, Eddy Alvarez, Michael Harris II, Carson Benge	Truist Park HR factor 1.03	-
Watchlist	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	100	84.6%	-550	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Jac Caglianone, Starling Marte	Dodger Stadium HR factor 0.97	-
Watchlist	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	100	80.8%	-421	Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Jake Bauers, Ty France	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	100	80.6%	-415	Hunter Goodman, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Willi Castro	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Pass	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	87	76.3%	-322	Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	No-HR model conflict: P(no HR) 23.7%, P(U1.5) 57.8%

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Junior Caminero — Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics (+210) HR chance 39.0% | edge +8.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.282, OPS 0.916, ISO 0.268, TB/G 2.07
Statcast: barrel 13.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/116.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.517
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 29/117 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0403, xFIP 5.41, K% 20.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.291, xERA 3.50, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.050, OPS 0.967, ISO 0.230 (140 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.501, xwOBA 0.359 (81 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (+210) HR chance 35.5% | edge +5.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.232, OPS 0.937, ISO 0.250, TB/G 2.01
Statcast: barrel 16.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.574
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 25/108 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0264, xFIP 3.98, K% 22.0%
Savant xwOBA 0.323, xERA 4.39, whiff 25.6%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 0.936, ISO 0.277 (162 PA)
Pitcher HR allowed vs_lhb: HR/BF 0.0312

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Wilyer Abreu — Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (+260) HR chance 34.5% | edge +9.0%

Power baseline HR/G 0.175, OPS 0.790, ISO 0.205, TB/G 1.75
Statcast: barrel 13.0%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.1/113.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.487
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 17/114 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0756, xFIP 4.75, K% 20.8%
Savant xwOBA 0.371, xERA 6.03, whiff 26.0%
Team BvP vs SP: HR/PA 0.016, OPS 0.542 (62 PA)
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.722, ISO 0.205 (342 PA)

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Jordan Walker — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+380) HR chance 33.5% | edge +14.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.202, OPS 0.834, ISO 0.207, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 13.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.485
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 23/114 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0465, xFIP 4.67, K% 18.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.346, xERA 5.12, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.803, ISO 0.195 (361 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Pete Alonso — Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (+300) HR chance 32.9% | edge +9.8%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.818, ISO 0.220, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 13.3%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 94.0/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.518
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 24/118 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0681, xFIP 3.98, K% 23.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.328, xERA 4.54, whiff 25.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.052, OPS 0.861, ISO 0.237 (363 PA)
Park HR factor 0.95

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Alec Burleson — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+380) HR chance 32.0% | edge +12.9%

Power baseline HR/G 0.162, OPS 0.827, ISO 0.195, TB/G 1.82
Statcast: barrel 11.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.8/111.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.533
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 17/117 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0465, xFIP 4.67, K% 18.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.346, xERA 5.12, whiff 23.6%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.046, OPS 0.969, ISO 0.240 (345 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Kyle Schwarber — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+250) HR chance 32.0% | edge +5.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.310, OPS 0.904, ISO 0.288, TB/G 1.97
Statcast: barrel 16.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.0/113.2, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.481
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 29/113 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0349, xFIP 4.01, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.297, xERA 3.65, whiff 23.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.073, OPS 0.871, ISO 0.292 (316 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+380) HR chance 31.6% | edge +12.5%

Power baseline HR/G 0.210, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.246, TB/G 1.76
Statcast: barrel 11.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.513
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/119 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0349, xFIP 4.01, K% 21.3%
Savant xwOBA 0.297, xERA 3.65, whiff 23.4%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.067, OPS 1.005, ISO 0.322 (314 PA)
Park HR factor 0.93

⚠ Lineup not confirmed

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Isaac Collins	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	+700	0.8%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Xander Bogaerts	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	+650	1.2%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Luke Keaschall	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	+650	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)
Masyn Winn	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+650	1.3%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Cold recent HR form
Daulton Varsho	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	+450	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Mauricio Dubon	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	+700	1.4%	Lineup not confirmed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Geraldo Perdomo	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	+600	1.5%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Elite contact-quality suppressor
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	+750	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Low season HR rate
Ernie Clement	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	+700	1.6%	Lineup not confirmed \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA)
Jung Hoo Lee	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	+650	1.7%	Lineup not confirmed \| Pitcher has suppressed HRs \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge	Signal Result
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	9:46 PM	Blade Tidwell	Hayden Wesneski	0.82	23.7% MODEL SIGNAL	57.8% MODEL SIGNAL	-	+0.0%	No HR C Lean Signal - Derisked U1.5 C Lean Signal - Derisked
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	9:40 PM	Michael Soroka	Gabriel Hughes	1.02	19.4%	51.3%	-	+0.0%
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	9:41 PM	Casey Mize	Logan Henderson	0.85	19.2%	50.9%	-	+0.0%
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	10:10 PM	Tarik Skubal	Noah Cameron	0.97	15.4%	44.2%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	7:15 PM	Bryce Elder	Christian Scott	1.03	15.0%	43.5%	-	+0.0%
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	9:38 PM	Reid Detmers	MacKenzie Gore	0.98	14.3%	42.2%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	9:41 PM	Jacob Lopez	Freddy Peralta	1.00	13.2%	39.8%	-	+0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	7:46 PM	Hunter Dobbins	Andrew Painter	0.93	12.7%	38.8%	-	+0.0%
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	7:40 PM	Dean Kremer	Trevor Rogers	0.95	11.8%	36.9%	-	+0.0%
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	7:07 PM	Jameson Taillon	Sonny Gray	0.96	10.8%	34.8%	-	+0.0%

