MLB Bets 2026-08-09

PERFORMANCE

Auto-verified via MLB Stats API

Recent (14d)

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	959W–465L–0P	67%	-56.98 u	Last 14 days • 1424 settled
Grade A	23W–29L–0P	44%	-12.17 u
Grade B	935W–431L–0P	68%	-41.09 u

All-time

	Record	Win%	P&L
Overall	3309W–2100L–8P	61%	-210.32 u	All-time • 5417 settled
Grade A	252W–197L–0P	56%	-8.20 u
Grade B	3056W–1898L–8P	62%	-198.40 u

198 pending

Pending Bets

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L
2026-05-11	Pitcher Hits Allow	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-14	Batter Total Bases	Byron Buxton	1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-17	Batter Total Bases	Shea Langeliers	1.5	-138	-	PENDING	-
2026-05-20	Batter Total Bases	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-01	K Prop	Chase Burns	6.5	-148	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-08	Batter Walks	Rodolfo Duran	0.5	-368	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-09	Batter Walks	Tyler Freeman	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Hits	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-258	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-11	Batter Walks	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	-434	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-12	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-409	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-13	Batter Walks	Keibert Ruiz	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-370	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-14	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-296	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-15	Pitcher Walks	Troy Melton	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-19	Pitcher Earned Run	Cade Cavalli	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	K Prop	Nathan Eovaldi	5.5	-130	-	PENDING	-
2026-06-20	Pitcher Earned Run	Nathan Eovaldi	1.5	-173	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-04	Pitcher Walks	Tomoyuki Sugano	1.5	-186	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-24	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-490	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-25	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-442	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-26	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-27	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-388	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Hits	Curtis Mead	1.5	-244	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-28	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-29	Pitcher Earned Run	Christian Scott	2.5	-175	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Batter Walks	Marco Gonzales	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Earned Run	Casey Mize	2.5	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-07-31	Pitcher Hits Allow	Casey Mize	5.5	-131	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-01	K Prop	Jose Soriano	5.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Brett Baty	0.5	-536	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Batter Walks	Jahmai Jones	0.5	-290	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	K Prop	Michael King	5.5	-101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Earned Run	Michael King	1.5	-172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-02	Pitcher Walks	Michael King	1.5	-171	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	-208	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-330	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-03	Batter Walks	Lars Nootbaar	0.5	-280	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-328	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Ian Seymour	5.5	-145	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-04	Pitcher Hits Allow	Michael King	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-05	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-195	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	Batter Walks	Joey Ortiz	0.5	-440	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-07	K Prop	Merrill Kelly (ARIZ)	3.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Andy Pages	1.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Bryce Harper	1.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	CJ Abrams	1.5	-143	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Jake McCarthy	1.5	-135	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Kyle Schwarber	1.5	-141	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Luis Arraez	1.5	-144	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez	1.5	-159	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter H+R+RBI	Trea Turner	1.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	A.J. Ewing	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Alan Roden	0.5	-557	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Alec Burleson	0.5	-288	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	-255	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Andres Gimenez	0.5	-650	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Austin Riley	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Bo Bichette	0.5	-464	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brandon Lowe	0.5	-374	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	-254	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	-356	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brett Bateman	0.5	-293	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brett Sullivan	0.5	-471	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Brooks Lee	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	-218	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Cameron Cauley	0.5	-389	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	-431	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Carson Benge	0.5	-358	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Cedric Mullins	0.5	-305	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.5	-386	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Christian Walker	0.5	-260	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Coby Mayo	0.5	-362	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Cole Carrigg	0.5	-284	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Colton Cowser	0.5	-233	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Corey Seager	0.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Daylen Lile	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Denzer Guzman	0.5	-396	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Dillon Dingler	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Drake Baldwin	0.5	-270	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Drew Gilbert	0.5	-281	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Dylan Beavers	0.5	-202	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Elias Diaz	0.5	-405	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Elieser Hernández	0.5	-275	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Enmanuel Valdez	0.5	-160	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ernie Clement	0.5	-441	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	-158	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Evan Carter	0.5	-215	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	-304	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	-900	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Francisco Lindor	0.5	-263	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Griffin Conine	0.5	-271	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Heriberto Hernandez	0.5	-239	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Hunter Goodman	0.5	-337	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	J.T. Realmuto	0.5	-257	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jac Caglianone	0.5	-456	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jackson Holliday	0.5	-227	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jake Burger	0.5	-319	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jake Mangum	0.5	-422	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jake McCarthy	0.5	-550	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	-397	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jo Adell	0.5	-400	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jonah Bride	0.5	-316	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jordan Walker	0.5	-354	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Josh Bell	0.5	-335	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Josh Lowe	0.5	-317	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	-279	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Jung Hoo Lee	0.5	-350	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Justin Foscue	0.5	-334	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Kazuma Okamoto	0.5	-300	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ketel Marte	0.5	-341	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Kody Clemens	0.5	-450	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Kyle Karros	0.5	-324	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Leody Taveras	0.5	-262	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Luis Arraez	0.5	-447	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Luis Garcia Jr.	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Luke Keaschall	0.5	-327	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Masyn Winn	0.5	-306	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Matt Olson	0.5	-217	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mauricio Dubon	0.5	-800	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Michael Harris II	0.5	-650	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Michael Massey	0.5	-630	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mickey Moniak	0.5	-468	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Mike Yastrzemski	0.5	-341	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Moises Ballesteros	0.5	-283	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nathaniel Lowe	0.5	-230	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nick Gonzales	0.5	-500	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nick Loftin	0.5	-292	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nicky Lopez	0.5	-421	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nico Hoerner	0.5	-436	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Nolan Schanuel	0.5	-246	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Osleivis Basabe	0.5	-509	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Otto Lopez	0.5	-369	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Owen Caissie	0.5	-308	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ozzie Albies	0.5	-525	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ronald Acuna Jr.	0.5	-211	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ronny Simon	0.5	-393	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Royce Lewis	0.5	-495	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Ryan Kreidler	0.5	-600	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Salvador Perez	0.5	-438	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Starling Marte	0.5	-495	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	TJ Rumfield	0.5	-273	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Trea Turner	0.5	-358	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Trevor Larnach	0.5	-297	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Tyler O'Neill	0.5	-245	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Victor Caratini	0.5	-380	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Wade Meckler	0.5	-240	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Willi Castro	0.5	-320	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Willy Adames	0.5	-273	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Batter Walks	Wyatt Langford	0.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	F5 ML	Athletics	-	172	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	F5 Total	Under	5.5	-132	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Grayson Rodriguez	5.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Jacob Misiorowski	8.5	-134	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Joey Cantillo	5.5	-123	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Logan Webb	4.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	K Prop	Troy Melton	4.5	-162	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	NRFI	NRFI	-	130	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Cam Schlittler	2.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Cristian Javier	2.5	-120	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Grayson Rodriguez	2.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	JT Ginn	3.5	-155	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Jacob Misiorowski	1.5	-187	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Jesus Luzardo	1.5	-166	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Joey Cantillo	2.5	-140	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Randy Dobnak	3.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Earned Run	Troy Melton	2.5	-165	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	JT Ginn	5.5	101	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jesus Luzardo	5.5	-147	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Jesús Luzardo	5.5	-150	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Hits Allow	Randy Dobnak	5.5	111	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Outs	Grayson Rodriguez	17.5	-133	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Outs	Jacob Misiorowski	17.5	-207	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Brady Singer	1.5	-181	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Cade Povich	1.5	-154	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Eduardo Rodriguez	1.5	-193	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Grant Holmes	1.5	-167	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Grayson Rodriguez	1.5	-168	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Jesus Luzardo	1.5	-118	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Kumar Rocker	1.5	-176	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Michael McGreevy	1.5	-163	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Sean Manaea	1.5	-119	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Pitcher Walks	Shane Bieber	1.5	-136	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Run Line	Arizona Diamondbacks	+1.5	-142	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Run Line	Kansas City Royals	+1.5	-121	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Total	Over	8.0	-115	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	Total	Over	8.5	-107	-	PENDING	-
2026-08-09	YRFI	YRFI	-	128	-	PENDING	-

Recent Grade A Settled

Date	Type	Play	Line	Odds	Size	Result	P&L	Actual
2026-08-08	K Prop	Gavin Williams	7.5	-122	-	LOSS	-1.000	Gavin Williams: 7.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-08	K Prop	Chris Sale	7.5	-137	-	WIN	+0.730	Chris Sale: 8.0 (line 7.5)
2026-08-08	K Prop	Gerrit Cole	5.5	-120	-	WIN	+0.833	Gerrit Cole: 9.0 (line 5.5)

MARKET TRUST TIERS

17 market(s) with settled tracker history

Market	Trust	Season N	Season WR	Season P&L	14d N	14d WR	14d P&L	Grade A N	Grade A WR	Review-only N
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	532	55%	-18.05u	66	45%	-14.07u	251	56%	64
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	474	58%	+12.59u	64	59%	+1.76u	4	50%	6
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	163	58%	+6.69u	18	83%	+7.89u	44	64%	1
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	1720	74%	-34.80u	816	74%	-29.92u	8	75%	134
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	539	56%	-26.58u	115	53%	-11.48u	1	100%	9
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	397	60%	-10.68u	84	65%	+5.66u	0	-	11
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	53	70%	-0.98u	12	42%	-5.06u	0	-	23
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	34	53%	-0.50u	2	50%	-0.16u	0	-	37
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	28	48%	+4.54u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	10	30%	-4.27u	1	100%	+0.91u	0	-	0
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	6	50%	+2.85u	0	-	+0.00u	0	-	0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	4	25%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	2
YRFI	👀 WATCH	3	67%	-1.00u	1	0%	-1.00u	0	-	4
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	118	47%	-12.88u	8	62%	+0.79u	2	50%	8
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	58	40%	-10.94u	5	40%	-1.20u	1	100%	7
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	29	55%	-1.07u	21	57%	-0.03u	1	0%	6
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	582	52%	-57.17u	67	52%	-6.33u	86	53%	355

Raw edge is an uncalibrated ranking/debug signal. Trust tiers come from Best/Good settled tracker performance; review-only rows are shown separately.

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

What each market needs to move stages

Market	Current Stage	Next Stage	Progress	Promotion Blockers
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	2/4	season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Maintain Trusted	4/4	No blocker
Batter Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Earned Runs	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Pitcher Walks	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	3/5	season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
No HR U1.5	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	1/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	2/5	season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 20 and WR >= 55% or Grade B sample >= 50, WR >= 55%, P&L > 0
NRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
YRFI	👀 WATCH	✅ Trusted	0/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	1/5	season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10; 14d WR >= 52%
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	👀 Watch	2/5	season sample >= 50; season P&L positive; Grade A sample >= 10 and WR >= 52%
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	🔬 Research	2/5	diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative

Promotion criteria keep markets from getting stuck in purgatory: each stage has explicit evidence needed for the next stage.

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

Runtime signal usage matrix

Component	Status	Current Usage	Recommendation Impact	Next Action
K Prop	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 28 total candidate(s); season N 532, 14d N 66	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; season P&L non-negative; 14d P&L non-negative
Pitcher Hits Allowed	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 4 actionable / 17 total candidate(s); season N 474, 14d N 64	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
Run Line	✅ TRUSTED	Active recommendation market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 163, 14d N 18	Can produce Best Signal / Add Signal output.	Maintain Trusted; No blocker
PitcherAssessment	LIVE	Shared pitcher context; 29 starter assessment(s) emitted.	Active context for pitcher and batter engines; diagnostic table elsewhere.	Monitor assessment quality and data gaps.
Savant Pitch Quality	LIVE	Free public-data diagnostics; 29/29 assessment(s) scored.	Diagnostic-only replacement path for paid PLV; does not change recommendations.	Validate supported vs unsupported settled results before activation.
Player Context	LIVE	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, and workload diagnostics.	Context notes and real role/workload risks only; no global threshold changes.	Validate split and health-ramp signals before scoring them.
Batter Hits	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 29 total candidate(s); season N 53, 14d N 12	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season P&L positive; 14d P&L non-negative
Batter Total Bases	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 277 total candidate(s); season N 34, 14d N 2	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
F5 ML	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 28, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Moneyline	👀 WATCH	Active watch-stage market; 0 actionable / 1 total candidate(s); season N 6, 14d N 0	Can surface recommendations with trust caution; promotion waits for evidence.	✅ Trusted; season sample >= 50; 14d sample >= 10
Pitcher Outs	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 1 actionable / 13 total candidate(s); season N 118, 14d N 8	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
No HR	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	Validate forward results before promotion.
Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 4 total candidate(s); season N 58, 14d N 5	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season P&L positive; 14d sample >= 10
F5 Total	🔬 RESEARCH	Research / held market; 2 actionable / 2 total candidate(s); season N 29, 14d N 21	Held from actionable output unless explicitly validated.	👀 Watch; season sample >= 50; season P&L positive
Batter H+R+RBI	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 2 actionable / 206 total candidate(s); season N 582, 14d N 67	No actionable recommendations.	🔬 Research; diagnostic/component model has settled validation; season P&L non-negative
Batter Hits+Runs+RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
Batter Hits Runs RBIs	⛔ PAUSED	Paused shadow market; 0 actionable / 0 total candidate(s)	No actionable recommendations.	Build or validate replacement signal before unpausing.
HRR Component Research	⛔ PAUSED	Shadow component research; 206 candidate(s) emitted.	No recommendation impact while HRR remains paused.	Validate component record before unpausing HRR.
AI Review	API ERROR	Optional post-run advisory review of settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only; cannot change recommendations, tracker saves, or thresholds.	Provider call failed; check quota, billing, model access, or key project.

This table is generated from runtime market status, market health, and run diagnostics. It explains whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.

DATA READINESS

Input data availability for this run

✓	READY	Available	Savant: 789 pitcher(s) with metrics
✓	READY	Available	Pitch-type matchup data: 30 team(s), 224 team×pitch-type combinations
✓	READY	Available	Pitcher arsenal: 766 pitcher(s), 3386 pitch-type profiles
✓	READY	Available	Batter pitch-type profiles: 579 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Handedness: 29 pitcher(s) \| Team splits: 30 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Team recent batting: 30 team(s) with last-7 K/BB/contact rates
✓	READY	Available	Lineups confirmed: 22 team(s), 198 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	BVP context: 30 roster team(s), 390 hitter(s) \| 29 SP matchup(s), 836 career PA
✓	READY	Available	Lineup batter handedness: 198 player(s)
✓	READY	Available	Umpires confirmed: 12 game(s)
✓	READY	Available	Rest data: 30 team(s) \| Back-to-back: Washington Nationals, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Athletics, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen data: 30 team(s) \| Fatigued pens: New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox
✓	READY	Available	Bullpen HR vulnerability: 31 team(s)
✓	READY	Available	Weather: 3 game(s) with meaningful conditions
✓	READY	Available	First-inning artifact: loaded \| 26 materialized half-inning row(s)
✓	READY	Available	Savant first-inning pitcher context: 338 pitcher(s)
✓	READY	Available	Pitching prop coverage: OK -- 14/14 game(s) with pitching props \| K 30 line(s)/14 game(s); Outs 29 line(s)/14 game(s); Hits Allowed 28 line(s)/14 game(s); Walks 24 line(s)/13 game(s); Earned Runs 27 line(s)/14 game(s) \| selected sources: draftkings 126, bovada_direct 9, betmgm 2, fanatics 1
✓	READY	Available	Line movement: 3094 market side(s) checked \| 3094 opening snapshot(s) created \| 0 with movement
✓	READY	Available	Market health: 17 market(s) loaded from tracker
✓	READY	Available	Player context: lazy game-log split and recent-return diagnostics enabled
✓	READY	Available	F5: 14 game(s) fetched \| 14 with ML odds \| 14 with total odds \| 3 play(s) above 8% edge
✓	READY	Available	HRR research: 206 component candidate(s) emitted (diagnostics only; market remains paused)
✓	READY	Available	No-HR model: 14 game(s) scored \| 0 above probability threshold \| 11 with DK implied prob
✓	READY	Available	HR layers: batter Statcast 625 \| batter bats 399 \| batter hand splits 142 \| pitcher HR splits 58 \| batter pitch-type 579 \| bullpen HR 31
✓	READY	Available	HR model: 249 batter(s) scored \| 14 game environment(s) scored \| 0 strong/elite batter edge(s)
⚠	SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking	Probability shadow unavailable: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '/home/runner/work/mlb-picks/mlb-picks/artifacts/probability_calibration.json'

TODAY'S SLATE

Selected approved-book lines + consensus direction

Matchup	Time (ET)	Away ML	Home ML	Away RL	Home RL	Total	Con ML	Sources
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	+207	-223	1.5 (-102)	-1.5 (-118)	O/U 9.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	+131	-141	1.5 (-166)	-1.5 (+137)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	+130	-140	1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+144)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	+212	-229	1.5 (-107)	-1.5 (-113)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	+131	-140	1.5 (-167)	-1.5 (+138)	O/U 8.5	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	-158	+147	-1.5 (-108)	1.5 (-112)	O/U 10.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	-125	+116	-1.5 (+123)	1.5 (-149)	O/U 8.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	+238	-258	1.5 (+103)	-1.5 (-124)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	+147	-158	1.5 (-143)	-1.5 (+119)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	+116	-124	1.5 (-191)	-1.5 (+157)	O/U 8.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	-119	+111	-1.5 (+138)	1.5 (-167)	O/U 7.5	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-141	+131	-1.5 (+112)	1.5 (-135)	O/U 9.0	AWAY	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	-104	-104	-1.5 (+160)	1.5 (-195)	O/U 7.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	+108	-116	1.5 (-193)	-1.5 (+158)	O/U 9.0	HOME	ML: DK \| RL: DK \| Total: DK	Bet on DK

Ranked Signals

2 Grade A | 125 Grade B | 1010 Watchlist | 0 No-Play | 0 Fade

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Grade	Signal	Type	Side	Game	Time (ET)	Line	Proj	Odds	Best Book / Line	Edge/Diff	Signal Breakdown ✓!✗–	Tier
A	⛔ Paused HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -152	Batter H+R+RBI	Otto Lopez Over	ANG@MAR	1:40 PM	1.5	2.8	-152	theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 \| best price	84.2%	✓✓✓–✓–	Best Signal
A	✅ Best Signal	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	CUB@ROY	2:10 PM	1.5	-	-112	LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -107 \| best price	+18.4%	–✓✓✓–✓	Best Signal

View Full Audit →

Today's Signal Board

▸ Line Move / Shop Watch - selected line differs from the market (23 play(s))

Pitcher Earned Runs - Jacob Misiorowski Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Jordan Walker Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.3

Batter Total Bases - Heriberto Hernandez Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Miguel Vargas Over

Projection: 1.8Displayed: Over 0.5 -165Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Ildemaro Vargas Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Zach Neto Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

F5 Total - Under 5.5

Projection: -Displayed: Under 5.5 -132Market line: majority 5 | avg N/ARecommended: MyBookie Under 5.5 -124 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Selected line 5.5 is split from majority 5 / avg N/A

K Prop - Cam Schlittler Under

Selected line 7.5 is split from majority 6.5 / avg 6.5

Pitcher Hits Allowed - Eduardo Rodriguez Under

Selected line 6.5 is split from majority 5.5 / avg 5.75

Pitcher Earned Runs - Troy Melton Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Pitcher Earned Runs - Shane Bieber Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 3

Pitcher Earned Runs - Michael Lorenzen Under

Selected line 3.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.83

Batter Hits - Jarren Duran Under

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Hits - Jose Ramirez Under

Projection: 0.9Displayed: Under 1.5 -267Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 1Recommended: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best priceOwn-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter H+R+RBI - Willson Contreras Over

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 2.5 / avg 2.3

Batter H+R+RBI - Kyle Schwarber Over

Projection: 2.6Displayed: Over 2.5 +104Market line: majority 1.5 | avg 2Recommended: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Selected line 2.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 2

Batter H+R+RBI - Cal Raleigh Over

Projection: 1.5Displayed: Over 1.5 +123Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.83Recommended: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.83

Batter Total Bases - Jimmy Crooks Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.25

Batter Total Bases - Carson Benge Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 1.5 / avg 1.17

Batter Total Bases - Jonah Heim Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Tommy White Over

Selected line 0.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 1

Batter Total Bases - Christian Walker Over

Projection: 1.7Displayed: Over 1.5 +138Market line: majority 0.5 | avg 0.9Recommended: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescueOwn-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Selected line 1.5 is split from majority 0.5 / avg 0.9

Total - Over 7.0

Projection: -Displayed: Over 7 -124Market line: majority 7.5 | avg N/ARecommended: DK Over 7 -124 | exactOwn-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7Selected market: N/A

Selected line 7 is split from majority 7.5 / avg N/A

Best Signals (Grade A)

A Best Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-152) diff 84.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 56.4% / Under 43.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-152	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓– ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.163, xSLG 0.221 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/58 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.45 | Away Batter HRR: 35/56 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 73/114 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.35
A-tier gate: strong consensus 100%

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -152 -- A risk note

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Best Signal ✅ Best Signal Run Line — Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 (-112) edge 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -107 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -112

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Kansas City Royals 1.5 -107 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓✓–✓ ► Best Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (26)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+30.28/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 18.4% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -112 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 99)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Randy Dobnak small sample (31 IP) — stats 38% actual / 62% league avg (regression applied)

▼ Add Signals - Grade B (125 play(s))

▸ K Prop — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal K Prop — Joey Cantillo Over 5.5 (-119) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -119

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	5.5	-123	-105	-
BetRivers	5.5	-130	-103	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-105	-
DK	5.5	-119	-107	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-125	-102	-
Fanatics	5.5	-115	-115	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 7.5K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 35.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.97K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.2% / under 48.8%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Joey Cantillo: K/9 11.0, proj 7.5K over 4.8 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 29.6% | put-away% 21.9% | xwOBA 0.309 | top pitch: Changeup (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alex Tosi — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago White Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 30.2% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 18 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .278
BVP K adjustment: 1.04x from 18 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 27.4%, split 21.3%, L7 30.2%, season 24.0%, BVP 50.0%/18 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 11/24 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.60 | Season Avg 5.38
Prop trend: K L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.22 vs season
K% trend: support +5.6 ppts (recent 30.6% vs season 25.0%, proj adj +2.8%)

⚠ Matchup: Weather: +8% run env ✓ Over | Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.06) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ K final QC: 6/9 bats with platoon edge -- B risk note

⚠ Market status TRUSTED: strong Grade B K Prop kept as Good Add (raw gap 1.97K, diff 35.9%, books 86%)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only K Prop — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-158) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Under 4.5 +118; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-155	+115	-
FanDuel	4.5	-150	+118	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	4.5	+260	-450	-
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169	-
BetRivers	5.5	+117	-157	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+110	-145	Recommended
DK	5.5	+124	-158	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 4.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 27.5% vs 17% min; cushion -1.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Grayson Rodriguez: K/9 7.3, proj 4.0K over 5.0 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.3% | put-away% 13.7% | xwOBA 0.399 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Miami Marlins whiff% vs Changeup: 38.6% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 24% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.82
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: K Prop Grade B held for recalibration -- derisk posture

▸ Pitcher Outs — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Pitcher Outs — Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 (-207) diff 18.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 17.5 -174 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -207

Selected market: Over 63.1% / Under 36.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 17.5 -174 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-200	+145	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-200	+150	-
Caesars	17.5	-190	+135	-
DK	17.5	-207	+154	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-174	+128	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 20.682 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 18.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +1.0 IP (xFIP 1.94 vs lg 4.20); projected 7.0 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 63.1% / under 36.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 63.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.0 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +1.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 94
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.1%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 7.7%, L7 8.7%, season 8.6% (adj 0.99x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.0 IP/GS
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 18.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.90 | Season Avg 18.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-207); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 4 play(s) (B 4)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — JT Ginn Under 5.5 (+101) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-134	+101	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 4.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 25.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.4 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jesus Luzardo Under 5.5 (-161) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-
DK	5.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-161) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Jesús Luzardo Under 5.5 (-150) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -150

Selected market: Over 44.2% / Under 55.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 55.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.73 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.05, BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.2% / under 55.8%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 5.04
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 9/10 under 5.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-150) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Pitcher Hits Allowed — Randy Dobnak Under 5.5 (+115) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +115

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
DK	5.5	-153	+115	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 4.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.82 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 56.5% / under 43.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Randy Dobnak: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 5/6 (83%) | L20 5/6 (83%) | Season 5/6 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.00 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/6 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

▸ Pitcher Walks — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grant Holmes Over 1.5 (-192) diff 47.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.6% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-192	+144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.2095068319115705 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 47.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.051
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.2%, split 11.5%, L7 10.2%, season 9.9%, BVP 7.7%/26 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-192) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Sean Manaea Over 1.5 (-113) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-113	-117	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.0845454444817495 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 49.6% / under 50.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: 1.10x walks (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 7.6%, L7 11.3%, season 9.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.10x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Shane Bieber Over 1.5 (-157) diff 38.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-157	+118	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-155	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.076740469998086 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.43 over 4.7 IP (BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .605
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, top-6 19.9%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.9%, L7 12.7%, season 8.2%, BVP 5.1%/39 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.9% (5/6); lineup K% 19.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/8 (75%) | L20 6/8 (75%) | Season 6/8 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/8 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-157) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Kumar Rocker Over 1.5 (-170) diff 35.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -170

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-170	+128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.0287375677821786 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.2% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.37 over 4.9 IP (BB% 8.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.9% / under 41.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.13x walks (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.2%, L7 29.1%, season 24.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.6%, split 10.6%, L7 10.8%, season 10.3% (adj 1.13x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-170); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-193) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -193

Selected market: Over 61.7% / Under 38.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-193	+144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+135	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.9203796987060038 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.34 over 5.5 IP (BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.6% / under 38.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.01x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.8%, L7 6.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.1%/209 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-193) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-118) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9045057408728454 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.33 over 5.9 IP (BB% 7.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.6% / under 49.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Opp batting adj: 1.00x walks (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 15/23 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Grayson Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-151) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-151	+114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.9006916725867242 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 4.7 IP (BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.06x walks (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.4%, split 9.9%, L7 9.2%, season 8.9% (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/11 (73%) | Season 8/11 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-151); break-even ~60%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Walks — Michael McGreevy Under 1.5 (-162) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -162 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+122	-162	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.124347664039356 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.0% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.1 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.86x walks (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .773
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.3%, L7 6.5%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.86x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/22 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-162) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 8 play(s) (B 8)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 (-137) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -137

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	-
DK	3.5	+104	-137	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	3.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.2 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 37.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.81 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.39, ERA 2.24)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.9% / under 54.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Randy Dobnak: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/6 (100%) | L20 6/6 (100%) | Season 6/6 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.67 | Season Avg 0.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/6 under 3.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cam Schlittler Under 2.5 (-155) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-175	-
DK	2.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 36.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.55 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 2.89, ERA 2.66)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3%, top-6 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 18/24 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-182) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+140	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.0 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.3% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 1.62 over 5.6 IP (xFIP 1.94, ERA 1.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 39.6% / under 60.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.1%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.10
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Heavy juice (-182); break-even ~65%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Grayson Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-124) diff 32.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-135	+100	-
DK	2.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 3.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 32.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.14 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.71, ERA 6.27)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 51.7% / under 48.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/11 (55%) | Season 6/11 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 3.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — JT Ginn Under 3.5 (-156) diff 31.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 3.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	3.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	3.5	+117	-156	Selected
Fanatics	3.5	+110	-155	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.4 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 31.4% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.07 over 5.4 IP (xFIP 4.21, ERA 3.97)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 3.5 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 20/23 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 3.5; recent avg up +0.64 vs season

⚠ Heavy juice (-156); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Joey Cantillo Under 2.5 (-145) diff 24.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -145

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 24.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.01 over 4.6 IP (xFIP 3.98, ERA 4.22)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 4.6 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.2% / under 54.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Chicago White Sox): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Joey Cantillo: 18 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .111 | OPS .278
Opponent K profile: composite 27.4%, split 21.3%, L7 30.2%, season 24.0%, BVP 50.0%/18 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago White Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 8/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Cristian Javier Under 2.5 (-118) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -118

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 2.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	2.5	-113	-118	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	-120	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.0 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.91 over 3.7 IP (xFIP 4.70, ERA 4.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.7 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.5% / under 50.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 17.5%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/9 (56%) | L20 5/9 (56%) | Season 5/9 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.22 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/9 under 2.5

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Pitcher Earned Runs — Jesus Luzardo Over 1.5 (-166) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-166	+125	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-155	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.71 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 3.02, ERA 2.95)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.4% / under 41.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.82 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-166) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter Walks — 95 play(s) (B 95)

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-650) diff 80.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.2% / Under 81.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+417	-650	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

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▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.11
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/112 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter Walks: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 101/112 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-650) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-478) diff 77.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -478 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+319	-478	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-478) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-520) diff 77.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -520 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -520

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -520 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+344	-520	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.15
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 96/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/54 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter Walks: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 96/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-520) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-441) diff 76.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -441

Selected market: Over 23.6% / Under 76.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -441 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+297	-441	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.13
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/115 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter Walks: 101/115 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-441) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-375) diff 73.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -375

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.16
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/60 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter Walks: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter Walks: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-375) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-492) diff 73.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -492 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -492

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -492 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+328	-492	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.18
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 85/102 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter Walks: 85/102 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-492) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-680) diff 72.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -680

Selected market: Over 17.7% / Under 82.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -680 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+432	-680	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.64x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 86/108 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 86/108 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-680) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~87%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-354) diff 67.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+244	-354	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter Walks: 51/60 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-354) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-536) diff 67.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -536

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+353	-536	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter Walks: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-536) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-367) diff 65.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-367	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.23
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/103 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/47 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter Walks: 81/103 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23

⚠ Heavy juice (-367); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-486) diff 60.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -486 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -486

Selected market: Over 22.1% / Under 77.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -486 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+324	-486	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 86/109 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 86/109 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-486) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-419) diff 59.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+284	-419	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/108 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 80/108 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.27

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-419) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-385) diff 57.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.17
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter Walks: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Heavy juice (-385); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-451) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -451 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -451

Selected market: Over 23.3% / Under 76.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -451 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+303	-451	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 82/112 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 82/112 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-451); break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-378) diff 56.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -378

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -378 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+259	-378	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 56.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter Walks: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-378) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-211) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -211 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -211

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -211 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+151	-211	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-211) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-341) diff 55.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -341 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.8% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-341) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-538) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -538

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+325	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+354	-538	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 88/117 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 45/59 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 88/117 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26

⚠ Heavy juice (-538); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-396) diff 55.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+270	-396	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.21

⚠ Heavy juice (-396); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-284) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-284) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-468) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -468

Selected market: Over 22.7% / Under 77.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -468 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+313	-468	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+340	-550	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-468) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Sullivan Under 0.5 (-471) diff 54.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.0% fallback
Base projection 0.30 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-471) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-369) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -369

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -369 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+254	-369	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!!!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 88/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-369) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-337) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/100 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/50 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter Walks: 74/100 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-490) diff 53.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -490 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -490

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -490 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+320	-500	-
DK	0.5	+326	-490	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.31
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/116 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 83/116 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.31

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-490) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-518) diff 52.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -518

Selected market: Over 21.2% / Under 78.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -475 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+342	-518	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.25
Base projection 0.25 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.25

⚠ Heavy juice (-518); break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-296) diff 52.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 80/113 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

⚠ Heavy juice (-296); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-340) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -340

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+235	-340	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/99 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27 | Away Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 73/99 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.32

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-340) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-297) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+208	-297	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-297); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-380) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -380

Selected market: Over 26.0% / Under 74.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+260	-380	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-380) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-495) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -495

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+329	-495	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-495); break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-557) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -557

Selected market: Over 20.2% / Under 79.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+365	-557	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-557) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~85%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-600) diff 51.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.3% / Under 80.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -600 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+389	-600	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!–!– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 51.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-600) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-292) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+205	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-292) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-630) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.7% / Under 81.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+404	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-630) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~86%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-255) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-255) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brett Bateman Under 0.5 (-293) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -293 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -293 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+205	-293	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-293) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-447) diff 50.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -447 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -447

Selected market: Over 23.4% / Under 76.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -447 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+301	-447	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.24
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP walk adjustment: 0.89x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.27 | Day Batter Walks: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-447) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-218) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -205 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-205	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+155	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-218) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~69%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-281) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-281) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-509) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -509

Selected market: Over 21.5% / Under 78.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -509 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+337	-509	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-509) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~84%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-495) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -495 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -495

Selected market: Over 21.9% / Under 78.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -495 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+329	-495	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-495) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~83%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-341) diff 49.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -341

Selected market: Over 27.8% / Under 72.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+236	-341	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/56 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 43/56 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 77/112 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-341) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-358) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+246	-358	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 42/55 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-358); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-337) diff 48.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -337

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -337 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+233	-337	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/107 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/107 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-337) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-315) diff 48.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -315

Selected market: Over 29.2% / Under 70.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+219	-315	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/108 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/108 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.27

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-315) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-330) diff 44.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -330 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 83/112 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 83/112 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.29

⚠ Heavy juice (-330); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-240) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -240

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+171	-240	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-240); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-283) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -283

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -283 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-290	-
DK	0.5	+199	-283	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-283); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-396) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -396

Selected market: Over 25.3% / Under 74.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -396 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+270	-396	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-396); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-263) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -263

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+185	-263	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-263); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-284) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -284

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 68.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+199	-284	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-284); break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-273) diff 43.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+192	-273	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/112 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/53 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 43/59 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 82/112 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-273) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-385) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -385

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -385 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+263	-385	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-385) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-327) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.0% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Heavy juice (-327); break-even ~77%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-273) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -273

Selected market: Over 31.9% / Under 68.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -273 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+192	-273	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/58 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.39

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-273) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-300) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-310	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 80/115 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 39/58 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 80/115 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-300) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-358) diff 38.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -358

Selected market: Over 27.0% / Under 73.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -358 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+246	-358	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/60 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter Walks: 40/55 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 87/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-358) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-279) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -279

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -279 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+196	-279	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/107 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 37/51 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 74/107 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-279) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-167) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -167

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+120	-167	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-167); break-even ~63%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-196) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -196

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+141	-196	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-196); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jonah Bride Under 0.5 (-316) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -316

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -316 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-316) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-348) diff 37.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+240	-348	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-348); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-246) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -246

Selected market: Over 33.9% / Under 66.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+174	-246	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 69/97 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/51 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 31/46 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 69/97 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-246); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-397) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -397

Selected market: Over 25.2% / Under 74.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -390 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+271	-397	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-397) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-354) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -354

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -354 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+244	-354	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/113 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 82/113 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-354) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-324) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -324

Selected market: Over 28.7% / Under 71.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+225	-324	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/53 under 0.5 (57%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 67/109 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.43

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-324) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-374) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+257	-374	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-374); break-even ~79%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-317) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -317

Selected market: Over 29.1% / Under 70.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-310	-
DK	0.5	+221	-317	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Heavy juice (-317); break-even ~76%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+164	-230	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 0.82x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-230) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-254) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -254

Selected market: Over 33.3% / Under 66.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -240 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+179	-254	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 79/111 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 79/111 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.34

⚠ Heavy juice (-254); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-217) diff 33.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -217

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -217 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/117 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/59 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 36/58 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 75/117 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.44

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-217) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~68%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-160) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -160 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-160); break-even ~62%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Esmerlyn Valdez Under 0.5 (-158) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -158

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+114	-158	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-158); break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-393) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+268	-393	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Heavy juice (-393); break-even ~80%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-422) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -422

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -422 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+286	-422	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Heavy juice (-422); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-275) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -275

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -275 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-275) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-270) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -270

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+190	-270	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.6% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 59/94 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/50 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 28/44 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 59/94 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-270) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-288) diff 29.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -288

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+198	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+202	-288	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/62 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter Walks: 34/54 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-288) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~74%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-436) diff 29.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.33
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.33
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/58 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/58 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.33

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Heavy juice (-436) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-202) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -202

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+145	-202	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-202); break-even ~67%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-229) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-229); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-233) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -233

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+166	-233	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-233); break-even ~70%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-272) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-272); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+250	-380	-
DK	0.5	+241	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-350); break-even ~78%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-437) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -437

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -437 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+295	-437	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-437); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-459) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -459

Selected market: Over 23.0% / Under 77.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+308	-459	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Heavy juice (-459) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~82%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Tyler O'Neill Under 0.5 (-245) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -245

Selected market: Over 34.3% / Under 65.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-245); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-425) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 26.1% / Under 73.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Heavy juice (-425); break-even ~81%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-239) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.5% / Under 65.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -239 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+174	-240	-
DK	0.5	+169	-239	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Heavy juice (-239); break-even ~71%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-271) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+187	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+191	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Heavy juice (-271); break-even ~73%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-308) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -308

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+215	-308	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Heavy juice (-308); break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-260) diff 28.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -260

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -260 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+190	-265	-
DK	0.5	+183	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 35/56 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 75/114 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36

⚠ Heavy juice (-260); break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-257) diff 27.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -257

Selected market: Over 33.0% / Under 67.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -257 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+182	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-257) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~72%, requires clean execution

B Add Signal 👀 Watch Signal Batter Walks — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-306) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–✓! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 33/52 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.40 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ Heavy juice (-306) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~75%, requires clean execution

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ⛔ Paused Batter H+R+RBI — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (-159) diff 70.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+116	-
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓––! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 70.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.26
Base projection 2.26 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.327, xSLG 0.435 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/55 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 35/61 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 62/116 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.26

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ HRR trust gate: lineup not confirmed, raw gap 1.1, heavy juice -159 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-159) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 8.0 8.0 (-118) edge 17.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetUS Over 8 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8 -118

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8

Line distribution: 8 at 6 books | 8.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetUS Over 8 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 8.5 +105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8	-120	-	-
BetOnline	8	-119	-	-
BetRivers	8	-118	-	-
BetUS	8	-115	-	Recommended
DK	8	-118	-	Selected
LowVig	8	-117	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	+105	-	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	8.5	+100	-	-
MyBookie	8.5	-104	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	+100	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Cade Povich (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Cade Povich small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only Total — Over 8.5 8.5 (-107) edge 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Over 8.5 -103 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -107

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 8.5

Line distribution: 8.5 at 10 books

Recommended shop: LowVig Over 8.5 -103 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	8.5	-105	-	-
BetOnline	8.5	-106	-	-
BetRivers	8.5	-106	-	-
BetUS	8.5	-110	-	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-105	-	-
DK	8.5	-107	-	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-104	-	-
LowVig	8.5	-103	-	RecommendedRaw Best
MyBookie	8.5	-111	-	-
theScore Bet	8.5	-105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓–✓–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Davis Martin (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Guaranteed Rate Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Stats within normal range

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ F5 Total — 2 play(s) (B 2)

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-132) edge 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (F5) | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: MyBookie Under 5.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -132

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5 at 4 books | 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: MyBookie Under 5.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5	-120	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetUS	5	-120	-110	-
Bovada Direct	5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	5	-130	+100	-
BetMGM	5.5	-102	-130	-
FanDuel	5.5	+102	-132	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	+102	-124	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Home SP TBD
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 96)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

B Add Signal 🔬 Research Only F5 Total — Under 5.5 5.5 (-120) edge 10.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (F5) | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 6 book(s) N/A | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-118	-110	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	5.5	-110	-110	Recommended
BetUS	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	5.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	5.5	-108	-120	Selected
MyBookie	5.5	-107	-114	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–! ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (25)

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Randy Dobnak xFIP 4.39
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.07
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 99)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 109 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ Market status RESEARCH: F5 Total research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

▸ NRFI — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal Add Signal NRFI — NRFI (+130) edge 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +130

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
Grade B: NRFI effective edge 0.0527 after 0.0100 buffer
Matthew Boyd / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

▸ Run Line — 1 play(s) (B 1)

B Add Signal ✅ Add Signal Run Line — Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 (-135) edge 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: 1.5 -135

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 1.5

Recommended shop: LowVig Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5 -129 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✓!–✓ ► Add Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

[IL] Will Klein (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Samuel Sanchez (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Blake Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+18.46/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.1% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 13.1% ≥ 5%
✓ Arizona Diamondbacks home RL 78% (9 bets)
✓ L5 RL 4/5
✓ Odds -135 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: Justin Wrobleski (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Chase Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Arizona Diamondbacks pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 107 blended 35% (team 98)
Los Angeles Dodgers pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 35% (team 107)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.7
Full game weights: starter 67%, bullpen 33%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

▼ Watchlist / No-Play Signals (1010 signal(s))

▸ Pitcher Walks — 16 play(s) (A 1 | C 15)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Pitcher Walks — Randy Dobnak Over 1.5 (-192) diff 39.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -192 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -192

Selected market: Over 61.5% / Under 38.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -192 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-192	+143	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.0891771634172622 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.39 over 5.1 IP (BB% 9.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.3 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.5 IP; outs market 15.4 outs/5.1 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 61.5% / under 38.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 61.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Randy Dobnak: 14 PA | K% 14.3% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .286 | OPS .714
Opponent K profile: composite 21.0%, split 21.6%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.0%, BVP 14.3%/14 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.2%, split 11.4%, L7 10.0%, season 10.8%, BVP 0.0%/14 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/6 (50%) | L20 3/6 (50%) | Season 3/6 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.17 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/6 over 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at B

⚠ Heavy juice (-192); break-even ~66%, requires clean execution

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-136) diff 22.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.8377571374082382 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 5.8 IP (BB% 8.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.92x walks (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.2%, L7 9.0%, season 7.0% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 over 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cam Schlittler Under 1.5 (-169) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+127	-169	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.206440605653716 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.24 over 5.5 IP (BB% 5.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.2% / under 58.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3%, top-6 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.2%, L7 5.9%, season 7.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Ryan Gusto Under 1.5 (-153) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -153

Selected market: Over 43.5% / Under 56.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+115	-153	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.2361670449717923 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 3.8 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.5% / under 56.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.03x walks (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .910
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.8%, L7 30.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.0%, split 11.7%, L7 7.0%, season 8.4%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 1.03x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/14 (71%) | Season 10/14 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.93
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Logan Webb Over 1.5 (+100) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-105	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.733560834221132 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 6.0 IP (BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.7% / under 53.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.9%, L7 11.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-166) diff 15.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -166 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-175	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.1177788864912794 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.38 over 5.0 IP (BB% 8.9%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 41.7% / under 58.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Connor Prielipp: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.3%, L7 29.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 28.6%/14 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, split 11.2%, L7 10.8%, season 10.7%, BVP 7.1%/14 PA (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/15 (67%) | Season 10/15 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 2.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Michael Lorenzen Over 1.5 (-135) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-135	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	-105	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.6640676607764016 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.36 over 4.4 IP (BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 53.7% / under 46.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.04x walks (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.1%, split 8.8%, L7 10.6%, season 8.6%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 1.04x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 13/24 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.31 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cade Povich Over 1.5 (-165) diff 9.3% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-165	+124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6396150616574365 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.35 over 4.8 IP (BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: 0.96x walks (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Povich: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.431
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.7%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.0%, split 10.2%, L7 9.0%, season 8.6%, BVP 0.0%/9 PA (adj 0.96x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 3/5 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Cristian Javier Over 1.5 (-202) diff 8.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -202

Selected market: Over 62.7% / Under 37.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-202	+151	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.6278100717632351 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.42 over 3.7 IP (BB% 9.7%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.7 IP (HIGH; season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.4 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 62.7% / under 37.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 62.7%
Opp batting adj: 1.09x walks (Opp batting (San Diego Padres): wRC+ 96)
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .856
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 17.5%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.9%, split 10.1%, L7 9.5%, season 9.2%, BVP 10.9%/55 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/9 (44%) | L20 4/9 (44%) | Season 4/9 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.67 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/9 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Emerson Hancock Under 1.5 (-141) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3786819125027605 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.27 over 5.2 IP (BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 45.3% / under 54.7%)
Opp batting adj: 0.98x walks (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.7%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 7.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 11/21 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jared Jones Under 1.5 (-195) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.1% / Under 61.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -180 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+146	-195	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.3902618254137056 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.32 over 4.7 IP (BB% 7.4%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 38.1% / under 61.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.9%
Opp batting adj: 0.93x walks (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jared Jones: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.6%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, lineup 20.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 6.6%, L7 7.4%, season 8.5% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — JT Ginn Over 2.5 (+139) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	2.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.6726843432121394 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.46 over 5.4 IP (BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.4 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.1% / under 60.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Opp batting adj: 1.11x walks (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.3%, split 14.3%, L7 6.3%, season 8.8% (adj 1.11x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.22
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Matthew Boyd Under 1.5 (-213) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.2% / Under 63.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -213 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+159	-213	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.4006153068722964 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.29 over 5.7 IP (BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 36.2% / under 63.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.8%
Opp batting adj: 0.82x walks (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 98 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .253 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 18.4%/98 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.0%, split 5.2%, L7 6.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.1%/98 PA (adj 0.82x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 5/10 under 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Justin Wrobleski Under 1.5 (-145) diff 6.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+109	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.4024363379716438 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.5% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.22 over 5.9 IP (BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.7% / under 55.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: 1.08x walks (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.5%, L7 10.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.08x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.5% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Randy Vasquez Over 1.5 (+137) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+137	-183	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.5637870926844761 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.31 over 4.5 IP (BB% 7.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.5% / under 60.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Opp batting adj: 1.12x walks (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5% (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.4%, L7 11.8%, season 9.0% (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_walks Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 4/10 over 1.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Walks — Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 (-206) diff 1.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -206

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+153	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.478690257900361 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.4% (min 20%)
Basis: BB/IP 0.26 over 5.6 IP (BB% 6.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.6 IP (HIGH; season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 37.0% / under 63.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Opp batting adj: 0.99x walks (Opp batting (Minnesota Twins): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.1%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 7.7%, L7 8.7%, season 8.6% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_walks Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Pitcher Walks L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.4% vs 20% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Walks — 160 play(s) (A 2 | B 5 | C 153)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Walks — Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 (-134) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-134	-103	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-110	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-135	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.77 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/112 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 over 0.5 (61%), avg 0.70 | Day Batter Walks: 60/112 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.65

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ian Happ Over 0.5 (-126) diff 17.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -126

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
DK	0.5	-126	-109	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/114 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 24/57 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 55/114 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (+124) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+124	-172	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 50/115 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/57 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 24/58 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 50/115 over 0.5 (44%), avg 0.56

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Michael Busch Over 0.5 (+123) diff 25.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+120	-159	-
DK	0.5	+123	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 54/117 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.51 | Away Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 54/117 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 (+127) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +127

Selected market: Over 40.8% / Under 59.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+127	-177	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 46/118 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/59 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 24/59 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.54 | Day Batter Walks: 46/118 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Alex Bregman Over 0.5 (+126) diff 7.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +131 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +131 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+126	-175	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 48/115 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/59 over 0.5 (46%), avg 0.56 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 48/115 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Walks — Steven Kwan Over 0.5 (+164) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +169 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +169 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 43/108 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/53 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.66 | Away Batter Walks: 16/55 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 43/108 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-515) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -515

Selected market: Over 21.3% / Under 78.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+341	-515	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-568) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -568 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -568

Selected market: Over 20.0% / Under 80.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -568 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+372	-568	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-650) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.3% / Under 81.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -650 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+415	-650	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+360	-800	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-411) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -411

Selected market: Over 24.7% / Under 75.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+270	-420	-
DK	0.5	+279	-411	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-272) diff 50.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -272

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+191	-272	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.4% fallback
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-276) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -276

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+193	-275	-
DK	0.5	+194	-276	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/118 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/118 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-453) diff 50.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -453 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -453

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -453 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 50.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 91/118 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 46/61 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 91/118 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-352) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -352

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+242	-352	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.21
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 92/113 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 48/60 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter Walks: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter Walks: 92/113 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-326) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -326

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	-
DK	0.5	+226	-326	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-587) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -587 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -587

Selected market: Over 19.5% / Under 80.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -587 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+382	-587	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-630) diff 49.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -630

Selected market: Over 18.7% / Under 81.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -630 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+403	-630	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+340	-750	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 7.0% fallback
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-434) diff 49.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -434

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -434 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+293	-434	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/107 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/54 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter Walks: 81/107 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-293) diff 48.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -293

Selected market: Over 30.5% / Under 69.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+196	-275	-
DK	0.5	+205	-293	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.26 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.29
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/99 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/49 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter Walks: 34/50 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34 | Day Batter Walks: 72/99 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryce Harper Over 0.5 (-105) diff 48.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	-105	-132	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	-105	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.74 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 48.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.63
Base projection 0.63 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 58/118 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.63
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/61 over 0.5 (51%), avg 0.61 | Away Batter Walks: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 58/118 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-433) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Adam Frazier Under 0.5 (-540) diff 44.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -540

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+355	-540	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.4% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-393) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -393

Selected market: Over 25.4% / Under 74.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+268	-393	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.88x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-255) diff 43.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -255

Selected market: Over 33.2% / Under 66.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+176	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+180	-255	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 43.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 41/61 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 80/116 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (+107) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
DK	0.5	+107	-148	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.75
Base projection 0.75 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/116 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.75
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/64 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.75 | Away Batter Walks: 28/52 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75 | Day Batter Walks: 63/116 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.75

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-297) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -297

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -297 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+208	-297	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-900) diff 41.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/111 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/56 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 74/111 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (+186) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +186 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +186

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +186 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+181	-250	-
DK	0.5	+186	-264	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 60/116 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 60/116 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 32.8% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 32.8% (1 books) — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 (+124) diff 41.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+124	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: !!✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 41.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.71
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 60/116 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.71
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 29/59 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.79 | Day Batter Walks: 60/116 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.71

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-421) diff 40.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -421

Selected market: Over 24.3% / Under 75.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+280	-420	-
DK	0.5	+285	-421	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.68x
Opp SP BB% 6.8% (walk adj 0.80x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/53 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 25/46 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 62/99 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.43

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mike Trout Over 0.5 (+115) diff 40.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+114	-152	-
DK	0.5	+115	-160	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 40.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.81
Base projection 0.81 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/98 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.81
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 0.73 | Away Batter Walks: 29/50 over 0.5 (58%), avg 0.88 | Day Batter Walks: 54/98 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.81

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-367) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -330 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-367	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP walk adjustment: 1.14x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 80/111 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.35

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-436) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -436

Selected market: Over 23.8% / Under 76.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -436 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+294	-436	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-537) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -537

Selected market: Over 20.7% / Under 79.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -525 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+350	-560	-
DK	0.5	+354	-537	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.3%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-351) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -350 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+240	-360	-
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.30
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/116 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/59 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 85/116 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.30

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-309) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -309

Selected market: Over 29.6% / Under 70.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+215	-309	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.26
Base projection 0.26 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 84/113 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.26
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/58 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26 | Away Batter Walks: 41/55 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 84/113 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.26

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-363) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -363

Selected market: Over 26.8% / Under 73.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -363 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+249	-363	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-425) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.6% fallback
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-327) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -327

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+227	-327	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/105 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/50 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 69/105 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-332) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 88/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.33 | Away Batter Walks: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter Walks: 88/115 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.27

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-236) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.8% / Under 65.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+167	-236	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-390) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -390 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+267	-390	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-418) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -418

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -418 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+284	-418	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-475) diff 38.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 22.5% / Under 77.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -475 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+317	-475	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 38.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-304) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -304

Selected market: Over 29.9% / Under 70.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -295 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+210	-295	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+212	-304	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+220	-330	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-325) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -325

Selected market: Over 28.6% / Under 71.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+226	-325	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-433) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -433 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+292	-433	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.31 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.6% fallback
Base projection 0.32 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-285) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -285

Selected market: Over 31.1% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+200	-285	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.42
Base projection 0.42 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.42
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/57 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-300) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+205	-295	-
DK	0.5	+209	-300	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.32
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/104 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.32
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 37/49 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter Walks: 74/104 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-367) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -367

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -367 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.34
Base projection 0.34 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.34
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 38/54 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.30 | Day Batter Walks: 75/110 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.34

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-535) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -535

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -500 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+353	-535	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+310	-650	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.5% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 (+121) diff 34.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +121

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/107 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.64
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.63 | Away Batter Walks: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.66 | Day Batter Walks: 51/107 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.64

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-301) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -301 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -301

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -301 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+210	-301	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-218) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -218

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -209 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+152	-209	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+156	-218	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-366) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -366

Selected market: Over 26.6% / Under 73.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -366 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+265	-400	-
DK	0.5	+251	-366	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-348) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-348	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jhonny Pereda Under 0.5 (-425) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -425

Selected market: Over 24.8% / Under 75.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Leo Rivas Under 0.5 (-230) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-391) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -391

Selected market: Over 25.5% / Under 74.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -391 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+267	-391	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-355) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-371) diff 34.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -371

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -371 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 34.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 (+181) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +181 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +181

Selected market: Over 33.1% / Under 66.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +181 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+179	-250	-
DK	0.5	+181	-257	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.60
Base projection 0.60 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/119 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.61
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/59 over 0.5 (54%), avg 0.80 | Away Batter Walks: 22/60 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 54/119 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.61

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-455) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -455

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -455 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+305	-480	-
DK	0.5	+306	-455	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-330) diff 32.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -300 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-404) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -404

Selected market: Over 25.0% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+275	-404	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-433) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -433

Selected market: Over 23.9% / Under 76.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -425 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+285	-440	-
DK	0.5	+292	-433	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.4% fallback
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP BB% 8.2% (walk adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-179) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -179 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+135	-182	-
DK	0.5	+129	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ty France Under 0.5 (-234) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -234 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+166	-234	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-306) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -306

Selected market: Over 29.8% / Under 70.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	-
DK	0.5	+213	-306	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-300	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-339) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -339

Selected market: Over 27.9% / Under 72.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -339 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+234	-339	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-348) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -348

Selected market: Over 27.5% / Under 72.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -255 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+240	-348	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-387) diff 31.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -387

Selected market: Over 25.7% / Under 74.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+260	-390	-
DK	0.5	+264	-387	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+250	-425	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.1% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-336) diff 30.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -336

Selected market: Over 28.0% / Under 72.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -335 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+233	-336	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 30.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.27
Base projection 0.27 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 70/96 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.27
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/48 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.29 | Away Batter Walks: 36/48 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter Walks: 70/96 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.27

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-229) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -229 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+163	-229	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-355) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -355

Selected market: Over 27.1% / Under 72.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -355 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+244	-355	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-373) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -373

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -373 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-380	-
DK	0.5	+256	-373	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-402) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -402

Selected market: Over 25.1% / Under 74.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -375 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+255	-390	-
DK	0.5	+273	-402	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-419) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -419

Selected market: Over 24.4% / Under 75.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -419 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+275	-420	-
DK	0.5	+284	-419	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+275	-425	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-465) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -465

Selected market: Over 22.8% / Under 77.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+300	-460	-
DK	0.5	+311	-465	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Alex Call Under 0.5 (-230) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-400) diff 29.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 27.2% / Under 72.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.3% fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+241	-350	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/89 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/43 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 30/46 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 55/89 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-214) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -214

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -214 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-214	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+190	-280	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.28
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 85/109 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 85/109 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.28

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-350) diff 29.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -345 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+242	-350	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 29.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 66/93 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 30/47 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 36/46 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter Walks: 66/93 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyler Soderstrom Over 0.5 (+164) diff 28.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +164 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +164

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +164 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+164	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
BVP vs Erik Miller: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/105 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/48 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.58 | Away Batter Walks: 20/57 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 40/105 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.50

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.3% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-470) diff 28.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -470

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -470 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+315	-470	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-550	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Max Muncy Under 0.5 (-210) diff 28.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -210

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 28.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.80x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/107 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/52 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 28/55 under 0.5 (51%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 65/107 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.45

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-227) diff 27.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -227

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+161	-227	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 71/113 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/56 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 71/113 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.49

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-332) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -332

Selected market: Over 28.3% / Under 71.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -332 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+230	-335	-
DK	0.5	+230	-332	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.37 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.4% (walk adj 0.87x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/55 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 35/59 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-249) diff 25.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -249

Selected market: Over 33.7% / Under 66.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+171	-240	-
DK	0.5	+176	-249	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 25.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/114 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.49 | Away Batter Walks: 34/57 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.51 | Day Batter Walks: 66/114 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-182) diff 24.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -182 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -182

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -182 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+138	-190	-
DK	0.5	+131	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 76/108 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/60 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 35/48 under 0.5 (73%), avg 0.31 | Day Batter Walks: 76/108 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-205) diff 24.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.6% / Under 62.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+147	-205	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 24.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.36
Base projection 0.36 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 58/83 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.36
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 26/44 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 32/39 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter Walks: 58/83 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-179) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -179

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+129	-179	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 62/100 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/54 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41 | Away Batter Walks: 27/46 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.50 | Day Batter Walks: 62/100 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-149) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -149

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+108	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+108	-149	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+500	-1600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 (-169) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -169 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -169

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -169 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+130	-173	-
DK	0.5	+122	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-191) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -191

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+131	-176	-
DK	0.5	+137	-191	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Rogers Under 0.5 (-228) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -228

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+162	-228	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Eli White Under 0.5 (-350) diff 23.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -350

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -350 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+245	-360	-
DK	0.5	+241	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 23.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.2% fallback
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-215) diff 22.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+160	-218	-
DK	0.5	+153	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP BB% 7.6% (walk adj 0.89x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/109 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 36/54 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.50 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 72/109 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-194) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -194

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -194 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+139	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.38 | Away Batter Walks: 36/55 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-168) diff 21.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+118	-159	-
DK	0.5	+121	-168	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP BB% 8.1% (walk adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 74/117 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/55 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.35 | Away Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 74/117 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-231) diff 21.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+164	-231	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 21.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 78/116 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 41/62 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 37/54 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37 | Day Batter Walks: 78/116 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brice Turang Over 0.5 (+117) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +117

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	-
DK	0.5	+117	-162	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+125	-180	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+115	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.58
Base projection 0.58 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.58
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/60 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.55 | Away Batter Walks: 22/51 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 50/111 over 0.5 (45%), avg 0.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-265) diff 20.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -265

Selected market: Over 32.4% / Under 67.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -245 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	-
DK	0.5	+187	-265	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.40 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.53
Base projection 0.53 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 65/115 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.53
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 33/57 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.54 | Away Batter Walks: 32/58 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.52 | Day Batter Walks: 65/115 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.4% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ben Rice Over 0.5 (+135) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+135	-188	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.52
Base projection 0.52 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 39/112 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.52
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/50 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.62 | Away Batter Walks: 20/62 over 0.5 (32%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 39/112 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-243) diff 18.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -243

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+172	-243	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 33/54 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.41 | Day Batter Walks: 70/111 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-320) diff 18.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -320

Selected market: Over 29.0% / Under 71.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -320 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+222	-320	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 18.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.2% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/116 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 34/59 under 0.5 (58%), avg 0.59 | Away Batter Walks: 37/57 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.49 | Day Batter Walks: 71/116 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-262) diff 17.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -262

Selected market: Over 32.6% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+184	-260	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+185	-262	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+180	-265	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 17.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.38
Base projection 0.38 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 77/113 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.38
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40 | Away Batter Walks: 38/56 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 77/113 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-153) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -153

Selected market: Over 44.0% / Under 56.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+110	-153	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-178) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -178

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+128	-178	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-224) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	-
DK	0.5	+159	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-281) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -281

Selected market: Over 31.3% / Under 68.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+197	-281	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+250	-375	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.7%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brandon Lockridge Under 0.5 (-296) diff 15.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -296

Selected market: Over 30.3% / Under 69.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+207	-296	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 15.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.7% fallback
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Trent Grisham Over 0.5 (+107) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +107

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+112	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+107	-148	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+110	-155	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 37/97 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/43 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.53 | Away Batter Walks: 20/54 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.46 | Day Batter Walks: 37/97 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-147) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+106	-147	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-280) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -280

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -275 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+192	-275	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+196	-280	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-330) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -330

Selected market: Over 28.4% / Under 71.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+220	-320	-
DK	0.5	+229	-330	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-416) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -416

Selected market: Over 24.5% / Under 75.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -416 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+282	-416	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+325	-525	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-439) diff 14.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -439

Selected market: Over 23.7% / Under 76.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -439 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+295	-460	-
DK	0.5	+296	-439	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+300	-475	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+270	-500	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.9% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-230) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -230

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -230 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 -230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	Raw BestVerify
DK	0.5	+164	-230	SelectedRecommended
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/85 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 27/44 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.57 | Away Batter Walks: 28/41 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 55/85 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-234) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -234

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -210 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+166	-234	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-374) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -374

Selected market: Over 26.2% / Under 73.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+256	-374	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-405) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -405

Selected market: Over 24.9% / Under 75.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+275	-405	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-471) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -471

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -471 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+330	-530	-
DK	0.5	+315	-471	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jonathan Ornelas Under 0.5 (-513) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -513

Selected market: Over 21.4% / Under 78.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+340	-513	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+285	-450	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+300	-600	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-576) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -576

Selected market: Over 19.8% / Under 80.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -576 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+376	-576	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-700	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-500) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.6% / Under 77.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	+310	-500	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-450	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 8.8% fallback
Base projection 0.33 | production context adj 1.30x
Opp SP BB% 11.4% (walk adj 1.30x)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-251) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -251

Selected market: Over 33.5% / Under 66.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -251 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+178	-251	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-292) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -292

Selected market: Over 30.6% / Under 69.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -290 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+200	-290	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+204	-292	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+200	-300	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-290	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-333) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -333

Selected market: Over 28.2% / Under 71.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -320 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+215	-320	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+231	-333	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-351) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -351

Selected market: Over 27.3% / Under 72.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+242	-351	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-368) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -368

Selected market: Over 26.5% / Under 73.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -310 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+252	-368	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+235	-400	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 9.9% fallback
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-239) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -239

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+170	-239	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+160	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.37
Base projection 0.37 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP BB% 10.0% (walk adj 1.18x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 76/112 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 0.37
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 1/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/57 under 0.5 (67%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 38/55 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.35 | Day Batter Walks: 76/112 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (+104) diff 12.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+106	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+104	-144	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	-105	-135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.9% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.54
Base projection 0.54 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP BB% 8.9% (walk adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 43/104 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.54
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 19/54 over 0.5 (35%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 24/50 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.62 | Day Batter Walks: 43/104 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.9% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-215) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -215

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -215 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+153	-215	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/93 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/45 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 31/48 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.38 | Day Batter Walks: 59/93 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-222) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -222

Selected market: Over 36.0% / Under 64.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -195 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+158	-222	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+135	-195	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.8% fallback
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-322) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -322

Selected market: Over 28.8% / Under 71.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -322 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+235	-345	-
DK	0.5	+224	-322	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+230	-350	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+210	-350	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.8% fallback
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.2%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Tyrone Taylor Under 0.5 (-478) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -478

Selected market: Over 22.4% / Under 77.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -400 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+319	-478	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+260	-400	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team BB% 10.8% fallback
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 9.2% (walk adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 77.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-259) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+183	-259	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+210	-310	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.46
Base projection 0.46 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.46
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 43/61 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.36 | Away Batter Walks: 33/55 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.56 | Day Batter Walks: 76/116 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Willson Contreras Over 0.5 (+126) diff 10.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +133 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +133 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+133	-179	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+126	-175	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.44
Base projection 0.44 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/106 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 0.44
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 23/55 over 0.5 (42%), avg 0.45 | Away Batter Walks: 19/51 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 42/106 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 (+148) diff 10.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +148

Selected market: Over 37.4% / Under 62.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+148	-207	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+155	-225	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 10.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP walk adjustment: 1.15x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 62.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/110 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 21/54 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.44 | Away Batter Walks: 24/56 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 45/110 over 0.5 (41%), avg 0.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-223) diff 9.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.9% / Under 64.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+163	-225	-
DK	0.5	+159	-223	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.39
Base projection 0.39 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP BB% 9.9% (walk adj 1.16x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/108 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.39
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/51 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 39/57 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/108 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (+155) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.4% / Under 63.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+154	-209	-
DK	0.5	+155	-217	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+145	-215	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.51
Base projection 0.51 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.51
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 28/57 over 0.5 (49%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 21/56 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.43 | Day Batter Walks: 49/113 over 0.5 (43%), avg 0.51

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-268) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -268

Selected market: Over 32.2% / Under 67.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -268 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+189	-268	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 67.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-271) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -271

Selected market: Over 32.0% / Under 68.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -270 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+197	-280	-
DK	0.5	+191	-271	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+185	-270	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-275	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.35
Base projection 0.35 | production context adj 1.28x
Opp SP BB% 10.9% (walk adj 1.28x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/110 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.35
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 38/53 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.42 | Day Batter Walks: 73/110 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Manny Machado Over 0.5 (+100) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+100	-139	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/115 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 4/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 22/57 over 0.5 (39%), avg 0.47 | Away Batter Walks: 22/58 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48 | Day Batter Walks: 44/115 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-237) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.7% / Under 65.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+165	-230	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+168	-237	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+165	-240	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+165	-250	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.45
Base projection 0.45 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.0% (walk adj 0.94x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP walk adjustment: 1.08x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 74/114 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.45
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 9/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/56 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.57 | Day Batter Walks: 74/114 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-193) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -193

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -193 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	-
DK	0.5	+138	-193	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.47
Base projection 0.47 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP walk adjustment: 0.85x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.47
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/54 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 30/58 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.55 | Day Batter Walks: 70/112 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.47

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 (+125) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+125	-170	-
DK	0.5	+125	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+130	-185	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.43
Base projection 0.43 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP BB% 10.6% (walk adj 1.25x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.43
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 20/58 over 0.5 (34%), avg 0.43 | Away Batter Walks: 22/55 over 0.5 (40%), avg 0.44 | Day Batter Walks: 42/113 over 0.5 (37%), avg 0.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-231) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -231

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -231 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+169	-235	-
DK	0.5	+164	-231	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+175	-255	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.40
Base projection 0.40 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.40
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/53 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.42 | Away Batter Walks: 39/56 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Day Batter Walks: 74/109 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-174) diff 7.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -174

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+128	-173	-
DK	0.5	+125	-174	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+115	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+125	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 7.7% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.41
Base projection 0.41 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP BB% 9.7% (walk adj 1.14x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 75/116 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.41
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 35/57 under 0.5 (61%), avg 0.46 | Away Batter Walks: 40/59 under 0.5 (68%), avg 0.36 | Day Batter Walks: 75/116 under 0.5 (65%), avg 0.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.7% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-229) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -229

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 0.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+163	-229	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.47 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.62
Base projection 0.62 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 5.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 63/114 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.62
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 31/57 under 0.5 (54%), avg 0.60 | Away Batter Walks: 32/57 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Day Batter Walks: 63/114 under 0.5 (55%), avg 0.62

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-172) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -172

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+124	-172	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+120	-170	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.6% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.50
Base projection 0.50 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP BB% 8.3% (walk adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 67/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.50
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 40/57 under 0.5 (70%), avg 0.39 | Away Batter Walks: 27/54 under 0.5 (50%), avg 0.61 | Day Batter Walks: 67/111 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.50

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Xavier Edwards Over 0.5 (+165) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 0.5 +165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +165

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 0.5 +165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+156	-213	-
DK	0.5	+165	-232	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-225	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.52 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.48
Base projection 0.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP BB% 9.1% (walk adj 1.07x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_walks Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 45/118 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.48
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 17/59 over 0.5 (29%), avg 0.37 | Away Batter Walks: 28/59 over 0.5 (48%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 45/118 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-200) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+145	-197	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	0.5	+143	-200	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+140	-200	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.65
Base projection 0.65 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP BB% 6.1% (walk adj 0.75x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.65
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 3/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 25/55 under 0.5 (46%), avg 0.71 | Away Batter Walks: 34/58 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.59 | Day Batter Walks: 59/113 under 0.5 (52%), avg 0.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-286) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -286

Selected market: Over 31.0% / Under 69.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -280 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	0.5	+201	-286	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+225	-340	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+185	-280	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 51/86 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-195) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -195

Selected market: Over 38.7% / Under 61.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+149	-200	-
DK	0.5	+140	-195	Selected
Fanatics	0.5	+150	-215	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+135	-190	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.48 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.56
Base projection 0.56 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP BB% 7.2% (walk adj 0.85x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP walk adjustment: 1.02x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 61.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 51/86 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.56
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 24/43 under 0.5 (56%), avg 0.65 | Away Batter Walks: 27/43 under 0.5 (63%), avg 0.47 | Day Batter Walks: 51/86 under 0.5 (59%), avg 0.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Walks — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-224) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.8% / Under 64.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 0.5 -224 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	+172	-240	-
DK	0.5	+160	-224	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	0.5	+170	-245	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-240	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [individual]
Basis: BB/G 0.49
Base projection 0.49 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP BB% 8.6% (walk adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 64.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_walks Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 72/117 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.49
Prop trend: Batter Walks L10: 8/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Walks: 37/62 under 0.5 (60%), avg 0.52 | Away Batter Walks: 35/55 under 0.5 (64%), avg 0.45 | Day Batter Walks: 72/117 under 0.5 (62%), avg 0.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 30% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter H+R+RBI — 204 play(s) (A 16 | B 46 | C 142)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (-143) diff 85.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+109	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.32x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.458, xSLG 0.637 (77 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.13 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.11 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (-155) diff 84.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-152	+113	-
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 84.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.24
Base projection 2.24 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291, xSLG 0.347 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/110 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.24
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/54 over 1.5 (68%), avg 2.44 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 62/110 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.24

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR trust gate: raw gap 1.3, heavy juice -155 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-155) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (-156) diff 78.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.0% / Under 43.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -156 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	-
DK	1.5	-156	+118	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-165	+130	-
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	+120	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 78.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.313 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/5 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/60 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.55 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.14

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ HRR trust gate: consensus lean 60%, raw gap 1.2, weak consensus 60% without extra raw cushion, heavy juice -156 -- B risk note

⚠ Heavy juice (-156) + role/script uncertainty; break-even ~61%, requires clean execution

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (-129) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -129 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.29
Base projection 2.29 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.307 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/102 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.60 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/51 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.71 | Away Batter HRR: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 53/102 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.29

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (-118) diff 67.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 67.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.349, xSLG 0.444 (70 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/112 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/50 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.40 | Day Batter HRR: 56/112 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.28

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at B

⚠ Market status PAUSED: Batter H+R+RBI paused -- downgraded to monitor/derisk

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (-155) diff 46.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-155	+117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 46.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.290, xSLG 0.341 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 51/100 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 22/46 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 51/100 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 46.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (-112) diff 40.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.475, xSLG 0.747 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter HRR: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter HRR: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (-133) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-133	+100	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (-163) diff 37.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	-159	+119	Recommended
DK	1.5	-163	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.361, xSLG 0.430 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.75 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (-123) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.706 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter HRR: 51/116 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (-158) diff 33.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.348, xSLG 0.556 (27 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 51/114 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.99 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 51/114 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Steven Kwan Over 1.5 (-150) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-145	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306, xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Day Batter HRR: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (-132) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -132

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-132	-101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Salvador Perez Over 1.5 (-134) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.236, xSLG 0.314 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter HRR: 44/109 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (-126) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

A Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 2.5 (-109) diff 2.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	2.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	2.5	-120	-112	-
DK	2.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.57 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 2.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283, xSLG 0.385 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 48/118 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/59 over 2.5 (42%), avg 2.42 | Away Batter HRR: 23/59 over 2.5 (39%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 48/118 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-163) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -163 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-163	+122	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.44
Base projection 2.44 | production context adj 1.19x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.380, xSLG 0.556 (50 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/113 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.44
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/61 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 36/52 over 1.5 (69%), avg 2.79 | Day Batter HRR: 69/113 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.44

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (-119) diff 65.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 65.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 66/111 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.39
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.51 | Day Batter HRR: 66/111 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.39

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 65.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.98 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (-117) diff 63.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 63.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.253, xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/107 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 53/107 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 63.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 63.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (-159) diff 61.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-159	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 61.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.37
Base projection 2.37 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276, xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/83 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.37
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/44 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 26/39 over 1.5 (67%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 49/83 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 61.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (-118) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.353, xSLG 0.370 (39 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 68/119 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/59 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.37 | Away Batter HRR: 31/60 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 68/119 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 60.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 60.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.90 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (-136) diff 59.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -136

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+104	-
DK	1.5	-136	+102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.26x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.438 (55 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/93 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/45 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Day Batter HRR: 42/93 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 (+102) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (-137) diff 54.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.0% / Under 46.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -137 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-137	+103	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318, xSLG 0.396 (47 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 36/57 over 1.5 (63%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 65/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (-163) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-164	+122	-
DK	1.5	-163	+122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.99
Base projection 1.99 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289, xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.99
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 31/54 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.33 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.99

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (-137) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-137	+104	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.299 (73 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 62/118 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/59 over 1.5 (58%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 62/118 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (-112) diff 52.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/114 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter HRR: 59/114 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 52.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (-119) diff 50.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.11
Base projection 2.11 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.385, xSLG 0.499 (70 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 61/117 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.11
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.81 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 61/117 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+100) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.487 (160 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/112 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (-125) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.07
Base projection 2.07 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.354, xSLG 0.487 (160 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.07
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.41 | Away Batter HRR: 27/56 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter HRR: 58/112 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (-123) diff 48.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.336, xSLG 0.421 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 57/112 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.39 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter HRR: 57/112 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (-140) diff 40.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.86
Base projection 1.86 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.424, xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/111 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.86
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.17 | Day Batter HRR: 54/111 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — William Contreras Over 1.5 (-126) diff 38.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.272, xSLG 0.353 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/108 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/60 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.07 | Away Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 59/108 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (-113) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.5% / Under 50.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-113	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.08
Base projection 2.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.460, xSLG 0.627 (11 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/107 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/47 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter HRR: 36/60 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.28 | Day Batter HRR: 58/107 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 (-143) diff 30.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-143	+108	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.95 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.342 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.54 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Braden Montgomery Over 1.5 (+119) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Colson Montgomery Over 1.5 (+121) diff 29.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +121

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.341, xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/53 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.88

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Bo Bichette Over 1.5 (-115) diff 28.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-115	-115	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.93 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 59/117 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.00 | Day Batter HRR: 59/117 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 (-109) diff 27.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.304, xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/97 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/51 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.73 | Away Batter HRR: 25/46 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 51/97 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (-130) diff 26.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	SelectedRaw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.25x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Chase Meidroth Over 1.5 (-120) diff 26.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Base projection 2.01 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.243, xSLG 0.288 (57 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 61/113 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.05 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 61/113 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Masyn Winn Over 1.5 (-129) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -129

Selected market: Over 52.6% / Under 47.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-129	-103	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 56/109 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 56/109 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.68

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 (-150) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -150

Selected market: Over 56.1% / Under 43.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-157	+117	-
DK	1.5	-150	+113	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (-105) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Trent Grisham Over 1.5 (-114) diff 23.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/97 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.44 | Day Batter HRR: 42/97 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 (+108) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 41/85 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/44 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.61 | Away Batter HRR: 20/41 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.93 | Day Batter HRR: 41/85 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (-116) diff 18.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-116	-114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.78 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.228, xSLG 0.273 (80 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.84 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/62 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter HRR: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (-124) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -124

Selected market: Over 51.7% / Under 48.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-136	+101	-
DK	1.5	-124	-107	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (-123) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-123	-108	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Jimmy Crooks Over 1.5 (-109) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.7% / Under 51.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-109	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Bregman Under 2.5 (-158) diff 14.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 2.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -158

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 2.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-165	+125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-170	+130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	2.5	+117	-157	Recommended
DK	2.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.15 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 14.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316, xSLG 0.404 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 2.1 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 82/115 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 46/59 under 2.5 (78%), avg 1.68 | Away Batter HRR: 36/56 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.25 | Day Batter HRR: 82/115 under 2.5 (71%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (-121) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-121	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (-134) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-134	+101	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (-122) diff 11.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-124	-107	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (-126) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -126

Selected market: Over 52.1% / Under 47.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-127	-105	-
DK	1.5	-126	-105	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (-158) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -158 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+125	-
Caesars	1.5	-170	+124	-
DK	1.5	-158	+119	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	2.5	+130	-170	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 (+111) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 (+118) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Massey Over 1.5 (-103) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-136	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (-114) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (-145) diff 4.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-150	+112	-
DK	1.5	-145	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter H+R+RBI — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (-121) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-130	-103	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Alvarez Over 1.5 (+131) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.60
Base projection 2.60 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/116 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 64/116 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.60

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eddy Alvarez Over 1.5 (+130) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.60
Base projection 2.60 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 64/116 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 41/59 over 1.5 (70%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 64/116 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.60

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 64.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.97 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (-111) diff 59.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-120	-112	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.278, xSLG 0.432 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/113 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/60 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter HRR: 59/113 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-158) diff 59.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	-
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-150	+120	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340, xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 34/58 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.48 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 59.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 59.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (-121) diff 58.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.1% / Under 48.9%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -121 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -121; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-121	-110	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 2.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 58.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.332, xSLG 0.467 (61 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/108 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.43 | Day Batter HRR: 53/108 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.16

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 58.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (-109) diff 55.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -109

Selected market: Over 48.8% / Under 51.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -109 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-109	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.35
Base projection 2.35 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.425, xSLG 0.598 (106 PA, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/94 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.35
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/50 over 1.5 (64%), avg 2.58 | Away Batter HRR: 24/44 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 56/94 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (-121) diff 55.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 51.2% / Under 48.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-121	-109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.16
Base projection 2.16 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.410, xSLG 0.520 (105 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 53/89 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.16
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/43 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 32/46 over 1.5 (70%), avg 2.46 | Day Batter HRR: 53/89 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ildemaro Vargas Over 1.5 (+106) diff 55.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 55.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.445, xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 58/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/57 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.28 | Away Batter HRR: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.97 | Day Batter HRR: 58/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 55.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 55.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (-130) diff 54.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.8% / Under 47.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-129	-104	-
DK	1.5	-130	-102	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.38
Base projection 2.38 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.315, xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/108 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.38
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.12 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/52 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.08 | Away Batter HRR: 31/56 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 58/108 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+102) diff 54.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 54.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Base projection 2.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.486, xSLG 0.678 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 65/113 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 34/56 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.34 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 65/113 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 54.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.81 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (-122) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -122

Selected market: Over 51.3% / Under 48.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-122	-109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.401, xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.27

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (-106) diff 53.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -106

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 -106; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	-106	-125	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 53.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.401, xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 63/111 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/56 over 1.5 (66%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter HRR: 63/111 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.27

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 53.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (-155) diff 51.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-155	+117	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.19
Base projection 2.19 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.368, xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/106 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.19
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.24 | Away Batter HRR: 25/51 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 54/106 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (-105) diff 51.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 51.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.538 (157 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 68/117 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.22 | Away Batter HRR: 36/58 over 1.5 (62%), avg 2.47 | Day Batter HRR: 68/117 over 1.5 (58%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 51.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 51.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (-118) diff 48.8% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-118	-112	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 48.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.28
Base projection 2.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.268, xSLG 0.351 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 63/116 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.28
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/59 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.39 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 63/116 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 48.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (-142) diff 44.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-143	+107	-
DK	1.5	-142	+107	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.277, xSLG 0.361 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 66/116 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 35/59 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 66/116 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.09

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Bauers Over 1.5 (+101) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.18
Base projection 2.18 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.275, xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 49/104 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter HRR: 27/50 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.42 | Day Batter HRR: 49/104 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (-110) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.470, xSLG 0.635 (40 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/98 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/48 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter HRR: 26/50 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.38 | Day Batter HRR: 47/98 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Zach Neto Over 1.5 (+104) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.98
Base projection 1.98 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xwOBA 0.414, xSLG 0.606 (37 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 57/114 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.98
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter HRR: 32/59 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 57/114 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (-112) diff 41.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.23
Base projection 2.23 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.388, xSLG 0.532 (81 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 56/111 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.26 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 56/111 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+106) diff 40.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 2.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 40.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.303, xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/99 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 32/49 over 1.5 (65%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 55/99 over 1.5 (56%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 40.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (-112) diff 39.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -112

Selected market: Over 49.4% / Under 50.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-112	-118	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/115 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 56/115 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (-115) diff 39.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 39.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.377, xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/54 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter HRR: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 39.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 (+107) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+107	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Lowe Over 1.5 (+128) diff 38.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +128 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-171	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.34
Base projection 2.34 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.205, xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 59/110 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.34
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.32 | Away Batter HRR: 29/53 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.36 | Day Batter HRR: 59/110 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.34

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (-110) diff 37.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 -110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.06 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 37.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.329, xSLG 0.386 (154 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/114 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 60/114 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 37.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 36.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.7% / Under 50.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-114	-117	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.440, xSLG 0.649 (44 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.3%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 61/107 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/56 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.09 | Away Batter HRR: 28/51 over 1.5 (55%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter HRR: 61/107 over 1.5 (57%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 50.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Liam Hicks Over 1.5 (+100) diff 36.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +100; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-125	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.252, xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 53/105 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/50 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.06 | Away Batter HRR: 30/55 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.20 | Day Batter HRR: 53/105 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 (+110) diff 36.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.6% / Under 55.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+110	-145	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.364, xSLG 0.481 (119 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 52/111 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.61 | Day Batter HRR: 52/111 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (-102) diff 36.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 54/114 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/58 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter HRR: 28/56 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.23 | Day Batter HRR: 54/114 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (-127) diff 35.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -127

Selected market: Over 52.2% / Under 47.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-140	+105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-127	-105	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.17
Base projection 2.17 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.263, xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 52.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/113 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 2.17
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 35/58 over 1.5 (60%), avg 2.31 | Day Batter HRR: 60/113 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+100) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.14
Base projection 2.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.338, xSLG 0.389 (54 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 56/110 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 56/110 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (-119) diff 33.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 50.7% / Under 49.3%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-121	-110	-
DK	1.5	-119	-112	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.91
Base projection 1.91 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.235, xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/115 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.91
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter HRR: 55/115 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (-101) diff 33.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.01
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.271, xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 55/108 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.01
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter HRR: 55/108 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.01

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (-118) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -118

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-118	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.266, xSLG 0.346 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 49/113 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter HRR: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter HRR: 49/113 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 (-117) diff 29.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.265, xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/110 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter HRR: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.29 | Day Batter HRR: 55/110 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.93

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 (-105) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 -105; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-105	-126	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Griffin Conine Over 1.5 (+100) diff 29.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.94 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 29.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 29.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carson Benge Over 1.5 (+104) diff 28.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-104	-129	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.97
Base projection 1.97 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.350, xSLG 0.498 (51 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.97
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (-107) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.269, xSLG 0.347 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter HRR: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.14 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (-108) diff 26.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.90 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.90
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/93 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.90
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/47 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 20/46 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.63 | Day Batter HRR: 46/93 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.90

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.00
Base projection 2.00 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.418, xSLG 0.531 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/117 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/55 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.15 | Away Batter HRR: 32/62 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter HRR: 61/117 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+100) diff 24.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/111 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.67 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter HRR: 24/54 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 51/111 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Agustín Ramírez Over 1.5 (+108) diff 24.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 24.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.87
Base projection 1.87 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389, xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/86 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.87
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/43 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter HRR: 19/43 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 41/86 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.87

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 24.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (-111) diff 23.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -111

Selected market: Over 49.1% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-115	-115	-
DK	1.5	-111	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.370, xSLG 0.468 (55 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Erik Miller: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 56/105 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.19 | Away Batter HRR: 31/57 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 56/105 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Karros Over 1.5 (+101) diff 22.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.6% / Under 53.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-106	-127	-
DK	1.5	+101	-133	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.84 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.208, xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 49/109 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/53 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.77 | Away Batter HRR: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter HRR: 49/109 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.72

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+101) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Geraldo Perdomo Over 1.5 (-102) diff 21.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.3% / Under 52.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	-108	-124	-
DK	1.5	-102	-129	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.82 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xwOBA 0.365, xSLG 0.410 (159 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 52/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.66 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 52/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Sanoja Over 1.5 (-103) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-103	-129	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.15x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Carter Jensen Over 1.5 (-110) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.301 (67 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Away Batter HRR: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 51/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Justin Crawford Over 1.5 (+104) diff 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Muncy Over 1.5 (+105) diff 17.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.9% / Under 54.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (24)

Proj 1.76 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.302, xSLG 0.360 (72 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 10 PA | 1/10 | HR 0 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .200
BVP production adjustment: 0.94x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/107 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/52 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter HRR: 28/55 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.18 | Day Batter HRR: 48/107 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Sam Antonacci Over 1.5 (+126) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.74 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.262, xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/96 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/48 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 22/48 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92 | Day Batter HRR: 47/96 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Michael Busch Under 2.5 (-142) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	2.5	+111	-148	-
DK	2.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.12 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357, xSLG 0.452 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 40/59 under 2.5 (68%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter HRR: 39/58 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 79/117 under 2.5 (68%), avg 1.89

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 (+106) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.69
Base projection 1.69 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.297, xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 45/108 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.69
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/51 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.65 | Away Batter HRR: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter HRR: 45/108 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.69

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jarren Duran Over 1.5 (-158) diff 13.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	1.5	-154	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-158	+119	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-160	+125	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.81
Base projection 1.81 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261, xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/109 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.81
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 26/54 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter HRR: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 50/109 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.81

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 (-108) diff 13.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-109	-122	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 (+110) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+107	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.96
Base projection 1.96 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.247, xSLG 0.310 (45 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (4) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 57/115 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 28/57 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter HRR: 57/115 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Wilyer Abreu Under 2.5 (-141) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -141

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	2.5	-115	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	2.5	-102	-130	-
DK	2.5	+106	-141	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.17 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.10
Base projection 2.10 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.330, xSLG 0.465 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 75/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/58 under 2.5 (67%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter HRR: 36/55 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 75/113 under 2.5 (66%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Marcus Semien Under 1.5 (-166) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.167, xSLG 0.194 (75 PA, adj 0.91x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/99 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 35/49 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter HRR: 28/50 under 1.5 (56%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter HRR: 63/99 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 2.5 (-136) diff 13.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	2.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	2.5	+100	-134	-
DK	2.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.17 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 13.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.12
Base projection 2.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363, xSLG 0.485 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/99 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.12
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 31/53 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.25 | Away Batter HRR: 31/46 under 2.5 (67%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter HRR: 62/99 under 2.5 (63%), avg 2.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.3% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Sullivan Over 1.5 (+126) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Josh Naylor Over 1.5 (+120) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.333, xSLG 0.386 (52 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter HRR: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter HRR: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Willy Adames Over 1.5 (+114) diff 12.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xwOBA 0.288, xSLG 0.391 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.40 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 23/53 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter HRR: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.05 | Day Batter HRR: 51/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Chandler Simpson Over 1.5 (+106) diff 12.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.230, xSLG 0.289 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.70 | Away Batter HRR: 25/52 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter HRR: 54/109 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.74

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 2.5 (-160) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+110	-148	-
DK	2.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.21 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.20
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.260, xSLG 0.364 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 70/112 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +1.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 36/59 under 2.5 (61%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter HRR: 34/53 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter HRR: 70/112 under 2.5 (62%), avg 2.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 (-113) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -113

Selected market: Over 49.6% / Under 50.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-118	-113	-
DK	1.5	-113	-117	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.93
Base projection 1.93 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.305, xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 51/109 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.93
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter HRR: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.16 | Day Batter HRR: 51/109 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.93

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jakob Marsee Over 1.5 (+108) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.373, xSLG 0.466 (40 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 42/113 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter HRR: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter HRR: 42/113 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.42

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brayan Rocchio Over 1.5 (+107) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +107 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.192, xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 54/115 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 0/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.20 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter HRR: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter HRR: 54/115 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 6 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 (+117) diff 10.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+112	-150	-
DK	2.5	+117	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.77 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 10.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.39
Base projection 2.39 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.406, xSLG 0.599 (61 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.48
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.82 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 20/49 over 2.5 (41%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 30/58 over 2.5 (52%), avg 2.66 | Day Batter HRR: 50/107 over 2.5 (47%), avg 2.48

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.8% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy White Under 1.5 (-139) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -139

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeff McNeil Under 1.5 (-147) diff 10.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-150	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.34 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 (+102) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	-
DK	1.5	+102	-136	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.54
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.222, xSLG 0.231 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.54
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter HRR: 29/58 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter HRR: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.54

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Robert Jr. Under 1.5 (-152) diff 10.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (-108) diff 10.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-115	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	-120	-120	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-137) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -137

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 1.5 -130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brett Bateman Under 1.5 (-166) diff 9.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -166

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+124	-166	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ivan Herrera Under 2.5 (-168) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -168

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	2.5	+119	-159	-
DK	2.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+120	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.27 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326, xSLG 0.398 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 45/61 under 2.5 (74%), avg 1.67 | Away Batter HRR: 35/55 under 2.5 (64%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter HRR: 80/116 under 2.5 (69%), avg 1.94

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cole Young Over 1.5 (+122) diff 8.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.3% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.287, xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/61 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter HRR: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyrone Taylor Over 1.5 (-114) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Miguel Amaya Over 1.5 (-107) diff 8.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -107

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-107	-124	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (-102) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -102 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-115) diff 8.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 (+110) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.62 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.0% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.239, xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 57/116 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.63 | Away Batter HRR: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter HRR: 57/116 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.73

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-125) diff 7.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-106	-125	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.38 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.87x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alec Burleson Over 2.5 (+111) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	2.5	+110	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+108	-143	-
DK	2.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	2.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.67 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.27
Base projection 2.27 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322, xSLG 0.425 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/116 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.27
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 22/62 over 2.5 (36%), avg 1.92 | Away Batter HRR: 28/54 over 2.5 (52%), avg 2.67 | Day Batter HRR: 50/116 over 2.5 (43%), avg 2.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Seiya Suzuki Under 2.5 (-150) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 2.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -150

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 2.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Selected
BetOnline	2.5	+105	-145	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.33 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.30
Base projection 2.30 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.249, xSLG 0.311 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/101 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.30
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 30/51 under 2.5 (59%), avg 2.27 | Away Batter HRR: 29/50 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.32 | Day Batter HRR: 59/101 under 2.5 (58%), avg 2.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryan Torres Over 1.5 (-108) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.6% / Under 51.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-107	-125	-
DK	1.5	-108	-122	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jose Fermin Over 1.5 (-108) diff 6.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-108	-123	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (-146) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -146

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-145	+110	-
DK	1.5	-146	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-
BetMGM	2.5	+125	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.7 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (-135) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.7% / Under 46.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+115	-
Caesars	1.5	-139	+105	-
DK	1.5	-135	+102	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ben Rortvedt Over 1.5 (+129) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +129

Selected market: Over 40.9% / Under 59.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Recommended
DK	1.5	+129	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tim Tawa Over 1.5 (+130) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Alex Call Over 1.5 (+125) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 17 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Lombard Jr. Over 1.5 (+128) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jared Triolo Over 1.5 (+122) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+122	-162	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.61 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ernie Clement Over 1.5 (+107) diff 5.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.8% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.233, xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 60/115 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 33/58 over 1.5 (57%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter HRR: 27/57 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter HRR: 60/115 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.85

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Lawrence Butler Under 1.5 (-160) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -160

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ezequiel Tovar Under 1.5 (-156) diff 5.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.4% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.41
Base projection 1.41 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.311, xSLG 0.480 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.41
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.59 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter HRR: 33/53 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.41

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (-110) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.02x
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Schwarber Over 2.5 (+104) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -140 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	Recommended
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.63 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.06
Base projection 2.06 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.308, xSLG 0.426 (81 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 2 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 40/112 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 2.06
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 2.5; recent avg down -0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 21/58 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.29 | Away Batter HRR: 19/54 over 2.5 (35%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter HRR: 40/112 over 2.5 (36%), avg 2.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 10 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Osleivis Basabe Under 1.5 (-163) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	+123	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-130) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -130

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-133) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -133

Selected market: Over 46.7% / Under 53.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	+100	-133	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Daulton Varsho Under 1.5 (-140) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+106	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.43
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 67/104 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter HRR: 29/49 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter HRR: 67/104 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.43

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cam Smith Under 1.5 (-163) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 68/116 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +1.19 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 39/59 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter HRR: 29/57 under 1.5 (51%), avg 1.88 | Day Batter HRR: 68/116 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Lara Over 1.5 (+103) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+111) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Javier Baez Over 1.5 (+117) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Max Clark Over 1.5 (+127) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +127

Selected market: Over 41.2% / Under 58.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +127 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+127	-169	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 9 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Patrick Bailey Under 1.5 (-157) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -157

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-155	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Angel Genao Under 1.5 (-159) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -159

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 (+110) diff 3.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: run-production lineup role (5) (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Rafael Flores Over 1.5 (+131) diff 3.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-160	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 8 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Bryce Eldridge Under 1.5 (-148) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+100	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Eli White Under 1.5 (-119) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -119

Selected market: Over 49.3% / Under 50.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-112	-119	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Rogers Under 1.5 (-138) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -138

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -137 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (-131) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 53.0% / Under 47.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-145	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-135	-105	-
Caesars	1.5	-137	+103	-
DK	1.5	-131	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Ty France Over 1.5 (-116) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.2% / Under 49.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	-116	-114	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-115	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (-114) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Luis Rengifo Over 1.5 (+124) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.7% / Under 58.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+116	-154	-
DK	1.5	+124	-166	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 (+108) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 44.9% / Under 55.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +108 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-144	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 (+114) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-152	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dylan Beavers Over 1.5 (+116) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Leody Taveras Over 1.5 (+131) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Tyler O'Neill Over 1.5 (+115) diff 2.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 7 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gary Sanchez Over 1.5 (+105) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+135	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+105	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 3 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-121) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-135	+105	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	1.5	-125	-106	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-2 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-134) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-118	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-110	-121	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-110	-120	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-1 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Jonah Heim Under 1.5 (-142) diff 1.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -142

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+100	-130	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
HRR opportunity: top-3 lineup role (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 (+123) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is DK Over 1.5 +123; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+120	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	SelectedRaw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Dominic Canzone Over 1.5 (+116) diff 1.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+105	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gleyber Torres Under 1.5 (-121) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -121

Selected market: Over 48.9% / Under 51.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-120	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-110	-121	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-120	-110	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Denzer Guzman Over 1.5 (+111) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +111

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +111 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +111; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-148	Raw BestVerify
DK	1.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 11 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Yordan Alvarez Under 2.5 (-151) diff 1.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 4 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 1.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	-155	+115	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-150	-
Caesars	2.5	+109	-145	-
DK	2.5	+114	-151	Selected
theScore Bet	2.5	+110	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.47 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 1.1% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 2.60
Base projection 2.60 | production context adj 0.95x
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 2.3 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 61/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 5/10 under 2.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 24/59 under 2.5 (41%), avg 3.00 | Away Batter HRR: 37/57 under 2.5 (65%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter HRR: 61/116 under 2.5 (53%), avg 2.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.1% vs 50% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Brandon Lockridge Under 1.5 (-174) diff 1.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.48 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (8) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — George Springer Under 1.5 (-125) diff 0.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -125

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 50.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -125 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.9% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.231, xSLG 0.235 (47 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/87 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 19/48 under 1.5 (40%), avg 1.94 | Away Batter HRR: 24/39 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.59 | Day Batter HRR: 43/87 under 1.5 (49%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Gavin Sheets Under 1.5 (-161) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+121	-161	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+120	-150	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.49 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.240, xSLG 0.283 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 37/53 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter HRR: 34/56 under 1.5 (61%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter HRR: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Taylor Ward Over 1.5 (+107) diff 0.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 1.5 +108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 1.5 +108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-130	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+107	-142	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.7% [individual]
Basis: H+R+RBI/G 1.71
Base projection 1.71 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.221, xSLG 0.263 (35 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_hits_runs_rbis Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 51/116 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Batter HRR L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.91 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HRR: 27/64 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter HRR: 24/52 over 1.5 (46%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter HRR: 51/116 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.71

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Kyle Isbel Over 1.5 (+133) diff 0.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +133

Selected market: Over 40.1% / Under 59.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+132	-176	-
DK	1.5	+133	-178	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (9) (adj 0.95x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.9%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

⚠ HRR cluster: 12 correlated overs from same game (cap=2)

⚠ HRR cluster exposure: consider derisking correlated overs

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter H+R+RBI — Edgar Quero Under 1.5 (-164) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -164

Selected market: Over 41.9% / Under 58.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+123	-164	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.50 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
HRR opportunity: lower lineup role (7) (adj 0.98x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Total Bases — 277 play(s) (A 1 | B 26 | C 227 | D 23)

A Lean Signal - Small Stake ◔ Lean Signal - Small Stake Batter Total Bases — Randal Grichuk Over 0.5 (-155) diff 209.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -148 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-148	+111	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heriberto Hernandez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 285.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 285.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 (-165) diff 268.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 73/115 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.73

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ildemaro Vargas Over 0.5 (-175) diff 268.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.84 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 268.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.73
Base projection 1.73 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/115 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.73
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/57 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 73/115 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.73

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 268% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach Neto Over 0.5 (-165) diff 252.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.76 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 252.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.66
Base projection 1.66 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.606 (37 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/114 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.66
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/55 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 73/114 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.66

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 253% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Lowe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 242.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.94

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 (-175) diff 238.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 239% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colson Montgomery Over 0.5 (-135) diff 238.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +182; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 63/110 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Braden Montgomery Over 0.5 (-155) diff 238.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 63/110 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/53 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.84 | Day Batter TB: 63/110 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.65

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 238% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Jones Over 0.5 (-155) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	-
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Tolbert Over 0.5 (-190) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-169	+130	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Massey Over 0.5 (-190) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Leody Taveras Over 0.5 (-165) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+120	-
Caesars	0.5	-152	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dylan Beavers Over 0.5 (-155) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ Framework posture advisory — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 (-135) diff 209.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +174; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brenton Doyle Over 0.5 (-160) diff 209.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-143	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.3% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Edgar Quero Over 0.5 (-155) diff 209.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+112	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Angel Genao Over 0.5 (-175) diff 208.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -164 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+129	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Availability — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 209% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 (-175) diff 206.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.53 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 206.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 97 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Market Alignment — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 206% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 (-165) diff 202.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 202.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.442 (127 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/117 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/59 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.81 | Away Batter TB: 41/58 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 79/117 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.68

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Framework warning(s): Game Context — posture note at C

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 203% (≥150%) — verify projection

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 (-144) diff 42.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-150	+110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-141	+109	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-148	+111	-
DK	1.5	-144	+109	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/118 (48%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/59 over 1.5 (49%), avg 2.10 | Away Batter TB: 27/59 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 56/118 over 1.5 (48%), avg 2.04

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brandon Nimmo Over 1.5 (+112) diff 25.6% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/111 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.51 | Away Batter TB: 28/54 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 48/111 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 (-148) diff 23.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-130	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-132	+102	-
Caesars	1.5	-141	+106	-
DK	1.5	-148	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓✓!✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.485 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/99 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 19/46 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 46/99 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 (-114) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -114 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.311 (47 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 44/101 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.38 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/51 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.82 | Away Batter TB: 20/50 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.74 | Day Batter TB: 44/101 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.78

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alex Bregman Over 1.5 (-108) diff 5.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -108

Selected market: Over 48.5% / Under 51.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-103	-130	-
DK	1.5	-108	-123	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!✓✓✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 51.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/59 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 42/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Henry Bolte Under 1.5 (-210) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	Recommended
DK	1.5	+156	-210	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓–✓– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 (-135) diff 358.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 2.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 358.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 82/116 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.29

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 359% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eddy Alvarez Over 0.5 (+180) diff 358.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +180

Selected market: Over 33.6% / Under 66.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 66.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 2.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 358.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/116 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 49/59 over 0.5 (83%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 82/116 over 0.5 (71%), avg 2.29

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 33.6% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 359% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Sanoja Over 0.5 (-185) diff 285.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 285.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.4% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Griffin Conine Over 0.5 (-165) diff 285.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 285.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Owen Caissie Over 0.5 (-135) diff 285.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.92 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 285.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 285% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Crawford Over 0.5 (-200) diff 277.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-192	+145	-
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 277.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 278% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elias Diaz Over 0.5 (-130) diff 265.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.83 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 265.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 77/111 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 43/56 over 0.5 (77%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 34/55 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 77/111 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.75

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 266% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Sullivan Over 0.5 (-165) diff 261.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -147 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-147	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.81 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 261.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 261% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Amaya Over 0.5 (-165) diff 246.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.73 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 246.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 246% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 242.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +149; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.71 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 242.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 75/110 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 38/53 over 0.5 (72%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 75/110 over 0.5 (68%), avg 1.94

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 243% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Torres Over 0.5 (-190) diff 241.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-193	+142	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 241% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 (-185) diff 241.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -185 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 241% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Fermin Over 0.5 (-200) diff 241.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -200

Selected market: Over 62.5% / Under 37.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -197 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.70 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 241.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 241% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Henry Davis Over 0.5 (-135) diff 238.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -128 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-128	-101	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 239% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Triolo Over 0.5 (-175) diff 238.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-160	+122	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 238.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 239% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 (-190) diff 234.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.67 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 234.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.47
Base projection 1.47 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.481 (119 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 70/111 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.47
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/55 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.62 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.32 | Day Batter TB: 70/111 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.47

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 234% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 (-135) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -154 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+119	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Austin Wells Over 0.5 (-105) diff 228.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	+102	-132	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-102	-132	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 228.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 229% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Justin Foscue Over 0.5 (-150) diff 226.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.63 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 226.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 226% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 (-135) diff 224.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.62 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 224.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 63/104 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.46 | Away Batter TB: 32/50 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 63/104 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.67

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 224% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ryan Waldschmidt Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-154	+118	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+113	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tim Tawa Over 0.5 (-160) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-156	+121	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Miguel Rojas Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 (-120) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James McCann Over 0.5 (-155) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Locklear Over 0.5 (+220) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +220

Selected market: Over 29.4% / Under 70.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 70.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 29.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 29.4% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rortvedt Over 0.5 (+230) diff 222.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 222.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.5% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 28.5% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 222% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Isbel Over 0.5 (-140) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-141	+109	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Maile Over 0.5 (-125) diff 220.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.60 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 220.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 221% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — James Jarvis Over 0.5 (-125) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.8% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 (-156) diff 217.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.4% / Under 42.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.59 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 217.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 218% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Lara Over 0.5 (-150) diff 216.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +186; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Lockridge Over 0.5 (-135) diff 216.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+104	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.9% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gary Sanchez Over 0.5 (-140) diff 216.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.1% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — David Hamilton Over 0.5 (-105) diff 216.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-102	-127	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-106	-125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 42.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 217% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Clark Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -185 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-185	+140	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-190	+137	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Javier Baez Over 0.5 (-190) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-182	+138	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Zach McKinstry Over 0.5 (-175) diff 216.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 216.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 216% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Cortes Over 0.5 (-123) diff 214.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Donovan Walton Over 0.5 (-143) diff 214.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -143

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -143 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Connor Wong Over 0.5 (+170) diff 214.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +170

Selected market: Over 35.0% / Under 65.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 65.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.0% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 35.0% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Max Muncy (2002) Over 0.5 (+200) diff 214.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 214.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 214% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jorge Polanco Over 0.5 (-135) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 54.1% / Under 45.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Flores Over 0.5 (-165) diff 213.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 213.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 (-130) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Campusano Over 0.5 (-150) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 (-160) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 48.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddy Fermin Over 0.5 (+230) diff 212.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 212.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.5% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 28.5% (1 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 213% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 (-190) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 0.5 (-175) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler O'Neill Over 0.5 (-175) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (6)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carlos Narvaez Over 0.5 (-115) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	-
Caesars	0.5	-108	-124	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colton Cowser Over 0.5 (-115) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cameron Cauley Over 0.5 (-110) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.5% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Coby Mayo Over 0.5 (+200) diff 211.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.56 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 211.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Rogers Over 0.5 (-141) diff 210.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -141

Selected market: Over 55.0% / Under 45.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -141 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 210.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 211% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luisangel Acuna Over 0.5 (-105) diff 209.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.0% / Under 52.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-105	-125	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-109	-119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.55 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 209.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 210% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5 (-160) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 (-155) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (-120) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-116	-111	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 (-125) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	-130	+100	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brendan Donovan Over 0.5 (-140) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Walls Over 0.5 (-110) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-105	-123	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-109	-122	-
Fanatics	0.5	-115	-115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-120	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books) — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Emerson Over 0.5 (+115) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +115 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +115 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+115	-155	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	0.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	0.5	+105	-139	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Weston Wilson Over 0.5 (+105) diff 208.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +105

Selected market: Over 45.2% / Under 54.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 54.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +105 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 208.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 208% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Denzer Guzman Over 0.5 (-160) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Moises Ballesteros Over 0.5 (-190) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Adam Frazier Over 0.5 (+240) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +240

Selected market: Over 27.4% / Under 72.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-118	-110	-
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 72.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Siri Over 0.5 (+200) diff 207.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-108	-120	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✓✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 207.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 40.2% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 207% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Benge Over 0.5 (-190) diff 199.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +146; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.50 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 199.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.55
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.498 (51 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 1.17 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 74/112 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.50 | Season Avg 1.55
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 over 0.5 (65%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 37/55 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.82 | Day Batter TB: 74/112 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.55

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 199.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 199.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +1.00 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 200% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Travis Bazzana Over 0.5 (-190) diff 190.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+141	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.45 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 190.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 51/85 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/44 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.36 | Away Batter TB: 25/41 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 51/85 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 190.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 190.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.95 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 190% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willy Adames Over 0.5 (-165) diff 188.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.44 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 188.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.70 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/53 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 35/59 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.76 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.60

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 188.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 188.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.94 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 189% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 (-150) diff 186.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonah Heim Over 0.5 (-175) diff 186.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy White Over 0.5 (-220) diff 186.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -220

Selected market: Over 64.6% / Under 35.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -196 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Over 1.5 +141; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-220	+165	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-196	+150	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 64.6%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Osleivis Basabe Over 0.5 (-175) diff 183.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -162 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+125	-
Caesars	0.5	-162	+121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drew Gilbert Over 0.5 (-150) diff 183.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jared Young Over 0.5 (-150) diff 176.2% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Young Over 0.5 (-155) diff 176.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-150	+120	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.38 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 176.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 79/118 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 39/61 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 40/57 over 0.5 (70%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 79/118 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.49

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 176.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 176.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.88 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 176% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Naylor Over 0.5 (-160) diff 169.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 0.5 -160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRaw BestVerify
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+123	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-160	+125	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.386 (52 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/110 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/56 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 41/54 over 0.5 (76%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 74/110 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.85 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 (-175) diff 169.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -175 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 169.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.58
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.310 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/115 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.58
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/57 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 68/115 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.58

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 169.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 169.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 169% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kody Clemens Over 0.5 (-120) diff 167.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -119 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-124	-108	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 167.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/103 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.90 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/47 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 31/56 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 61/103 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 167.1% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.84 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 167% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Sam Antonacci Over 0.5 (-135) diff 166.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-135	+105	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 59/96 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/48 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 25/48 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 59/96 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.3% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Garrett Mitchell Over 0.5 (-156) diff 166.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -156

Selected market: Over 57.3% / Under 42.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -156 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.33 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 166.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.32
Base projection 1.32 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.478 (36 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 55/106 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.32
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.26 | Away Batter TB: 28/49 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 55/106 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.32

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 166.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 166.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.83 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 166% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Myles Straw Over 0.5 (-150) diff 164.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-161	+124	-
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brett Bateman Over 0.5 (-185) diff 164.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-172	+131	-
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 164.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mauricio Dubon Over 0.5 (-175) diff 160.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.8% / Under 40.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -175 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 160.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.86x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.331 (134 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 77/112 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 over 0.5 (64%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 41/56 over 0.5 (73%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 77/112 over 0.5 (69%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 160.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 160.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.80 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 161% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brayan Rocchio Over 0.5 (-190) diff 157.7% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -190

Selected market: Over 61.1% / Under 38.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-190	+139	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.29 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 157.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 69/115 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/58 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 31/57 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.21 | Day Batter TB: 69/115 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 157.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.7% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 157.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.79 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 158% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dominic Smith Over 0.5 (+200) diff 155.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 31.6% / Under 68.4%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	0.5	-145	+111	-
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 68.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cam Smith Over 0.5 (-175) diff 155.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 0.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-164	+126	-
Caesars	0.5	-164	+123	-
Fanatics	0.5	-160	+120	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min — posture note at D

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Royce Lewis Over 0.5 (-140) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-132	+102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-141	+106	-
Fanatics	0.5	-150	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/4 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trevor Larnach Over 0.5 (-115) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.0% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Josh Bell Over 0.5 (-130) diff 142.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -127 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-127	-102	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-130	-103	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 142.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 74/113 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/54 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 42/59 over 0.5 (71%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 74/113 over 0.5 (66%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 142.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brooks Lee Over 0.5 (-130) diff 127.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 127.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.171 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/112 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/54 over 0.5 (57%), avg 1.09 | Away Batter TB: 36/58 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.90 | Day Batter TB: 67/112 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 127.7% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.64 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cedric Mullins Over 0.5 (-130) diff 125.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -130

Selected market: Over 52.5% / Under 47.5%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -123 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-130	-105	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-123	-104	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	0.5	-129	-104	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-140	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 125.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.20
Base projection 1.20 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.195 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/100 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.20
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/50 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 27/50 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 55/100 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 125.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 125.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.63 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Taylor Ward Over 0.5 (-165) diff 119.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +178; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+125	-
theScore Bet	0.5	-165	+130	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 119.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.25
Base projection 1.25 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (35 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 73/116 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 1.25
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 38/64 over 0.5 (59%), avg 0.95 | Away Batter TB: 35/52 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.62 | Day Batter TB: 73/116 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.25

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 119.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 119.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.60 <= 1 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andres Gimenez Over 0.5 (-150) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -136 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.97 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.320 (29 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 58/112 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/55 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 29/57 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.16 | Day Batter TB: 58/112 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 93.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 (-150) diff 85.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -143 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-143	+108	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.93 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Base projection 1.22 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 73/109 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 9/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/55 over 0.5 (55%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter TB: 43/54 over 0.5 (80%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 73/109 over 0.5 (67%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 85.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 (-115) diff 59.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -115

Selected market: Over 49.9% / Under 50.1%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-115	-115	-
BetOnline	1.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-115	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 59.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.03
Base projection 2.03 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.599 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/107 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.10 | Season Avg 2.10
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.00 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/49 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.12 | Away Batter TB: 30/58 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.09 | Day Batter TB: 50/107 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 59.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 (-105) diff 57.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+103	-133	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-127	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 57.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (81 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 48/112 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/58 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.17 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.65 | Day Batter TB: 48/112 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 57.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 (-114) diff 52.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -114

Selected market: Over 49.8% / Under 50.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-110	-118	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-117	-114	-
DK	1.5	-114	-116	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.29 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 52.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.29
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 50.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/59 over 1.5 (61%), avg 2.68 | Away Batter TB: 19/57 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.29

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 52.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jordan Walker Over 1.5 (-102) diff 50.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.2% / Under 52.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +100 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	-105	-123	-
Caesars	1.5	-112	-120	-
DK	1.5	-102	-130	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+100	-130	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.556 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 52/113 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 29/52 over 1.5 (56%), avg 2.13 | Day Batter TB: 52/113 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.7% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Harper Over 1.5 (+110) diff 50.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.26 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 50.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.637 (77 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 50/118 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/61 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.84 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.72 | Day Batter TB: 50/118 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 50.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 (+120) diff 49.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +120 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.23 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 43/107 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/53 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 2.15 | Day Batter TB: 43/107 over 1.5 (40%), avg 2.02

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 49.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 (+114) diff 45.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.6% / Under 56.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+114	-152	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 2.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 45.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.92
Base projection 1.92 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (61 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 1.92
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 20/51 over 1.5 (39%), avg 2.12 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.92

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 45.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+118) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 43.0% / Under 57.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 54/110 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/54 over 1.5 (54%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 54/110 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ben Rice Over 1.5 (+114) diff 44.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 44.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.04
Base projection 2.04 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.444 (70 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 50/112 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 2.04
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.24 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/50 over 1.5 (42%), avg 2.00 | Away Batter TB: 29/62 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.08 | Day Batter TB: 50/112 over 1.5 (45%), avg 2.04

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 44.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Otto Lopez Over 1.5 (-103) diff 42.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.5% / Under 52.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-134	-
DK	1.5	-103	-128	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.13 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.89
Base projection 1.89 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.221 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 56/114 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.89
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.79 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/58 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 56/114 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.89

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 (+104) diff 38.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 2.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 38.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.438 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 34/93 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/45 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 18/48 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.85 | Day Batter TB: 34/93 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 38.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Junior Caminero Over 1.5 (+116) diff 36.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+105	-139	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+110	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 36.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.09
Base projection 2.09 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.351 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.09
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/59 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.20 | Away Batter TB: 24/57 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.96 | Day Batter TB: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 36.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Burleson Over 1.5 (-120) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	-111	-116	-
Caesars	1.5	-122	-109	-
DK	1.5	-120	-110	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.04 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 55/116 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Away Batter TB: 32/54 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.19 | Day Batter TB: 55/116 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.80

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trea Turner Over 1.5 (+106) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +106

Selected market: Over 45.4% / Under 54.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+106	-137	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+100	-134	-
DK	1.5	+106	-141	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+105	-140	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (82 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.6%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 43/115 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.93 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/60 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.93 | Away Batter TB: 18/55 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 43/115 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 (+118) diff 34.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.8% / Under 57.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+118	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.84
Base projection 1.84 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 48/102 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.84
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.96 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/51 over 1.5 (59%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 18/51 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 48/102 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.84

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Matt Olson Over 1.5 (+123) diff 33.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +123

Selected market: Over 42.0% / Under 58.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +123 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-157	-
DK	1.5	+123	-163	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.01 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.13
Base projection 2.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.538 (157 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.0%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/117 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 2.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.77 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/59 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.02 | Away Batter TB: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.24 | Day Batter TB: 62/117 over 1.5 (53%), avg 2.13

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andy Pages Over 1.5 (+100) diff 33.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.8% / Under 53.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +105 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+102	-132	-
Caesars	1.5	-102	-132	-
DK	1.5	+100	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Base projection 1.77 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.435 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.2%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 49/116 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.33 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/55 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.89 | Away Batter TB: 23/61 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 49/116 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.77

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 (-101) diff 33.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	-
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 2.00 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 33.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.80
Base projection 1.80 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 52/114 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.80
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 32/58 over 1.5 (55%), avg 2.07 | Day Batter TB: 52/114 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.1% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 33.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 (+145) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.2% / Under 61.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +145 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+145	-194	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.62 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/60 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/53 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 (+116) diff 31.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+113	-150	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 2.02
Base projection 2.02 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 48/108 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.02
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.68 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/52 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.71 | Away Batter TB: 29/56 over 1.5 (52%), avg 2.30 | Day Batter TB: 48/108 over 1.5 (44%), avg 2.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 (+104) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.7% / Under 54.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+103	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-139	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.92 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.95
Base projection 1.95 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 33/83 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.95
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/44 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.95 | Away Batter TB: 19/39 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.95 | Day Batter TB: 33/83 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.95

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willson Contreras Over 1.5 (+108) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +109 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	1.5	+109	-141	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.91 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.85
Base projection 1.85 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/106 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.85
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.85 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 22/51 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 46/106 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.85

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 (+132) diff 25.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.4% / Under 59.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-175	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.89 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 1.54 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 (+130) diff 25.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 25.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.72
Base projection 1.72 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.747 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/109 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.72
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.48 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.91 | Away Batter TB: 19/53 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Day Batter TB: 44/109 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.72

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 25.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Starling Marte Over 1.5 (+136) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.487 (160 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ketel Marte Over 1.5 (+110) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+107	-143	-
DK	1.5	+110	-147	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.85 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 23.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.74
Base projection 1.74 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.487 (160 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 52/112 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.74
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -1.04 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 52/112 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.74

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 23.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 (+130) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.7% / Under 59.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +130 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 1.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+130	-173	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+125	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Yainer Diaz Over 1.5 (+146) diff 22.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+141	-190	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.83 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.75
Base projection 1.75 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.75
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/56 over 1.5 (54%), avg 2.14 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.75

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 (-177) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -177

Selected market: Over 40.2% / Under 59.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+133	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.8%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 69/109 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.55 | Day Batter TB: 69/109 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pete Alonso Over 1.5 (+119) diff 20.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.6% / Under 57.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+128	-167	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+119	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (70 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 47/117 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/62 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.71 | Day Batter TB: 47/117 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.70

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 (+136) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Cole Carrigg Over 1.5 (+140) diff 20.5% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 39.0% / Under 61.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+140	-187	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.81 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Brice Turang Over 1.5 (+151) diff 19.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +158 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+144	-197	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.80 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/111 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/60 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.83 | Away Batter TB: 19/51 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.75 | Day Batter TB: 48/111 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 (+126) diff 19.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+119	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.76
Base projection 1.76 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.386 (154 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 48/114 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.76
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/57 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.98 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 48/114 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.76

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 (+135) diff 19.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +139 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	-
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.79 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/114 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 20/56 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.57 | Day Batter TB: 45/114 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.65

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-162) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -162

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+125	-170	-
DK	1.5	+121	-162	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.13
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 72/108 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.87 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 36/55 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.05 | Day Batter TB: 72/108 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 (-105) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-120	-110	-
BetOnline	1.5	-108	-120	-
Caesars	1.5	-114	-117	-
DK	1.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✓–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.83
Base projection 1.83 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.364 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 55/112 (49%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 1.83
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/59 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.64 | Away Batter TB: 27/53 over 1.5 (51%), avg 2.04 | Day Batter TB: 55/112 over 1.5 (49%), avg 1.83

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryson Stott Over 1.5 (+138) diff 18.3% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 43/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.40 | Day Batter TB: 43/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.45

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Harris II Over 1.5 (+120) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+112	-150	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.88
Base projection 1.88 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.532 (81 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 50/111 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.88
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.85 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.91 | Day Batter TB: 50/111 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.88

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 (-123) diff 18.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -123

Selected market: Over 51.6% / Under 48.4%

Own-line consensus: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	1.5	-123	-104	-
Caesars	1.5	-132	-102	-
DK	1.5	-123	-107	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	-115	-115	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.77 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.77
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (79 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 4/5 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 51.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 44/113 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.80 | Season Avg 1.77
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.03 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 24/55 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.80 | Day Batter TB: 44/113 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.77

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masyn Winn Under 1.5 (-180) diff 17.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -180

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -179 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	Recommended
DK	1.5	+135	-180	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.14
Base projection 1.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 74/109 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.14
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter TB: 37/52 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 74/109 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chandler Simpson Under 1.5 (-210) diff 15.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -210

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
Caesars	1.5	+157	-213	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.31
Base projection 1.31 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 68/109 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.31
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/57 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28 | Away Batter TB: 31/52 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.35 | Day Batter TB: 68/109 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 (+132) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-177	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.67
Base projection 1.67 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.649 (44 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 40/107 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.67
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 17/51 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 40/107 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.67

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.6% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Conforto Over 1.5 (+120) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyrone Taylor Over 1.5 (+141) diff 15.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +141

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+135	-182	-
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.73 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.2% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Caleb Durbin Under 1.5 (+180) diff 15.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +180

Selected market: Over 66.4% / Under 33.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 66.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.27 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 15.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 70/109 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.27 | Away Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 70/109 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 (+130) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +130

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+130	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.678 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 48/113 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.26 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/56 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.79 | Away Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 48/113 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.4% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 (+131) diff 14.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+131	-174	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.72 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.78
Base projection 1.78 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.598 (106 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 39/94 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.88 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.88 | Away Batter TB: 17/44 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.66 | Day Batter TB: 39/94 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.78

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 (+120) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+120	-159	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.94
Base projection 1.94 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 50/110 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.94
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.86 | Away Batter TB: 25/53 over 1.5 (47%), avg 2.02 | Day Batter TB: 50/110 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.94

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mike Trout Over 1.5 (+132) diff 14.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.71 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.635 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 36/98 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 14/48 over 1.5 (29%), avg 1.21 | Away Batter TB: 22/50 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.98 | Day Batter TB: 36/98 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nathan Church Over 1.5 (+155) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
Caesars	1.5	+142	-193	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.1% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 (+114) diff 13.6% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +114

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +114 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+114	-151	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.60
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.361 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 47/116 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.60
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.30 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 25/59 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.64 | Day Batter TB: 47/116 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Walker Over 1.5 (+138) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.70 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 0.9 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 48/114 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 25/56 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.89 | Day Batter TB: 48/114 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.1% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronny Simon Over 1.5 (+128) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +128

Selected market: Over 41.1% / Under 58.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+128	-170	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.9%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Mangum Over 1.5 (+134) diff 13.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+134	-180	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	1.5	+130	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 13.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 1.63 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 (+125) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.5% / Under 58.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+122	-162	-
DK	1.5	+125	-167	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.69 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.520 (105 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 40/89 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 16/43 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 24/46 over 1.5 (52%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 40/89 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Trent Grisham Under 1.5 (-175) diff 12.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -175

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-180	+140	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.31 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.30
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 68/97 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/43 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.74 | Away Batter TB: 42/54 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.94 | Day Batter TB: 68/97 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 (+134) diff 12.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +134; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 47/115 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.10 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.53 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/57 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.37 | Away Batter TB: 25/58 over 1.5 (43%), avg 1.78 | Day Batter TB: 47/115 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ian Happ Over 1.5 (+104) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +104

Selected market: Over 45.8% / Under 54.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+104	-137	-
DK	1.5	+104	-138	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 12.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.50
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.556 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/114 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.50
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.60 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 21/57 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/114 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.50

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ernie Clement Under 1.5 (-205) diff 11.9% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -205

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -165 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	-
DK	1.5	+153	-205	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.59
Base projection 1.59 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 67/115 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.59
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 33/58 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.69 | Away Batter TB: 34/57 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 67/115 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.59

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alejandro Kirk Under 1.5 (-201) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -201

Selected market: Over 37.5% / Under 62.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
DK	1.5	+150	-201	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.32 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 (+131) diff 11.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +131

Selected market: Over 40.5% / Under 59.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	-
DK	1.5	+131	-175	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.68 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.62
Base projection 1.62 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (39 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.5%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 46/119 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.62
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/59 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.78 | Away Batter TB: 22/60 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 46/119 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.62

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 (+109) diff 11.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+108	-143	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.64
Base projection 1.64 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 46/100 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.64
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.59 | Away Batter TB: 21/46 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.70 | Day Batter TB: 46/100 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.64

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.9% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-131) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -131

Selected market: Over 47.0% / Under 53.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -131 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+107	-139	-
Caesars	1.5	+102	-136	-
DK	1.5	-101	-131	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	+200	-260	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.33 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.38
Base projection 1.38 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 76/109 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.38
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 37/54 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.50 | Away Batter TB: 39/55 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter TB: 76/109 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.38

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Willi Castro Over 1.5 (+145) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +149 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 42/99 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/49 over 1.5 (51%), avg 1.76 | Away Batter TB: 17/50 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter TB: 42/99 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.52

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Xavier Edwards Over 1.5 (+119) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/118 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/59 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 18/59 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.31 | Day Batter TB: 41/118 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Burger Over 1.5 (+124) diff 11.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +124

Selected market: Over 41.8% / Under 58.2%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+124	-165	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.67 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 11.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.2%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/112 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.63 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 19/54 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.35 | Away Batter TB: 23/58 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 42/112 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.53

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Rafael Devers Over 1.5 (+120) diff 10.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +134 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+134	-175	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.66 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 10.7% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.79
Base projection 1.79 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.531 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 49/117 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.79
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/55 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.80 | Away Batter TB: 28/62 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.79 | Day Batter TB: 49/117 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.79

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — JJ Wetherholt Over 1.5 (+103) diff 9.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +103

Selected market: Over 46.0% / Under 54.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+103	-137	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.65 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.49
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.0%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 41/111 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.49
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.49 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.30 | Away Batter TB: 21/54 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.69 | Day Batter TB: 41/111 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.49

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Tucker Under 1.5 (-174) diff 9.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -174

Selected market: Over 40.6% / Under 59.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -173 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+128	-173	Recommended
DK	1.5	+130	-174	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.35 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.36
Base projection 1.36 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 77/110 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.36
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/54 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.68 | Day Batter TB: 77/110 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.36

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 (+117) diff 9.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +117

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	-
DK	1.5	+117	-156	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kyle Karros Under 1.5 (-190) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+138	-190	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.36 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Base projection 1.28 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 34/53 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.32 | Away Batter TB: 37/56 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Manny Machado Over 1.5 (+126) diff 9.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +126 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +126; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+120	-159	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.64 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 9.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 41/115 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/57 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.67 | Day Batter TB: 41/115 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wyatt Langford Over 1.5 (+118) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-152	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Corey Seager Over 1.5 (+120) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+122	-159	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+120	-160	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ivan Herrera Over 1.5 (-101) diff 8.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	-101	-132	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.63 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 8.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Base projection 1.45 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.398 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/116 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.55 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/61 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.43 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 41/116 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.45

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tommy Edman Over 1.5 (+110) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Mookie Betts Over 1.5 (+113) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +113

Selected market: Over 43.9% / Under 56.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+118	-154	-
Caesars	1.5	+114	-152	-
DK	1.5	+113	-150	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 (+138) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	-
Caesars	1.5	+124	-170	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.0% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Elieser Hernández Over 1.5 (-200) diff 7.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -200

Selected market: Over 63.4% / Under 36.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 63.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Geraldo Perdomo Under 1.5 (-190) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -190

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -190 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	-
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
Fanatics	1.5	+150	-200	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.35
Base projection 1.35 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.410 (159 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.35
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/57 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter TB: 39/57 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.35

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jo Adell Over 1.5 (+125) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+125	-166	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.706 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 39/116 (34%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.78 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/60 over 1.5 (30%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 21/56 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.73 | Day Batter TB: 39/116 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.48

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Alec Bohm Over 1.5 (+151) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +151

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-200	+150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+151	-203	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 1.3 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 36/113 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.43 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.53 | Away Batter TB: 15/55 over 1.5 (27%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 36/113 over 1.5 (32%), avg 1.33

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Francisco Lindor Under 1.5 (-171) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -171

Selected market: Over 41.0% / Under 59.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -159 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+126	-164	-
Caesars	1.5	+118	-159	Recommended
DK	1.5	+128	-171	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.0%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — A.J. Ewing Under 1.5 (-191) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+138	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	Recommended
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.39 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Tyler Soderstrom Over 1.5 (+137) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +137

Selected market: Over 39.5% / Under 60.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +141 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+137	-183	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.61 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 7.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.70
Base projection 1.70 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.468 (55 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Erik Miller: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 47/105 (45%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.70
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/48 over 1.5 (50%), avg 1.96 | Away Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 47/105 over 1.5 (45%), avg 1.70

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Loftin Over 1.5 (+126) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.55 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bo Bichette Under 1.5 (-163) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+117	-157	Recommended
DK	1.5	+122	-163	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/117 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 41/58 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.38 | Away Batter TB: 37/59 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.54 | Day Batter TB: 78/117 under 1.5 (67%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Carson Kelly Over 1.5 (+136) diff 6.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.8% / Under 60.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.60 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.8% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Dansby Swanson Under 1.5 (-148) diff 6.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -148

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -148 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+115	-149	-
Caesars	1.5	+110	-148	-
DK	1.5	+111	-148	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.37
Base projection 1.37 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 78/113 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.37
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.40 | Away Batter TB: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 78/113 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.37

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Pedro Ramirez Under 1.5 (-152) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -152

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/86 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 55/86 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-134) diff 6.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+101	-136	-
DK	1.5	+101	-134	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.41 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 55/86 (64%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 28/43 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 55/86 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Christian Yelich Over 1.5 (+155) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +155

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Michael Busch Over 1.5 (-117) diff 5.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 -106 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	1.5	-106	-122	Recommended
Caesars	1.5	-113	-118	-
DK	1.5	-117	-113	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+220	-300	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.59 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.48
Base projection 1.48 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.452 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 42/117 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.48
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/59 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.66 | Away Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.29 | Day Batter TB: 42/117 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.48

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.6) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andrew Vaughn Over 1.5 (+136) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +136; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+130	-176	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.5) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.0% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Bryce Eldridge Under 1.5 (-185) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -185

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -176 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	-
Caesars	1.5	+131	-176	RecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.42 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 (+116) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+120	-156	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+116	-154	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Base projection 1.53 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.396 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/113 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/56 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.25 | Away Batter TB: 30/57 over 1.5 (53%), avg 1.81 | Day Batter TB: 53/113 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.53

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.1% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 (+153) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +153

Selected market: Over 37.0% / Under 63.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+145	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+145	-197	-
DK	1.5	+153	-206	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 9 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (3.9) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Colt Keith Over 1.5 (+140) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +140

Selected market: Over 38.9% / Under 61.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +161; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Fanatics	0.5	-170	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	Recommended
BetMGM	1.5	+140	-190	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+161	-213	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+149	-200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jung Hoo Lee Over 1.5 (+132) diff 5.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +132

Selected market: Over 40.3% / Under 59.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +132 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+126	-170	-
DK	1.5	+132	-176	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.3% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.68
Base projection 1.68 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.627 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 59.7%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/107 (42%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 1.68
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.52 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/47 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 28/60 over 1.5 (47%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 45/107 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.68

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.3% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Duran Over 1.5 (+135) diff 5.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +135

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+146	-197	-
theScore Bet	1.5	-200	+160	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.58 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 5.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 42/108 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 2/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/53 over 1.5 (42%), avg 1.75 | Away Batter TB: 20/55 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.38 | Day Batter TB: 42/108 over 1.5 (39%), avg 1.56

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 7 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.1) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 1.5 (-181) diff 4.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -181

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	Recommended
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 (-260) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -260 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -260

Selected market: Over 68.4% / Under 31.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -260 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Troy Johnston Over 1.5 (+178) diff 4.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +178

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 33.8% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.7% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jacob Wilson Under 1.5 (-191) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -191

Selected market: Over 38.5% / Under 61.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+123	-164	-
DK	1.5	+143	-191	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 (+152) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Enmanuel Valdez Over 1.5 (-165) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.9% / Under 41.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 58.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 1.5 -165 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Liam Hicks Under 1.5 (-204) diff 4.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 37.2% / Under 62.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 -190 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 0.5 +145; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-190	+140	-
Caesars	0.5	-197	+145	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+149	-196	-
DK	1.5	+152	-204	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+150	-190	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.43 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.5% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.52
Base projection 1.52 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 65/105 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.52
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/50 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.56 | Away Batter TB: 35/55 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.49 | Day Batter TB: 65/105 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.52

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Riley Greene Over 1.5 (+134) diff 4.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +134

Selected market: Over 40.0% / Under 60.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +134 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+124	-161	-
Caesars	1.5	+121	-162	-
DK	1.5	+134	-179	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.57 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 53/115 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.45 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/57 over 1.5 (44%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 28/58 over 1.5 (48%), avg 1.86 | Day Batter TB: 53/115 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 (+119) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +119

Selected market: Over 42.7% / Under 57.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +119 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	1.5	+117	-152	-
Caesars	1.5	+115	-154	-
DK	1.5	+119	-158	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Ty France Over 1.5 (+139) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +139; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	1.5	+139	-182	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+136	-182	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.2% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 (+144) diff 4.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +144

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +150 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+155	-204	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+140	-190	-
DK	1.5	+144	-193	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 4.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Jose Altuve Over 1.5 (+138) diff 3.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+137	-190	-
DK	1.5	+138	-184	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-220	+170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.56 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.56
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 35/93 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.56
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 18/47 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.72 | Away Batter TB: 17/46 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 35/93 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.56

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.9% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nick Sogard Over 1.5 (+112) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +112

Selected market: Over 44.1% / Under 55.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +112 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +112; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+110	-150	-
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	Raw BestVerify
Caesars	1.5	+106	-141	-
DK	1.5	+112	-149	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Andruw Monasterio Over 1.5 (+126) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +126

Selected market: Over 41.4% / Under 58.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +132 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+122	-164	-
DK	1.5	+126	-168	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.6%
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.3) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.7% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Anthony Seigler Over 1.5 (+146) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +146

Selected market: Over 38.0% / Under 62.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +146 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	1.5	+141	-185	-
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
DK	1.5	+146	-196	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.0% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Eli White Over 1.5 (+167) diff 3.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +167

Selected market: Over 35.2% / Under 64.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +167 | exact

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Baby Line: Batting 8 — limited PA opportunity for an Over | Projected PA (4.0) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 35.2% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Salvador Perez Under 1.5 (-140) diff 3.4% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Under 1.5 -129 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -140

Selected market: Over 45.5% / Under 54.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Under 1.5 -129 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	1.5	+104	-135	-
Caesars	1.5	-105	-129	Recommended
DK	1.5	+105	-140	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.45 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.45
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 71/109 (65%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.45
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/53 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.36 | Day Batter TB: 71/109 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.45

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.4% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Oswald Peraza Over 1.5 (+199) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +199

Selected market: Over 31.4% / Under 68.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +199 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.4% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Vaughn Grissom Over 1.5 (+152) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +152

Selected market: Over 37.3% / Under 62.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +152 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 1.55 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 3.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.3% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nolan Schanuel Under 1.5 (-182) diff 2.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -182

Selected market: Over 39.6% / Under 60.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+130	-169	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-182	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.46 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.44
Base projection 1.44 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 56/97 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.44
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 29/51 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter TB: 27/46 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.50 | Day Batter TB: 56/97 under 1.5 (58%), avg 1.44

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Wade Meckler Over 1.5 (+136) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +136

Selected market: Over 39.7% / Under 60.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 1.5 +145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	-
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+127	-170	-
DK	1.5	+136	-181	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+145	-190	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-250	+190	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/5 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.7) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.7% (6 books) | books against us 20% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 (+125) diff 2.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +144 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+125	-165	Selected
BetOnline	1.5	+144	-189	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+133	-179	-
theScore Bet	1.5	+140	-180	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (54 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 42/110 (38%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 17/55 over 1.5 (31%), avg 1.42 | Away Batter TB: 25/55 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.87 | Day Batter TB: 42/110 over 1.5 (38%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 (+139) diff 2.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +139

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +146 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	1.5	+139	-190	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-190	+150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.53 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.1% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.53
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 45/111 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.53
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/57 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.60 | Away Batter TB: 22/54 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.46 | Day Batter TB: 45/111 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.53

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.1% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — William Contreras Under 1.5 (-186) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -186

Selected market: Over 39.1% / Under 60.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+136	-179	-
Caesars	1.5	+129	-173	-
DK	1.5	+139	-186	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-240	+180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.47 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.51
Base projection 1.51 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 60.9%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_total_bases Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 62/108 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.51
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 36/60 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 26/48 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.58 | Day Batter TB: 62/108 under 1.5 (57%), avg 1.51

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 (+108) diff 1.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +108

Selected market: Over 45.0% / Under 55.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+120	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+108	-143	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗✓✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.43
Base projection 1.43 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.430 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.0%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 41/116 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.43
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 21/58 over 1.5 (36%), avg 1.52 | Away Batter TB: 20/58 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.34 | Day Batter TB: 41/116 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.43

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.2) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.6% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 (+118) diff 1.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +118

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 +118 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	1.5	+110	-143	-
Caesars	1.5	+111	-150	-
DK	1.5	+118	-157	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.52 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 1.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.65
Base projection 1.65 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 46/113 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.65
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 1.5; recent avg up +0.65 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 22/55 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.45 | Away Batter TB: 24/58 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.83 | Day Batter TB: 46/113 over 1.5 (41%), avg 1.65

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.3% (5 books) | books against us 25% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.2% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Total Bases — Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 (+109) diff 0.4% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +109

Selected market: Over 44.7% / Under 55.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 1.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 1.5 +190; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+115	-155	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+112	-145	-
Caesars	1.5	+109	-145	-
DK	1.5	+109	-145	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	+190	-250	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.51 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 0.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.57
Base projection 1.57 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (80 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 55.3%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 1.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 41/116 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 1.57
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 1/10 over 1.5; recent avg down -0.97 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 23/62 over 1.5 (37%), avg 1.58 | Away Batter TB: 18/54 over 1.5 (33%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 41/116 over 1.5 (35%), avg 1.57

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.9% (5 books) | books against us 0% (5 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.4% vs 70% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 0.5 (-165) diff 192.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -157 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +152; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-157	+117	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+140	-180	-
BetOnline	1.5	+152	-200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.46 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 192.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.40
Base projection 1.40 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 64/108 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.40
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 31/51 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 64/108 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.40

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 192.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.96 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.0% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 193% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 (-165) diff 186.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-173	+130	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.8% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jonathan Ornelas Over 0.5 (+230) diff 186.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +230

Selected market: Over 28.5% / Under 71.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 71.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 186.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 186.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 28.5% (1 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 (-110) diff 185.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -110

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -110 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-110	-120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-115	-117	-
Fanatics	0.5	-120	-110	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.43 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 185.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 1.60 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 185.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.93 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 186% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Daniel Susac Over 0.5 (-140) diff 183.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.5% / Under 45.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -140 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-140	+105	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	-152	+116	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 54.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.5% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Christian Koss Over 0.5 (-125) diff 183.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -125

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-125	-105	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-134	+100	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Grant McCray Over 0.5 (-120) diff 183.5% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-120	-112	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+240	-350	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.42 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 183.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 1.56 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 183.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.92 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.1% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 183% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Agustín Ramírez Over 0.5 (+160) diff 181.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +160

Selected market: Over 36.6% / Under 63.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Over 0.5 +160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +164; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	1.5	+164	-217	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.41 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 181.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.42
Base projection 1.42 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.83 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 63.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 53/86 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.42
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.72 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/43 over 0.5 (63%), avg 1.33 | Away Batter TB: 26/43 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.51 | Day Batter TB: 53/86 over 0.5 (62%), avg 1.42

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 181.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.91 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.0% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 182% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Luis Robert Jr. Over 0.5 (-185) diff 178.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -185

Selected market: Over 60.4% / Under 39.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -182 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +167; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-185	+135	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-182	+135	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.39 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 178.6% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 1.50 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 60.4%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 178.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.89 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 179% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Spencer Torkelson Over 0.5 (-165) diff 171.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.4% / Under 41.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -165 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-165	+125	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-176	+131	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 171.8% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.46
Base projection 1.46 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 58.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 65/116 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.46
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 8/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.44 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 32/57 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.44 | Away Batter TB: 33/59 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.47 | Day Batter TB: 65/116 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.46

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 171.8% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.86 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 172% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Davis Schneider Over 0.5 (+115) diff 164.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +115

Selected market: Over 43.4% / Under 56.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+115	-155	Selected
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-500	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.32 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 164.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 1.49 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 164.5% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.82 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 36.2% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 165% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Josh Smith Over 0.5 (-115) diff 155.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	-
Caesars	0.5	-110	-121	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+280	-400	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 1.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 155.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.28
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 59/116 (51%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.28
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +1.02 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 26/59 over 0.5 (44%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter TB: 33/57 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.56 | Day Batter TB: 59/116 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 155.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.78 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 155% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Jakob Marsee Over 0.5 (-150) diff 154.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 154.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.03
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (40 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 57/113 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/57 over 0.5 (47%), avg 0.93 | Away Batter TB: 30/56 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.12 | Day Batter TB: 57/113 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 154.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.77 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ High TB diff 154% (≥150%) — verify projection

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Victor Caratini Over 0.5 (-115) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -115

Selected market: Over 50.0% / Under 50.0%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 0.5 -112 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-115	-115	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-112	-115	Recommended
Caesars	0.5	-113	-118	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+260	-375	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 50.0%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ryan Kreidler Over 0.5 (+125) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +125 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +125

Selected market: Over 41.6% / Under 58.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +125 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +320; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+125	-165	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	0.5	+113	-147	-
Caesars	0.5	+117	-157	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+320	-500	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 58.4%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 37.7% (4 books) | books against us 0% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Alan Roden Over 0.5 (+120) diff 147.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 +124 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 +124 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +380; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	+120	-160	Selected
Caesars	0.5	+124	-170	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+380	-650	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 147.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 1.58 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 147.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.74 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 34.4% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 (-175) diff 144.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -175

Selected market: Over 59.4% / Under 40.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +158; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-175	+130	Selected
Caesars	0.5	-170	+127	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+150	-190	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 1.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 144.2% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.22
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 59.4%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 58/104 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.80 | Season Avg 1.22
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.42 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 28/55 over 0.5 (51%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter TB: 30/49 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.39 | Day Batter TB: 58/104 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 144.2% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.72 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Gavin Sheets Over 0.5 (-135) diff 141.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-136	+102	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 141.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.16
Base projection 1.16 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/2 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 54/109 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 1.16
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.76 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 20/53 over 0.5 (38%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter TB: 34/56 over 0.5 (61%), avg 1.43 | Day Batter TB: 54/109 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 141.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.71 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (3 books) | split consensus 50% (3 books)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 (-160) diff 139.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -160

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -160 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-160	+120	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-179	+133	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+160	-200	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 139.6% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.12
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.480 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 56/108 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.28 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 25/55 over 0.5 (46%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter TB: 31/53 over 0.5 (58%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter TB: 56/108 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 139.6% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.70 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.2% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Austin Riley Over 0.5 (-135) diff 134.9% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -135

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -135 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-135	+100	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-145	+109	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!! ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.33
Base projection 1.33 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.396 (154 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 62/116 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.33
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 7/10 over 0.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 35/58 over 0.5 (60%), avg 1.55 | Away Batter TB: 27/58 over 0.5 (47%), avg 1.10 | Day Batter TB: 62/116 over 0.5 (53%), avg 1.33

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.6% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 (-150) diff 134.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -150

Selected market: Over 55.8% / Under 44.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -150 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-150	+110	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-154	+115	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+180	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗––– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 134.9% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.11
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.231 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 55.8%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 61/112 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 6/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 27/54 over 0.5 (50%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter TB: 34/58 over 0.5 (59%), avg 1.17 | Day Batter TB: 61/112 over 0.5 (55%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 134.9% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.67 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.1% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Marcus Semien Over 0.5 (-155) diff 116.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.6% / Under 43.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 3 books | 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Over 1.5 +171; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-155	+115	SelectedRecommended
Caesars	0.5	-159	+119	-
theScore Bet	0.5	+170	-220	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 116.0% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.29
Base projection 1.29 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (75 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 0.75 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 56.6%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 51/99 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.29
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 5/10 over 0.5
Player context: Home Batter TB: 24/49 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.16 | Away Batter TB: 27/50 over 0.5 (54%), avg 1.42 | Day Batter TB: 51/99 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 116.0% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5 clears, but raw gap +0.58 <= 1 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.9% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

D Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Batter Total Bases — Brett Baty Over 0.5 (-120) diff 77.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 0.5 -117 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 0.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-120	-110	Selected
BetOnline	0.5	-119	-109	-
Caesars	0.5	-117	-114	Recommended
theScore Bet	0.5	+230	-320	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✗✗✗–!– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.89 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.4% [individual]
Basis: TB/G 1.01
Base projection 1.01 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.296 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_total_bases Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 56/107 (52%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 1.01
Prop trend: Batter TB L10: 4/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.31 vs season
Player context: Home Batter TB: 30/54 over 0.5 (56%), avg 1.02 | Away Batter TB: 26/53 over 0.5 (49%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter TB: 56/107 over 0.5 (52%), avg 1.01

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 77.4% vs 100% min using selected line 0.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.2% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

▸ K Prop — 26 play(s) (B 7 | C 19)

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — J.T. Ginn Over 4.5 (+100) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.3K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 39.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.79K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
J.T. Ginn: K/9 8.6, proj 6.3K over 5.3 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ron Kulpa — 9.4 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.05x)
Pitch-type matchup: Boston Red Sox whiff% vs Changeup: 32.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs J.T. Ginn: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.8%, L7 19.2%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 46.9% (1 books) — posture note at C

B Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jared Jones Over 5.5 (+119) diff 23.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +119

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 5.33 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+112	-145	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+120	-160	Recommended
DK	5.5	+119	-152	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+116	-148	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 23.7% vs 17% min; cushion +1.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.1% / under 56.9%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jared Jones: K/9 9.8, proj 6.8K over 5.0 IP (season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 30.6% | put-away% 23.7% | xwOBA 0.284 | top pitch: Slider (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Mets whiff% vs Slider: 34.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jared Jones: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.6%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, lineup 20.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; New York Mets 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 0/6; weighted K% 20.2%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 68%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 24.2% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; lineup K% 20.4% (6/9); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.17
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 5.5; cold exact-market hit rate
K% trend: support +3.0 ppts (recent 30.1% vs season 27.1%, proj adj +1.5%)

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 41.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Books strongly against: blended market against 41.2% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree — posture note at C

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 (-149) diff 16.2% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 8.5 -122 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 8.5 -149

Selected market: Over 56.5% / Under 43.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 8.36 | selected line 8.5 | selected market OVER 56.5%

Line distribution: 8.5 at 6 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 8.5 -122 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	7.5	+140	-200	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	8.5	-130	-105	-
BetOnline	8.5	-130	+100	-
BetRivers	8.5	-139	+105	-
Bovada Direct	8.5	-130	+100	-
DK	8.5	-149	+117	Selected
FanDuel	8.5	-122	-104	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Mixed: projection 9.9K vs line 8.5; DIFF% 16.2% vs 17% min; cushion +1.38K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 56.5% / under 43.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Jacob Misiorowski: K/9 14.5, proj 9.9K over 6.0 IP (season 6.0 IP/GS; recent 5.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 38.5% | put-away% 32.5% | xwOBA 0.215 | top pitch: Curveball (46% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Minnesota Twins whiff% vs Curveball: 31.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.03x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 10% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jacob Misiorowski: 4 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 18.8%, split 18.1%, L7 17.4%, season 21.3%, top-6 18.8% (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Minnesota Twins) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 8.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/21 (57%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 9.50 | Season Avg 9.29
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 8.5
K% trend: support +6.5 ppts (recent 47.1% vs season 40.6%, proj adj +3.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.2% vs 17% min using selected line 8.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Matt Boyd Over 4.5 (-145) diff 13.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.4% / Under 44.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 55.4%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 13.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.61K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.4% / under 44.6%)
Matt Boyd: K/9 7.0, proj 5.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Chicago Cubs whiff% vs Slider: 32.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Chicago Cubs 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 22.3%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 22.7% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.3% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 14.2% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Michael McGreevy Over 3.5 (-140) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -140

Selected market: Over 55.1% / Under 44.9%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 55.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+150	-220	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	Recommended
BetOnline	3.5	-133	+103	-
BetRivers	3.5	-132	+100	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-135	+105	-
DK	3.5	-140	+110	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-132	+104	-
Fanatics	3.5	-130	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.7K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 6.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.24K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 55.1% / under 44.9%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Michael McGreevy: K/9 6.7, proj 3.7K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.9% | put-away% 14.7% | xwOBA 0.360 | top pitch: Curveball (26% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Guccione — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: Colorado Rockies whiff% vs Curveball: 33.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 12% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .773
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 23 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Colorado Rockies 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 22.5%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 1; L7 team K% 19.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 10/22 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.70 | Season Avg 3.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Davis Martin Over 3.5 (-123) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -123

Selected market: Over 52.0% / Under 48.0%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 52.0%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 3.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+175	-250	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-125	-105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	3.5	-118	-113	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-130	+100	-
DK	3.5	-123	-104	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	-128	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.6K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 4.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.14K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 52.0% / under 48.0%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Davis Martin: K/9 7.3, proj 3.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 17.2% | xwOBA 0.330 | top pitch: Curveball (40% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Alex Tosi — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Cleveland Guardians whiff% vs Curveball: 23.5% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 47 PA | K% 6.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .439 | OPS 1.096
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 47 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.0%, L7 21.9%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Cleveland Guardians 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 17.7%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 86%; high-contact hitters 4; L7 team K% 21.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 18.2% (7/9); 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 15/22 (68%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.40 | Season Avg 4.86
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -1.46 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.2 ppts (recent 14.7% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -3.1%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal K Prop — Shane Bieber Over 3.5 (-116) diff 0.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -116

Selected market: Over 50.6% / Under 49.4%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 3.38 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 50.6%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 7 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +160; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	3.5	-135	+105	-
BetRivers	3.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-145	+110	-
DK	3.5	-116	-110	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-140	+110	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–– ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.5K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 0.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.01K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 50.6% / under 49.4%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Shane Bieber: K/9 7.6, proj 3.5K over 5.0 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 22.2% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.404 | top pitch: Slider (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Philadelphia Phillies whiff% vs Slider: 31.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .605
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, top-6 19.9%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Philadelphia Phillies 3/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 19.7%; Confirmed Lineup; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 2; L7 team K% 13.1% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.9% (5/6); lineup K% 19.8% (7/9); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 3.50
Prop trend: K L10: 4/8 over 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.2% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — JT Ginn Over 4.5 (-105) diff 35.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 4.5 +102 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -105

Selected market: Over 48.3% / Under 51.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 51.7%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 4.5 +102 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	4.5	-108	-120	-
BetRivers	4.5	+102	-136	Recommended
DK	4.5	-105	-121	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-106	-120	-
Fanatics	4.5	-105	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Model Edge - Supports: projection 6.1K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 35.9% vs 17% min; cushion +1.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 48.3% / under 51.7%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
JT Ginn: K/9 8.6, proj 6.1K over 5.4 IP (season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.3 outs/5.4 IP (6 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.9% | put-away% 22.0% | xwOBA 0.308 | top pitch: Changeup (36% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Ron Kulpa — 9.4 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.05x)
Opponent K profile: composite 23.1%, split 22.7%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8% (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 4/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/23 (44%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: K L10: 7/10 over 4.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.3% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 119 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ryan Gusto Under 4.5 (+106) diff 16.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 +106

Selected market: Over 54.2% / Under 45.8%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 4.38 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 54.2%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 7 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+145	-215	-
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-122	-106	-
BetRivers	4.5	-136	+102	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	-135	+106	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-130	+102	-
Fanatics	4.5	-125	-105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 16.6% vs 17% min; cushion -0.75K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 54.2% / under 45.8%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Ryan Gusto: K/9 8.0, proj 3.8K over 4.1 IP (season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.8% | put-away% 19.2% | xwOBA 0.324 | top pitch: Cutter (27% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Will Little — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Angels whiff% vs Cutter: 18.8% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 14% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .910
BVP K adjustment: 1.03x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.8%, L7 30.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/14 (86%) | Season 12/14 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.00 | Season Avg 2.79
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 under 4.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.6% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 (+116) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 6.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.7% / Under 56.3%

Own-line consensus: 0/5 UNDER | avg line 6.33 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 56.3%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 5 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 6.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 5.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+200	-300	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	6.5	+105	-145	-
BetOnline	6.5	+120	-156	Recommended
BetRivers	6.5	-103	-130	-
DK	6.5	+116	-148	Selected
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 43.7% / under 56.3%); own-line consensus 0/5 OVER (5 books); IN LINE delta +0.20
Jesus Luzardo: K/9 10.7, proj 7.5K over 6.2 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.13
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (6 books) | books against us 0% (6 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Jesús Luzardo Over 6.5 (+100) diff 15.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +100

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 6.5 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.5K vs line 6.5; DIFF% 15.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.99K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%)
Jesús Luzardo: K/9 10.7, proj 7.5K over 6.2 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.4 outs/6.1 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 31.8% | put-away% 23.9% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: Sweeper (48% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Brock Ballou — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Toronto Blue Jays whiff% vs Sweeper: 28.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 31 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 6.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 13/23 (56%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.40 | Season Avg 7.13
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 6.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 15.2% vs 17% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cristian Javier Over 3.5 (+107) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 +107

Selected market: Over 45.6% / Under 54.4%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 3.36 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 54.4%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 3.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 2.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+260	-450	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	3.5	+100	-135	-
BetOnline	3.5	+102	-132	-
BetRivers	3.5	+106	-141	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	3.5	+107	-136	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.51K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.6% / under 54.4%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cristian Javier: K/9 8.3, proj 4.0K over 3.8 IP (season 3.7 IP/GS; recent 3.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 27.3% | put-away% 14.3% | xwOBA 0.346 | top pitch: Changeup (29% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: San Diego Padres whiff% vs Changeup: 30.8% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Cristian Javier: 55 PA | K% 27.3% | BB% 10.9% | AVG .265 | OPS .856
BVP K adjustment: 1.05x from 55 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 21.2%, L7 17.5%, season 21.9%, BVP 27.3%/55 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Diego Padres) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/9 (33%) | L20 3/9 (33%) | Season 3/9 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.56 | Season Avg 2.56
Prop trend: K L10: 3/9 over 3.5
K% trend: support +3.7 ppts (recent 22.1% vs season 18.4%, proj adj +1.9%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.8% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-175) diff 14.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -170 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -175

Selected market: Over 39.9% / Under 60.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 3.21 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 60.1%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 5 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 3.5 -170 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-165	+125	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+280	-525	-
BetOnline	3.5	+134	-175	-
BetRivers	3.5	+133	-180	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	+130	-170	Recommended
DK	3.5	+137	-175	Selected
FanDuel	3.5	+134	-172	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 14.4% vs 17% min; cushion -0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 39.9% / under 60.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.33
Michael Lorenzen: K/9 6.3, proj 3.0K over 4.6 IP (season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 18.8% | put-away% 14.9% | xwOBA 0.366 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chris Guccione — 8.7 K/9 (wide zone, adj 1.01x)
Pitch-type matchup: St. Louis Cardinals whiff% vs Changeup: 29.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 20% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6); 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 12/24 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.20 | Season Avg 3.33
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 3.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.4% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Kumar Rocker Over 5.5 (+101) diff 13.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +225; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+225	-375	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
BetOnline	5.5	+100	-130	-
BetRivers	5.5	+112	-150	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+115	-150	Recommended
DK	5.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+114	-146	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.2K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.5% vs 17% min; cushion +0.74K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Kumar Rocker: K/9 8.6, proj 6.2K over 5.2 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 18.3% | xwOBA 0.325 | top pitch: Slider (41% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: James Jean — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Baltimore Orioles whiff% vs Slider: 38.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.2%, L7 29.1%, season 24.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 5/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/21 (29%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.40 | Season Avg 4.67
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.73 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.0% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.5% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Ian Seymour Under 5.5 (-126) diff 13.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 5.5 -116 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -126

Selected market: Over 47.4% / Under 52.6%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 52.6%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 5.5 -116 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	5.5	-111	-116	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-101	-126	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+104	-132	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 13.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.73K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 47.4% / under 52.6%); own-line consensus 0/2 OVER (2 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Ian Seymour: K/9 10.7, proj 4.8K over 4.4 IP (season 4.3 IP/GS; recent 4.5 IP/5 start(s); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 28.4% | put-away% 20.3% | xwOBA 0.290 | top pitch: Changeup (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Seattle Mariners whiff% vs Changeup: 28.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x)
BVP (active roster) vs Ian Seymour: 21 PA | K% 19.1% | BB% 14.3% | AVG .312 | OPS .991
BVP K adjustment: 0.96x from 21 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 18.2%, L7 19.3%, season 22.9%, BVP 19.1%/21 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Seattle Mariners) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 8/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 32/37 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.10 | Season Avg 2.68
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +3.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 (-138) diff 13.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 3.5 -138 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -138

Selected market: Over 54.7% / Under 45.3%

Own-line consensus: 5/7 OVER | avg line 3.25 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 54.7%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 6 books | 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 3.5 -138 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 2.5 +170; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	2.5	+170	-240	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	2.5	+160	-225	-
BetMGM	3.5	-145	+105	-
BetOnline	3.5	-139	+107	-
Bovada Direct	3.5	-150	+115	-
DK	3.5	-138	+108	SelectedRecommended
FanDuel	3.5	-138	+108	-
Fanatics	3.5	-140	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 13.0% vs 17% min; cushion +0.46K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 54.7% / under 45.3%); own-line consensus 5/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Eduardo Rodriguez: K/9 6.0, proj 4.0K over 5.8 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 20.1% | put-away% 15.2% | xwOBA 0.338 | top pitch: Changeup (24% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers whiff% vs Changeup: 30.0% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 209 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/23 (61%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.00
Prop trend: K L10: 5/10 over 3.5; recent avg down -0.50 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.07) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 13.1% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Sean Manaea Over 5.5 (+124) diff 11.3% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +124

Selected market: Over 42.2% / Under 57.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 5.36 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 5.5 +130 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+230	-400	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+120	-160	-
BetOnline	5.5	+122	-159	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	+130	-170	Recommended
DK	5.5	+124	-158	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	-
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.1K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 11.3% vs 17% min; cushion +0.62K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.2% / under 57.8%); own-line consensus 0/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Sean Manaea: K/9 8.6, proj 6.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 21.6% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.331 | top pitch: Sweeper (31% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Clint Vondrak — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates whiff% vs Sweeper: 31.4% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.09x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
BVP K adjustment: 1.00x from 27 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 8/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/24 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 3.96
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +1.04 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 39.9% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.3% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Emerson Hancock Under 4.5 (-129) diff 11.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 4.5 -129

Selected market: Over 46.9% / Under 53.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 4.5 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 53.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 4.5 -120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	4.5	+115	-149	-
BetRivers	4.5	+100	-134	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-110	-120	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	4.5	+101	-129	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+100	-128	-
Fanatics	4.5	+110	-145	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+100	-135	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.0K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 11.0% vs 17% min; cushion -0.50K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 46.9% / under 53.1%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.00
Emerson Hancock: K/9 8.1, proj 4.0K over 5.4 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.5% | put-away% 18.0% | xwOBA 0.313 | top pitch: Sweeper (37% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Tampa Bay Rays whiff% vs Sweeper: 22.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS .829
BVP K adjustment: 0.97x from 15 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 16.5%, split 15.7%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, active roster 15.9%/6 hitters, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.84x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Supports Bet; Tampa Bay Rays 2/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 2/6; weighted K% 15.7%; Roster Estimate; split coverage 100%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 17.3% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 15.9% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 7/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.50 | Season Avg 5.14
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 4.5; recent avg down -0.64 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 11.0% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Troy Melton Over 5.5 (+122) diff 9.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 42.5% / Under 57.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 5.07 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books | 4.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -145 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +270; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetRivers	4.5	-167	+125	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-145	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+270	-500	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+130	-175	-
BetOnline	5.5	+130	-169	-
DK	5.5	+122	-156	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 6.0K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 9.4% vs 17% min; cushion +0.52K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.5% / under 57.5%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.50
Troy Melton: K/9 8.5, proj 6.0K over 6.0 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 25.8% | put-away% 20.6% | xwOBA 0.275 | top pitch: Split-Finger (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Paul Clemons — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 5/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/12 (33%) | Season 4/12 (33%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.33
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.67 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 27.1% vs season 22.5%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.3% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.4% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 (-169) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 3.5 -169

Selected market: Over 59.3% / Under 40.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/6 UNDER | avg line 3.79 | selected line 3.5 | selected market OVER 59.3%

Line distribution: 3.5 at 3 books | 4.5 at 3 books | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 3.5 -160 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetRivers Over 4.5 +310; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	2.5	+140	-200	-
BetMGM	3.5	-160	+120	Recommended
Bovada Direct	3.5	-170	+130	-
DK	3.5	-169	+132	Selected
BetOnline	4.5	+132	-172	-
BetRivers	4.5	+310	-500	Raw BestVerify
FanDuel	4.5	+132	-170	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 3.8K vs line 3.5; DIFF% 8.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.31K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 59.3% / under 40.7%); own-line consensus 2/6 OVER (6 books); DK LOWER delta -0.33
Justin Wrobleski: K/9 8.5, proj 3.8K over 6.1 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 19.4% | put-away% 17.7% | xwOBA 0.327 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 0% usage)
Pitch-type matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 18.0% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.90x)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
BVP K adjustment: 0.92x from 39 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, active roster 17.4%/6 hitters, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent K Environment: Weak -- Opposes Bet; Arizona Diamondbacks 1/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs LHP; top six 1/6; weighted K% 16.7%; Roster Estimate; low data quality; split coverage 83%; high-contact hitters 3; L7 team K% 21.8% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster K% 17.4% (6 hitters); active-roster hand mix: 10/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 3.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 12/19 (63%) | Season 12/19 (63%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 4.79
Prop trend: K L10: 8/10 over 3.5; recent avg up +1.21 vs season
K% trend: support +10.4 ppts (recent 29.7% vs season 19.3%, proj adj +5.2%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.5% (7 books) | books against us 33% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 116 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup | [!] Pitch-type: opp whiffs below avg vs SP top pitch (×0.90) ✗ Over Ks

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 17% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Logan Webb Over 5.5 (+120) diff 7.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/7 UNDER | avg line 5.25 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 6 books | 4.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -165 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
Bovada Direct	4.5	-165	+125	Recommended
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+115	-155	-
BetOnline	5.5	+120	-156	-
BetRivers	5.5	+128	-175	-
DK	5.5	+120	-153	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	+128	-164	-
Fanatics	5.5	+120	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.9K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 7.2% vs 17% min; cushion +0.40K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 1/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +0.29
Logan Webb: K/9 7.0, proj 5.9K over 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 21.0% | put-away% 18.5% | xwOBA 0.303 | top pitch: Changeup (30% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Paul Clemons — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Detroit Tigers whiff% vs Changeup: 35.1% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 25% usage
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
BVP K adjustment: 1.08x from 53 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Roster Estimate; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team K tendencies, handedness splits & season stats; active-roster hand mix: 6/13 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 8/20 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.00 | Season Avg 5.05
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.3% (8 books) | books against us 14% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.08) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 118 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.2% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Grant Holmes Over 4.5 (-158) diff 5.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -158

Selected market: Over 57.8% / Under 42.2%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 4.64 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 57.8%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 4.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	4.5	-154	+118	-
BetRivers	4.5	-162	+120	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-150	+115	Recommended
DK	4.5	-158	+124	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-154	+120	-
theScore Bet	4.5	+240	-425	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	+125	-165	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.8K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 5.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.26K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 57.8% / under 42.2%); own-line consensus 4/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta -0.17
Grant Holmes: K/9 7.6, proj 4.8K over 4.9 IP (season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.2% | put-away% 15.3% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Slider (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Bellino — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: New York Yankees whiff% vs Slider: 33.5% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.10x)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.051
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 26 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.4% (4/6); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 4.18
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.68 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: Pitch-type: opp whiffs above avg vs SP top pitch (×1.10) ✓ Over Ks | [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 114 vs RHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.7% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 (-153) diff 5.2% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 7.5 -153 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 7.5 -153

Selected market: Over 42.9% / Under 57.1%

Own-line consensus: 6/7 OVER | avg line 6.5 | selected line 7.5 | selected market UNDER 57.1%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 6 books | 5.5 at 1 book | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 7.5 -153 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetOnline Under 6.5 +128; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	5.5	+130	-180	-
BetMGM	6.5	-155	+115	-
BetOnline	6.5	-167	+128	Raw BestVerify
BetRivers	6.5	-152	+114	-
Bovada Direct	6.5	-115	-115	-
FanDuel	6.5	-142	+112	-
Fanatics	6.5	-160	+120	-
DK	7.5	+120	-153	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 7.1K vs line 7.5; DIFF% 5.2% vs 17% min; cushion -0.39K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 42.9% / under 57.1%); own-line consensus 6/7 OVER (7 books); DK HIGHER delta +1.14
Cam Schlittler: K/9 11.9, proj 7.1K over 6.0 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); elite IP floor)
Savant: whiff% 28.0% | put-away% 23.6% | xwOBA 0.268 | top pitch: 4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Dan Bellino — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Atlanta Braves whiff% vs 4-Seam Fastball: 22.3% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.97x)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3%, top-6 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent K Environment: Mixed -- Mixed; Atlanta Braves 4/9 hitters at 20%+ K vs RHP; top six 3/6; weighted K% 23.0%; Confirmed Lineup; medium data quality; split coverage 84%; L7 team K% 20.9% context only
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 20.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.3% (6/9); 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Under 7.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 8.20 | Season Avg 7.12
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 under 7.5; recent avg up +1.08 vs season
K% trend: support +4.6 ppts (recent 35.4% vs season 30.8%, proj adj +2.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.2% vs 17% min using selected line 7.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Cade Povich Over 4.5 (-120) diff 2.9% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -120

Selected market: Over 51.5% / Under 48.5%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market OVER 51.5%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: FanDuel Over 4.5 -113 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +165; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+165	-240	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-135	+100	-
BetOnline	4.5	-120	-108	-
BetRivers	4.5	-117	-114	-
Bovada Direct	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-120	-106	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	-113	-113	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.6K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 2.9% vs 17% min; cushion +0.13K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Supports: selected market agrees (over 51.5% / under 48.5%); own-line consensus 5/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Cade Povich: K/9 7.6, proj 4.6K over 5.0 IP (season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books))
Savant: whiff% 26.6% | put-away% 16.5% | xwOBA 0.333 | top pitch: Curveball (39% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: James Jean — 8.5 K/9 (avg zone, adj 1.00x)
Pitch-type matchup: Texas Rangers whiff% vs Curveball: 23.7% (low vs 24.5% avg, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 21% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Povich: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.431
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.7%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; 7/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/5 (40%) | L20 2/5 (40%) | Season 2/5 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.80 | Season Avg 3.80
Prop trend: K L10: 2/5 over 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Opp lineup wRC+ 120 vs LHP — tough platoon matchup

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.9% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Connor Prielipp Over 5.5 (+109) diff 2.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 +109

Selected market: Over 45.1% / Under 54.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/7 UNDER | avg line 5.38 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 7 books | 4.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 4.5 +210; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	4.5	+210	-325	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	5.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	5.5	-102	-127	-
BetRivers	5.5	-104	-129	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-105	-125	-
DK	5.5	+109	-139	Selected
FanDuel	5.5	-104	-122	-
Fanatics	5.5	+110	-145	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 5.6K vs line 5.5; DIFF% 2.7% vs 17% min; cushion +0.15K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 45.1% / under 54.9%); own-line consensus 0/7 OVER (7 books); IN LINE delta +0.14
Connor Prielipp: K/9 9.5, proj 5.6K over 5.3 IP (season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); elite IP floor skipped: leash not established)
Savant: whiff% 23.3% | put-away% 18.2% | xwOBA 0.311 | top pitch: Curveball (38% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: Chad Whitson — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Milwaukee Brewers whiff% vs Curveball: 32.9% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 17% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Connor Prielipp: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.3%, L7 29.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 28.6%/14 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/15 (47%) | Season 7/15 (47%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: K L10: 4/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 44.8% (8 books) | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.7% vs 17% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked K Prop — Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 (-103) diff 0.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 4.5 +107 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 4.5 -103

Selected market: Over 47.9% / Under 52.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 4.36 | selected line 4.5 | selected market UNDER 52.1%

Line distribution: 4.5 at 6 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 4.5 +107 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 3.5 +180; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	3.5	+180	-260	Raw BestVerify
BetMGM	4.5	-105	-125	-
BetOnline	4.5	+107	-139	Recommended
BetRivers	4.5	-115	-115	-
DK	4.5	-103	-123	Selected
FanDuel	4.5	+102	-130	-
Fanatics	4.5	+100	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Model Edge - Opposes: projection 4.5K vs line 4.5; DIFF% 0.8% vs 17% min; cushion +0.04K vs 1.0 min
Selected line source: draftkings
Market Alignment - Opposes: selected market opposes (over 47.9% / under 52.1%); own-line consensus 1/6 OVER (6 books); IN LINE delta +0.17
Matthew Boyd: K/9 7.0, proj 4.5K over 6.0 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books))
Savant: whiff% 24.1% | put-away% 16.4% | xwOBA 0.329 | top pitch: Slider (43% whiff, 0% usage)
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn — 8.3 K/9 (tight zone, adj 0.99x)
Pitch-type matchup: Kansas City Royals whiff% vs Slider: 31.3% (high vs 24.5% avg, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 98 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .253 | OPS .717
BVP K adjustment: 0.95x from 98 roster PA
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 18.4%/98 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent K Environment: Insufficient -- Confirmed Lineup; not enough reliable hitter K data
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed — 9 players; using team K tendencies & season stats; top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6); 6/9 bats with platoon edge
Prop history (pitcher_strikeouts Over 4.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.10 | Season Avg 4.85
Prop trend: K L10: 3/10 over 4.5; recent avg down -0.75 vs season
K% trend: headwind -6.7 ppts (recent 14.2% vs season 20.9%, proj adj -3.3%)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 45.4% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.8% vs 17% min using selected line 4.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Outs — 12 play(s) (B 1 | C 11)

B Watch Signal ◇ Watch Signal Pitcher Outs — Matthew Boyd Over 17.5 (-165) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 17.5 -145 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -165

Selected market: Over 58.2% / Under 41.8%

Own-line consensus: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.71 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 5 books | 18 at 1 book | 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 17.5 -145 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 18.5 +125; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+120	-
Caesars	17.5	-145	+115	Recommended
DK	17.5	-165	+124	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-166	+124	-
Fanatics	17.5	-150	+105	-
BetOnline	18	+100	-140	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+125	-180	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓✓–✓ ► Watch Signal

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 18.136 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 58.2% / under 41.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/6 OVER | avg line 17.71 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 58.2%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 109)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 109
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 98 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .253 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 18.4%/98 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.0%, split 5.2%, L7 6.5%, season 8.2%, BVP 3.1%/98 PA (adj 0.82x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 7/10 over 17.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 (-104) diff 14.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 17.5 -104 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -104

Selected market: Over 52.4% / Under 47.6%

Own-line consensus: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 17.5 -104 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-110	-120	-
BetOnline	17.5	-125	-115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-130	-110	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-108	-
DK	17.5	-128	-104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-108	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 14.892 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 14.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.16 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.3 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 52.4% / under 47.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 52.4%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104) | Leash assessment adj: -1.0 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 79)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.3 | pitch-count proxy 79
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .773
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 6.5%, split 8.3%, L7 6.5%, season 8.0%, BVP 0.0%/23 PA (adj 0.86x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.20 | Season Avg 16.41
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Emerson Hancock Under 17.5 (+118) diff 12.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +118

Selected market: Over 57.1% / Under 42.9%

Own-line consensus: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 6 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +120 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-160	+115	-
BetOnline	17.5	-140	+100	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-160	+120	RecommendedRaw Best
Caesars	17.5	-152	+114	-
DK	17.5	-157	+118	Selected
Fanatics	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 15.357999999999997 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 12.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.2 IP (xFIP 3.81 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.6 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.1% / under 42.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 5/5 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 57.1%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 outs (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -1.2 outs (short leash, low pitch-count proxy 84, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash short | expected K IP 5.4 | pitch-count proxy 84
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.7%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.3%, split 9.3%, L7 7.4%, season 8.7%, BVP 6.7%/15 PA (adj 0.98x)
Outs leash: hook risk: recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 16.6%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment short leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/21 (43%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 15.50 | Season Avg 16.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -1.12 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesus Luzardo Over 18.5 (+138) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +138

Selected market: Over 39.3% / Under 60.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 18.43 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 6 books | 18 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 18 -120 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is FanDuel Over 18.5 +148; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetOnline	18	-120	-120	Recommended
BetMGM	18.5	+125	-165	-
Caesars	18.5	+134	-179	-
DK	18.5	+138	-184	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+148	-200	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	18.5	+145	-210	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+130	-185	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 20.561999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.02 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 39.3% / under 60.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/6 UNDER | avg line 18.43 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 60.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.9% (7 books) | books against us 17% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Jesús Luzardo Over 18.5 (+145) diff 11.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 +145

Selected market: Over 38.4% / Under 61.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 61.6%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Over 18.5 +145 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 20.561999999999998 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 11.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 6.6 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.6 IP (xFIP 3.02 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.7 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 38.4% / under 61.6%)
Opp batting adj: +0.2 outs (Opp batting (Toronto Blue Jays): wRC+ 95) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 111, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality +0.6 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 111
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jesús Luzardo: 31 PA | K% 19.4% | BB% 12.9% | AVG .333 | OPS .827
Opponent K profile: composite 19.1%, split 16.8%, L7 23.2%, season 19.6%, top-6 18.3%, BVP 19.4%/31 PA (adj 0.91x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.5%, split 8.3%, L7 7.4%, season 7.4%, BVP 12.9%/31 PA (adj 1.00x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.6 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Toronto Blue Jays) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.3% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/20 (40%) | Season 9/23 (39%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.10 | Season Avg 17.83
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +1.27 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 38.4% (1 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Troy Melton Over 17.5 (-140) diff 9.2% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 17.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -140

Selected market: Over 54.6% / Under 45.4%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 17.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 17.5 -135; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-135	+100	Raw BestVerify
BetOnline	17.5	-135	-105	Recommended
Bovada Direct	17.5	-140	+100	-
Caesars	17.5	-140	+107	-
DK	17.5	-140	+106	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-136	+102	-
Fanatics	17.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 19.112 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 9.2% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 3.93 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.6% / under 45.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 54.6%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100) | Leash assessment adj: +0.4 outs (high pitch-count proxy 99)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.1 | pitch-count proxy 99
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.3%, split 6.2%, L7 9.0%, season 7.0% (adj 0.92x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 7/12 (58%) | Season 7/12 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 18.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Cam Schlittler Over 17.5 (-145) diff 8.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 17.5 -125 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -145

Selected market: Over 55.3% / Under 44.7%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 17.5 -125 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-140	+100	-
BetOnline	17.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-155	+115	-
Caesars	17.5	-138	+107	-
DK	17.5	-145	+109	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-154	+114	-
Fanatics	17.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	17.5	-160	+110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 19.037000000000003 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.8 IP (season 5.8 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.7 IP (xFIP 2.89 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.4 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.3% / under 44.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 55.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Atlanta Braves): wRC+ 102) | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.8 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.7 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 89
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 21.8%, L7 20.9%, season 21.3%, top-6 20.6% (adj 0.97x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 7.4%, split 8.2%, L7 5.9%, season 7.8% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Atlanta Braves) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 20.6% (5/6); lineup K% 22.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/24 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 17.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Sean Manaea Under 17.5 (-136) diff 8.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.2% / Under 53.8%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -118 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-105	-130	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-115	-125	-
Caesars	17.5	-105	-127	-
DK	17.5	+102	-136	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-114	-118	RecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	17.5	-110	-130	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 15.982999999999999 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 8.7% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.5 IP (season 5.5 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.1 IP (recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.0 IP (xFIP 4.27 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.2% / under 53.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market UNDER 53.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (neutral leash)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.5 IP | leash +0.1 IP | quality -0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 6.0 | pitch-count proxy 97
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.1%, split 7.6%, L7 11.3%, season 9.4%, BVP 14.8%/27 PA (adj 1.10x)
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.1%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 19/24 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 16.40 | Season Avg 12.21
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 5/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +4.19 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Logan Webb Over 18.5 (-102) diff 7.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Caesars Over 18.5 +111 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 18.5 -102

Selected market: Over 47.1% / Under 52.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%

Line distribution: 18.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: Caesars Over 18.5 +111 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	18.5	-105	-130	-
BetOnline	18.5	+100	-140	-
Bovada Direct	18.5	-105	-135	-
Caesars	18.5	+111	-160	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	18.5	-102	-131	Selected
FanDuel	18.5	+102	-138	-
theScore Bet	18.5	+100	-140	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (22)

Proj 19.949 vs line 18.5 | DIFF% 7.8% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.2 IP (season 6.2 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.0 IP (recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.3 IP (xFIP 3.67 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.5 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.1% / under 52.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/6 UNDER | avg line 18.5 | selected line 18.5 | selected market UNDER 52.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.9 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 104)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.2 IP | leash -0.0 IP | quality +0.3 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 104
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.9%, L7 11.2%, season 9.4%, BVP 5.7%/53 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.2 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.2 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 18.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 19.70 | Season Avg 18.75
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 6/10 over 18.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (7 books) | books against us 0% (7 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Justin Wrobleski Over 17.5 (-155) diff 7.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 17.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 17.5 -155

Selected market: Over 56.9% / Under 43.1%

Own-line consensus: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 8 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 17.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-150	+110	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	17.5	-155	+115	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-170	+130	-
Caesars	17.5	-157	+118	-
DK	17.5	-155	+117	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-158	+118	-
Fanatics	17.5	-180	+125	-
theScore Bet	17.5	-165	+115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (23)

Proj 18.745 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 7.1% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 6.3 IP (season 6.3 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.0 IP (xFIP 4.17 vs lg 4.20); projected 6.2 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.9% / under 43.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 7/7 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 outs (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98) | Pitch-count adj: -0.7 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.7 outs (deep leash, high pitch-count proxy 101, low-K contact opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 6.3 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality +0.0 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash deep | expected K IP 6.2 | pitch-count proxy 101
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 9.8%, split 10.5%, L7 10.9%, season 8.8%, BVP 7.7%/39 PA (adj 1.08x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: season leash 6.3 IP/GS
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.0 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 17.7%
Outs leash: deep-start support: assessment deep leash
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Over 17.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/19 (74%) | Season 14/19 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 18.40 | Season Avg 18.47
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 8/10 over 17.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 17.5 (-110) diff 6.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel Under 17.5 -108 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 -110

Selected market: Over 51.0% / Under 49.0%

Own-line consensus: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 7 books

Recommended shop: FanDuel Under 17.5 -108 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Caesars Under 17.5 -108; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	17.5	-125	-110	-
BetOnline	17.5	-120	-120	-
Bovada Direct	17.5	-125	-115	-
Caesars	17.5	-124	-108	Raw BestVerify
DK	17.5	-120	-110	Selected
FanDuel	17.5	-125	-108	Recommended
theScore Bet	17.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 16.299 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 6.9% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.9 IP (season 5.9 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj -0.1 IP (recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj -0.2 IP (xFIP 4.54 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.7 IP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.0% / under 49.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 6/6 OVER | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: -0.2 outs (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107) | Pitch-count adj: -0.3 outs | Leash assessment adj: -0.2 outs (patient opponent)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.9 IP | leash -0.1 IP | quality -0.2 IP
Pitcher assessment: quality season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand | leash normal | expected K IP 5.8 | pitch-count proxy 92
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 8.7%, split 9.8%, L7 6.3%, season 9.8%, BVP 8.1%/209 PA (adj 1.01x)
Outs leash: hook risk: low-K contact opponent 19.9%
Outs leash: hook risk: assessment patient opponent BB% 9.8%
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/23 (35%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.30 | Season Avg 17.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg down -0.48 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Outs — Matt Boyd Under 17.5 (+135) diff 3.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 17.5 +135

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 17.5 | selected line 17.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 17.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 17.5 +135 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 16.968 vs line 17.5 | DIFF% 3.0% (min 10%)
Basis: baseline 5.6 IP (season 5.6 IP/GS, weight 100%); leash adj +0.2 IP (recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s), weight 20%); quality adj +0.1 IP (xFIP 4.07 vs lg 4.20); projected 5.8 IP
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 outs (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104) | Pitch-count adj: -0.4 outs | Leash assessment adj: +0.0 outs (assessment unavailable)
Outs projection components: baseline 5.6 IP | leash +0.2 IP | quality +0.1 IP
Pitcher assessment: unavailable -- outs held to research
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opponent BB profile: composite 10.5%, split 10.6%, L7 10.0%, season 10.8% (adj 1.12x)
Outs leash: deep-start support: recent leash 6.5 IP/start
Outs leash: hook risk: patient opponent BB% 10.5%
Outs leash: hook risk: missing pitcher assessment
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_outs Under 17.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/13 (46%) | Season 6/13 (46%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 17.60 | Season Avg 16.77
Prop trend: Pitcher Outs L10: 3/10 under 17.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 40.1% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Hits Allowed — 13 play(s) (C 13)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — J.T. Ginn Under 5.5 (+120) diff 32.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +120

Selected market: Over 57.5% / Under 42.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 3.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 32.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.76 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.22, BB% 10.6%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.4 IP/GS; recent 5.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (1 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.5% / under 42.5%)
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.95x (Opp batting (Boston Red Sox): wRC+ 101)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs J.T. Ginn: 8 PA | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.0%, split 22.8%, L7 19.2%, season 21.9%, BVP 25.0%/8 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Boston Red Sox) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 16/23 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.70 | Season Avg 3.87
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.83 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 42.5% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael Lorenzen Over 6.5 (+110) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -155 | alt rescue

Displayed bet: Over 6.5 +110

Selected market: Over 44.5% / Under 55.5%

Own-line consensus: 2/4 OVER | avg line 6.1 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%

Line distribution: 6.5 at 3 books | 5.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -155 | alt rescue

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Over 6.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-185	+135	-
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	Recommended
Bovada Direct	6.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	6.5	+110	-146	Selected
theScore Bet	6.5	+110	-160	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 7.8 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.57 over 4.4 IP (WHIP 1.93, BB% 8.3%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 44.5% / under 55.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/4 OVER | avg line 6.1 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.14x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 6.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.70 | Season Avg 6.50
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 6.5; recent avg down -0.80 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 49.6% (5 books) | split consensus 50% (5 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Logan Webb Under 5.5 (+101) diff 12.7% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +101

Selected market: Over 53.5% / Under 46.5%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 5.5 +110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 5.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
Bovada Direct	5.5	-145	+105	-
DK	5.5	-134	+101	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-155	+110	Recommended
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 12.7% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.80 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.06, BB% 6.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.5% / under 46.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 0.99x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/20 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.40
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 12.7% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Emerson Hancock Under 5.5 (-134) diff 10.9% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -134

Selected market: Over 46.5% / Under 53.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	+105	-140	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-125	-115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	+101	-134	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-110	-130	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 4.9 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 10.9% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.85 over 5.2 IP (WHIP 1.11, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.5% / under 53.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 53.5%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.7%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 4.60 | Season Avg 4.57
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 7/10 under 5.5; strong exact-market hit rate

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 10.9% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Shane Bieber Under 5.5 (+100) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.3% / Under 46.7%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +100 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-133	+100	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-130	-110	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-130	-110	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.45, BB% 10.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.3% / under 46.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.3%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.05x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .605
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, top-6 19.9%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.9% (5/6); lineup K% 19.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/8 (50%) | L20 4/8 (50%) | Season 4/8 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.25 | Season Avg 5.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/8 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Davis Martin Over 5.5 (-110) diff 9.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Over 5.5 -110 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -110

Selected market: Over 48.1% / Under 51.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Fanatics Over 5.5 -110 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 6.0 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 9.1% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.39, BB% 7.2%)
Selected line source: fanatics (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 48.1% / under 51.9%)
Opp batting adj: -0.1 hits, contact 1.11x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 47 PA | K% 6.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .439 | OPS 1.096
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.0%, L7 21.9%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 18.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 11/22 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 6.00 | Season Avg 5.59
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.1% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.1% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 (-120) diff 7.3% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 -120

Selected market: Over 49.0% / Under 51.0%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-115	-115	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-110	-120	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-125	-115	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 5.1 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 7.3% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.05 over 4.7 IP (WHIP 1.44, BB% 9.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.7 IP; outs market 17.1 outs/5.7 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 49.0% / under 51.0%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market UNDER 51.0%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Miami Marlins): wRC+ 101)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.5%, split 18.7%, L7 18.8%, season 21.5% (adj 0.92x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Miami Marlins) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 4/11 (36%) | Season 4/11 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.20 | Season Avg 5.36
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.3% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Justin Wrobleski Over 5.5 (-142) diff 5.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -142

Selected market: Over 54.9% / Under 45.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 5.5 -135 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-135	+100	RecommendedRaw Best
Bovada Direct	5.5	-135	-105	-
DK	5.5	-142	+107	Selected
Fanatics	5.5	-140	+100	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.8 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 5.5% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.92 over 5.9 IP (WHIP 1.14, BB% 5.1%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.8% / under 45.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 54.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.08x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 11/19 (58%) | Season 11/19 (58%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.30 | Season Avg 5.32
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 over 5.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 5.5% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Eduardo Rodriguez Under 6.5 (-161) diff 4.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 6.5 -161 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 6.5 -161

Selected market: Over 42.3% / Under 57.7%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books | 6.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 6.5 -161 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +120; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-150	+110	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-160	+120	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-
DK	6.5	+121	-161	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 6.2 vs line 6.5 | DIFF% 4.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.02 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.37, BB% 8.0%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.3% / under 57.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.75 | selected line 6.5 | selected market UNDER 57.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.2 hits, contact 1.06x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 6.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 18/23 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.39
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 6/10 under 6.5; recent avg up +0.41 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.6% vs 15% min using selected line 6.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Michael McGreevy Over 5.5 (-117) diff 3.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 5.5 -117

Selected market: Over 50.4% / Under 49.6%

Own-line consensus: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 5.5 -117 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-130	-110	-
DK	5.5	-117	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
theScore Bet	5.5	-125	-115	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.7 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 3.6% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.08 over 5.1 IP (WHIP 1.34, BB% 6.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 50.4% / under 49.6%)
Consensus at own lines: 3/3 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 50.4%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.02x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .773
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Over 5.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.80 | Season Avg 5.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 over 5.5; recent avg up +0.62 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matthew Boyd Under 5.5 (+111) diff 1.8% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +111

Selected market: Over 55.7% / Under 44.3%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 5.5 +115 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-155	+115	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	5.5	-147	+111	Selected
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 5.4 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 1.8% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 5.7 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 55.7% / under 44.3%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 hits, contact 1.04x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 98 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .253 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 18.4%/98 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 1.8% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Sean Manaea Under 5.5 (+122) Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 5.5 +122 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +122

Selected market: Over 57.9% / Under 42.1%

Own-line consensus: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 5.5 +122 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	5.5	-125	-105	-
Bovada Direct	5.5	-155	+115	-
DK	5.5	-162	+122	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	5.5	-170	+120	-
theScore Bet	5.5	-150	+105	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 1.06 over 5.5 IP (WHIP 1.41, BB% 8.2%)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 57.9% / under 42.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 4/4 OVER | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 0.94x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 16/24 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.50 | Season Avg 4.17
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 4/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +1.33 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Hits Allowed — Matt Boyd Under 5.5 (+100) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 5.5 +100

Selected market: Over 53.8% / Under 46.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 5.5 | selected line 5.5 | selected market OVER 53.8%

Line distribution: 5.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: Bovada Direct Under 5.5 +100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 5.5 vs line 5.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 15%)
Basis: H/IP 0.91 over 6.0 IP (WHIP 1.20, BB% 6.8%)
Selected line source: bovada_direct (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (1 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.8% / under 46.2%)
Opp batting adj: +0.1 hits, contact 1.01x (Opp batting (Chicago Cubs): wRC+ 104)
Opponent K profile: composite 22.1%, split 22.4%, L7 22.7%, season 21.8%, top-6 21.0% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Chicago Cubs) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.0% (5/6); lineup K% 21.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_hits_allowed Under 5.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/13 (54%) | Season 7/13 (54%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 5.60 | Season Avg 5.31
Prop trend: Pitcher Hits Allowed L10: 5/10 under 5.5; recent avg up +0.29 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.2% (1 books)

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 15% min using selected line 5.5 — posture note at D

▸ Pitcher Earned Runs — 19 play(s) (C 19)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Erik Miller Over 0.5 (+200) diff 100.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 0.5 +200

Selected market: Over 30.9% / Under 69.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Over 0.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✓✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.0 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 100.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.07 over 3.2 IP (xFIP 3.84, ERA 2.30)
Selected line source: betmgm (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Workload blend: 3.2 IP (MEDIUM; default 5.0 IP; recent 1.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 30.9% / under 69.1%)
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.95x (Opp batting (Athletics): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Erik Miller: 8 PA | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .125 | OPS .250
Opponent K profile: composite 27.6%, split 29.6%, L7 24.0%, season 22.8%, BVP 37.5%/8 PA (adj 1.12x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Athletics) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 0/10 (0%) | L20 2/20 (10%) | Season 6/40 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.25
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 0/10 over 0.5; recent avg down -0.25 vs season

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 30.9% (1 books)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Jared Jones Over 1.5 (-144) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -144

Selected market: Over 55.2% / Under 44.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -144 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-155	+115	-
DK	1.5	-144	+109	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.48 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 3.76, ERA 3.60)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.7 IP/GS; recent 5.4 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.8 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.2% / under 44.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (New York Mets): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Jared Jones: 7 PA | K% 42.9% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 22.2%, split 21.6%, L7 24.2%, season 22.7%, lineup 20.4% (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Mets) confirmed (9 players); lineup K% 20.4% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 6/12 (50%) | Season 6/12 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 1.5

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Ryan Gusto Over 1.5 (-147) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -147

Selected market: Over 55.5% / Under 44.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	-160	+120	-
DK	1.5	-147	+110	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.37 over 3.8 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 4.54)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 3.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.0 IP/GS; recent 3.6 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 55.6% / under 44.4%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 55.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Angels): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Ryan Gusto: 15 PA | K% 26.7% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .214 | OPS .910
Opponent K profile: composite 26.4%, split 24.8%, L7 30.2%, season 25.3%, BVP 26.7%/15 PA (adj 1.09x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Angels) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/14 (36%) | Season 5/14 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.80 | Season Avg 1.71
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Troy Melton Over 1.5 (-178) diff 20.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 -178

Selected market: Over 59.9% / Under 40.1%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book | 2.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Over 1.5 -178 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Over 2.5 +130; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
DK	1.5	-178	+133	SelectedRecommended
BetMGM	2.5	+130	-175	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 1.8 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 2.83 over 5.8 IP (xFIP 3.93, ERA 1.48)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.8 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 5.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.1 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 59.9% / under 40.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 59.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (San Francisco Giants): wRC+ 100)
Opponent K profile: composite 21.2%, split 20.8%, L7 22.0%, season 20.9% (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (San Francisco Giants) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 3/12 (25%) | Season 3/12 (25%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 1.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Shane Bieber Under 3.5 (-147) diff 17.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -147 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -147

Selected market: Over 44.3% / Under 55.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 1 book | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -147 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +110; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-150	+110	Raw BestVerify
DK	3.5	+111	-147	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 17.1% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.29 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.57, ERA 4.35)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.9 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 44.3% / under 55.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 3 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 55.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Philadelphia Phillies): wRC+ 98)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Shane Bieber: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 5.1% | AVG .270 | OPS .605
Opponent K profile: composite 18.2%, split 19.2%, L7 13.1%, season 23.0%, top-6 19.9%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.89x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Philadelphia Phillies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.9% (5/6); lineup K% 19.8% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/8 (62%) | L20 5/8 (62%) | Season 5/8 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.62 | Season Avg 2.62
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/8 under 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Eduardo Rodriguez Over 2.5 (-151) diff 16.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -151 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -151

Selected market: Over 56.3% / Under 43.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -151 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-155	+115	-
DK	2.5	-151	+114	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.9 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 16.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.54, ERA 3.37)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.9 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 56.3% / under 43.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 56.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.03x (Opp batting (Los Angeles Dodgers): wRC+ 107)
BVP (active roster) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 209 PA | K% 19.6% | BB% 8.1% | AVG .333 | OPS .970
Opponent K profile: composite 19.9%, split 20.7%, L7 18.0%, season 20.4%, BVP 19.6%/209 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Los Angeles Dodgers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 6/23 (26%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.90 | Season Avg 1.78
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 2/10 over 2.5; cold exact-market hit rate

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Justin Wrobleski Over 2.5 (-105) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -105

Selected market: Over 47.8% / Under 52.2%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -105 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-120	-
DK	2.5	-105	-127	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-115	-125	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓!✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.8 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.18 over 5.9 IP (xFIP 4.17, ERA 3.92)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.9 IP (HIGH; season 6.3 IP/GS; recent 6.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 47.8% / under 52.2%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 52.2%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Arizona Diamondbacks): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Justin Wrobleski: 39 PA | K% 12.8% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .306 | OPS .748
Opponent K profile: composite 17.7%, split 15.8%, L7 21.8%, season 19.3%, BVP 12.8%/39 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Arizona Diamondbacks) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/19 (37%) | Season 7/19 (37%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.26
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 48.6% (3 books) | books against us 0% (3 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Emerson Hancock Under 2.5 (-163) diff 12.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -163

Selected market: Over 42.1% / Under 57.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -150 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -150; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+122	-163	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 2.2 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 12.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.57 over 5.2 IP (xFIP 3.81, ERA 3.16)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.2 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 42.1% / under 57.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 57.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Tampa Bay Rays): wRC+ 101)
BVP (active roster) vs Emerson Hancock: 15 PA | K% 13.3% | BB% 6.7% | AVG .357 | OPS .829
Opponent K profile: composite 16.6%, split 15.7%, L7 17.3%, season 19.1%, BVP 13.3%/15 PA (adj 0.85x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Tampa Bay Rays) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 14/21 (67%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.05
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.25 vs season

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 (-155) diff 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 3.5 -155

Selected market: Over 43.2% / Under 56.8%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.83 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books | 3.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 3.5 -155 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-160	+115	Raw BestVerify
Fanatics	2.5	-165	+115	-
DK	3.5	+116	-155	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 3.2 vs line 3.5 | DIFF% 8.6% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 6.24 over 4.4 IP (xFIP 4.76, ERA 7.33)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.4 IP (HIGH; season 4.6 IP/GS; recent 4.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 4.5 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.2% / under 56.8%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.83 | selected line 3.5 | selected market UNDER 56.8%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.07x (Opp batting (St. Louis Cardinals): wRC+ 96)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael Lorenzen: 12 PA | K% 8.3% | BB% 8.3% | AVG .455 | OPS 1.500
Opponent K profile: composite 18.4%, split 19.6%, L7 19.4%, season 20.4%, top-6 18.7%, BVP 8.3%/12 PA (adj 0.90x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (St. Louis Cardinals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.7% (5/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 3.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 15/24 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.90 | Season Avg 3.46
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 7/10 under 3.5; recent avg down -0.56 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.6% vs 20% min using selected line 3.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Grant Holmes Under 2.5 (-101) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -101

Selected market: Over 53.1% / Under 46.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -101 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-130	-105	-
DK	2.5	-132	-101	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.32 over 4.7 IP (xFIP 4.53, ERA 3.51)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.0 IP; outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (6 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 53.1% / under 46.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 53.1%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (New York Yankees): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Grant Holmes: 26 PA | K% 15.4% | BB% 7.7% | AVG .333 | OPS 1.051
Opponent K profile: composite 22.3%, split 19.9%, L7 27.3%, season 24.6%, top-6 22.4%, BVP 15.4%/26 PA (adj 0.99x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (New York Yankees) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.4% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 12/22 (55%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 2.00
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 under 2.5; recent avg down -0.30 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Davis Martin Over 2.5 (+102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗✓–✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.64 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 3.94, ERA 5.56)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.0 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.4 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: -0.1 ER, contact/damage 1.05x (Opp batting (Cleveland Guardians): wRC+ 95)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Davis Martin: 47 PA | K% 6.4% | BB% 12.8% | AVG .439 | OPS 1.096
Opponent K profile: composite 17.9%, split 16.0%, L7 21.9%, season 22.1%, top-6 18.8%, BVP 6.4%/47 PA (adj 0.88x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Cleveland Guardians) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 18.8% (6/6); lineup K% 18.2% (7/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 8/22 (36%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.50 | Season Avg 2.55
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 5/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.95 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.4% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Connor Prielipp Under 2.5 (-156) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -140 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -140; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+100	-140	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+117	-156	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+100	-140	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.19 over 5.0 IP (xFIP 4.10, ERA 4.46)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.0 IP (HIGH; season 5.2 IP/GS; recent 5.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.2 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.99x (Opp batting (Milwaukee Brewers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Connor Prielipp: 14 PA | K% 28.6% | BB% 7.1% | AVG .231 | OPS .747
Opponent K profile: composite 24.9%, split 24.3%, L7 29.6%, season 21.4%, top-6 22.2%, BVP 28.6%/14 PA (adj 1.06x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Milwaukee Brewers) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 22.2% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 8/15 (53%) | Season 8/15 (53%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 3.30 | Season Avg 2.73
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.57 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Michael McGreevy Over 2.5 (+102) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +102

Selected market: Over 46.3% / Under 53.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +102 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-105	-130	-
DK	2.5	+102	-135	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.60 over 5.1 IP (xFIP 4.16, ERA 4.34)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.1 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 4.7 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 46.3% / under 53.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.01x (Opp batting (Colorado Rockies): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Michael McGreevy: 23 PA | K% 17.4% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .318 | OPS .773
Opponent K profile: composite 21.3%, split 22.3%, L7 19.8%, season 22.8%, top-6 21.7%, BVP 17.4%/23 PA (adj 0.97x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Colorado Rockies) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 21.7% (4/6); lineup K% 23.3% (6/9)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 6/20 (30%) | Season 7/22 (32%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.60 | Season Avg 2.18
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.42 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 46.9% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Kumar Rocker Under 2.5 (-156) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -156

Selected market: Over 43.1% / Under 56.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 2.5 -155 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 2.5 -155; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+115	-155	Raw BestVerify
DK	2.5	+117	-156	Selected
Fanatics	2.5	+110	-155	Recommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.3 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.33 over 4.9 IP (xFIP 4.14, ERA 4.43)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.9 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 5.3 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.1 IP; outs market 16.4 outs/5.5 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 43.1% / under 56.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.98x (Opp batting (Baltimore Orioles): wRC+ 98)
BVP (active roster) vs Kumar Rocker: 2 PA | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .000 | OPS .000
Opponent K profile: composite 25.6%, split 24.2%, L7 29.1%, season 24.4% (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Baltimore Orioles) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 13/21 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.70 | Season Avg 2.33
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5; recent avg up +0.37 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 (+116) diff 8.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 +116 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 +116

Selected market: Over 43.3% / Under 56.7%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 +116 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+110	-150	-
DK	2.5	+116	-154	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.7 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 8.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 5.09 over 4.5 IP (xFIP 5.08, ERA 3.58)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.0 IP/GS; recent 3.7 IP/5 start(s); outs market 14.5 outs/4.8 IP (7 books))
Selected market agrees: NO (over 43.3% / under 56.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 56.7%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Houston Astros): wRC+ 103)
Opponent K profile: composite 19.7%, L7 17.9%, season 21.5% (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Houston Astros) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 9/20 (45%) | Season 9/22 (41%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 2.14
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 4/10 over 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.8% (2 books) | books against us 0% (2 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Sean Manaea Over 2.5 (-139) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 2.5 -139

Selected market: Over 54.3% / Under 45.7%

Own-line consensus: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 2.5 -139 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-140	+105	-
DK	2.5	-139	+104	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	-140	+100	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✓––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.6 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.31 over 5.5 IP (xFIP 4.27, ERA 4.00)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.5 IP (HIGH; season 5.5 IP/GS; recent 5.8 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.0 IP; outs market 17.5 outs/5.8 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 54.3% / under 45.7%)
Consensus at own lines: 2/2 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 54.3%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 0.97x (Opp batting (Pittsburgh Pirates): wRC+ 104)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Sean Manaea: 27 PA | K% 22.2% | BB% 14.8% | AVG .087 | OPS .440
Opponent K profile: composite 25.2%, split 25.1%, L7 28.1%, season 24.1%, BVP 22.2%/27 PA (adj 1.07x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Pittsburgh Pirates) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Over 2.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 5/24 (21%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.30 | Season Avg 1.96
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/10 over 2.5; recent avg up +0.34 vs season

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Logan Webb Under 2.5 (-136) diff 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -136

Selected market: Over 46.1% / Under 53.9%

Own-line consensus: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 3 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -136 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	+105	-145	-
DK	2.5	+103	-136	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best
Fanatics	2.5	+105	-150	-

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 2.4 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 4.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.64 over 6.0 IP (xFIP 3.67, ERA 3.85)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 6.0 IP (HIGH; season 6.2 IP/GS; recent 6.2 IP/5 start(s); assessment 6.2 IP; outs market 18.5 outs/6.2 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: YES (over 46.1% / under 53.9%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/2 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market UNDER 53.9%
Opp batting adj: +0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.00x (Opp batting (Detroit Tigers): wRC+ 102)
BVP (active roster) vs Logan Webb: 53 PA | K% 32.1% | BB% 5.7% | AVG .225 | OPS .691
Opponent K profile: composite 22.9%, split 22.1%, L7 20.1%, season 22.6%, BVP 32.1%/53 PA (adj 1.01x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Detroit Tigers) not yet posted — using team contact profile & season stats
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 10/20 (50%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.40 | Season Avg 2.60
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 4.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Matthew Boyd Under 2.5 (-106) Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -106

Selected market: Over 51.9% / Under 48.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -106 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-125	-110	-
DK	2.5	-125	-106	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 3.93 over 5.7 IP (xFIP 4.07, ERA 3.36)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 5.7 IP (HIGH; season 5.6 IP/GS; recent 6.5 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.8 IP; outs market 17.7 outs/5.9 IP (7 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 51.9% / under 48.1%)
Consensus at own lines: 1/1 OVER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 51.9%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.02x (Opp batting (Kansas City Royals): wRC+ 99)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Matthew Boyd: 98 PA | K% 18.4% | BB% 3.1% | AVG .253 | OPS .717
Opponent K profile: composite 19.6%, split 22.3%, L7 14.3%, season 21.0%, top-6 19.6%, BVP 18.4%/98 PA (adj 0.93x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Kansas City Royals) confirmed (9 players); top-6 K% 19.6% (4/6)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 8/13 (62%) | Season 8/13 (62%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.00 | Season Avg 2.23
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 6/10 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Pitcher Earned Runs — Cade Povich Under 2.5 (-113) Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 2.5 -113

Selected market: Over 50.5% / Under 49.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%

Line distribution: 2.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 2.5 -113 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	2.5	-110	-125	-
DK	2.5	-118	-113	SelectedRecommendedRaw Best

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 2.5 vs line 2.5 | DIFF% 0.0% (min 20%)
Basis: run/9 4.42 over 4.8 IP (xFIP 4.34, ERA 4.14)
Selected line source: draftkings
Workload blend: 4.8 IP (HIGH; season 4.9 IP/GS; recent 4.9 IP/5 start(s); assessment 5.3 IP; outs market 15.5 outs/5.2 IP (8 books); recent return/ramp penalty)
Selected market agrees: NO (over 50.5% / under 49.5%)
Consensus at own lines: 0/1 UNDER | avg line 2.5 | selected line 2.5 | selected market OVER 50.5%
Opp batting adj: -0.0 ER, contact/damage 1.04x (Opp batting (Texas Rangers): wRC+ 100)
BVP (confirmed lineup) vs Cade Povich: 9 PA | K% 11.1% | BB% 0.0% | AVG .500 | OPS 1.431
Opponent K profile: composite 21.7%, split 21.7%, L7 26.1%, season 22.8%, BVP 11.1%/9 PA (adj 0.98x)
Opp lineup: Opposing lineup (Texas Rangers) confirmed (9 players)
Prop history (pitcher_earned_runs Under 2.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/5 (60%) | L20 3/5 (60%) | Season 3/5 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 2.20 | Season Avg 2.20
Prop trend: Pitcher Earned Runs L10: 3/5 under 2.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 0.0% vs 20% min using selected line 2.5 — posture note at D

▸ Batter Hits — 29 play(s) (C 29)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jarren Duran Under 1.5 (-269) diff 49.8% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -269

Selected market: Over 31.5% / Under 68.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -269 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+220	-300	-
BetOnline	1.5	+209	-286	-
DK	1.5	+198	-269	SelectedRecommended

Signal Breakdown: ✓!!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.75 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 49.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.78 (AVG 0.202)
Base projection 0.78 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.261 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.5%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 89/109 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 0.78
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 45/54 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.87 | Away Batter Hits: 44/55 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.69 | Day Batter Hits: 89/109 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.78

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Sogard Under 1.5 (-257) diff 42.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -244 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+182	-244	Recommended
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.86 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.88 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Masataka Yoshida Under 1.5 (+200) diff 42.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 +200

Selected market: Over 68.4% / Under 31.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market OVER 68.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.87 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 42.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: NO
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 31.6% (1 books)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 42.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pedro Ramirez Under 1.5 (-250) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -250

Selected market: Over 32.9% / Under 67.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -250 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.233)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 7/33 (21%) | L5 3/12 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/43 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 35/43 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 69/86 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jose Ramirez Under 1.5 (-267) diff 41.2% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -267

Selected market: Over 31.7% / Under 68.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 2 books | 1.5 at 2 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -263 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is BetMGM Under 0.5 +175; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-235	+175	Raw BestVerify
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	Recommended
DK	1.5	+196	-267	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 0.88 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 41.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.86 (AVG 0.233)
Base projection 0.86 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.389 (27 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.3%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 7/33 (21%) | L5 3/12 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 69/86 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.70 | Season Avg 0.86
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/43 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.86 | Away Batter Hits: 35/43 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 69/86 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.86

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 41.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Wilyer Abreu Under 1.5 (-235) diff 35.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -235

Selected market: Over 34.2% / Under 65.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+174	-235	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.97 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 35.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.98 (AVG 0.256)
Base projection 0.98 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.330 (79 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.8%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 12/39 (31%) | L5 9/18 (50%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 81/113 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 0.98
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 43/58 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.97 | Away Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 81/113 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.98

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 35.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Steven Kwan Under 1.5 (-227) diff 34.4% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -227

Selected market: Over 34.9% / Under 65.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -227 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+169	-227	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 0.98 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.263)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.306 (17 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.1%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 16/41 (39%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 83/108 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.69 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/53 under 1.5 (79%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 41/55 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.87 | Day Batter Hits: 83/108 under 1.5 (77%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Michael Busch Under 1.5 (-212) diff 34.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -212 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -212

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -212 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	-
DK	1.5	+158	-212	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.99 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 34.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.92 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.92 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.357 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 11/40 (28%) | L5 5/20 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 91/117 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.92
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 0.98 | Away Batter Hits: 47/58 under 1.5 (81%), avg 0.86 | Day Batter Hits: 91/117 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.92

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 34.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ivan Herrera Under 1.5 (-220) diff 32.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -220

Selected market: Over 35.6% / Under 64.4%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -220 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+163	-220	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 32.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.91 (AVG 0.244)
Base projection 0.91 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.326 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.4%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 11/42 (26%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/116 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 0.91
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 51/61 under 1.5 (84%), avg 0.84 | Away Batter Hits: 42/55 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 93/116 under 1.5 (80%), avg 0.91

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 32.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alex Bregman Under 1.5 (-222) diff 31.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -222

Selected market: Over 35.4% / Under 64.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -222 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+165	-222	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.02 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.9% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.97 (AVG 0.246)
Base projection 0.97 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.316 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.6%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 87/115 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 0.97
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 49/59 under 1.5 (83%), avg 0.85 | Away Batter Hits: 38/56 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.11 | Day Batter Hits: 87/115 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.97

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.9% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 (-204) diff 31.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -204

Selected market: Over 36.9% / Under 63.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -204 | exact

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!–! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.03 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 31.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.02 (AVG 0.269)
Base projection 1.02 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.249 (47 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: betonlineag (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 9/37 (24%) | L5 4/20 (20%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 72/101 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.02
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/51 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.00 | Away Batter Hits: 36/50 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 72/101 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 31.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — JJ Wetherholt Under 1.5 (-261) diff 30.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -261

Selected market: Over 32.1% / Under 67.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+185	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+192	-261	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.05 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 30.2% [individual]
Basis: H/G 0.95 (AVG 0.246)
Base projection 0.95 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.289 (50 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.9%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 6/35 (17%) | L5 3/17 (18%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 80/111 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.60 | Season Avg 0.95
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 9/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.35 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 40/57 under 1.5 (70%), avg 0.89 | Away Batter Hits: 40/54 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.02 | Day Batter Hits: 80/111 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.95

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 30.2% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Chase DeLauter Under 1.5 (-256) diff 28.3% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -256

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
theScore Bet	0.5	+200	-260	-
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	RecommendedRaw Best
BetOnline	1.5	+190	-256	-
DK	1.5	+189	-256	Selected

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.08 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 28.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.05 (AVG 0.279)
Base projection 1.05 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.290 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 0/3 UNDER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 10/40 (25%) | L5 6/20 (30%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/100 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.05
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/54 under 1.5 (65%), avg 1.13 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 69/100 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 28.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 1.5 (-208) diff 27.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -208

Selected market: Over 36.7% / Under 63.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -200 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+150	-200	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	-
DK	1.5	+155	-208	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.09 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 27.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.288)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.260 (53 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.3%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 17/46 (37%) | L5 6/23 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 78/112 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.70 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 3/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.58 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 42/59 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.10 | Away Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 78/112 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 27.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nico Hoerner Under 1.5 (-224) diff 26.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: Fanatics Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -224

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 5 books

Recommended shop: Fanatics Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+167	-224	Selected
Fanatics	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.10 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.257)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.361 (33 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/4 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Recent form: L10 12/40 (30%) | L5 6/21 (29%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 44/58 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.00 | Day Batter Hits: 88/116 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 1.5 (-189) diff 26.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -172 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -189

Selected market: Over 38.8% / Under 61.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -172 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +260; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+135	-185	-
BetOnline	1.5	+132	-172	Recommended
DK	1.5	+141	-189	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-375	+260	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.287)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.283 (44 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 61.2%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 12/37 (32%) | L5 8/20 (40%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 85/118 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.20 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/59 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.12 | Away Batter Hits: 44/59 under 1.5 (75%), avg 1.03 | Day Batter Hits: 85/118 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jackson Chourio Under 1.5 (-259) diff 26.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -259

Selected market: Over 32.3% / Under 67.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -259 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+195	-275	-
BetOnline	1.5	+195	-263	-
DK	1.5	+191	-259	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.11 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 26.0% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.13 (AVG 0.274)
Base projection 1.13 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.276 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.7%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 9/38 (24%) | L5 5/18 (28%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 59/83 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/44 under 1.5 (77%), avg 1.05 | Away Batter Hits: 25/39 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.23 | Day Batter Hits: 59/83 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 26.0% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 1.5 (-197) diff 22.6% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -197

Selected market: Over 37.9% / Under 62.1%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -192 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +280; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+146	-192	Recommended
DK	1.5	+147	-197	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-400	+280	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.16 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.12 (AVG 0.286)
Base projection 1.12 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.363 (66 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 62.1%
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Recent form: L10 10/37 (27%) | L5 8/19 (42%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 70/99 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.12
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/53 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.19 | Away Batter Hits: 34/46 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.04 | Day Batter Hits: 70/99 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Andy Pages Under 1.5 (-236) diff 22.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -236

Selected market: Over 34.1% / Under 65.9%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -236 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+175	-236	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.17 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 22.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.04 (AVG 0.270)
Base projection 1.04 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.327 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 14/40 (35%) | L5 5/19 (26%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/116 (76%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.40 | Season Avg 1.04
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.36 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 38/55 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.11 | Away Batter Hits: 50/61 under 1.5 (82%), avg 0.98 | Day Batter Hits: 88/116 under 1.5 (76%), avg 1.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 22.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jake McCarthy Under 1.5 (-254) diff 21.6% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -254

Selected market: Over 32.7% / Under 67.3%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+160	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	-
DK	1.5	+187	-254	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.6% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.305)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xwOBA 0.263 (26 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.3%
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Recent form: L10 16/45 (36%) | L5 12/22 (55%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 71/102 (70%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.09
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.51 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 32/51 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.22 | Away Batter Hits: 39/51 under 1.5 (76%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 71/102 under 1.5 (70%), avg 1.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.6% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 (-257) diff 21.3% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -257

Selected market: Over 32.5% / Under 67.5%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -235 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +200; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+186	-250	-
DK	1.5	+189	-257	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-260	+200	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 1.18 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 21.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.325)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.5%
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Recent form: L10 13/38 (34%) | L5 4/19 (21%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 76/116 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 35/59 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.39 | Away Batter Hits: 41/57 under 1.5 (72%), avg 0.96 | Day Batter Hits: 76/116 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 21.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Alec Burleson Under 1.5 (-213) diff 20.3% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -213

Selected market: Over 36.3% / Under 63.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -208 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+155	-210	-
BetOnline	1.5	+158	-208	Recommended
DK	1.5	+158	-213	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.20 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 20.3% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.08 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.08 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.322 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 63.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 10/35 (29%) | L5 4/16 (25%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 80/116 (69%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.08
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 8/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 46/62 under 1.5 (74%), avg 0.94 | Away Batter Hits: 34/54 under 1.5 (63%), avg 1.24 | Day Batter Hits: 80/116 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 20.3% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Trea Turner Under 1.5 (-240) diff 19.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -240

Selected market: Over 33.8% / Under 66.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -225 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+178	-240	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 1.21 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 19.1% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.03 (AVG 0.251)
Base projection 1.03 | production context adj 1.17x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.252 (82 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.2%
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Recent form: L10 15/43 (35%) | L5 7/22 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 11/20 (55%) | Season 84/115 (73%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.50 | Season Avg 1.03
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/60 under 1.5 (68%), avg 1.15 | Away Batter Hits: 43/55 under 1.5 (78%), avg 0.91 | Day Batter Hits: 84/115 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.03

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 19.1% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Nick Gonzales Under 1.5 (-274) diff 18.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -274

Selected market: Over 31.2% / Under 68.8%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -250 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +220; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+199	-270	-
DK	1.5	+201	-274	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-300	+220	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.22 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 18.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.18 (AVG 0.309)
Base projection 1.18 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xwOBA 0.318 (47 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 68.8%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 10/39 (26%) | L5 6/19 (32%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 10/20 (50%) | Season 67/113 (59%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.00 | Season Avg 1.18
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 6/10 under 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/56 under 1.5 (64%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 31/57 under 1.5 (54%), avg 1.28 | Day Batter Hits: 67/113 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 18.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 (-237) diff 17.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -237

Selected market: Over 34.0% / Under 66.0%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Under 1.5 -222 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +240; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-225	-
BetOnline	1.5	+167	-222	Recommended
DK	1.5	+176	-237	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-350	+240	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 1.24 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 17.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.09 (AVG 0.294)
Base projection 1.09 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.406 (61 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.05x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 66.0%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 16/38 (42%) | L5 7/20 (35%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 12/20 (60%) | Season 71/107 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.60 | Season Avg 1.13
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 5/10 under 1.5; recent avg up +0.47 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 36/49 under 1.5 (74%), avg 1.06 | Away Batter Hits: 35/58 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.19 | Day Batter Hits: 71/107 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 17.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Jordan Walker Under 1.5 (-252) diff 16.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -252

Selected market: Over 32.8% / Under 67.2%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetMGM Under 1.5 -220 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+165	-220	Recommended
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+186	-252	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 1.25 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 16.4% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.11 (AVG 0.283)
Base projection 1.11 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.380 (50 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 67.2%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 11/43 (26%) | L5 8/24 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 80/113 (71%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.10 | Season Avg 1.11
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 44/61 under 1.5 (72%), avg 1.07 | Away Batter Hits: 36/52 under 1.5 (69%), avg 1.15 | Day Batter Hits: 80/113 under 1.5 (71%), avg 1.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 16.4% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 (-225) diff 14.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -225

Selected market: Over 35.1% / Under 64.9%

Own-line consensus: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 3 books | 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -225 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	0.5	-275	+195	-
BetOnline	1.5	+171	-227	-
DK	1.5	+167	-225	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗✗––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (20)

Proj 1.28 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 14.7% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.15 (AVG 0.304)
Base projection 1.15 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.340 (54 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 2/3 OVER | avg line 1.25 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.9%
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Recent form: L10 13/37 (35%) | L5 3/18 (17%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 75/114 (66%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.15
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 41/56 under 1.5 (73%), avg 1.04 | Away Batter Hits: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.26 | Day Batter Hits: 75/114 under 1.5 (66%), avg 1.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 47.6% (4 books) | consensus 67% (4 books)

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 14.7% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Otto Lopez Under 1.5 (-223) diff 6.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 1.5 -223

Selected market: Over 35.3% / Under 64.7%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: DK Under 1.5 -223 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Under 1.5 +230; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+180	-250	-
BetOnline	1.5	+174	-233	-
DK	1.5	+166	-223	SelectedRecommended
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: ✓✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 1.40 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 6.8% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.27 (AVG 0.317)
Base projection 1.27 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xwOBA 0.163 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: YES
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 64.7%
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Recent form: L10 9/42 (21%) | L5 5/21 (24%)
Prop history (batter_hits Under 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 69/114 (60%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.90 | Season Avg 1.27
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 7/10 under 1.5; recent avg down -0.37 vs season
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 34/58 under 1.5 (59%), avg 1.29 | Away Batter Hits: 35/56 under 1.5 (62%), avg 1.25 | Day Batter Hits: 69/114 under 1.5 (60%), avg 1.27

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.8% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter Hits — Luis Arraez Over 1.5 (+172) diff 2.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 1.5 +172

Selected market: Over 34.4% / Under 65.6%

Own-line consensus: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%

Line distribution: 1.5 at 4 books

Recommended shop: BetOnline Over 1.5 +178 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	1.5	+175	-235	-
BetOnline	1.5	+178	-238	RecommendedRaw Best
DK	1.5	+172	-233	Selected
theScore Bet	1.5	-320	+230	-

Signal Breakdown: !✗✗–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (21)

Proj 1.54 vs line 1.5 | DIFF% 2.5% [individual]
Basis: H/G 1.30 (AVG 0.324)
Base projection 1.30 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xwOBA 0.291 (56 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: draftkings
Selected market agrees: NO
Consensus at own lines: 1/3 UNDER | avg line 1.5 | selected line 1.5 | selected market UNDER 65.6%
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Recent form: L10 13/42 (31%) | L5 7/21 (33%)
Prop history (batter_hits Over 1.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 4/10 (40%) | L20 7/20 (35%) | Season 44/110 (40%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 1.30 | Season Avg 1.30
Prop trend: Batter Hits L10: 4/10 over 1.5
Player context: Home Batter Hits: 25/54 over 1.5 (46%), avg 1.41 | Away Batter Hits: 19/56 over 1.5 (34%), avg 1.20 | Day Batter Hits: 44/110 over 1.5 (40%), avg 1.30

⚠ Baby Line: Projected PA (4.4) low relative to line (1.5)

⚠ Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5

⚠ Books Disagree: blended market against 43.5% (4 books) | books against us 33% (4 books) — strongly disagree

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 2.5% vs 50% min using selected line 1.5 — posture note at D

▸ Total — 2 play(s) (C 2)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-124) edge 19.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: DK Over 7 -124 | exact

Displayed bet: Over 7 -124

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7.5 at 8 books | 7 at 2 books

Recommended shop: DK Over 7 -124 | exact

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is LowVig Over 7.5 +107; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-125	-	-
DK	7	-124	-	SelectedRecommended
BetOnline	7.5	+105	-	-
BetRivers	7.5	-103	-	-
BetUS	7.5	+105	-	-
Bovada Direct	7.5	-110	-	-
FanDuel	7.5	-104	-	-
LowVig	7.5	+107	-	Raw BestVerify
MyBookie	7.5	+102	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+105	-	-

Signal Breakdown: –✓!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jimmy Joyce (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Emerson Hancock (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Total — Over 7.0 7.0 (-121) edge 18.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers Over 7 -110 | best price

Displayed bet: Over 7 -121

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A | selected line 7

Line distribution: 7 at 9 books | 7.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: BetRivers Over 7 -110 | best price

▸ Shop Lines

Selected = displayed market | Recommended = resolver-approved shop line | Raw Best = best visible same-side price | Verify = price may be stale/outlier

Raw best price is theScore Bet Over 7.5 +115; verify before using because the recommended shop line may be filtering a stale/outlier price.

Book	Line	Over	Under	Tags
BetMGM	7	-118	-	-
BetOnline	7	-115	-	-
BetRivers	7	-110	-	Recommended
BetUS	7	-120	-	-
Bovada Direct	7	-125	-	-
DK	7	-121	-	Selected
FanDuel	7	-122	-	-
LowVig	7	-113	-	-
MyBookie	7	-115	-	-
theScore Bet	7.5	+115	-	Raw BestVerify

Signal Breakdown: –✓–––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 102)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (1.94)

▸ F5 ML — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked F5 ML — Athletics (+150) edge 8.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: FanDuel +176 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +150

Own-line consensus: 8 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: FanDuel +176 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Raymond Burgos (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Erik Miller xFIP 3.84
J.T. Ginn xFIP 4.21
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Home SP: Erik Miller (LHP)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (8 books) — strongly disagree

▸ YRFI — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Small Stake Lean Signal - Small Stake YRFI — YRFI (+125) edge 4.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Displayed bet: N/A +125

Own-line consensus: 5 book(s) N/A

Signal Breakdown: –––––– ► Lean Signal - Small Stake

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (3)

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0403 after 0.0000 buffer
Connor Prielipp / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

▸ Moneyline — 1 play(s) (C 1)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Moneyline — Athletics (+207) edge 16.7% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: BetRivers +215 | best price

Displayed bet: N/A +207

Own-line consensus: 9 book(s) N/A

Recommended shop: BetRivers +215 | best price

Signal Breakdown: –✓✗✓–– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Raymond Burgos (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +207 with 16.7% edge (EV $+49.68/$100)
Home SP: Erik Miller (LHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.12
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Erik Miller small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 68.0% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 19.7% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -102 within price guard (-160 floor)

⚠ Books Disagree: selected book disagrees | books against us 0% (9 books) — strongly disagree

▸ Batter HR — 249 play(s) (C 249)

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Steven Kwan Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 96.0% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.02 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 96.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0185
Base projection 0.02 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.351 (17 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 14 PA | 6/12 | HR 0 | K% 7.1% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.071
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 14 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/108 (98%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.02
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/53 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 54/55 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 106/108 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.020/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Caratini Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Kreidler Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Royce Lewis Under 0.5 (-750) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trevor Larnach Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alan Roden Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.8% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Davis Schneider Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Myles Straw Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alejandro Kirk Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 (-750) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — A.J. Ewing Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 94.1% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Osleivis Basabe Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Koss Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daniel Susac Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drew Gilbert Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Grant McCray Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Eldridge Under 0.5 (-900) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.91x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronald Acuna Jr. Under 0.5 (-700) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 (-900) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Ornelas Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Lawrence Butler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jacob Wilson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy White Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Bolte Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonah Heim Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 94.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 94.0% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 (-20000) diff 93.6% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -20000

Selected market: Over 4.6% / Under 95.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 95.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -20000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0330
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.289 (24 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 109/109 (100%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.00
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 57/57 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 52/52 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Day Batter HR: 109/109 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Siri Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Denzer Guzman Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wade Meckler Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Moises Ballesteros Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Adam Frazier Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brendan Donovan Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 (-500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Walls Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 10.8% / Under 89.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Richie Palacios Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Canzone Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Emerson Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 11.5% / Under 88.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Victor Mesa Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Angel Genao Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 95 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luisangel Acuna Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randal Grichuk Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Munetaka Murakami Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brenton Doyle Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Edgar Quero Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andruw Monasterio Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Sogard Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carlos Narvaez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colton Cowser Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cameron Cauley Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Holliday Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Encarnacion-Strand Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Coby Mayo Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dylan Beavers Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Leody Taveras Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.5% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.5% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ty France Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Trammell Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jeremy Pena Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Rengifo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddy Fermin Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Enmanuel Valdez Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Flores Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Connor Wong Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masataka Yoshida Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Muncy (2002) Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (7)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gleyber Torres Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach McKinstry Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colt Keith Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Max Clark Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Baez Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andrew Vaughn Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lockridge Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — David Hamilton Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gary Sanchez Under 0.5 (-750) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Lara Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 102 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — James Jarvis Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (9)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Tolbert Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Massey Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Maile Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Loftin Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Isbel Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.3% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 99 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Locklear Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mookie Betts Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tim Tawa Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tommy Edman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan Waldschmidt Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Rojas Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elieser Hernández Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (8)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.2% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 103 fallback
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corey Seager Under 0.5 (-600) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Foscue Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Wells Under 0.5 (-900) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heliot Ramos Under 0.5 (-650) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Jones Under 0.5 (-700) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — George Lombard Jr. Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 93.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.03 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 93.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 100 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.030/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Henry Davis Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Mangum Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Triolo Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ronny Simon Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Torres Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jimmy Crooks Under 0.5 (-800) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathan Church Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Fermin Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 92.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.8% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 96 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Conforto Under 0.5 (-750) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Amaya Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.7% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Carrigg Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Sullivan Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 (-700) diff 92.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.4% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 104 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — J.T. Realmuto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 92.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Justin Crawford Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 92.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.1% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 98 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Masyn Winn Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 92.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 92.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0367
Base projection 0.04 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.318 (35 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .650 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/109 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.04
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/52 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 105/109 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Griffin Conine Under 0.5 (-750) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Heriberto Hernandez Under 0.5 (-800) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Javier Sanoja Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Owen Caissie Under 0.5 (-900) diff 91.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.9% [team fallback]
Basis: team wRC+ 101 fallback
Base projection 0.03 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luke Keaschall Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 91.6% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.04 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 91.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0550
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.76x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.226 (23 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 103/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.040/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Taylor Ward Under 0.5 (-1100) diff 89.4% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1100

Selected market: Over 16.0% / Under 84.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1100 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0603
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.263 (35 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 109/116 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 63/64 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 46/52 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 109/116 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.05 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0531
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.396 (47 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/113 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/56 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 107/113 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.050/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Arraez Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 89.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 89.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0455
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.347 (56 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 33 PA | 9/31 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 6.1% | OPS .656
BVP production adjustment: 1.00x from 33 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/110 (96%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/54 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 105/110 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 88.6% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0642
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 0.89x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.402 (45 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 102/109 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/54 under 0.5 (100%), avg 0.00 | Away Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 102/109 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brett Baty Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 88.5% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0654
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.296 (40 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 88.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 88.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0508
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.16x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.299 (73 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 112/118 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/59 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 58/59 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Day Batter HR: 112/118 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andres Gimenez Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 87.8% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.320 (29 PA, adj 0.96x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/112 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/55 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/112 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nico Hoerner Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 87.2% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.06 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0603
Base projection 0.06 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.430 (33 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 109/116 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.06
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 55/58 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 109/116 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.060/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ernie Clement Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 87.0% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 87.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.83x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.262 (42 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 0 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS .900 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jakob Marsee Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 86.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0531
Base projection 0.05 | production context adj 1.24x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.466 (40 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 107/113 (95%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.05
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/57 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 52/56 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 107/113 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 (-900) diff 86.5% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 86.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0673
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/104 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/49 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 97/104 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jung Hoo Lee Under 0.5 (-3500) diff 86.0% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -3500

Selected market: Over 7.9% / Under 92.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -3500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0748
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.627 (11 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/107 (94%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/47 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 56/60 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 100/107 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Schanuel Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 85.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.07 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 85.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0722
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.364 (37 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 2/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/97 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/51 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 90/97 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.070/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brayan Rocchio Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 84.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0783
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.195 (25 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 16.7% | OPS .533 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 106/115 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 106/115 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Sam Antonacci Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 84.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 84.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 88/96 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/48 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Away Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 88/96 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 (-2800) diff 83.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2800

Selected market: Over 8.6% / Under 91.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 91.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.410 (159 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/57 under 0.5 (98%), avg 0.02 | Away Batter HR: 49/57 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Naylor Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 83.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.08 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 83.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0909
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.386 (52 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 102/110 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/56 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 102/110 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.080/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Xander Bogaerts Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 82.9% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0804
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.231 (37 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 9 PA | 3/9 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000
BVP production adjustment: 1.03x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 103/112 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/112 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryson Stott Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 82.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0714
Base projection 0.07 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.421 (49 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 104/112 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.07
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/112 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Karros Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.4% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0826
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.156 (23 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/109 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/53 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 100/109 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Tovar Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0833
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.480 (31 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 9 PA | 1/8 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .250
BVP production adjustment: 0.95x from 9 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/108 (93%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.06 | Day Batter HR: 100/108 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Otto Lopez Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 82.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0789
Base projection 0.08 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.221 (62 PA, adj 0.93x); usage-weighted from raw 0.91x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 105/114 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.08
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/58 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 105/114 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bo Bichette Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 82.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 82.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0940
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.477 (74 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Jared Jones: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 108/117 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/58 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 108/117 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 0.5 (-600) diff 81.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0862
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.361 (46 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/4 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 20.0% | OPS 1.400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 107/116 (92%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 107/116 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Caleb Durbin Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 81.2% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.09 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 81.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1009
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.239 (34 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.92x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/109 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/109 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.090/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.0899
Base projection 0.09 | production context adj 1.08x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.520 (105 PA, adj 1.05x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 81/89 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.09
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 41/46 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 81/89 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kevin McGonigle Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 80.4% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1062
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.279 (69 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.2% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1000
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (78 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 29 PA | 4/25 | HR 2 | K% 31.0% | BB% 13.8% | OPS .716
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 29 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 99/110 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/54 under 0.5 (96%), avg 0.04 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/110 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — William Contreras Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 80.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 80.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1019
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.353 (28 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/108 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/48 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Day Batter HR: 97/108 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Bell Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 79.3% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.10 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 79.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.78x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.382 (47 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/54 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 49/59 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.100/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Travis Bazzana Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1059
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.263 (14 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.93x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 3 PA | 2/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 2.500 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 77/85 (91%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/44 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 36/41 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 77/85 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Austin Riley Under 0.5 (-800) diff 78.6% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1207
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.396 (154 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brooks Lee Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.4% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.75x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.171 (42 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/112 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/54 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 97/112 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jared Young Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/118 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 105/118 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cole Young Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1186
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.375 (49 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS 1.167 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 105/118 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/61 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 105/118 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alex Bregman Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 78.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 78.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1043
Base projection 0.10 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.404 (44 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 104/115 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.10
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/59 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 104/115 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Carson Benge Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 77.6% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.11 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 77.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1161
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.498 (51 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 100/112 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/57 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.05 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 100/112 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.110/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Agustín Ramírez Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1163
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 77/86 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 77/86 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Ramirez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 76.9% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1163
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 0.99x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.330 (27 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 11 PA | 2/10 | HR 0 | K% 9.1% | BB% 9.1% | OPS .473
BVP production adjustment: 0.98x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 77/86 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/43 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 37/43 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 77/86 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Marcus Semien Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 76.4% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1414
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.84x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.284 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.194 (75 PA, adj 0.90x)
Pitcher assessment: Jared Jones contact suppression 66, HR vulnerability 34 (adj 0.97x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 85/99 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 85/99 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 (-800) diff 76.3% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 18.4% / Under 81.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 76.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1273
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.389 (54 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/110 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/55 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 96/110 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 (-800) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1081
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.640 (36 PA, adj 1.07x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/111 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 100/111 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ezequiel Duran Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 75.8% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1204
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.303 (34 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 96/108 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 96/108 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cedric Mullins Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1300
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.195 (19 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/100 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/50 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 45/50 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 87/100 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 75.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1200
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.341 (27 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 89/100 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 39/46 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 89/100 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — TJ Rumfield Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 75.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.12 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1140
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.287 (39 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 101/114 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/58 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 51/56 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 101/114 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.120/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trent Grisham Under 0.5 (-500) diff 75.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 75.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1237
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.01x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.341 (30 PA, adj 0.97x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/97 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 36/43 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Day Batter HR: 86/97 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ivan Herrera Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 74.8% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1121
Base projection 0.11 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.398 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 104/116 (90%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.11
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 51/55 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 104/116 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Busch Under 0.5 (-750) diff 74.3% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.3% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1197
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.452 (35 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/117 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/59 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 53/58 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 103/117 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dominic Smith Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Smith Under 0.5 (-4000) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -4000

Selected market: Over 7.3% / Under 92.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 92.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -4000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (12)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Cam Smith Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 74.1% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1293
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 103/116 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/59 under 0.5 (95%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 103/116 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ceddanne Rafaela Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 74.0% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 74.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1339
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.364 (53 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 98/112 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/59 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 98/112 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.9% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1261
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.370 (39 PA, adj 0.98x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 11 PA | 2/9 | HR 1 | K% 9.1% | BB% 18.2% | OPS .919
BVP production adjustment: 1.01x from 11 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 105/119 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/59 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 53/60 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 105/119 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Riley Greene Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.6% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1391
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.95x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.347 (74 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 100/115 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 100/115 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gavin Sheets Under 0.5 (-900) diff 73.2% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1284
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.283 (62 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.94x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 97/109 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/53 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/109 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Liam Hicks Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 73.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 14.1% / Under 85.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.13 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1429
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.192 (29 PA, adj 0.95x); usage-weighted from raw 0.90x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 91/105 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 91/105 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.130/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 73.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 73.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/54 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 (-450) diff 72.5% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (19)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.485 (66 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 8 PA | 2/8 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .625
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/53 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake McCarthy Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1275
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.307 (26 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 91/102 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/51 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/51 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.10 | Day Batter HR: 91/102 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Bohm Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 72.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1150
Base projection 0.12 | production context adj 1.21x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.346 (66 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 8 | proj PA 4.0
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 101/113 (89%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.12
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 101/113 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 8 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jonathan Aranda Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 72.1% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 16.7% / Under 83.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1327
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.678 (29 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/56 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jose Altuve Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 72.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 72.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1398
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/93 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/47 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/46 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 81/93 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Elias Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yandy Diaz Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 15.3% / Under 84.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 71.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 13.2% / Under 86.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1351
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.616 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 52/55 under 0.5 (94%), avg 0.05 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jarren Duran Under 0.5 (-900) diff 71.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.356 (60 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs J.T. Ginn: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/55 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Corbin Carroll Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.4% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1404
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.386 (154 PA, adj 0.99x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 7 PA | 3/6 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 14.3% | OPS 1.238 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/114 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 52/57 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.11 | Day Batter HR: 99/114 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brice Turang Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.455 (42 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.02x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 54/60 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 43/51 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willi Castro Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 71.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.14 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1313
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.10x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.362 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/99 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.27 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/49 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 44/50 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 87/99 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.140/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kody Clemens Under 0.5 (-800) diff 71.0% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 71.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1845
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.79x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.215 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.85x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.442 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 10% usage
Pitcher assessment: Jacob Misiorowski contact suppression 100, HR vulnerability 0 (adj 0.92x)
BVP vs Jacob Misiorowski: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/103 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 40/47 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 46/56 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 86/103 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1316
Base projection 0.13 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.419 (54 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 28 PA | 10/24 | HR 1 | K% 17.9% | BB% 10.7% | OPS 1.131
BVP production adjustment: 1.05x from 28 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 20/20 (100%) | Season 100/114 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.13
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 100/114 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.13

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Salvador Perez Under 0.5 (-550) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1468
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.314 (73 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 54 PA | 12/52 | HR 2 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .606
BVP production adjustment: 0.99x from 54 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 49/56 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 70.7% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1624
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.442 (127 PA, adj 1.01x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/117 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 99/117 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Gunnar Henderson Under 0.5 (-650) diff 70.2% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 0.96x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.273 (80 PA, adj 0.94x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jo Adell Under 0.5 (-800) diff 70.1% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 70.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1379
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.330 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.706 (30 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Davis Martin contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Davis Martin: 6 PA | 2/6 | HR 0 | K% 16.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 102/116 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 55/60 under 0.5 (92%), avg 0.08 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 102/116 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willy Adames Under 0.5 (-900) diff 69.3% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.90x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.391 (18 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/53 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Away Batter HR: 46/59 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 69.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.5% / Under 84.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.15 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 69.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1504
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.03x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.342 (40 PA, adj 0.97x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 3 PA | 2/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 100/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.150/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Merrill Under 0.5 (-700) diff 68.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.380 (69 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 53/57 under 0.5 (93%), avg 0.07 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — JJ Wetherholt Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 68.0% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 68.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1441
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.359 (50 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 97/111 (87%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/57 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.12 | Away Batter HR: 46/54 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 97/111 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 67.8% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1724
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 0.93x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.306 (43 PA, adj 0.96x); usage-weighted from raw 0.95x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 97/116 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 51/59 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 97/116 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jazz Chisholm Jr. Under 0.5 (-550) diff 67.0% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.16 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 67.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1574
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.418 (58 PA, adj 1.00x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 92/108 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 92/108 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.160/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Michael Harris II Under 0.5 (-550) diff 66.1% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 66.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1802
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.532 (81 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/111 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/54 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/111 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Tyler Soderstrom Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.9% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.8% / Under 85.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1810
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.280 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.95x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.468 (55 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Erik Miller contact suppression 68, HR vulnerability 32 (adj 0.97x)
BVP vs Erik Miller: 4 PA | 0/4 | HR 0 | K% 25.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/105 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/48 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 50/57 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14 | Day Batter HR: 88/105 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1416
Base projection 0.14 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.432 (63 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 99/113 (88%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.14
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 52/60 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/53 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 99/113 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.14

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Julio Rodriguez Under 0.5 (-700) diff 65.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 19.9% / Under 80.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1682
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.290 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.96x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.649 (44 PA, adj 1.10x)
Pitcher assessment: Ian Seymour contact suppression 62, HR vulnerability 38 (adj 0.98x)
BVP vs Ian Seymour: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 90/107 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/56 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/51 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 90/107 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nolan Arenado Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 65.1% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.17 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 65.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1532
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.481 (119 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 8 PA | 4/7 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 12.5% | OPS 1.196
BVP production adjustment: 1.07x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/111 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 50/56 under 0.5 (89%), avg 0.12 | Day Batter HR: 95/111 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.170/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Alec Burleson Under 0.5 (-550) diff 64.9% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1552
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.425 (79 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
BVP vs Michael Lorenzen: 5 PA | 4/5 | HR 2 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 2.800 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 100/116 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 56/62 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 100/116 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Wilyer Abreu Under 0.5 (-475) diff 64.6% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (13)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1770
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.465 (79 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.03x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 96/113 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5; recent avg up +0.32 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/58 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 45/55 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 96/113 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kazuma Okamoto Under 0.5 (-800) diff 64.5% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.85x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.310 (45 PA, adj 0.95x)
Pitcher assessment: Jesús Luzardo contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
BVP vs Jesús Luzardo: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 92/115 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 45/58 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 92/115 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Trea Turner Under 0.5 (-900) diff 64.4% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 64.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1478
Base projection 0.15 | production context adj 1.20x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.313 (82 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 100.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 99/115 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.15
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/60 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20 | Away Batter HR: 50/55 under 0.5 (91%), avg 0.09 | Day Batter HR: 99/115 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.15

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Starling Marte Under 0.5 (-1600) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1600

Selected market: Over 11.7% / Under 88.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 88.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.487 (160 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ketel Marte Under 0.5 (-650) diff 63.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.18 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.327 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.487 (160 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Justin Wrobleski contact suppression 44, HR vulnerability 56 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Justin Wrobleski: 3 PA | 0/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.180/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Burger Under 0.5 (-550) diff 63.0% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 63.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1696
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.549 (24 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 21% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cade Povich contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/112 (84%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/54 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Away Batter HR: 47/58 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/112 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Andy Pages Under 0.5 (-900) diff 62.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1638
Base projection 0.16 | production context adj 1.13x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.435 (34 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 13 PA | 6/13 | HR 1 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.231
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 13 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 99/116 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.16
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 53/61 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 99/116 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.16

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jake Bauers Under 0.5 (-900) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 16.2% / Under 83.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1923
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.327 (43 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/104 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/54 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 40/50 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 84/104 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Zach Neto Under 0.5 (-1000) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1000

Selected market: Over 15.0% / Under 85.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1754
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.606 (37 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/55 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Away Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ian Happ Under 0.5 (-750) diff 62.7% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1667
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.12x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.556 (27 PA, adj 1.06x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 1 PA | 0/1 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 95/114 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/57 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 95/114 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1928
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.311 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.376 (20 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.98x at 17% usage
Pitcher assessment: Connor Prielipp contact suppression 52, HR vulnerability 48 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Connor Prielipp: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 1 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 69/83 (83%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 35/44 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.25 | Away Batter HR: 34/39 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.13 | Day Batter HR: 69/83 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Rafael Devers Under 0.5 (-700) diff 62.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 62.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2051
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.92x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.275 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.94x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Split-Finger xSLG 0.531 (24 PA, adj 1.02x); usage-weighted from raw 1.06x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Troy Melton contact suppression 70, HR vulnerability 30 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 95/117 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/55 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 52/62 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 95/117 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Christian Walker Under 0.5 (-750) diff 61.4% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.8% / Under 82.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (10)

Proj 0.19 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 61.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1930
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 93/114 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/58 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 44/56 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Day Batter HR: 93/114 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.190/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jac Caglianone Under 0.5 (-800) diff 60.1% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -800

Selected market: Over 16.4% / Under 83.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 83.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -800 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 60.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1835
Base projection 0.18 | production context adj 1.09x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.329 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.747 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Matthew Boyd contact suppression 43, HR vulnerability 57 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Matthew Boyd: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 93/109 (85%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/56 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 46/53 under 0.5 (87%), avg 0.15 | Day Batter HR: 93/109 under 0.5 (85%), avg 0.18

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Brandon Lowe Under 0.5 (-750) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Josh Lowe Under 0.5 (-1200) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1200

Selected market: Over 14.3% / Under 85.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 85.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1200 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Nathaniel Lowe Under 0.5 (-900) diff 59.8% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.20 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 59.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 0.88x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.331 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.253 (40 PA, adj 0.93x)
Pitcher assessment: Sean Manaea contact suppression 42, HR vulnerability 58 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Sean Manaea: 8 PA | 0/8 | HR 0 | K% 37.5% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000
BVP production adjustment: 0.92x from 8 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 6 | proj PA 4.2
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/110 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/53 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 88/110 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.200/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 (-650) diff 58.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2128
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.598 (106 PA, adj 1.09x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 75/94 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 39/50 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 36/44 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.18 | Day Batter HR: 75/94 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Mike Trout Under 0.5 (-750) diff 58.5% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -750

Selected market: Over 17.1% / Under 82.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -750 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1939
Base projection 0.19 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.324 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.01x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Cutter xSLG 0.635 (40 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 14% usage
Pitcher assessment: Ryan Gusto contact suppression 46, HR vulnerability 54 (adj 1.01x)
BVP vs Ryan Gusto: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .400 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 80/98 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.19
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/48 under 0.5 (90%), avg 0.10 | Away Batter HR: 37/50 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 80/98 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.19

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Alonso Under 0.5 (-500) diff 58.1% Bet on DK

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers | Start: 2:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––✓ ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1966
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.07x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.325 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.02x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.499 (70 PA, adj 1.04x)
Pitcher assessment: Kumar Rocker contact suppression 45, HR vulnerability 55 (adj 1.01x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 94/117 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 46/55 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Day Batter HR: 94/117 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Manny Machado Under 0.5 (-550) diff 58.0% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 58.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2000
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.346 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.05x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.314 (51 PA, adj 0.98x); usage-weighted from raw 0.96x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Cristian Javier contact suppression 34, HR vulnerability 66 (adj 1.03x)
BVP vs Cristian Javier: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 1 | K% 40.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 94/115 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 48/57 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 46/58 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 94/115 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Stowers Under 0.5 (-550) diff 57.9% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins | Start: 1:40 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.21 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 57.9% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.1720
Base projection 0.17 | production context adj 1.22x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.399 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.438 (55 PA, adj 1.01x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 24% usage
Pitcher assessment: Grayson Rodriguez contact suppression 8, HR vulnerability 92 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 80/93 (86%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 38/45 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.18 | Away Batter HR: 42/48 under 0.5 (88%), avg 0.17 | Day Batter HR: 80/93 under 0.5 (86%), avg 0.17

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.210/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 (-700) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -700

Selected market: Over 17.9% / Under 82.1%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 82.1%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -700 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/115 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/115 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ildemaro Vargas Under 0.5 (-2500) diff 55.6% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2500

Selected market: Over 9.4% / Under 90.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 90.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.6% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2087
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.616 (39 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 5 PA | 1/5 | HR 0 | K% 60.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .600 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 8/10 (80%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 93/115 (81%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 8/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.23 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 93/115 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Willson Contreras Under 0.5 (-650) diff 55.1% Bet on DK

Game: Athletics @ Boston Red Sox | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -650

Selected market: Over 18.8% / Under 81.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 81.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -650 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (14)

Proj 0.22 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 55.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2170
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.04x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.308 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.581 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.08x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: J.T. Ginn contact suppression 54, HR vulnerability 46 (adj 0.99x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 84/106 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/55 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22 | Away Batter HR: 40/51 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.22 | Day Batter HR: 84/106 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.220/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Pete Crow-Armstrong Under 0.5 (-475) diff 54.0% Bet on DK

Game: Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 54.0% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2203
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.05x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.385 (44 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Randy Dobnak contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Randy Dobnak: 2 PA | 1/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 95/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 48/59 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.20 | Day Batter HR: 95/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Colson Montgomery Under 0.5 (-600) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/110 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/110 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 (-2000) diff 53.5% Bet on DK

Game: Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Start: 2:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -2000

Selected market: Over 10.4% / Under 89.5%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 89.5%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -2000 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!!✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2273
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.02x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.309 (neutral contact quality, adj 0.99x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.505 (43 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.04x at 26% usage
Pitcher assessment: Joey Cantillo contact suppression 53, HR vulnerability 47 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Joey Cantillo: 2 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 50.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 5 | proj PA 4.3
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 18/20 (90%) | Season 86/110 (78%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.23
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/53 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.17 | Away Batter HR: 42/57 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/110 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.23

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Matchup: [!] Weather: +8% run env ✗ Under

⚠ Game Script: Elevated run environment (1.08x) — headwind for Under | Home pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 (-1400) diff 53.1% Bet on DK

Game: Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants | Start: 4:05 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -1400

Selected market: Over 13.3% / Under 86.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 86.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -1400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.23 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 53.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2407
Base projection 0.24 | production context adj 0.97x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.303 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.98x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.417 (51 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.00x at 25% usage
Pitcher assessment: Logan Webb contact suppression 56, HR vulnerability 44 (adj 0.99x)
BVP vs Logan Webb: 6 PA | 0/6 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .000 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 6/10 (60%) | L20 14/20 (70%) | Season 85/108 (79%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 6/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 43/52 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Away Batter HR: 42/56 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29 | Day Batter HR: 85/108 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.230/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Jordan Walker Under 0.5 (-600) diff 52.1% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -600

Selected market: Over 19.7% / Under 80.3%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 80.3%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -600 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.24 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 52.1% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2035
Base projection 0.20 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.366 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.08x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.556 (50 PA, adj 1.05x); usage-weighted from raw 1.07x at 20% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael Lorenzen contact suppression 24, HR vulnerability 76 (adj 1.05x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 90/113 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 51/61 under 0.5 (84%), avg 0.16 | Away Batter HR: 39/52 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.25 | Day Batter HR: 90/113 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.20

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.240/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Luis Garcia Jr. Under 0.5 (-500) diff 49.5% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 23.1% / Under 76.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (18)

Proj 0.25 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 49.5% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2222
Base projection 0.22 | production context adj 1.14x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.467 (61 PA, adj 1.03x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 10 PA | 4/10 | HR 1 | K% 20.0% | BB% 0.0% | OPS 1.300
BVP production adjustment: 1.06x from 10 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 7 | proj PA 4.1
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 88/108 (82%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.22
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 46/57 under 0.5 (81%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 42/51 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 88/108 under 0.5 (82%), avg 0.22

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 7 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.250/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Matt Olson Under 0.5 (-390) diff 46.8% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -390

Selected market: Over 26.4% / Under 73.6%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.6%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -390 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2821
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.94x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.268 (suppressing contact quality, adj 0.93x)
Pitch mix: batter vs 4-Seam Fastball xSLG 0.538 (157 PA, adj 1.06x)
Pitcher assessment: Cam Schlittler contact suppression 74, HR vulnerability 26 (adj 0.96x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 5/10 (50%) | L20 13/20 (65%) | Season 87/117 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.50 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 5/10 under 0.5
Player context: Home Batter HR: 47/59 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.24 | Away Batter HR: 40/58 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 87/117 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Bryce Harper Under 0.5 (-550) diff 46.2% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -550

Selected market: Over 20.8% / Under 79.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 79.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -550 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.27 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 46.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2119
Base projection 0.21 | production context adj 1.27x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.637 (77 PA, adj 1.04x); usage-weighted from raw 1.10x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
BVP vs Shane Bieber: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 66.7% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 3 | proj PA 4.5
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 15/20 (75%) | Season 94/118 (80%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 49/61 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21 | Away Batter HR: 45/57 under 0.5 (79%), avg 0.21 | Day Batter HR: 94/118 under 0.5 (80%), avg 0.21

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.270/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 (-475) diff 44.8% Bet on DK

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Start: 4:10 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -475

Selected market: Over 23.2% / Under 76.8%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 76.8%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -475 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (17)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.8% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2342
Base projection 0.23 | production context adj 1.18x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.338 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Changeup xSLG 0.599 (61 PA, adj 1.08x); usage-weighted from raw 1.09x at 27% usage
Pitcher assessment: Eduardo Rodriguez contact suppression 38, HR vulnerability 62 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 32 PA | 8/26 | HR 2 | K% 25.0% | BB% 18.8% | OPS 1.091
BVP production adjustment: 1.04x from 32 PA vs SP
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 16/20 (80%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 34/49 under 0.5 (69%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 48/58 under 0.5 (83%), avg 0.19 | Day Batter HR: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Junior Caminero Under 0.5 (-400) diff 44.2% Bet on DK

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners | Start: 4:11 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 26.3% / Under 73.7%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 73.7%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!––! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.28 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 44.2% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2845
Base projection 0.28 | production context adj 0.98x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.313 (neutral contact quality, adj 1.00x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Sweeper xSLG 0.351 (51 PA, adj 0.99x); usage-weighted from raw 0.97x at 16% usage
Pitcher assessment: Emerson Hancock contact suppression 51, HR vulnerability 49 (adj 1.00x)
BVP vs Emerson Hancock: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: confirmed but player not in starting lineup
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 3/5 (60%) | L10 7/10 (70%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 87/116 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.28
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 7/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 44/59 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.31 | Away Batter HR: 43/57 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.26 | Day Batter HR: 87/116 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.28

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.07x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.280/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Eddy Alvarez Under 0.5 (-900) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -900

Selected market: Over 15.6% / Under 84.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 84.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -900 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3017
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 (-450) diff 39.7% Bet on DK

Game: Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres | Start: 8:20 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -450

Selected market: Over 24.6% / Under 75.4%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 75.4%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -450 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–!– ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (11)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3017
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 9 | proj PA 3.9
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 86/116 (74%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.30
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/59 under 0.5 (71%), avg 0.32 | Away Batter HR: 44/57 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Day Batter HR: 86/116 under 0.5 (74%), avg 0.30

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Role/Injury: Batting 9 — lower in order, fewer PA

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Ben Rice Under 0.5 (-400) diff 39.4% Bet on DK

Game: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees | Start: 1:35 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -400

Selected market: Over 25.8% / Under 74.2%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 74.2%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -400 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.30 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 39.4% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2857
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.06x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.333 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.03x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.444 (70 PA, adj 1.02x)
Pitcher assessment: Grant Holmes contact suppression 41, HR vulnerability 59 (adj 1.02x)
BVP vs Grant Holmes: 3 PA | 0/2 | HR 0 | K% 0.0% | BB% 33.3% | OPS .333 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 2 | proj PA 4.6
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 4/5 (80%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 81/112 (72%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 33/50 under 0.5 (66%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 48/62 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 81/112 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.05x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.300/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Hunter Goodman Under 0.5 (-500) diff 31.7% Bet on DK

Game: Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals | Start: 2:15 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -500

Selected market: Over 22.0% / Under 78.0%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 78.0%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -500 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (16)

Proj 0.34 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 31.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.3084
Base projection 0.31 | production context adj 1.11x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.360 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.07x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Curveball xSLG 0.390 (38 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 0.99x at 12% usage
Pitcher assessment: Michael McGreevy contact suppression 28, HR vulnerability 72 (adj 1.04x)
BVP vs Michael McGreevy: 3 PA | 1/3 | HR 0 | K% 33.3% | BB% 0.0% | OPS .667 | thin sample
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 4 | proj PA 4.4
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 9/10 (90%) | L20 17/20 (85%) | Season 82/107 (77%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.31
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 9/10 under 0.5; strong exact-market hit rate
Player context: Home Batter HR: 41/53 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.28 | Away Batter HR: 41/54 under 0.5 (76%), avg 0.33 | Day Batter HR: 82/107 under 0.5 (77%), avg 0.31

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Away pen fatigued (1.05x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.340/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

C Lean Signal - Derisked ↘ Lean Signal - Derisked Batter HR — Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 (-300) diff 27.7% Bet on DK

Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies | Start: 1:36 PM

Best Book / Line: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Displayed bet: Under 0.5 -300

Selected market: Over 30.1% / Under 69.9%

Own-line consensus: N/A | avg line 0.5 | selected line 0.5 | selected market UNDER 69.9%

Line distribution: 0.5 at 1 book

Recommended shop: theScore Bet Under 0.5 -300 | exact

Signal Breakdown: –✗!–✓! ► Lean Signal - Derisked

▼ Signal Drivers & Flags (15)

Proj 0.36 vs line 0.5 | DIFF% 27.7% [individual]
Basis: HR/G 0.2946
Base projection 0.29 | production context adj 1.23x
Opp SP xwOBA 0.404 (boosting contact quality, adj 1.13x)
Pitch mix: batter vs Slider xSLG 0.426 (81 PA, adj 1.00x); usage-weighted from raw 1.01x at 11% usage
Pitcher assessment: Shane Bieber contact suppression 6, HR vulnerability 94 (adj 1.08x)
Selected line source: espnbet (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Selected market agrees: YES
Lineup: batting 1 | proj PA 4.7
Prop history (batter_home_runs Under 0.5): L5 5/5 (100%) | L10 10/10 (100%) | L20 19/20 (95%) | Season 84/112 (75%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.00 | Season Avg 0.29
Prop trend: Batter HR L10: 10/10 under 0.5; recent avg down -0.29 vs season
Player context: Home Batter HR: 42/58 under 0.5 (72%), avg 0.34 | Away Batter HR: 42/54 under 0.5 (78%), avg 0.24 | Day Batter HR: 84/112 under 0.5 (75%), avg 0.29

⚠ Weak Model Edge: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold

⚠ Game Script: Neutral run environment (1.00x) | Home pen fatigued (1.06x) | Away pen fatigued (1.08x)

⚠ ⚠ Model edge fail: HR proj 0.360/G <= 0.5 threshold — posture note at D

GAME BETS — DETAIL

6 bet(s) above 15% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
C	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-124	52.9%	72.1%	+19.2%	$+30.32	9	Bet on DK
A	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	Run Line	Kansas City Royals +1.5	DK	-112	50.4%	68.8%	+18.4%	$+30.28	9	Bet on DK
C	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	Total	Over 7.0	DK	-121	52.3%	70.3%	+18.1%	$+28.47	9	Bet on DK
B	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	Total	Over 8.0	DK	-118	51.7%	69.1%	+17.3%	$+27.59	9	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	Moneyline	Athletics	DK	+207	32.1%	48.8%	+16.7%	$+49.68	9	Bet on DK
B	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	Total	Over 8.5	DK	-107	49.5%	65.1%	+15.6%	$+25.86	9	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (6 play(s))

C Over 7.0 — Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (Total) +19.2%

[INJ] Michael Grove (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[IL] Cole Sulser (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Brady Jones (Tampa Bay Rays) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jimmy Joyce (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Cooper Criswell (Seattle Mariners) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 8.7 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Emerson Hancock (RHP) | opp wRC+ 114 vs RHP (tough)
Away SP: Ian Seymour (LHP) | opp wRC+ 105 vs LHP (neutral)
T-Mobile Park (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Seattle Mariners pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 103 blended 35% (team 95)
Tampa Bay Rays pre-lineup top-9 proxy wRC+ 109 blended 35% (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.7
Full game weights: starter 55%, bullpen 45%, offense factor 1.01
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Stats within normal range

A Kansas City Royals +1.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (Run Line) +18.4%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Model run margin: -0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line
+1.5 gate PASS — EV $+30.28/$100
✓ Cover prob 68.8% ≥ 60%
✓ Edge 18.4% ≥ 5%
✓ Kansas City Royals home RL 71% (7 bets)
✓ L5 RL 5/5
✓ Odds -112 within price guard (-160 floor)
No ML edge this game — +1.5 standalone
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL, run factor 0.98)
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 99)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 104 (team 104)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 61%, bullpen 39%, offense factor 1.04
Full game environment: park 0.99, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Weather: Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Randy Dobnak small sample (31 IP) — stats 38% actual / 62% league avg (regression applied)

C Over 7.0 — Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (Total) +18.1%

[IL] Joe Ryan (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[INJ] Jack Anderson (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Garrett Acton (Minnesota Twins) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Eli Jones (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[DTD] Charlee Soto (Minnesota Twins) -- Injured 7-Day: Injured 7-Day
[INJ] Garrett Stallings (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Drew Rom (Milwaukee Brewers) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
Model total: 8.6 runs vs line 7.0
Home SP: Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Connor Prielipp (LHP) | opp wRC+ 101 vs LHP (neutral)
American Family Field (NEUTRAL, run factor 1.03)
Milwaukee Brewers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 112 (team 102)
Minnesota Twins confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 101)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 8.6
Full game weights: starter 62%, bullpen 38%, offense factor 1.06
Full game environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.01
Jacob Misiorowski elite xFIP (1.94)

B Over 8.0 — Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Total) +17.3%

[OUT] Zach Eflin (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Ryan Helsley (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luis Sánchez (Baltimore Orioles) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[INJ] Kolton Curtis (Texas Rangers) -- Injured - Full Season: Injured - Full Season
[OUT] Jason Alvarez (Texas Rangers) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
Model total: 9.5 runs vs line 8.0
Home SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP) | opp wRC+ 103 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Cade Povich (LHP) | opp wRC+ 120 vs LHP (tough)
Globe Life Field (HITTER, run factor 1.07)
Texas Rangers confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 107 (team 100)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.5
Full game weights: starter 56%, bullpen 44%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 0.99
Cade Povich small sample (25 IP) — stats 31% actual / 69% league avg (regression applied)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (Moneyline) +16.7%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Raymond Burgos (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Underdog ML value — Athletics at +207 with 16.7% edge (EV $+49.68/$100)
Home SP: Erik Miller (LHP) | opp wRC+ 113 vs LHP (tough)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP) | opp wRC+ 104 vs RHP (neutral)
Fenway Park (HITTER, run factor 1.06)
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 109 (team 101)
Athletics confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 114 (team 99)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.9
Full game weights: starter 53%, bullpen 47%, offense factor 1.12
Full game environment: park 1.04, weather 1.01, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Erik Miller small sample (35 IP) — stats 43% actual / 57% league avg (regression applied)
+1.5 gate FAIL (Model run margin: +0.1 runs (home) vs ±1.5 line): ✓ Cover prob 68.0% ≥ 60% | ✓ Edge 19.7% ≥ 5% | - Role RL: 4 bets (below 5 sample gate — skipped) | ✗ L5 RL 2/5 < 3/5 gate | ✓ Odds -102 within price guard (-160 floor)

B Over 8.5 — Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox (Total) +15.6%

[INJ] Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Model total: 9.6 runs vs line 8.5
Home SP: Davis Martin (RHP) | opp wRC+ 97 vs RHP (neutral)
Away SP: Joey Cantillo (LHP) | opp wRC+ 116 vs LHP (tough)
Guaranteed Rate Field (PITCHER, run factor 0.95)
Chicago White Sox confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 106 (team 100)
Cleveland Guardians confirmed lineup top-9 wRC+ 101 (team 95)
Full game run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 1.00 -> 9.6
Full game weights: starter 57%, bullpen 43%, offense factor 1.03
Full game environment: park 0.97, weather 1.08, bullpen fatigue 1.02
Weather: Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP
Stats within normal range

F5 BETS — DETAIL

3 bet(s) above 8% edge threshold

Grade	Game	Time (ET)	Type	Side	Source	Odds	Implied	Model	Edge	EV/$100	Books
B	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (F5)	8:20 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-132	53.5%	64.5%	+11.1%	$+13.40	6	Bet on DK
B	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (F5)	2:10 PM	F5 Total	Under 5.5	FanDuel	-120	51.2%	61.3%	+10.1%	$+12.45	6	Bet on DK
C	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5)	1:35 PM	F5 ML	Athletics	DK	+150	37.7%	46.3%	+8.6%	$+15.83	8	Bet on DK

▼ Signal Drivers (3 play(s))

B Under 5.5 — Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres (F5) (F5 Total) +11.1%

[INJ] Miguel Ullola (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[INJ] Logan VanWey (Houston Astros) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Nick Pivetta (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Manuel Castro (San Diego Padres) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Hunter Stratton (San Diego Padres) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
F5 model: 4.6 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Petco Park (PITCHER)
Home SP TBD
Cristian Javier xFIP 4.70
San Diego Padres pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 100 blended 50% (team 96)
Houston Astros pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 116 blended 50% (team 103)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.6
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.04
F5 environment: park 0.97, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Away SP: Cristian Javier (RHP)

B Under 5.5 — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (F5) (F5 Total) +10.1%

[INJ] Tyler Ferguson (Chicago Cubs) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Riley Martin (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Dominick Reid (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[IL] Daniel Palencia (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 15-Day: Injured 15-Day
[OUT] Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Luke Little (Kansas City Royals) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Andy Sanchez (Kansas City Royals) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[WEATHER] Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
F5 model: 4.8 runs vs line 5.5
F5 total source: FanDuel (DK unavailable)
Selected line source: fanduel (fallback; draftkings line unavailable)
Kauffman Stadium (NEUTRAL)
Randy Dobnak xFIP 4.39
Matthew Boyd xFIP 4.07
Kansas City Royals confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 104 (team 99)
Chicago Cubs confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 109 (team 104)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.07
F5 environment: park 0.99, weather 1.04, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP
Home SP: Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Away SP: Matthew Boyd (LHP)

C Athletics — Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (F5) (F5 ML) +8.6%

[OUT] Mark Leiter Jr. (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[OUT] Edgar Sanchez (Athletics) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Raymond Burgos (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[OUT] Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox) -- Injured 60-Day: Injured 60-Day
[INJ] Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox) -- Reassigned to Minors: Reassigned to Minors
[WEATHER] Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Fenway Park (HITTER)
Erik Miller xFIP 3.84
J.T. Ginn xFIP 4.21
Boston Red Sox confirmed lineup top-4 wRC+ 116 (team 101)
Athletics pre-lineup top-4 proxy wRC+ 117 blended 50% (team 99)
F5 run env: baseline 9.0 x innings 0.50 -> 4.8
F5 weights: starter 90%, bullpen 10%, offense factor 1.12
F5 environment: park 1.02, weather 1.00, bullpen fatigue 1.00
Weather: Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect
Home SP: Erik Miller (LHP)
Away SP: J.T. Ginn (RHP)

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

One side or NO BET per game · price is applied after the 2026 projection · signal layers explain the decision and never change probability, edge, or grade

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

1:35 PM · decision fi-518b81b35aa95d6b

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.2%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +118

Raw Edge

+3.3%

Effective Edge

+2.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.3% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.8%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -120

Raw Edge

-3.8%

Effective Edge

-4.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: J.T. Ginn · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Erik Miller · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.492
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
J.T. Ginn / Erik Miller announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.492

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJ.T. Ginn / Erik Miller announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+105	-135	45.9%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+100	-132	46.8%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+118	-150	43.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

1:35 PM · decision fi-7cfe4a380f239fa6

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.2%

Fair Odds

-105

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetRivers -103

Raw Edge

+0.5%

Effective Edge

+0.5%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.5% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.8%

Fair Odds

+105

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars -105

Raw Edge

-2.4%

Effective Edge

-2.4%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.4% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grant Holmes · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Cam Schlittler · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.512
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grant Holmes / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.512

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrant Holmes / Cam Schlittler announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-125	-106	51.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-103	-130	47.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-125	-105	52.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

1:35 PM · decision fi-74844519d1c1d20c

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.8%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -130

Raw Edge

-4.7%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.2%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +106

Raw Edge

-0.4%

Effective Edge

-0.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Sean Manaea · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jared Jones · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.518
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Sean Manaea / Jared Jones announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.518

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSSean Manaea / Jared Jones announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-133	+100	53.3%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-136	+106	54.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-135	+105	54.1%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

1:36 PM · decision fi-79c92dcc6499ff64

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -106

Raw Edge

-1.3%

Effective Edge

-1.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -109

Raw Edge

-2.3%

Effective Edge

-2.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.8% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Shane Bieber · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jesús Luzardo · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.501
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Shane Bieber / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.501

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSShane Bieber / Jesús Luzardo announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-118	-110	50.8%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-122	-109	51.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-110	-124	48.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

1:40 PM · decision fi-f9705ec09736c5c0

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.9%

Fair Odds

+100

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -113

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-4.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.1%

Fair Odds

-100

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -110

Raw Edge

-2.3%

Effective Edge

-3.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -3.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Grayson Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Ryan Gusto · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.499
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Grayson Rodriguez / Ryan Gusto announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.499

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSGrayson Rodriguez / Ryan Gusto announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-115	-110	50.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-118	-112	50.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-113	-113	50.0%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

2:10 PM · decision fi-297687d773352443

NRFI · Grade B

2026 Model Probability

49.7%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Executable Price

FanDuel +130

Raw / Effective Edge

+6.3% / +5.3%

Away starter: Matthew Boyd · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Randy Dobnak · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.497
Grade B: NRFI effective edge 0.0527 after 0.0100 buffer
Matthew Boyd / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

Grade B reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.497

Executable price · PASSGrade B: NRFI effective edge 0.0527 after 0.0100 buffer

Starter status · PASSMatthew Boyd / Randy Dobnak announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+110	-140	44.9%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	+108	-143	45.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	+114	-152	43.7%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+130	-166	41.1%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+115	-145	44.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

2:10 PM · decision fi-474fa2cafb5430ed

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.8%

Fair Odds

-107

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-1.7%

Effective Edge

-2.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.2%

Fair Odds

+107

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +104

Raw Edge

-0.8%

Effective Edge

-1.3%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -1.3% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Joey Cantillo · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Davis Martin · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.518
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Joey Cantillo / Davis Martin announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.518

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJoey Cantillo / Davis Martin announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-120	-105	51.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-121	-109	51.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-132	+104	53.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

2:10 PM · decision fi-59d709c3ea291ecf

YRFI · Grade C

2026 Model Probability

48.5%

Fair Odds

+106

Best Executable Price

BetOnline +125

Raw / Effective Edge

+4.0% / +4.0%

Away starter: Connor Prielipp · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Jacob Misiorowski · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.515
Grade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0403 after 0.0000 buffer
Connor Prielipp / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

Grade C reflects effective edge plus 5 accepted paired book(s); book coverage sets a grade ceiling but does not add another numeric adjustment.

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.515

Executable price · PASSGrade C: YRFI effective edge 0.0403 after 0.0000 buffer

Starter status · PASSConnor Prielipp / Jacob Misiorowski announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+115	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-167	+125	58.5%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-143	+108	55.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-154	+120	57.2%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

2:15 PM · decision fi-3178542a0d4ee28e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.7%

Fair Odds

-103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -102

Raw Edge

+0.2%

Effective Edge

+0.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +0.2% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.3%

Fair Odds

+103

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -120

Raw Edge

-5.2%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Michael Lorenzen · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Michael McGreevy · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top confirmed · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.507
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Michael Lorenzen / Michael McGreevy announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.507

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSMichael Lorenzen / Michael McGreevy announced and matched

Lineup context · PASSconfirmed / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-102	-125	47.6%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-106	-120	48.5%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

2:35 PM · decision fi-7d647884a86d070f

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.6%

Fair Odds

+102

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM -110

Raw Edge

-2.8%

Effective Edge

-4.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.4%

Fair Odds

-102

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -102

Raw Edge

-0.1%

Effective Edge

-2.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -2.1% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Cade Povich · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Kumar Rocker · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.496
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Cade Povich / Kumar Rocker announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.496

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSCade Povich / Kumar Rocker announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-115	49.5%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-118	-112	50.6%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-125	-102	52.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-120	-110	51.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

4:05 PM · decision fi-bbe9907199403e62

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.1%

Fair Odds

-104

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -142

Raw Edge

-7.6%

Effective Edge

-9.1%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -9.1% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.9%

Fair Odds

+104

Best Sportsbook / Price

Caesars +120

Raw Edge

+3.5%

Effective Edge

+2.0%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge +2.0% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Troy Melton · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Logan Webb · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom confirmed · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.511
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Troy Melton / Logan Webb announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.511

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSTroy Melton / Logan Webb announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / confirmed

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-150	+118	56.7%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-152	+114	56.3%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-148	+112	55.9%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-142	+112	55.4%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-150	+120	56.9%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

4:10 PM · decision fi-1f2b61cc1c7dce6e

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

50.2%

Fair Odds

-101

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel +102

Raw Edge

+0.7%

Effective Edge

-0.8%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.8% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

49.8%

Fair Odds

+101

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetOnline -115

Raw Edge

-3.7%

Effective Edge

-5.2%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -5.2% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Justin Wrobleski · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Eduardo Rodriguez · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.502
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Justin Wrobleski / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

4 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.502

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSJustin Wrobleski / Eduardo Rodriguez announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · WARNmissing weather/roof context

Book coverage · PASS4 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-110	-118	49.2%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-115	-115	50.0%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+102	-130	46.7%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-110	-120	49.0%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

4:11 PM · decision fi-6cdcc094f73a4836

NO BET

NRFI evaluation

Model Probability

51.8%

Fair Odds

-108

Best Sportsbook / Price

FanDuel -122

Raw Edge

-3.1%

Effective Edge

-4.6%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -4.6% is below required +3.0%

YRFI evaluation

Model Probability

48.2%

Fair Odds

+108

Best Sportsbook / Price

BetMGM +110

Raw Edge

+0.6%

Effective Edge

-0.9%

Required Threshold

+3.0%

effective edge -0.9% is below required +3.0%

Away starter: Ian Seymour · official_announced · matched

Home starter: Emerson Hancock · official_announced · matched

Lineups: top expected_top_order_proxy · bottom expected_top_order_proxy · current 2026 snapshot

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:29:16.446181Z

2026 P(NRFI) 0.518
neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points
Ian Seymour / Emerson Hancock announced and matched

5 accepted paired book(s). neither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Six explanatory signal layers

Model probability · PASS2026 P(NRFI) 0.518

Executable price · INFOneither side clears 3.0 effective-edge points

Starter status · PASSIan Seymour / Emerson Hancock announced and matched

Lineup context · WARNexpected_top_order_proxy / expected_top_order_proxy

Environment · PASSweather/roof context present

Book coverage · PASS5 accepted paired book(s)

Book shop (5 accepted, 1 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	-140	+110	55.1%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-139	+105	54.4%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	-134	+100	53.4%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	-122	-104	51.9%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	-130	+100	53.1%	ACCEPTED
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

8:20 PM · decision fi-87f81b32d977534c

NO BET

2026 Model Probability

NRFI — / YRFI —

Fair Odds

—

Best Executable Price

— —

Raw / Effective Edge

— / —

Away starter: Cristian Javier · official_announced · matched

Home starter: TBD · probable_unconfirmed · unmatched

Lineups: top team_proxy · bottom team_proxy

Model data: cutoff 2026-08-08 · updated 2026-08-09T16:36:52.668627Z

both starters must be officially announced

4 accepted paired book(s). both starters must be officially announced

Six explanatory signal layers

Decision statusboth starters must be officially announced

Book shop (4 accepted, 2 rejected)

Book	NRFI	YRFI	No-vig NRFI	Status
BetMGM	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetOnline	-102	-130	47.2%	ACCEPTED
FanDuel	+108	-138	45.3%	ACCEPTED
Caesars	+100	-130	46.9%	ACCEPTED
BetRivers	—	—	—	REJECTED INCOMPLETE: missing Over or Under side at point 0.5
Bovada Direct	—	—	—	REJECTED MISSING_TIMESTAMP: both sides require a parseable last_update timestamp

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Ranked by true HR chance first: recent form, matchup, lineup, park/weather, and game context lead; odds/edge are context

HR props parsed: 249 batter line(s)
Market discovery: batter_home_runs=249
Official Odds API MLB HR markets found: batter_home_runs, batter_home_runs_alternate, batter_first_home_run; game HR total/team HR market keys not listed
Batter HR board ranks by estimated HR probability first; market odds/edge are supporting context only
Chance model weights batter power, recent HR form, opposing pitcher, BvP, handedness splits, lineup spot, park/weather, and day/night context
HR probability soft cap refreshed: elite bats still cap near 42%, but the curve separates high-end candidates instead of flattening them at the ceiling

Most Likely HR Hitters

Tier	Player	Team	Game	Time (ET)	Spot	Pitcher	Book	Odds	First HR	HR Chance	Market Implied	Edge	Chance Score	Freshness
Best HR Chance	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	2	Grant Holmes (R)	theScore Bet	+260	-	39.0%	25.8%	+13.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+300	-	38.6%	23.2%	+15.4%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	3	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	38.4%	20.8%	+17.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jordan Walker	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	4	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+375	-	38.0%	19.7%	+18.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	3	Matthew Boyd (L)	theScore Bet	+475	-	37.5%	16.4%	+21.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	3	Michael Lorenzen (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	34.5%	20.8%	+13.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Josh Lowe	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	7	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+550	-	33.9%	14.3%	+19.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	1	Grayson Rodriguez (R)	theScore Bet	+350	-	33.9%	20.8%	+13.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	theScore Bet	+500	-	33.8%	15.6%	+18.2%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nolan Arenado	Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	-	Justin Wrobleski (L)	theScore Bet	+525	-	33.5%	15.0%	+18.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Jackson Chourio	Milwaukee Brewers	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	1	Connor Prielipp (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	33.5%	17.9%	+15.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Mike Trout	Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	2	Ryan Gusto (R)	theScore Bet	+450	-	33.4%	17.1%	+16.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	4	Michael McGreevy (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	33.3%	22.0%	+11.3%	99	-
Strong HR Chance	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	1	Shane Bieber (R)	theScore Bet	+210	-	33.1%	30.1%	+3.1%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Junior Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	-	Emerson Hancock (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	33.0%	26.3%	+6.7%	99	-
HR Chance Watchlist	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	3	Cam Schlittler (R)	theScore Bet	+250	-	33.0%	26.4%	+6.6%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Nathaniel Lowe	Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	4	Davis Martin (R)	theScore Bet	+500	-	33.0%	15.6%	+17.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Miguel Vargas	Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	3	Joey Cantillo (L)	theScore Bet	+425	-	32.6%	17.9%	+14.7%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	3	J.T. Ginn (R)	theScore Bet	+300	-	32.5%	23.2%	+9.3%	99	-
Best HR Chance	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	-	Kumar Rocker (R)	theScore Bet	+325	-	32.4%	22.0%	+10.4%	99	-

Game HR Environments

Tier	Game	Time (ET)	Score	P(1+ HR)	Fair Odds	Top Threats	Environment	Risks
Strong HR Environment	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	100	94.9%	-1845	Ben Rice, Matt Olson, Spencer Jones, Heliot Ramos	Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.18 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 5.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	100	91.5%	-1071	Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, Tyler Soderstrom, Jarren Duran	Fenway Park HR factor 0.95 \| Wind 12 mph WSW -- crosswind, minor effect \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 8.5%	-
Strong HR Environment	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	100	90.8%	-981	Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Hunter Goodman, Willi Castro	Busch Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.3%	-
Strong HR Environment	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	100	90.4%	-941	Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh	Citizens Bank Park HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	100	90.1%	-915	Jac Caglianone, Starling Marte, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ	Kauffman Stadium HR factor 0.93 \| Wind 15 mph OUT (S) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 9.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	100	88.1%	-739	Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, Corey Seager	Globe Life Field HR factor 1.10 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 11.9%	-
Strong HR Environment	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	100	87.4%	-691	Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Kody Clemens	American Family Field HR factor 1.08 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 12.6%	-
Strong HR Environment	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	100	86.9%	-664	Nathaniel Lowe, Miguel Vargas, Braden Montgomery, Colson Montgomery	Guaranteed Rate Field HR factor 1.00 \| Wind 10 mph OUT (SSW) -- run total UP \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.1%	-
Strong HR Environment	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	100	86.1%	-617	Josh Lowe, Kyle Stowers, Mike Trout, Zach Neto	loanDepot park HR factor 0.88 \| No-HR inverse support: P(no HR) 13.9%	-
Watchlist	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	100	85.8%	-603	Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Lowe, Eddy Alvarez, Henry Davis	PNC Park HR factor 0.96	-
Watchlist	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	100	85.6%	-595	Junior Caminero, Julio Rodriguez, Jonathan Aranda, Dominic Canzone	T-Mobile Park HR factor 0.92	-
Watchlist	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	100	85.3%	-580	Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, Nolan Arenado, Corbin Carroll	Chase Field HR factor 1.02	-
Watchlist	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	100	84.4%	-541	Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker	Petco Park HR factor 0.85	-
Watchlist	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	100	83.8%	-518	Dillon Dingler, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Riley Greene	Oracle Park HR factor 0.82	-

▼ HR Chance Detail (8 players)

Best HR Chance Ben Rice — Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees (+260) HR chance 39.0% | edge +13.2%

Power baseline HR/G 0.286, OPS 0.903, ISO 0.290, TB/G 2.04
Statcast: barrel 15.8%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/110.9, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.510
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 3/20 (15%) | Season 31/112 (28%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.29
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0388, xFIP 4.53, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.333, xERA 4.70, whiff 26.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.071, OPS 0.962, ISO 0.321 (310 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.444, xwOBA 0.349 (70 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Shohei Ohtani — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+300) HR chance 38.6% | edge +15.4%

Power baseline HR/G 0.234, OPS 0.945, ISO 0.253, TB/G 2.03
Statcast: barrel 16.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.3/114.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.574
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 25/107 (23%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.24
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0222, xFIP 4.54, K% 16.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.338, xERA 4.86, whiff 20.1%
BvP vs SP: 2 HR, OPS 1.091, K% 25.0% (32 PA)
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.070, OPS 0.962, ISO 0.286 (158 PA)

⚠ Team lineup not posted

Best HR Chance Bryce Harper — Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies (+350) HR chance 38.4% | edge +17.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.212, OPS 0.869, ISO 0.247, TB/G 1.78
Statcast: barrel 11.6%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 90.2/113.5, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.513
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 5/20 (25%) | Season 24/118 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.21
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0440, xFIP 5.00, K% 16.6%
Savant xwOBA 0.404, xERA 7.43, whiff 22.2%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.068, OPS 1.002, ISO 0.323 (310 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.637, xwOBA 0.458 (77 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Jordan Walker — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+375) HR chance 38.0% | edge +18.3%

Power baseline HR/G 0.203, OPS 0.833, ISO 0.209, TB/G 1.92
Statcast: barrel 13.2%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.7/116.6, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.485
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 23/113 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.10 | Season Avg 0.20
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0369, xFIP 4.76, K% 15.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.84, whiff 18.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.045, OPS 0.801, ISO 0.197 (357 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.556, xwOBA 0.380 (50 PA)

Best HR Chance Jac Caglianone — Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals (+475) HR chance 37.5% | edge +21.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.183, OPS 0.800, ISO 0.218, TB/G 1.72
Statcast: barrel 14.7%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 93.1/116.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.513
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 16/109 (15%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.40 | Season Avg 0.18
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0258, xFIP 4.06, K% 20.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.329, xERA 4.57, whiff 24.1%
Batter split vs_lhp: HR/PA 0.042, OPS 0.701, ISO 0.184 (118 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Slider: xSLG 0.747, xwOBA 0.475 (50 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (3 PA)

Best HR Chance Alec Burleson — Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals (+350) HR chance 34.5% | edge +13.7%

Power baseline HR/G 0.155, OPS 0.821, ISO 0.190, TB/G 1.80
Statcast: barrel 11.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.8/111.7, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.533
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 1/5 (20%) | L10 1/10 (10%) | L20 1/20 (5%) | Season 16/116 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.16
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 1/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0369, xFIP 4.76, K% 15.4%
Savant xwOBA 0.366, xERA 5.84, whiff 18.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.044, OPS 0.960, ISO 0.232 (341 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.425, xwOBA 0.322 (79 PA)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (5 PA)

Best HR Chance Josh Lowe — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (+550) HR chance 33.9% | edge +19.6%

Power baseline HR/G 0.227, OPS 0.807, ISO 0.233, TB/G 1.94
Statcast: barrel 12.4%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 91.1/111.1, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.446
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 2/5 (40%) | L10 3/10 (30%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 22/110 (20%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.30 | Season Avg 0.23
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 3/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0258, xFIP 4.15, K% 19.7%
Savant xwOBA 0.324, xERA 4.42, whiff 20.8%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.061, OPS 0.909, ISO 0.283 (343 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Cutter: xSLG 0.362, xwOBA 0.349 (46 PA)

⚠ Batter stats team Pittsburgh Pirates does not match game teams

⚠ Low lineup spot (7)

⚠ Thin BvP sample (2 PA)

Best HR Chance Kyle Stowers — Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins (+350) HR chance 33.9% | edge +13.1%

Power baseline HR/G 0.172, OPS 0.780, ISO 0.216, TB/G 1.70
Statcast: barrel 11.5%, hard-hit 39.0%, EV 92.0/112.8, LA 12.0, xSLG 0.434
Prop history (batter_home_runs Over 0.5): L5 0/5 (0%) | L10 2/10 (20%) | L20 4/20 (20%) | Season 13/93 (14%) | H2H/BVP N/A | Recent Avg 0.20 | Season Avg 0.17
Recent HR trend: Batter HR L10: 2/10 over 0.5; cold exact-market hit rate
Opp SP HR/BF 0.0410, xFIP 5.00, K% 17.9%
Savant xwOBA 0.399, xERA 7.20, whiff 22.3%
Batter split vs_rhp: HR/PA 0.049, OPS 0.851, ISO 0.245 (309 PA)
Batter vs SP top pitch Changeup: xSLG 0.438, xwOBA 0.303 (55 PA)

Lower-Chance / Risk List

Player	Game	Time (ET)	Odds	HR Chance	Why lower
Steven Kwan	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	+1200	0.8%	Low season HR rate
Luke Keaschall	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	+1000	1.0%	Low season HR rate \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal
Andres Gimenez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	+1200	1.3%	Confirmed lineup but player not listed \| Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Weak batter split vs_lhp
Masyn Winn	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	+800	1.4%	Low season HR rate \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Brayan Rocchio	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	+900	1.4%	Low lineup spot (7) \| Cold recent HR form
Taylor Ward	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	+475	1.5%	Team lineup not posted \| Thin BvP sample (3 PA) \| Cold recent HR form
Brett Baty	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	+700	1.6%	Low lineup spot (8) \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| Weak batter split vs_rhp \| Thin BvP sample (2 PA)
Ernie Clement	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	+1000	1.7%	Elite strikeout pitcher \| Elite contact-quality suppressor \| High-whiff arsenal \| Thin BvP sample (5 PA)
Jung Hoo Lee	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	+1100	1.7%	Elite contact-quality suppressor
Daulton Varsho	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	+500	1.8%	Team lineup not posted \| Pitcher season stats unavailable \| Cold recent HR form

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

Poisson model — P(no HR)≥20% or P(under 1.5 HR)≥52.2% for a model signal

Game	Time (ET)	Home SP	Away SP	Park HR	P(No HR)	P(U 1.5)	DK Implied	Edge
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	4:05 PM	Logan Webb	Troy Melton	0.82	16.2%	45.6%	12.2%	+4.0%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	8:20 PM	None	Cristian Javier	0.85	15.6%	44.6%	-	+0.0%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	4:10 PM	Eduardo Rodriguez	Justin Wrobleski	1.02	14.7%	42.9%	-	+0.0%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	4:11 PM	Emerson Hancock	Ian Seymour	0.92	14.4%	42.3%	-	+0.0%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	1:35 PM	Jared Jones	Sean Manaea	0.96	14.2%	42.0%	9.2%	+5.1%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	1:40 PM	Ryan Gusto	Grayson Rodriguez	0.88	13.9%	41.4%	9.7%	+4.3%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	2:10 PM	Davis Martin	Joey Cantillo	1.00	13.1%	39.7%	8.3%	+4.8%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	2:10 PM	Jacob Misiorowski	Connor Prielipp	1.08	12.6%	38.8%	9.9%	+2.7%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	2:35 PM	Kumar Rocker	Cade Povich	1.10	11.9%	37.3%	8.8%	+3.1%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	2:10 PM	Randy Dobnak	Matthew Boyd	0.93	9.9%	32.7%	6.0%	+3.9%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	1:36 PM	Jesús Luzardo	Shane Bieber	1.10	9.6%	32.1%	7.5%	+2.1%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	2:15 PM	Michael McGreevy	Michael Lorenzen	0.93	9.3%	31.3%	7.2%	+2.1%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	1:35 PM	Erik Miller	J.T. Ginn	0.95	8.5%	29.5%	9.3%	-0.8%
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	1:35 PM	Cam Schlittler	Grant Holmes	1.18	5.1%	20.4%	3.5%	+1.7%

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

29 pitcher(s) with public-data pitch-quality diagnostics

Pitcher	Game	Overall	Whiff	Contact	Arsenal	Top Pitch	Notes / Data Gaps
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	90.7	93.2	100.0	5	Curveball (46% whiff, 10% usage)	Savant whiff 38.5%, put-away 32.5%, xwOBA 0.215, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	70.3	71.2	73.5	4	Sweeper (48% whiff, 38% usage)	Savant whiff 31.8%, put-away 23.9%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Erik Miller	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	67.7	71.9	67.5	4	Slider (54% whiff, 41% usage)	Savant whiff 33.4%, put-away 21.3%, xwOBA 0.280, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	66.0	63.3	73.5	5	4-Seam Fastball (34% whiff, 44% usage)	Savant whiff 28.0%, put-away 23.6%, xwOBA 0.268, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	65.1	68.5	65.5	4	Slider (38% whiff, 35% usage)	Savant whiff 30.6%, put-away 23.7%, xwOBA 0.284, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	60.0	55.9	70.0	6	Split-Finger (34% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 25.8%, put-away 20.6%, xwOBA 0.275, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	59.7	60.8	62.5	7	Changeup (39% whiff, 31% usage)	Savant whiff 28.4%, put-away 20.3%, xwOBA 0.290, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	58.4	64.7	53.0	5	Changeup (41% whiff, 26% usage)	Savant whiff 29.6%, put-away 21.9%, xwOBA 0.309, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	54.6	59.5	53.5	5	Changeup (36% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 26.9%, put-away 22.0%, xwOBA 0.308, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	50.2	48.6	52.0	5	Curveball (38% whiff, 17% usage)	Savant whiff 23.3%, put-away 18.2%, xwOBA 0.311, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	50.2	50.6	51.0	6	Sweeper (37% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.5%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.313, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	49.2	54.5	45.0	6	Slider (41% whiff, 39% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 18.3%, xwOBA 0.325, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	49.1	44.2	56.0	5	Changeup (30% whiff, 25% usage)	Savant whiff 21.0%, put-away 18.5%, xwOBA 0.303, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Cade Povich	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	47.9	53.4	41.0	5	Curveball (39% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 26.6%, put-away 16.5%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	46.1	51.4	41.0	6	Slider (39% whiff, 36% usage)	Savant whiff 26.2%, put-away 15.3%, xwOBA 0.333, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	45.9	48.2	43.0	5	Slider (43% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 16.4%, xwOBA 0.329, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	45.6	49.0	42.5	6	Curveball (40% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 24.1%, put-away 17.2%, xwOBA 0.330, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	45.2	51.5	37.0	5	Sweeper (42% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 25.2%, put-away 17.5%, xwOBA 0.341, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	44.8	44.5	45.5	7	Cutter (27% whiff, 14% usage)	Savant whiff 20.8%, put-away 19.2%, xwOBA 0.324, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	44.6	52.5	34.5	7	Changeup (29% whiff, 16% usage)	Savant whiff 27.3%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.346, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	44.2	44.8	42.0	5	Sweeper (31% whiff, 30% usage)	Savant whiff 21.6%, put-away 18.0%, xwOBA 0.331, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	43.9	39.6	48.5	5	Slider (25% whiff, 21% usage)	Savant whiff 20.7%, put-away 14.6%, xwOBA 0.318, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	41.8	40.2	44.0	7	4-Seam Fastball (23% whiff, 49% usage)	Savant whiff 19.4%, put-away 17.7%, xwOBA 0.327, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	38.2	39.2	38.5	5	Changeup (24% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 20.1%, put-away 15.2%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	34.7	30.9	38.5	5	Sweeper (35% whiff, 27% usage)	Savant whiff 18.7%, put-away 9.9%, xwOBA 0.338, arsenal coverage 5 pitch type(s)
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	33.5	36.2	24.5	7	Changeup (30% whiff, 20% usage)	Savant whiff 18.8%, put-away 14.9%, xwOBA 0.366, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	31.8	36.2	27.5	7	Curveball (26% whiff, 12% usage)	Savant whiff 18.9%, put-away 14.7%, xwOBA 0.360, arsenal coverage 7 pitch type(s)
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	27.6	42.0	8.0	4	Changeup (36% whiff, 24% usage)	Savant whiff 22.3%, put-away 13.7%, xwOBA 0.399, arsenal coverage 4 pitch type(s)
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	24.6	42.3	5.5	6	Slider (37% whiff, 11% usage)	Savant whiff 22.2%, put-away 14.3%, xwOBA 0.404, arsenal coverage 6 pitch type(s)

Diagnostic only. This is a free Savant-derived pitch-quality layer, not Pitcher List PLV/PLA, and it does not change recommendations.

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

29 starter assessment(s) emitted by Pitcher Engine

Pitcher	Team	Hand	Season K%	Recent IP	Season IP	K IP	Pitch Ct	Leash	Savant	Contact	HR Vuln	Quality	Flags / Notes
Eduardo Rodriguez	Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	L	15.7%	5.5	5.9	5.8	92	normal	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 9.8%
J.T. Ginn	Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	R	22.6%	5.2	5.4	5.4	87	normal	full	53.50	46.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Grant Holmes	Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees	R	19.5%	5.0	5.0	5.0	84	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.9%
Cade Povich	Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers	L	20.1%	4.9	4.9	5.3	82	short	full	41.00	59.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Erik Miller	Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	L	28.6%	1.2	-	4.8	20	short	full	67.50	32.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.2 IP/start
Matthew Boyd	Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals	L	18.6%	6.5	5.6	5.8	109	deep	full	43.00	57.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Davis Martin	Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	R	18.7%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	42.50	57.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.6%
Brady Singer	Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals	R	19.5%	4.9	5.2	5.1	82	short	full	37.00	63.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.9 IP/start
Joey Cantillo	Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	L	27.0%	4.4	4.9	4.8	74	short	full	53.00	47.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.4 IP/start
Michael Lorenzen	Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals	R	14.3%	4.2	4.6	4.5	70	short	full	24.50	75.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.2 IP/start
Troy Melton	Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants	R	24.1%	5.9	6.2	6.1	99	normal	full	70.00	30.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cristian Javier	Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres	R	21.5%	3.2	3.7	4.4	54	short	full	34.50	65.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.2 IP/start
Randy Dobnak	Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs	R	16.1%	5.3	5.3	5.5	89	normal	full	38.50	61.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.8%
Grayson Rodriguez	Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins	R	18.4%	5.0	4.6	4.7	84	short	full	8.00	92.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start
Justin Wrobleski	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	L	22.9%	6.0	6.3	6.2	101	deep	full	44.00	56.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.3%
Ryan Gusto	Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels	R	20.9%	3.6	4.0	4.0	60	short	full	45.50	54.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 3.6 IP/start
Jacob Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	R	42.9%	5.6	6.0	6.0	94	normal	full	100.00	0.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Connor Prielipp	Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers	L	24.4%	5.5	5.2	5.2	92	normal	full	52.00	48.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.7%
Sean Manaea	New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates	L	21.9%	5.8	5.5	6.0	97	normal	full	42.00	58.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Cam Schlittler	New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves	R	32.4%	5.3	5.8	6.0	89	normal	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Jesús Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays	L	29.4%	6.6	5.9	6.1	111	deep	full	73.50	26.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	low-K contact opponent 19.6%
Jared Jones	Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	R	27.2%	5.4	4.7	4.8	91	normal	full	65.50	34.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Logan Webb	San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers	R	19.2%	6.2	6.2	6.2	104	deep	full	56.00	44.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Emerson Hancock	Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	R	22.1%	5.0	5.5	5.4	84	short	full	51.00	49.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 5.0 IP/start, low-K contact opponent 19.1%
Michael McGreevy	St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies	R	17.5%	4.7	5.5	5.3	79	short	full	27.50	72.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.7 IP/start
Ian Seymour	Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners	L	28.2%	4.5	4.3	4.6	76	short	full	62.50	37.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 4.5 IP/start
Kumar Rocker	Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles	R	22.0%	5.3	5.0	5.1	89	normal	full	45.00	55.00	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	patient opponent BB% 10.3%
Shane Bieber	Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies	R	19.4%	5.3	4.6	4.9	89	normal	full	5.50	94.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	-
Brad Lord	Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds	R	21.6%	1.5	2.3	4.6	25	short	full	48.50	51.50	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	recent leash 1.5 IP/start, patient opponent BB% 9.7%

Diagnostics only. These values are exposed for review and do not change recommendations yet.

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

13/13 candidate(s) held from actionable output

Pitcher	Side	Game	Line	Proj	Gap	Edge / DIFF%	Grade	Rec	Status	Leash	K IP	Pitch Ct	Quality	Gate Reason
Jacob Misiorowski	Jacob Misiorowski Over	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	17.5	20.7	3.2	18.2%	B	GOOD_ADD	research	normal	6.0	94	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Market status RESEARCH: Pitcher Outs research-stage -- downgraded to monitor/derisk
Michael McGreevy	Michael McGreevy Under	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	17.5	14.9	-2.6	14.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.3	79	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 14.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.61 <= 3 min
Emerson Hancock	Emerson Hancock Under	Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	17.5	15.4	-2.1	12.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	short	5.4	84	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 12.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5 clears, but raw gap -2.14 <= 3 min
Jesus Luzardo	Jesus Luzardo Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min
Jesús Luzardo	Jesús Luzardo Over	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	18.5	20.6	2.1	11.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.1	111	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: diff_pct 11.2% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5 clears, but raw gap +2.06 <= 3 min
Troy Melton	Troy Melton Over	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	17.5	19.1	1.6	9.2%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.1	99	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 9.2% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Cam Schlittler	Cam Schlittler Over	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	17.5	19.0	1.5	8.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	89	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.8% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Sean Manaea	Sean Manaea Under	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	17.5	16.0	-1.5	8.7%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	6.0	97	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 8.7% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Logan Webb	Logan Webb Over	Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	18.5	19.9	1.4	7.8%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	104	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.8% vs 10% min using selected line 18.5
Justin Wrobleski	Justin Wrobleski Over	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	18.7	1.2	7.1%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	deep	6.2	101	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 7.1% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Eduardo Rodriguez	Eduardo Rodriguez Under	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	17.5	16.3	-1.2	6.9%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	normal	5.8	92	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 6.9% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matt Boyd	Matt Boyd Under	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	17.0	-0.5	3.0%	C	ALT_DERISK	research	-	-	-	-	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.0% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5
Matthew Boyd	Matthew Boyd Over	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	17.5	18.1	0.6	3.6%	B	MONITOR	research	deep	5.8	109	season+recent+savant+savant_quality+hand	Weak Model Edge: Insufficient model edge — diff_pct 3.6% vs 10% min using selected line 17.5

QC summary only. Pitcher Outs remains research-only until the assessment gate is validated.

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

206 HRR component candidate(s) emitted by Batter Engine | showing top 25 by component raw gap

Player	Game	Research Side	Component Proj	H	R	RBI	Current	Uncertainty	Support	Flags
Jordan Walker	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.85	1.18	0.70	0.96	2.90 / Over	0.30	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jake McCarthy	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.73	1.24	0.74	0.75	2.61 / Over	0.30	season_games=102,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Otto Lopez	Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	Over 1.5	2.69	1.42	0.68	0.60	2.76 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ildemaro Vargas	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.65	1.38	0.60	0.66	2.33 / Over	0.64	exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates, missing_pitcher_assessment
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.64	1.14	0.84	0.66	2.34 / Over	0.30	season_games=94,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.58	1.06	0.78	0.74	2.27 / Over	0.30	season_games=117,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ben Rice	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.57	1.05	0.80	0.71	2.52 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Willson Contreras	Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	Over 1.5	2.57	1.02	0.65	0.89	2.27 / Over	0.30	season_games=106,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Starling Marte	Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	Over 1.5	2.55	1.28	0.60	0.66	2.24 / Over	0.59	exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_player_component_rates
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.53	1.00	0.71	0.81	2.46 / Over	0.30	season_games=107,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Luis Arraez	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.52	1.42	0.54	0.56	2.77 / Over	0.30	season_games=110,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Trea Turner	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.50	1.18	0.87	0.46	2.68 / Over	0.30	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Jackson Chourio	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.50	1.25	0.74	0.50	2.42 / Over	0.30	season_games=83,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryce Harper	Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	Over 1.5	2.48	1.01	0.68	0.80	2.79 / Over	0.30	season_games=118,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Brice Turang	Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	Over 1.5	2.44	1.15	0.70	0.59	2.48 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
JJ Wetherholt	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.42	1.09	0.87	0.45	2.30 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Michael Harris II	Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	Over 1.5	2.39	1.11	0.57	0.71	2.12 / Over	0.30	season_games=111,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Miguel Vargas	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.38	0.92	0.74	0.72	2.33 / Over	0.30	season_games=115,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Bryan Reynolds	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.37	1.05	0.70	0.61	2.40 / Over	0.30	season_games=119,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.36	1.06	0.60	0.70	2.55 / Over	0.35	season_games=116,exact_hrr_l10,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused, lineup_not_confirmed
TJ Rumfield	Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	Over 1.5	2.36	1.15	0.52	0.69	2.29 / Over	0.30	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Nick Gonzales	New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	Over 1.5	2.33	1.23	0.56	0.53	2.32 / Over	0.30	season_games=113,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Ketel Marte	Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	Over 1.5	2.31	1.00	0.60	0.71	2.24 / Over	0.30	season_games=112,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Chase DeLauter	Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	Over 1.5	2.31	1.15	0.56	0.60	2.20 / Over	0.30	season_games=100,exact_hrr_l10,lineup,pitcher_assessment	research_only_hrr_paused
Christian Walker	Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	Over 1.5	2.27	0.93	0.60	0.74	2.04 / Over	0.35	season_games=114,exact_hrr_l10,lineup	research_only_hrr_paused, missing_pitcher_assessment

Diagnostics only. HRR remains paused; these component projections are not used for recommendations.

REFERENCE GUIDE

Column definitions, model notes, and sizing rules

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Every bet candidate runs through the Sacboyz Signals Engine before it appears in the report. The board separates model grade, betting tier, and handling notes so a strong signal, a derisked angle, and a watchlist item are easy to tell apart.

Section	What it shows
Today's Signal Board	Grade A and Grade B signals with full card detail: Signal Breakdown, Signal Drivers & Flags, line context, risk notes, and market context.
Ranked Signals	Compact view of the strongest surfaced signals plus a link to the full audit.
Market Confidence	Settled tracker performance by market, including season and recent windows used to support confidence tiers.
Signal Promotion Criteria	The concrete blockers a market must clear before moving from paused to research, watch, or trusted.
Signal Source Matrix	Runtime source of truth for whether a signal is active, held, research-only, or configuration-needed.
Data Readiness	Input availability for the run, including lineups, active-roster hitter context, weather, BVP, pitch-type data, market health, and player context.
Today's Slate	Selected approved-book lines for all games, with DraftKings preferred and fallback sources shown.
Detail Sections	Market detail, diagnostics, and research sections below Today's Signal Board.

Signal Breakdown

Each layer returns Supports, Mixed, Opposes, or No Data. No Data is treated as unavailable context rather than an automatic penalty.

Layer	What it evaluates	Supports when
Line Fit	Line size, batter opportunity, run-line cushion	The available line falls within a model-friendly range.
Model Edge	Projection vs selected/displayed sportsbook line	Edge is at or above the threshold for that market type.
Market Alignment	Blended market direction and consensus lean across available books	The market agrees with the model side.
Matchup	Park factor, weather, opponent quality, and handedness/split context	Context is neutral or favorable for the signal side.
Availability	Lineup spot, injury flags, role, workload, and opportunity	Expected opportunity is intact and no major availability risk is present.
Game Context	Run environment, venue, weather, and script conditions	Game conditions support the signal direction.

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Grade	Model strength	Tier	Meaning
A	Strongest model grade	Best Signal	Core playable recommendation when model strength and market posture align.
B	Strong model grade with caveats	Add Signal	Playable supporting recommendation.
C	Thin or lower-confidence model grade	No-Play	Audited but not a standard playable recommendation.
D	Weak signal	No-Play	Skip unless another trusted process overrides it.
F	Strong evidence against the evaluated side	Fade Signal	Consider whether the opposite side is more attractive.

Grades and recommendation tiers are related but separate: grade describes model strength, while tier describes betting posture.

Final Signals

Final Signals combine model grade with market confidence and handling modifiers. Featured is placement, not a separate strength tier.

Display	Meaning
⭐ Featured	Special placement for the strongest qualifying signal on the board.
✅ Best Signal	Trusted market with an A-grade model signal.
Watch Signal	Interesting setup that should be monitored or shopped before betting.
Research Only	Experimental or validation-stage output; useful for diagnostics but not a standard bet recommendation.
Paused	Market is intentionally withheld or unavailable for normal betting posture.

Contradiction Flags ⚡

When two recommended plays on the same game send opposing run-environment signals, a ⚡ contradiction flag is added to both plays. The bet is not removed — it is flagged so you can decide consciously whether the conflict makes sense.

Pattern	Why it conflicts
Total Over + NRFI	High-run game expectation vs no runs in the 1st inning
Total Under + YRFI	Low-run game expectation vs runs scoring in the 1st
K Prop Over + YRFI	Pitcher dominates yet run scores early
Batter Overs + Total Under	Player production expected but game total is low
Outs Over + K Under (same SP)	Long outing projected but few strikeouts — projection inconsistency

API Quota Bar

Element	Meaning
Progress bar	Visual fill of monthly Odds API usage
used / total	Requests consumed vs. your monthly cap — each run costs ~1 request per game (combined market fetch)

Today's Slate

Column	Meaning
Away ML / Home ML	Selected approved-book moneyline. −150 = bet $150 to win $100 • +130 = bet $100 to win $130
Away RL / Home RL	Run line (always ±1.5) with its odds. −1.5(−110) = team must win by 2+
Total	Over/Under line (e.g. O/U 8.5)
Sources	The sportsbook supplying each displayed ML, run-line, and total quote.
Con ML	Consensus moneyline direction — which side the majority of other books (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, etc.) favor

Game Bets — Column Definitions

Column	Meaning
Grade	Signal grade (A-D), driven by the Signal Breakdown scoring system. A/B rows are highlighted.
Type	Moneyline, Run Line, Total Over/Under, F5 ML, F5 Total
Source / Odds	The selected approved sportsbook and its price for that side
Implied	Selected sportsbook implied probability after vig removal
Model	Win probability our model calculates independently
Edge	Model% − Implied%. Min 15% to surface a game bet.
EV/$100	Expected profit per $100 wagered: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × $100)
Books	Number of consensus books with data for this market (ML/RL: directional lean; Total: line coverage). Three or more books is full support, two books is limited context, fewer than two means Market Alignment opposes.

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

The model is asking one question: does the selected approved sportsbook have the wrong price on this game?

It independently calculates how likely each team is to win by grading two things: how good is today's starting pitcher (xFIP vs league average) and how good is the opposing lineup (wRC+ vs league average). It adds a small home-field bonus, blends in the pitcher's last 5 starts (35% weight), then converts the result to a win probability. That probability is compared to what the selected sportsbook implies. If the gap is ≥15%, it surfaces as a bet.

The model caps at ~68–70% win probability even in extreme mismatches — baseball is unpredictable and overconfident models lose money. Missing data automatically reduces confidence and bet sizing.

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

For every game the model builds a score differential from three inputs, then converts it to a win probability using a logistic (S-curve) function. Here is each step:

Step	What it calculates	Data source	Weight
1. Pitching edge	How much better or worse each SP is vs. the league-average xFIP of 4.20. `home_pitch = (4.20 − home_xFIP) / 4.20` `pitch_edge = home_pitch − away_pitch` A positive number means the home SP is above average relative to the away SP.	FanGraphs xFIP (direct API call) — the best early-season ERA predictor because it removes defense and luck	50%
2. Offense edge	How much stronger or weaker each lineup is vs. the league-average wRC+ of 100. `home_bat = (home_wRC+ − 100) / 100` `off_edge = home_bat − away_bat` A team with wRC+ 110 contributes +0.10; one at 90 contributes −0.10.	MLB Stats API team batting — OPS converted to wRC+ via `(OPS / 0.720) × 100`	35%
3. Home field	Fixed constant added to the home team's side every game.	Historical MLB average home-field effect	+4%
4. Score diff	`score_diff = 0.50 × pitch_edge + 0.35 × off_edge + 0.04`	Combined signal driving the probability below
5. Win probability	`home_win_prob = logistic(1.5 × score_diff)` The logistic scale of 1.5 keeps the model from being overconfident — even an extreme mismatch caps out around 68–70%.	Standard logistic sigmoid: `1 / (1 + e^−x)`

Recent Form Blending

Season stats are stable but slow to react. Recent form can signal a pitcher heating up or falling apart. The model blends both:

Source	Weight	Stats blended
Season-to-date (FanGraphs)	65%	xFIP, ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9
Last 5 starts (MLB Stats API game logs)	35%	ERA, WHIP, K%, K/9 — computed from raw game log totals

xFIP is season-only (requires full-season HR data to normalize). ERA trend from recent starts adjusts the blended ERA implicitly.

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

For Over/Under bets the model projects a total runs scored using a similar framework:

Step	Calculation
Base	2 × 4.5 league-average runs/game = 9.0
SP factor	Average of (home xFIP / 4.20) and (away xFIP / 4.20). Uses xFIP for consistency with the win-probability model — ERA includes luck and inflates totals for pitchers who got unlucky.
Offense factor	Average of (home wRC+ / 100) and (away wRC+ / 100).
Raw total	`9.0 × (0.60 × SP factor + 0.40 × off_factor)`
Park adjustment	Raw total × venue run factor (e.g. Coors 1.32, Oracle Park 0.92). Blended at 60% weight: `0.40 × raw + 0.60 × park_adjusted`

Weather adjustments layer on top: headwind (N/NW/NE) × 0.93 on run total • tailwind (S/SW/SE) × 1.08 • cold (≤45°F) × 0.96

Signal Usage Matrix

The Diagnostic vs Recommendation Impact table near the top of the report is the source of truth for whether each market or diagnostic layer affects recommendations, only gates recommendations, is research-only, or needs configuration. A signal being visible in diagnostics does not automatically mean it changes grades or picks.

Usage type	Meaning
Active recommendation market	Trusted or watch-stage markets can appear in ranked signals according to the Sacboyz Signals Engine and market trust rules.
Held / gated market	Research markets can be scored for audit, but are held from actionable output until validation clears.
Shadow research	Paused markets such as HRR component research emit diagnostics only; they do not create recommendations.
Diagnostic-only source	Context layers such as player splits and AI review explain the run but do not change thresholds, grades, or tracker saves unless a future validation PR explicitly activates them.

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Component	Purpose	Recommendation impact today
PitcherAssessment	Starter-level hand, K%, innings, estimated pitch count, leash risk, Savant support, contact suppression, HR vulnerability, and data gaps.	Feeds pitcher and batter context. It is visible in diagnostics; individual fields affect picks only where the engine explicitly consumes them.
Savant Pitch Quality	Free public-data pitch-quality scores built from Savant summary and arsenal fields: whiff, put-away, xwOBA, run value, pitch mix depth, and top pitch.	Diagnostic-only. It replaces the retired premium PLV path for review visibility but does not change recommendations.
Pitcher Outs Research Gate	Shows pitcher outs candidates, projected gap, leash, expected K innings, pitch count, assessment quality, and hold reason.	Research/held. Pitcher Outs remains out of actionable output until the gate validates.
HRR Component Research	Breaks Batter H+R+RBI into hit, run, and RBI components with uncertainty and support notes.	Shadow-only. HRR remains paused and cannot become actionable from the old composite threshold.
Player Context	Home/away, day/night, recent-return, role, usage, workload diagnostics, and pre-lineup active-roster hitter pools.	Missing split data is neutral. Real role, injury, or workload concerns may surface as risk context.
AI Review	Optional post-run review of recent settled results and model behavior.	Advisory only. It cannot change picks, thresholds, tracker saves, or market status.

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Premium Pitcher List PLV/PLA enrichment is intentionally retired from daily output because no free live 2026 aggregate export is available. The optional loader remains for local experiments only. The replacement path is the Savant Pitch Quality diagnostic section, which uses public Statcast/Savant inputs.

Data Readiness States

State	Impact	How to read it
READY	Available	The input loaded and is available to the relevant model or diagnostic section.
LATE DATA	Non-blocking	The feed usually appears later on game day, such as confirmed lineups or home-plate umpires.
PARTIAL	Non-blocking	The source returned usable rows, but one sub-market or optional slice is missing. Available pieces still support the run.
MARKET UNAVAILABLE	Non-blocking	The odds/source returned no usable rows for that market in this run. Other markets can still run normally.
SOURCE MISSING	Non-blocking unless marked otherwise	The configured source is unavailable, sparse, or missing. Treat as a data gap, not an automatic bet risk.
LIMITED	Non-blocking	The run uses a fallback, skips an optional layer, or intentionally keeps a diagnostic isolated.
BLOCKING	Action needed	A core source failed in a way that can invalidate a major part of the run, such as all props being empty.

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

The model does not wait for confirmed batting orders to use hitter-pool context. Before official lineups post, it builds an active-roster view from known team rosters and player IDs, including batter handedness and a PA-weighted active-roster K% profile for K props. Once confirmed lineups post, lineup order, top-six K%, and confirmed platoon mix replace the roster estimate.

State	How it is used
Pre-lineup	Active-roster batter handedness and active-roster K% feed K-prop opponent context. The report labels lineup order as late data, not missing data.
Confirmed lineup	Exact batting order upgrades the context with lineup K%, top-six K%, projected PA, and confirmed platoon concentration gates.
No roster coverage	The model falls back to team-level K%, handedness splits, recent team batting, BVP, and pitch-type matchup data.

Report Artifacts

Artifact	Use it for
Main HTML report	Daily human review: ranked plays, trust tiers, data readiness, diagnostics, and reference guide.
Full audit HTML	Candidate-level debugging across best signals, add signals, no-play results, fade signals, and research holds.
Audit JSON	Machine-readable evidence for settled review, AI review, market health, pitcher assessments, HR likelihood, HRR research, and pitcher outs gate candidates.
Performance report	Settled tracker analysis by grade, market, odds band, top-pick status, and prop/game grouping.
Tracker CSV	Single source for settled W/L/P, units, grades, bet type, final signal, and historical performance windows.

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Field	Meaning
2026 Model Probability	The stored game probability from the promoted 2026 half-inning artifact. YRFI is always exactly one minus NRFI before display rounding.
Fair Odds	The model probability expressed as American odds; it is not an executable sportsbook price.
Raw / Effective Edge	Raw edge compares model probability with the selected book's break-even probability. Effective edge subtracts the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Starter and lineup status	Starter announcement and player matching are separate gates. Projected or proxy lineups remain visible and add only the disclosed uncertainty buffer.
Book coverage	Accepted paired quotes set the grade ceiling. Rejected, stale, incomplete, or outlier quotes remain visible in the shop table.
Signal layers	Six explanatory checks describe model, price, starter, lineup, environment, and coverage context. They never alter probability, edge, or grade.

Sizing Guide

Label	Edge Required	Suggested Unit Size
FULL	≥20%	Full unit
HALF	≥15%	Half unit
QRTR	≥15%	Quarter unit (data quality cap)
(none)	<15%	No bet — below threshold

Confidence Guide

Label	What it means
HIGH	Both pitchers and both offenses have full stat profiles
MED	One or more data sources are missing or incomplete
LOW	Model running mostly on league averages — proceed with caution

Model Notes

Term	Definition
xFIP	Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — ERA predictor that strips out defense and luck. Lower = better pitcher. League avg ~4.20
wRC+	Weighted Runs Created Plus — offensive quality. 100 = league average. 115+ = above average. Estimated from team OPS via MLB Stats API
Recent form	Last 5 starts blended at 35% weight, season stats at 65%
Park factor	Venue run/HR factor applied to expected total. Coors Field ~1.32, Oracle Park ~0.92
Edge	Model win probability minus the book's implied probability (after vig removal)
EV/$100	Expected value: (win_prob × profit) − (loss_prob × stake)
F5 bets	First 5 innings — pitching weight raised to 65% (starters matter more), scaled to 4.5/9.0 IP
DK note	The "Bet on DK" button opens DraftKings' MLB section. Game-specific deep links require DK's partner event ID, not included in the free Odds API tier

Disclaimer: For informational and research purposes only. Bet responsibly. Always verify probable pitchers and lineups before placing any bet. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.

MLB Betting Analyzer

PERFORMANCE

Recent (14d)

All-time

Pending Bets

Recent Grade A Settled

MARKET TRUST TIERS

MARKET PROMOTION CRITERIA

DIAGNOSTIC VS RECOMMENDATION IMPACT

DATA READINESS

TODAY'S SLATE

Ranked Signals

Grade A Best Signals — 2 play(s)

Today's Signal Board

Best Signals (Grade A)

GAME BETS — DETAIL

F5 BETS — DETAIL

FIRST INNING — NRFI / YRFI

HR LIKELIHOOD MODEL

Most Likely HR Hitters

Game HR Environments

Lower-Chance / Risk List

NO-HR MODEL — POISSON GAME ANALYSIS

SAVANT PITCH QUALITY DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER ASSESSMENT DIAGNOSTICS

PITCHER OUTS RESEARCH GATE

HRR COMPONENT RESEARCH

REFERENCE GUIDE

Sacboyz Signals Guide

Signal Breakdown

Grades & Recommendation Tiers

Final Signals

Contradiction Flags ⚡

API Quota Bar

Today's Slate

Game Bets — Column Definitions

How the Model Works — The Simple Version

How the Model Works — Win Probability (Technical)

Recent Form Blending

How the Model Works — Expected Run Total

Signal Usage Matrix

Runtime Diagnostic Components

Premium Pitcher List PLV

Data Readiness States

Pre-Lineup Hitter Context

Report Artifacts

First Inning — NRFI / YRFI

Sizing Guide

Confidence Guide

Model Notes