No-HR Model Signal Detail

🔬 MODEL Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants — MODEL SIGNAL: No HR (23.7%) | MODEL SIGNAL: Under 1.5 HR (57.8%)

Poisson lambda_adj=1.440 (raw=2.052, park_adj=-0.180, SP_z=-1.59)
No-HR enrichment multiplier: 0.99x (base lambda 1.448)
Pitch-quality lambda adjustment: 0.99x
Blade Tidwell pitch-quality 0.99x (RV/100 -0.5, xwOBA 0.308, HH% 42.9, mix ST/FF, n=282)
Pitch-mix lineup layer: insufficient batter matchup data
Bullpen HR lambda adjustment: 1.00x
San Francisco Giants bullpen HR 0.99x (vulnerability 0.94, expected pen 4.0 IP)
Houston Astros bullpen HR 1.01x (vulnerability 1.09, expected pen 3.3 IP)
P(no HR) = 23.7% P(under 1.5 HR) = 57.8%
Under 1.5 play gate: 52.2% effective (standalone target 56%)
Park HR factor: 0.82 Temp: 72 F Wind-out: -0.0 mph-eq
Home SP (Blade Tidwell): 0.0137 HR/BF Away SP (Hayden Wesneski): 0.0000 HR/BF
Houston Astros Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
San Francisco Giants Spot 1: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.5 PA = 0.1350 lambda
Houston Astros Spot 2: 0.0300 HR/PA x 4.3 PA = 0.1290 lambda
DK implied: N/A (0 batter lines — need 4+)

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

20 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	71.0	64.8	81.5	4	Changeup (38% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 28.7%, put-away 23.8%, xwOBA 0.252, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	69.2	71.6	73.0	5	Changeup (51% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 24.4%, xwOBA 0.269, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	62.4	40.9	86.5	6	Slider (21% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 20.0%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.242, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	60.6	62.3	62.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 29.2%, put-away 20.2%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	59.9	56.7	65.5	5	Split-Finger (33% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 20.5%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros	59.1	51.6	66.5	6	Sweeper (35% whiff, 37% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 15.5%, xwOBA 0.282, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	56.3	47.4	62.0	5	Slider (28% whiff, 32% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.291, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	55.5	56.7	57.0	6	Sweeper (32% whiff, 23% usage)	Savant whiff 26.1%, put-away 20.9%, xwOBA 0.301, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	55.3	56.6	56.0	6	Changeup (39% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.9%, put-away 21.1%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	54.5	54.3	54.0	5	Curveball (36% whiff, 15% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 17.3%, xwOBA 0.307, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	54.0	49.8	59.0	6	Split-Finger (31% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 23.4%, put-away 19.3%, xwOBA 0.297, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	52.4	49.1	58.5	6	Sweeper (40% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 22.8%, put-away 19.8%, xwOBA 0.298, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	51.5	45.9	57.5	5	Sweeper (32% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.5%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.300, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	49.7	46.9	54.5	5	Slider (30% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 21.2%, xwOBA 0.306, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	48.9	48.6	53.0	6	Slurve (33% whiff, 33% usage)	Savant whiff 22.4%, put-away 20.0%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	48.8	52.7	46.0	6	Changeup (34% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 25.6%, put-away 17.9%, xwOBA 0.323, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	48.1	51.6	43.5	6	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 29% usage)	Savant whiff 25.3%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.328, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	42.7	47.6	34.5	7	Split-Finger (38% whiff, 13% usage)	Savant whiff 23.6%, put-away 16.8%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	42.0	56.3	27.5	5	Cutter (44% whiff, 18% usage)	Savant whiff 27.7%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	37.7	54.1	22.0	6	Sweeper (33% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 26.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.371, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

20 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Michael Soroka	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies	R	23.1%	5.4	5.5	5.5	91	normal	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jacob Lopez	Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays	L	24.4%	4.1	4.4	4.4	69	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.0%
Bryce Elder	Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	R	19.2%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	54.50	45.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Trevor Rogers	Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins	L	22.4%	6.2	5.5	5.7	104	deep	full	57.50	42.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Sonny Gray	Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	R	21.0%	6.0	5.7	5.8	101	deep	full	58.50	41.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.7%
Gabriel Hughes	Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	R	23.4%	5.2	5.3	5.5	87	normal	full	86.50	13.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Hayden Wesneski	Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants	R	19.9%	5.6	5.8	5.7	94	normal	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Noah Cameron	Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	23.4%	7.0	5.6	6.0	117	deep	full	46.00	54.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Reid Detmers	Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	L	30.2%	4.8	5.6	5.5	80	short	full	62.00	38.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals	L	30.8%	6.3	6.0	6.1	106	deep	full	73.00	27.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Henderson	Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres	R	29.6%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	81.50	18.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Dean Kremer	Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles	R	21.4%	4.8	5.1	5.2	80	short	full	43.50	56.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.8 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Christian Scott	New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves	R	29.1%	4.9	4.7	4.7	82	short	full	57.00	43.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Andrew Painter	Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	19.0%	4.2	4.6	4.5	70	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Casey Mize	San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers	R	21.1%	4.7	5.2	5.1	79	short	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Blade Tidwell	San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros	R	20.1%	2.2	5.0	5.0	37	short	full	66.50	33.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 2.2 IP/start
Hunter Dobbins	St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	20.9%	5.3	5.2	5.4	89	normal	full	59.00	41.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Freddy Peralta	Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics	R	21.9%	4.1	5.1	4.9	69	short	full	54.00	46.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.1 IP/start
MacKenzie Gore	Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels	L	25.5%	5.4	5.4	5.4	91	normal	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jameson Taillon	Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	R	21.5%	3.8	5.0	4.8	64	short	full	22.00	78.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.8 IP/start

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

5/5 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Tarik Skubal	Tarik Skubal Over	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	18.5	21.5	3.0	16.4%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	deep	6.1	106	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Pitcher outs assessment research gate: expected innings 6.1 below Over need 6.3 -- B risk note
Sonny Gray	Sonny Gray Over	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	17.5	18.8	1.3	7.3%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.8	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Trevor Rogers	Trevor Rogers Over	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	17.5	17.8	0.3	1.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	5.7	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Noah Cameron	Noah Cameron Over	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	17.5	17.7	0.2	1.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.0	117	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Bryce Elder	Bryce Elder Under	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	17.5	17.3	-0.2	1.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.7	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

129 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Jordan Walker	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.59	1.14	0.64	0.81	2.73 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Alec Burleson	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.41	1.10	0.57	0.74	2.46 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jonathan Aranda	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.35	1.05	0.56	0.73	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Elias Diaz	Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels	Over 1.5	2.33	1.34	0.49	0.49	2.39 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Yainer Diaz	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.33	1.34	0.49	0.49	2.39 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Drake Baldwin	New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves	Over 1.5	2.31	1.04	0.65	0.61	2.35 / Over	0.35	season_games=95,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.30	1.09	0.55	0.65	2.06 / Over	0.35	season_games=103,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Luis Arraez	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.27	1.27	0.53	0.46	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Willson Contreras	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.26	1.01	0.54	0.70	2.36 / Over	0.35	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ceddanne Rafaela	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.25	1.15	0.53	0.57	2.46 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.21	0.95	0.62	0.64	2.13 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins	Over 1.5	2.21	0.95	0.60	0.66	2.25 / Over	0.35	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.21	1.11	0.61	0.49	2.21 / Over	0.35	season_games=84,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brice Turang	Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.20	1.04	0.58	0.57	2.18 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Ivan Herrera	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.19	1.19	0.50	0.50	2.13 / Over	0.69	exact_hrr_l10	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, lineup_not_confirmed, missing_pitcher_assessment
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	0.90	0.64	0.64	2.01 / Over	0.35	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Trea Turner	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.17	1.01	0.73	0.43	1.97 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.16	0.89	0.64	0.63	1.96 / Over	0.35	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays	Over 1.5	2.16	1.01	0.56	0.59	2.40 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Andy Pages	Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers	Over 1.5	2.13	1.06	0.50	0.58	2.32 / Over	0.35	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
JJ Wetherholt	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.13	0.98	0.70	0.45	2.12 / Over	0.35	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Gabriel Moreno	Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.11	1.02	0.53	0.55	1.79 / Over	0.35	season_games=90,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Tyler Soderstrom	Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics	Over 1.5	2.10	0.88	0.61	0.61	1.85 / Over	0.35	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Jung Hoo Lee	Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants	Over 1.5	2.05	1.16	0.49	0.40	2.29 / Over	0.35	season_games=108,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.04	1.00	0.56	0.48	1.87 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 1 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

No-HR Model Signal Detail

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes